Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Does Age Matter? Semantic Memory in Healthy Young and Elderly Adults

Background: Semantic memory processes have been well described in literature. However, the available findings are mostly based on relatively young subjects and concrete word material (e.g. tree). Comparatively little information exists about semantic memory for abstract words (e.g. mind) and possible age related changes in semantic retrieval. In this respect, we developed a paradigm that is useful to investigate the implicit (i.e. attentionindependent) access to concrete and abstract semantic memory. These processes were then compared between young and elderly healthy subjects. Methods: A well established tool for investigating semantic memory processes is the semantic priming paradigm, which consists both of semantically unrelated and related word pairs. In our behavioral task these noun-noun word pairs were further divided into concrete, abstract and matched pronounceable non-word conditions. With this premise, the young and elderly participants performed a lexical decision task: they were asked to press a choice of two buttons as an indication for whether the word pair contained a non-word or not. In order to minimize controlled (i.e. attention-dependent) retrieval strategies, a short stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of 150ms was set. Reaction time (RT) changes and accuracy to related and unrelated words (priming effect) in the abstract vs. concrete condition (concreteness effect) were the dependent variables of interest. Results and Discussion: Statistical analysis confirmed both a significant priming effect (i.e. shorter RTs in semantically related compared to unrelated words) and a concreteness effect (i.e. RT decrease for concrete compared to abstract words) in the young and elderly subjects. There was no age difference in accuracy. The only age effect was a commonly known general slowing in RT over all conditions. In conclusion, age is not a critical factor in the implicit access to abstract and concrete semantic memory.

Obesity Trends and Body Mass Index Changes After Starting Antiretroviral Treatment: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND The factors that contribute to increasing obesity rates in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons and to body mass index (BMI) increase that typically occurs after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) are incompletely characterized. METHODS We describe BMI trends in the entire Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) population and investigate the effects of demographics, HIV-related factors, and ART on BMI change in participants with data available before and 4 years after first starting ART. RESULTS In the SHCS, overweight/obesity prevalence increased from 13% in 1990 (n = 1641) to 38% in 2012 (n = 8150). In the participants starting ART (n = 1601), mean BMI increase was 0.92 kg/m(2) per year (95% confidence interval, .83-1.0) during year 0-1 and 0.31 kg/m(2) per year (0.29-0.34) during years 1-4. In multivariable analyses, annualized BMI change during year 0-1 was associated with older age (0.15 [0.06-0.24] kg/m(2)) and CD4 nadir <199 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P < .001). Annualized BMI change during years 1-4 was associated with CD4 nadir <100 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P = .001) and black compared to white ethnicity (0.28 [0.16-0.37] kg/m(2)). Individual ART combinations differed little in their contribution to BMI change. CONCLUSIONS Increasing obesity rates in the SHCS over time occurred at the same time as aging of the SHCS population, demographic changes, earlier ART start, and increasingly widespread ART coverage. Body mass index increase after ART start was typically biphasic, the BMI increase in year 0-1 being as large as the increase in years 1-4 combined. The effect of ART regimen on BMI change was limited.

Optical properties of rabbit brain in the red and near-infrared: changes observed under in vivo, postmortem, frozen, and formalin-fixated conditions.

The outcome of light-based therapeutic approaches depends on light propagation in biological tissues, which is governed by their optical properties. The objective of this study was to quantify optical properties of brain tissue in vivo and postmortem and assess changes due to tissue handling postmortem. The study was carried out on eight female New Zealand white rabbits. The local fluence rate was measured in the VIS/NIR range in the brain in vivo, just postmortem, and after six weeks’ storage of the head at −20∘C or in 10% formaldehyde solution. Only minimal changes in the effective attenuation coefficient μeff were observed for two methods of sacrifice, exsanguination or injection of KCl. Under all tissue conditions, μeff decreased with increasing wavelengths. After long-term storage for six weeks at −20∘C, μeff decreased, on average, by 15 to 25% at all wavelengths, while it increased by 5 to 15% at all wavelengths after storage in formaldehyde. We demonstrated that μeff was not very sensitive to the method of animal sacrifice, that tissue freezing significantly altered tissue optical properties, and that formalin fixation might affect the tissue’s optical properties.

Patient-rated Outcomes of Lumbar Fusion in Patients with Degenerative Disease of the Lumbar Spine: Does Age Matter?

