New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population.

BACKGROUND Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. The current reference values for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion rely on observations performed in the 1960s and 1970s in relatively small and mostly selected groups, and may thus poorly fit to the present-day general European population. The aim of this study was to establish and validate anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion on adult populations with preserved renal function. METHODS We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). Based on current reference values (177 to 221 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 133 to 177 μmol/kg/24 hours in women), 56% of the urinary collections in the whole population and 67% in people >60 years old would have been considered as inaccurate. A linear regression model with sex, BMI and age as predictor variables was found to provide the best prediction of the observed values and showed a good fit when applied to the validation population. CONCLUSIONS We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

Childhood cancer survivor cohorts in Europe.

With the advent of multimodality therapy, the overall five-year survival rate from childhood cancer has improved considerably now exceeding 80% in developed European countries. This growing cohort of survivors, with many years of life ahead of them, has raised the necessity for knowledge concerning the risks of adverse long-term sequelae of the life-saving treatments in order to provide optimal screening and care and to identify and provide adequate interventions. Childhood cancer survivor cohorts in Europe. Considerable advantages exist to study late effects in individuals treated for childhood cancer in a European context, including the complementary advantages of large population-based cancer registries and the unrivalled opportunities to study lifetime risks, together with rich and detailed hospital-based cohorts which fill many of the gaps left by the large-scale population-based studies, such as sparse treatment information. Several large national cohorts have been established within Europe to study late effects in individuals treated for childhood cancer including the Nordic Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia study (ALiCCS), the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS), the Dutch Childhood Oncology Group (DCOG) LATER study, and the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS). Furthermore, there are other large cohorts, which may eventually become national in scope including the French Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (FCCSS), the French Childhood Cancer Survivor Study for Leukaemia (LEA), and the Italian Study on off-therapy Childhood Cancer Survivors (OTR). In recent years significant steps have been taken to extend these national studies into a larger pan-European context through the establishment of two large consortia - PanCareSurFup and PanCareLIFE. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the current large, national and pan-European studies of late effects after childhood cancer. This overview will highlight the strong cooperation across Europe, in particular the EU-funded collaborative research projects PanCareSurFup and PanCareLIFE. Overall goal. The overall goal of these large cohort studies is to provide every European childhood cancer survivor with better care and better long-term health so that they reach their full potential, and to the degree possible, enjoy the same quality of life and opportunities as their peers.

The course of chronic and recurrent low back pain in the general population

Using latent class analysis (LCA), a previous study on patients attending primary care identified four courses of low back pain (LBP) over the subsequent 6 months. To date, no studies have used longitudinal pain recordings to examine the "natural" course of recurrent and chronic LBP in a population-based sample of individuals. This study examines the course of LBP in the general population and elaborates on the stability and criterion-related validity of the clusters derived. A random sample of 400 individuals reporting LBP in a population-based study was asked to complete a comprehensive questionnaire at the start and end of the year's survey, and 52 weekly pain diaries in between. The latter were analyzed using LCA. 305 individuals returned more than 50% of the diaries. Four clusters were identified (severe persistent, moderate persistent, mild persistent, and fluctuating). The clusters differed significantly with regards to pain and disability. Assessment of cluster stability showed that a considerable proportion of patients in the "fluctuating" group changed their classification over time. Three of the four clusters describing the typical course of pain matched the clusters described previously for patients in primary care. Due to the population-based design, this study achieves, for the first time, a close insight into the "natural" course of chronic and recurrent low back pain, including individuals that did not necessarily visit the general practitioner. The findings will help to understand better the nature of this pain in the general population.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

Genetic variation in the PNPLA3 gene is associated with alcoholic liver injury in caucasians

A recent genome-wide study revealed an association between variation in the PNPLA3 gene and liver fat content. In addition, the PNPLA3 single-nucleotide polymorphism rs738409 (M148I) was reported to be associated with advanced alcoholic liver disease in alcohol-dependent individuals of Mestizo descent. We therefore evaluated the impact of rs738409 on the manifestation of alcoholic liver disease in two independent German cohorts. Genotype and allele frequencies of rs738409 (M148I) were determined in 1,043 alcoholic patients with or without alcoholic liver injury and in 376 at-risk drinkers from a population-based cohort. Relative to alcoholic patients without liver damage (n = 439), rs738409 genotype GG was strongly overrepresented in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis (n = 210; OR 2.79; P(genotype) = 1.2 × 10(-5) ; P(allelic) = 1.6 × 10(-6) ) and in alcoholic patients without cirrhosis but with elevated alanine aminotransferase levels (n = 219; OR 2.33; P(genotype) = 0.0085; P(allelic) = 0.0042). The latter, biochemically defined association was confirmed in an independent population-based cohort of at-risk drinkers with a median alcohol intake of 300 g/week (OR 4.75; P(genotype) = 0.040; P(allelic) = 0.022), and for aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels. Frequencies of allele PNPLA3 rs738409(G) in individuals with steatosis and normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and AST levels were lower than in alcoholics without steatosis and normal ALT/AST (P(combined) = 0.03). The population attributable risk of cirrhosis in alcoholic carriers of allele PNPLA3 rs738409(G) was estimated at 26.6%. CONCLUSION: Genotype PNPLA3 rs738409(GG) is associated with alcoholic liver cirrhosis and elevated aminotransferase levels in alcoholic Caucasians.

Epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic evaluation of population screening for genital chlamydial infection

OBJECTIVES: To investigate epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic aspects of chlamydia screening in non-genitourinary medicine settings. METHODS: Linked studies around a cross-sectional population-based survey of adult men and women invited to collect urine and (for women) vulvovaginal swab specimens at home and mail these to a laboratory for testing for Chlamydia trachomatis. Specimens were used in laboratory evaluations of an amplified enzyme immunoassay (PCE EIA) and two nucleic acid amplification tests [Cobas polymerase chain reaction (PCR), Becton Dickinson strand displacement amplification (SDA)]. Chlamydia-positive cases and two negative controls completed a risk factor questionnaire. Chlamydia-positive cases were invited into a randomised controlled trial of partner notification strategies. Samples of individuals testing negative completed psychological questionnaires before and after screening. In-depth interviews were conducted at all stages of screening. Chlamydia transmission and cost-effectiveness of screening were investigated in a transmission dynamic model. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: General population in the Bristol and Birmingham areas of England. In total, 19,773 women and men aged 16-39 years were randomly selected from 27 general practice lists. RESULTS: Screening invitations reached 73% (14,382/19,773). Uptake (4731 participants), weighted for sampling, was 39.5% (95% CI 37.7, 40.8%) in women and 29.5% (95% CI 28.0, 31.0%) in men aged 16-39 years. Chlamydia prevalence (219 positive results) in 16-24 year olds was 6.2% (95% CI 4.9, 7.8%) in women and 5.3% (95% CI 4.4, 6.3%) in men. The case-control study did not identify any additional factors that would help target screening. