Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

The Hidden World of Multilateralism? Treaty Commitments of Newly Democratized States in Europe

Why do new EU democracies engage in multilateralism? The dominant explanation proposes that new democracies use international treaties to lock in domestic reforms. This article offers a novel explanation as to why new EU democracies participate in multilateral treaties. We argue that ratifying a treaty serves three external signaling purposes (addressing recognition concerns; increasing strategic autonomy, and pleasing the EU). We test our argument through a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. First, we apply event history analysis. Drawing on a new ratification data set comprising 76 multilateral treaties, we illustrate the prominent role of new EU democracies in multilateralism as compared to other new democracies. Second, to assess the importance of external signaling in the decision to ratify multilateral treaties, we examine parliamentary ratification debates in selected Central and Eastern European countries. Third, we compare parliamentary discussions across European and non-European new democracies to demonstrate the different motives driving their approaches toward multilateralism.

Religion and the Senses in Early Modern Europe

Sensation is the subject of a burgeoning field in the humanities. This volume examines its role in the religious changes and transformations of early modern Europe. Sensation was not only central to the doctrinal disputes of the Reformation, but also critical in shaping new or reformed devotional practices. From this vantage point the book explores the intersections between the world of religion and the spheres of art, music, and literature; food and smell; sacred things and spaces; ritual and community; science and medicine. Deployed in varying, often contested ways, the senses were essential pathways to the sacred. They permitted knowledge of the divine and the universe, triggered affective responses, shaped holy environments, and served to heal, guide, or discipline body and soul.

European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries

The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June–August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (−0.52 ± 0.05 °C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (−0.18 ± 0.07 °C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.

Approaching diplomatic and courtly gift-giving in Europe and Mughal India. Shared practices and cultural diversity

This article deals with courtly gift-giving practices in Europe and Mughal India from a comparative and interwoven perspective. Given the historiographical lacunae on Mughal gift-giving, the article presents preliminary observations for further research. Unlike most contributions to this volume, this article understands the notion of diversity in terms of an intercultural diversity that came to the fore in courtly contexts and in diplomatic encounters. My arguments are bifold. On the one hand, European and Mughal rulers and their envoys shared a common ground of diplomatic gift-giving practices that were shaped by an understanding of what was worthy of giving and of the symbolic power of the given objects. On the other hand, courtly gift-giving practices were embedded in different social and cultural environments in Europe and India. By looking at the notion of the ‘gift’ and the social organisation of the Mughal elite, it becomes clear that pīshkash was an idiosyncratic concept in South and Central Asian contexts and that offerings of manṣabdārs to the Mughal emperor had a different character than those of European courtiers to their rulers.

Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.

The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region’s importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores fromLake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y.We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial–interglacial climate variability.

Volcanic Influence on European Summer Precipitation through Monsoons: Possible Cause for “Years without Summer”*

Strong tropical volcanic eruptions have significant effects on global and regional temperatures. Their effects on precipitation, however, are less well understood. Analyzing hydroclimatic anomalies after 14 strong eruptions during the last 400 years in climate reconstructions and model simulations, a reduction of the Asian and African summer monsoons and an increase of south-central European summer precipitation in the year following the eruption was found. The simulations provide evidence for a dynamical link between these phenomena. The weaker monsoon circulations weaken the northern branch of the Hadley circulation, alter the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic–European sector, and increase precipitation over Europe. This mechanism is able to explain, for instance, the wet summer in parts of Europe during the “year without a summer” of 1816, which up to now has not been explained. This study underlines the importance of atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and midlatitudes to better understand the regional climate response to stratospheric volcanic aerosols.

Elemental and Lead Isotopic Data of Copper Finds from the Singen Cemetery, Germany – a Methodological Approach to Investigate Early Bronze Age Trade Networks

We report a trace element - Pb isotope analytical (LIA) database on the "Singen Copper", a peculiar type of copper found in the North Alpine realm, from its type locality, the Early Bronze Age Singen Cemetery (Germany). What distinguishes “Singen Copper” from other coeval copper types? (i) is it a discrete metal lot with a uniform provenance (if so, can its provenance be constrained)? (ii) was it manufactured by a special, unique metallurgical process that can be discriminated from others? Trace element concentrations can give clues on the ore types that were mined, but they can be modified (more or less intentionally) by metallurgical operations. A more robust indicator are the ratios of chemically similar elements (e.g. Co/Ni, Bi/Sb, etc.), since they should remain nearly constant during metallurgical operations, and are expected to behave homogeneously in each mineral of a given mining area, but their partition amongst the different mineral species is known to cause strong inter-element fractionations. We tested the trace element ratio pattern predicted by geochemical arguments on the Brixlegg mining area. Brixlegg itself is not compatible with the Singen Copper objects, and we only report it because it is a rare instance of a mining area for which sufficient trace element analyses are available in the literature. We observe that As/Sb in fahlerz varies by a factor 1.8 above/below median; As/Sb in enargite varies by a factor of 2.5 with a 10 times higher median. Most of the 102 analyzed metal objects from Singen are Sb-Ni-rich, corresponding to “antimony-nickel copper” of the literature. Other trace element concentrations vary by > 100 times, ratios by factors > 50. Pb isotopic compositions are all significantly different from each other. They do not form a single linear array and require > 3 ore batches that certainly do not derive from one single mining area. Our data suggest a heterogeneous provenance of “Singen copper”. Archaeological information limits the scope to Central European sources. LIA requires a diverse supply network from many mining localities, including possibly Brittany. Trace element ratios show more heterogeneity than LIA; this can be explained either by deliberate selection of one particular ore mineral (from very many sources) or by processing of assorted ore minerals from a smaller number of sources, with the unintentional effect that the quality of the copper would not be constant, as the metallurgical properties of alloys would vary with trace element concentrations.