Introduction: Current demographic changes are characterized by population aging, such that the surgical treatment of degenerative spine conditions in the elderly is gaining increasing relevance. However, there is a general reluctance to consider spinal fusion procedures in this patient age group due to the increased likelihood of complications. The aim of this study was to assess the patient-rated outcome and complication rates associated with lumbar fusion procedures in three different age groups. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from consecutive patients who underwent first-time, one to three level posterior instrumented fusion between 2004 and 2011, due to degenerative disease of the lumbar spine. Data were obtained from our Spine Surgery Outcomes Database (linked to the International Spine Tango Register). Before surgery, patients completed the multidimensional Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI), and at 3 and 12 months after surgery they completed the COMI and rated the Global Treatment Outcome (GTO) and their satisfaction with care. Patients were divided into three groups according to their age: younger (≥50y <65y; n = 317), older (≥65y <80y; n = 350), and geriatric (≥ 80y; n = 40). Results: 707 consecutive patients were included. The preoperative comorbidity status differed significantly (p < 0.0001) between the age groups, with the highest scores in the geriatric group. General medical complications during surgery were lower in the younger age group (7%) than in the older (13.4%; p = 0.006) and geriatric groups (17.5%; p = 0.007). Duration of hospital stay was longer (p = 0.006) in the older group (10.8 ± 3.7 days) than the younger (10.0 ± 3.6 days) group. There were no significant group differences (p>0.05) for any of the COMI domains covering pain, function, symptom specific well-being, general quality of life, and social and work disability at either 3 months’ or 12 months’ follow-up. Similarly, there were no differences (p>0.05) between the age groups for GTO and patient-rated satisfaction at either follow-up. Conclusions: Preoperative comorbidity and general medical complications during lumbar fusion for degenerative disorders of the lumbar spine are both greater in geriatric patients than in younger patients. However, patient-rated outcome is as good in the elderly as it is in younger age groups. These data suggest that geriatric age per se is not a contraindication to instrumented fusion for lumbar degenerative disease.

Cool Glacial Temperatures and Changes in Moisture Source Recorded in Oman Groundwaters

Concentrations of atmospheric noble gases (neon, argon, krypton, and xenon) dissolved in groundwaters from northern Oman indicate that the average ground temperature during the Late Pleistocene (15,000 to 24,000 years before present) was 6.5° ± 0.6°C lower than that of today. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic groundwater data show that the origin of atmospheric water vapor changed from a primarily southern, Indian Ocean source during the Late Pleistocene to a dominantly northern, Mediterranean source today. The reduced northern water vapor source is consistent with a drier Last Glacial Maximum through much of northern Africa and Arabia.

Stand scale variability of topsoil organic matter composition in a high-elevation Norway spruce forest ecosystem

Our knowledge about the effect of single-tree influence areas on the physicochemical properties of the underlying mineral soil in forest ecosystems is still limited. This restricts our ability to adequately estimate future changes in soil functioning due to forest management practices. We studied the stand scale spatial variation of different soil organic matter species investigated by 13C NMR spectroscopy, lignin phenol and neutral sugar analysis under an unmanaged mountainous high-elevation Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) forest in central Europe. Multivariate geostatistical approaches were applied to relate the spatial patterns of the different soil organic matter species to topographic parameters, bulk density, oxalate- and dithionite-extractable iron, pH, and the impact of tree distribution. Soil samples were taken from the mineral top soil. Generally, the stand scale distribution patterns of different soil organic matter compounds could be divided into two groups: Those compounds, which were significantly spatially correlated with topography/altitude and those with small scale spatial pattern (range ≤ 10 m) that was closely related to tree distribution. The concentration of plant-derived soil organic matter components, such as lignin, at a given sampling point was significantly spatially related to the distance of the nearest tree (p ≤ 0.05). In contrast, the spatial distribution of mainly microbial-derived compounds (e.g. galactose and mannose) could be attributed to the dominating impact of small-scale topography and the contribution of poorly crystalline iron oxides that were significantly larger in the central depression of the study site compared to crest and slope positions. Our results demonstrate that topographic parameters dominate the distribution of overall topsoil organic carbon (OC) stocks at temperate high-elevation forest ecosystems, particularly in sloped terrain. However, trees superimpose topography-controlled OC biogeochemistry beneath their crown by releasing litter and changing soil conditions in comparison to open areas. This may lead to distinct zones with different mechanisms of soil organic matter degradation and also stabilization in forest stands.

Changes of coronary plaque composition correlate with C-reactive protein levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction following high-intensity statin therapy.

OBJECTIVES Levels of inflammatory biomarkers associate with changes of coronary atheroma burden in statin-treated patients with stable coronary artery disease. This study sought to determine changes of plaque composition in vivo in relation to high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) receiving high-intensity statin therapy. METHODS The IBIS-4 study performed serial (baseline and 13-month), 2-vessel intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and radiofrequency-IVUS of the non-infarct-related arteries in patients with STEMI treated with high-intensity statin therapy. The present analysis included 44 patients (80 arteries) with serial measurements of hs-CRP. RESULTS At follow-up, median low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels decreased from 126 to 77 mg/dl, HDL-C increased from 44 to 47 mg/dl, and hs-CRP decreased from 1.6 to 0.7 mg/L. Regression of percent atheroma volume (-0.99%, 95% CI -1.84 to -0.14, p = 0.024) was accompanied by reduction of percent fibro-fatty (p = 0.04) and fibrous tissue (p < 0.001), and increase in percent necrotic core (p = 0.006) and dense calcium (p < 0.001). Follow-up levels of hs-CRP, but not LDL-C, correlated with changes in percent necrotic core (p = 0.001) and inversely with percent fibrous tissue volume (p = 0.008). Similarly, baseline-to-follow-up change of hs-CRP correlated with the change in percent necrotic core volume (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS In STEMI patients receiving high-intensity statin therapy, stabilization of VH-IVUS-defined necrotic core was confined to patients with lowest on-treatment levels and greatest reduction of hs-CRP. Elevated CRP levels at follow-up may identify progression of high-risk coronary plaque composition despite intensive statin therapy and overall regression of atheroma volume.

