The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included. FINDINGS Depending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries. INTERPRETATION Donors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs. FUNDING World Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

Small-diameter titanium grade IV and titanium-zirconium implants in edentulous mandibles: five-year results from a double-blind, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to compare the 5-year survival and success rates of 3.3 mm dental implants either made from titanium-zirconium (TiZr) alloy or from Grade IV titanium (Ti Grade IV) in mandibular implant-based removable overdentures. METHODS The core study had a follow-up period of 36 months and was designed as a randomized, controlled, double-blind, split-mouth multicenter clinical trial. Patients with edentulous mandibles received two Straumann Bone Level implants (diameter 3.3 mm, SLActive®), one of TiZr (test) and one of Ti Grade IV (control), in the interforaminal region. This follow-up study recruited patients from the core study and evaluated the plaque and sulcus bleeding indices, radiographic crestal bone level, as well as implant survival and success 60 months after implant placement. RESULTS Of the 91 patients who initially received implants, 75 completed the 36 month follow-up and 49 were available for the 60 month examination. Two patients were excluded so that a total of 47 patients with an average age of 72 ± 8 years were analysed. The characteristics and 36-month performance of the present study cohort did not differ from the non-included initial participants (p > 0.05). In the period since the 36-month follow-up examination, no implant was lost. The cumulative implant survival rate was 98.9 % for the TiZr group and 97.8 % for the Ti Grade IV group. Crestal bone level changes at 60 months were not different in the test and control group (TiZr -0.60 ± 0.69 mm and Ti Grade IV -0.61 ± 0.83 mm; p = 0.96). The cumulative implant success rate after 60 months was 95.8 and 92.6 % for TiZr and Ti Grade IV, respectively. CONCLUSIONS After 60 months, the positive outcomes of the 36 month results for TiZr and Ti Grade IV implants were confirmed, with no significant differences with regard to crestal bone level change, clinical parameters and survival or success rates. TiZr implants performed equally well compared to conventional Ti Grade IV 3.3 mm diameter-reduced implants for mandibular removable overdentures. TRIAL REGISTRATION Registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01878331.