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

The prevalence and predictive value of dipstick urine protein in HIV-positive persons in Europe.

INTRODUCTION Proteinuria (PTU) is an important marker for the development and progression of renal disease, cardiovascular disease and death, but there is limited information about the prevalence and factors associated with confirmed PTU in predominantly white European HIV+ persons, especially in those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). PATIENTS AND METHODS Baseline was defined as the first of two consecutive dipstick urine protein (DPU) measurements during prospective follow-up >1/6/2011 (when systematic data collection began). PTU was defined as two consecutive DUP >1+ (>30 mg/dL) >3 months apart; persons with eGFR <60 at either DPU measurement were excluded. Logistic regression investigated factors associated with PTU. RESULTS A total of 1,640 persons were included, participants were mainly white (n=1,517, 92.5%), male (n=1296, 79.0%) and men having sex with men (n=809; 49.3%). Median age at baseline was 45 (IQR 37-52 years), and CD4 was 570 (IQR 406-760/mm(3)). The median baseline date was 2/12 (IQR 11/11-6/12), and median eGFR was 99 (IQR 88-109 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Sixty-nine persons had PTU (4.2%, 95% CI 3.2-4.7%). Persons with diabetes had increased odds of PTU, as were those with a prior non-AIDS (1) or AIDS event and those with prior exposure to indinavir. Among females, those with a normal eGFR (>90) and those with prior abacavir use had lower odds of PTU (Figure 1). CONCLUSIONS One in 25 persons with eGFR>60 had confirmed proteinuria at baseline. Factors associated with PTU were similar to those associated with CKD. The lack of association with antiretrovirals, particularly tenofovir, may be due to the cross-sectional design of this study, and additional follow-up is required to address progression to PTU in those without PTU at baseline. It may also suggest other markers are needed to capture the deteriorating renal function associated with antiretrovirals may be needed at higher eGFRs. Our findings suggest PTU is an early marker for impaired renal function.

Major challenges in clinical management of TB/HIV co-infected patients in Eastern Europe compared with Western Europe and Latin America.

INTRODUCTION Rates of both TB/HIV co-infection and multi-drug-resistant (MDR) TB are increasing in Eastern Europe (EE). Data on the clinical management of TB/HIV co-infected patients are scarce. Our aim was to study the clinical characteristics of TB/HIV patients in Europe and Latin America (LA) at TB diagnosis, identify factors associated with MDR-TB and assess the activity of initial TB treatment regimens given the results of drug-susceptibility tests (DST). MATERIAL AND METHODS We enrolled 1413 TB/HIV patients from 62 clinics in 19 countries in EE, Western Europe (WE), Southern Europe (SE) and LA from January 2011 to December 2013. Among patients who completed DST within the first month of TB therapy, we linked initial TB treatment regimens to the DST results and calculated the distribution of patients receiving 0, 1, 2, 3 and ≥4 active drugs in each region. Risk factors for MDR-TB were identified in logistic regression models. RESULTS Significant differences were observed between EE (n=844), WE (n=152), SE (n=164) and LA (n=253) for use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) at TB diagnosis (17%, 40%, 44% and 35%, p<0.0001), a definite TB diagnosis (culture and/or PCR positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis; 47%, 71%, 72% and 40%, p<0.0001) and MDR-TB prevalence (34%, 3%, 3% and 11%, p <0.0001 among those with DST results). The history of injecting drug use [adjusted OR (aOR) = 2.03, (95% CI 1.00-4.09)], prior TB treatment (aOR = 3.42, 95% CI 1.88-6.22) and living in EE (aOR = 7.19, 95% CI 3.28-15.78) were associated with MDR-TB. For 569 patients with available DST, the initial TB treatment contained ≥3 active drugs in 64% of patients in EE compared with 90-94% of patients in other regions (Figure 1a). Had the patients received initial therapy with standard therapy [Rifampicin, Isoniazid, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (RHZE)], the corresponding proportions would have been 64% vs. 86-97%, respectively (Figure 1b). CONCLUSIONS In EE, TB/HIV patients had poorer exposure to cART, less often a definitive TB diagnosis and more often MDR-TB compared to other parts of Europe and LA. Initial TB therapy in EE was sub-optimal, with less than two-thirds of patients receiving at least three active drugs, and improved compliance with standard RHZE treatment does not seem to be the solution. Improved management of TB/HIV patients requires routine use of DST, initial TB therapy according to prevailing resistance patterns and more widespread use of cART.

Laboratory diagnosis of ruminant abortion in Europe.

Abortion in ruminants is a major cause of economic loss worldwide, and the management and control of outbreaks is important in limiting their spread, and in preventing zoonotic infections. Given that rapid and accurate laboratory diagnosis is central to controlling abortion outbreaks, the submission of tissue samples to laboratories offering the most appropriate tests is essential. Direct antigen and/or DNA detection methods are the currently preferred methods of reaching an aetiological diagnosis, and ideally these results are confirmed by the demonstration of corresponding macroscopic and/or histopathological lesions in the fetus and/or the placenta. However, the costs of laboratory examinations may be considerable and, even under optimal conditions, the percentage of aetiological diagnoses reached can be relatively low. This review focuses on the most commonly occurring and important abortifacient pathogens of ruminant species in Europe highlighting their epizootic and zoonotic potential. The performance characteristics of the various diagnostic methods used, including their specific advantages and limitations, are discussed.