Source apportionment and dynamic changes of carbonaceous aerosols during the haze bloom-decay process in China based on radiocarbon and organic molecular tracers

Fine carbonaceous aerosols (CAs) is the key factor influencing the currently filthy air in megacities in China, yet few studies simultaneously focus on the origins of different CAs species using specific and powerful source tracers. Here, we present a detailed source apportionment for various CAs fractions, including organic carbon (OC), water-soluble OC (WSOC), water-insoluble OC (WIOC), elemental carbon (EC) and secondary OC (SOC) in the largest cities of North (Beijing, BJ) and South China (Guangzhou, GZ), using the measurements of radiocarbon and anhydrosugars. Results show that non-fossil fuel sources such as biomass burning and biogenic emission make a significant contribution to the total CAs in Chinese megacities: 56±4 in BJ and 46±5% in GZ, respectively. The relative contributions of primary fossil carbon from coal and liquid petroleum combustions, primary non-fossil carbon and secondary organic carbon (SOC) to total carbon are 19, 28 and 54% in BJ, and 40, 15 and 46% in GZ, respectively. Non-fossil fuel sources account for 52 in BJ and 71% in GZ of SOC, respectively. These results suggest that biomass burning has a greater influence on regional particulate air pollution in North China than in South China. We observed an unabridged haze bloom-decay process in South China, which illustrates that both primary and secondary matter from fossil sources played a key role in the blooming phase of the pollution episode, while haze phase is predominantly driven by fossil-derived secondary organic matter and nitrate.

Analysis of behavioral changes in dairy cows associated with claw horn lesions

Detecting lame cows is important in improving animal welfare. Automated tools are potentially useful to enable identification and monitoring of lame cows. The goals of this study were to evaluate the suitability of various physiological and behavioral parameters to automatically detect lameness in dairy cows housed in a cubicle barn. Lame cows suffering from a claw horn lesion (sole ulcer or white line disease) of one claw of the same hind limb (n=32; group L) and 10 nonlame healthy cows (group C) were included in this study. Lying and standing behavior at night by tridimensional accelerometers, weight distribution between hind limbs by the 4-scale weighing platform, feeding behavior at night by the nose band sensor, and heart activity by the Polar device (Polar Electro Oy, Kempele, Finland) were assessed. Either the entire data set or parts of the data collected over a 48-h period were used for statistical analysis, depending upon the parameter in question. The standing time at night over 12 h and the limb weight ratio (LWR) were significantly higher in group C as compared with group L, whereas the lying time at night over 12 h, the mean limb difference (△weight), and the standard deviation (SD) of the weight applied on the limb taking less weight were significantly lower in group C as compared with group L. No significant difference was noted between the groups for the parameters of heart activity and feeding behavior at night. The locomotion score of cows in group L was positively correlated with the lying time and △weight, whereas it was negatively correlated with LWR and SD. The highest sensitivity (0.97) for lameness detection was found for the parameter SD [specificity of 0.80 and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84]. The highest specificity (0.90) for lameness detection was present for Δweight (sensitivity=0.78; AUC=0.88) and LWR (sensitivity=0.81; AUC=0.87). The model considering the data of SD together with lying time at night was the best predictor of cows being lame, accounting for 40% of the variation in the likelihood of a cow being lame (sensitivity=0.94; specificity=0.80; AUC=0.86). In conclusion, the data derived from the 4-scale-weighing platform, either alone or combined with the lying time at night over 12 h, represent the most valuable parameters for automated identification of lame cows suffering from a claw horn lesion of one individual hind limb.

Implicit probabilistic sequence learning: Correlated streams and sequence length matter

We investigated whether a pure perceptual stream is sufficient for probabilistic sequence learning to occur within a single session or whether correlated streams are necessary, whether learning is affected by the transition probability between sequence elements, and how the sequence length influences learning. In each of three experiments, we used six horizontally arranged stimulus displays which consisted of randomly ordered bigrams xo and ox. The probability of the next possible target location out of two was either .50/.50 or .75/.25 and was marked by an underline. In Experiment 1, a left vs. right key response was required for the x of a marked bigram in the pure perceptual learning condition and a response key press corresponding to the marked bigram location (out of 6) was required in the correlated streams condition (i.e., the ring, middle, or index finger of the left and right hand, respectively). The same probabilistic 3-element sequence was used in both conditions. Learning occurred only in the correlated streams condition. In Experiment 2, we investigated whether sequence length affected learning correlated sequences by contrasting the 3-elements sequence with a 6-elements sequence. Significant sequence learning occurred in all conditions. In Experiment 3, we removed a potential confound, that is, the sequence of hand changes. Under these conditions, learning occurred for the 3-element sequence only and transition probability did not affect the amount of learning. Together, these results indicate that correlated streams are necessary for probabilistic sequence learning within a single session and that sequence length can reduce the chances for learning to occur.