Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and policy makers.

[Evaluation of risk factors for Mastitis-Metritis-Agalactia in pig farms in Switzerland].

Mastitis-Metritis-Agalactia (MMA), also known as postpartum dysgalactia syndrome (PPDS) is the most important disease complex in sows after birth. The present study compared 30 MMA problem herds (over 12% of farrowing sows affected) with 30 control farms (less than 10% of farrowing sows affected) to identify risk factors and treatment incidence. Important risk factors identified were in gilts the integration into the herd after the first farrowing, in gestating sows firm fecal consistency as well as in lactating sows soiled troughs, a low flow rate (<2 liters per minute) in drinking nipples and a high prevalence of lameness. The treatment incidence was also significantly different between the two groups. The MMA prevalence could be reduced through optimization of husbandry, feeding and management, which could essentially diminish the use of antibiotics.

Longitudinal study on the colonisation and transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in pig farms.

Knowledge about the dynamics of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in pigs lacks detail at the level of individual animal. The aim of our study was therefore to determine the colonisation status of MRSA in individual pigs from birth to slaughter in order to gain a better understanding of substantial factors involved in transmission. Two farrow-to-finish and two grow-to-finish herds were included in the study. A total of 1728 nasal swabs from 390 pigs and 592 environmental wipes were collected at 11 different time points. Intermittent colonisation throughout the entire production cycle was conspicuous in the tracking of MRSA in individual pigs. Almost all pigs from a MRSA-positive herd changed MRSA status several times, which implies that pigs are transiently rather than permanently colonised. We highly recommend the definition of MRSA status at herd level rather that at the level of the individual pig when considering prevention measures against MRSA. Therefore, to avoid the further spread of MRSA in countries with moderate prevalence, such as in Switzerland, defining farms as MRSA positive or MRSA negative and allowing the trade of pigs only within herds of the same status seems feasible. This will also be important for combating the further dissemination of livestock-associated (LA)-MRSA into healthcare facilities and the community via humans who have close contact with animals.

Prevalence and diversity of Chlamydiales in Swiss ruminant farms.

Chlamydia and Chlamydia-related bacteria are known to infect various organisms and may cause a wide range of diseases, especially in ruminants. To gain insight into the prevalence of these bacteria in the ruminant environment, we applied a pan-Chlamydiales PCR followed by sequencing to 72 ruminant environmental samples from water, feed bunks and floors. Chlamydiales from four family-level lineages were detected indicating a high biodiversity of Chlamydiales in ruminant farms. Parachlamydiaceae were detected in all three types of environmental samples and was the most abundant family-level taxon (60%). In contrast, only one bacterium from each of the following family-level lineages was identified: Chlamydiaceae, Criblamydiaceae and Simkaniaceae. The observed high prevalence of Parachlamydiaceae in water samples may suggest water as the main source of contamination for ruminants as well as their environment due to spoilage. The absence of reported infections in the investigated ruminant farms might indicate that either detected Chlamydiales are of reduced pathogenicity or infective doses have not been reached.