Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach

One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall–runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management.

White matter in aphasia: a historical review of the Dejerines' studies

The Objective was to describe the contributions of Joseph Jules Dejerine and his wife Augusta Dejerine-Klumpke to our understanding of cerebral association fiber tracts and language processing. The Dejerines (and not Constantin von Monakow) were the first to describe the superior longitudinal fasciculus/arcuate fasciculus (SLF/AF) as an association fiber tract uniting Broca's area, Wernicke's area, and a visual image center in the angular gyrus of a left hemispheric language zone. They were also the first to attribute language-related functions to the fasciculi occipito-frontalis (FOF) and the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF) after describing aphasia patients with degeneration of the SLF/AF, ILF, uncinate fasciculus (UF), and FOF. These fasciculi belong to a functional network known as the Dejerines' language zone, which exceeds the borders of the classically defined cortical language centers. The Dejerines provided the first descriptions of the anatomical pillars of present-day language models (such as the SLF/AF). Their anatomical descriptions of fasciculi in aphasia patients provided a foundation for our modern concept of the dorsal and ventral streams in language processing.

Indigenous land reconfiguration and fragmented institutions: a historical political ecology of Tsimane’ lands (Bolivian Amazon)

Lands inhabited by indigenous peoples often have low population density but abundant natural resources. For those reasons, many actors have historically attempted to occupy those lands or use the resources in them. Increasing pressures over lands occupied by indigenous peoples have resulted in the awakening of indigenous peoples over their rights to land and resources generating many debates over indigenous peoples' rights to land and self-governance. In this article, we provide a historical and geographical overview of territorial and governance issues among the Tsimane', an indigenous group native to the Bolivian Amazon. We examine how the Bolivian state economic policies implemented during the 20th century affected the Tsimane' ancestral lands, and how – over the late-20th century – the Bolivian state accommodated Tsimane' claims to lands in between multiple interests. We show how national policies led to the reconfiguration of Tsimane' territoriality and to a fragmented institutional representation. Current indigenous territories and indigenous political representation are an expression of conflictive policies that have involved multiple actors and their specific interests on indigenous lands and its resources.

Taxon-specific δ13C analysis of chitinous invertebrate remains in sediments from Strandsjön, Sweden

Taxon-specific stable carbon isotope (δ13C) analysis of chitinous remains of invertebrates can provide valuable information about the carbon sources used by invertebrates living in specific habitats of lake ecosystems (for example, sediments, water column, or aquatic vegetation). This is complementary to δ13C of sedimentary organic matter (SOM), which provides an integrated signal of organic matter produced in a lake and its catchment, and of diagenetic processes within sediments. In a sediment record from Strandsjön (Sweden) covering the past circa 140 years, we analyzed SOM geochemistry (δ13C, C:Natomic, organic carbon content) and δ13C of chitinous invertebrate remains in order to examine whether taxon-specific δ13C records could be developed for different invertebrate groups and whether these analyses provide insights into past changes of organic carbon sources for lacustrine invertebrates available in benthic and planktonic compartments of the lake. Invertebrate taxa included benthic chironomids (Chironomus, Chironomini excluding Chironomus, Tanytarsini, and Tanypodinae), filter-feeders on suspended particulate organic matter (Daphnia, Plumatella and Cristatella mucedo), and Rhabdocoela. δ13C of chironomid remains indicated periodic availability of 13C-depleted carbon sources in the benthic environment of the lake as δ13C values of the different chironomid taxa fluctuated simultaneously between -34.7 and -30.5‰ (VPDB). Daphnia and Bryozoa showed parallel changes in their δ13C values which did not coincide with variations in δ13C of chironomids, though, and a 2-3‰ decrease since circa AD 1960. The decrease in δ13C of Daphnia and Bryozoa could indicate a decrease in phytoplankton δ13C as a result of lower lake productivity, which is in accordance with historical information about the lake that suggests a shift to less eutrophic conditions after AD 1960. In contrast, Rhabdocoela cocoons were characterized by relatively high δ13C values (-30.4 to -28.2‰) that did not show a strong temporal trend, which could be related to the predatory feeding mode and wide prey spectrum of this organism group. The taxon-specific δ13C analyses of invertebrate remains indicated that different carbon sources were available for the benthic chironomid larvae than for the filter-feeding Daphnia and bryozoans. Our results therefore demonstrate that taxon-specific analysis of δ13C of organic invertebrate remains can provide complementary information to measurements on bulk SOM and that δ13C of invertebrate remains may allow the reconstruction of past changes in carbon sources and their δ13C in different habitats of lake ecosystems.

Ice-Core Based Assessment of Historical Anthropogenic Heavy Metal (Cd, Cu, Sb, Zn) Emissions in the Soviet Union

The development of strategies and policies aiming at the reduction of environmental exposure to air pollution requires the assessment of historical emissions. Although anthropogenic emissions from the extended territory of the Soviet Union (SU) considerably influenced concentrations of heavy metals in the Northern Hemisphere, Pb is the only metal with long-term historical emission estimates for this region available, whereas for selected other metals only single values exist. Here we present the first study assessing long-term Cd, Cu, Sb, and Zn emissions in the SU during the period 1935–1991 based on ice-core concentration records from Belukha glacier in the Siberian Altai and emission data from 12 regions in the SU for the year 1980. We show that Zn primarily emitted from the Zn production in Ust-Kamenogorsk (East Kazakhstan) dominated the SU heavy metal emission. Cd, Sb, Zn (Cu) emissions increased between 1935 and the 1970s (1980s) due to expanded non-ferrous metal production. Emissions of the four metals in the beginning of the 1990s were as low as in the 1950s, which we attribute to the economic downturn in industry, changes in technology for an increasing metal recovery from ores, the replacement of coal and oil by gas, and air pollution control.

Long-term relationships among pesticide applications, mobility, and soil erosion in a vineyard watershed

Agricultural pesticide use has increased worldwide during the last several decades, but the long-term fate, storage, and transfer dynamics of pesticides in a changing environment are poorly understood. Many pesticides have been progressively banned, but in numerous cases, these molecules are stable and may persist in soils, sediments, and ice. Many studies have addressed the question of their possible remobilization as a result of global change. In this article, we present a retro-observation approach based on lake sediment records to monitor micropollutants and to evaluate the long-term succession and diffuse transfer of herbicides, fungicides, and insecticide treatments in a vineyard catchment in France. The sediment allows for a reliable reconstruction of past pesticide use through time, validated by the historical introduction, use, and banning of these organic and inorganic pesticides in local vineyards. Our results also revealed how changes in these practices affect storage conditions and, consequently, the pesticides’ transfer dynamics. For example, the use of postemergence herbicides (glyphosate), which induce an increase in soil erosion, led to a release of a banned remnant pesticide (dichlorodiphenyltrichloro- ethane, DDT), which had been previously stored in vineyard soil, back into the environment. Management strategies of ecotoxico- logical risk would be well served by recognition of the diversity of compounds stored in various environmental sinks, such as agriculture soil, and their capability to become sources when environmental conditions change.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.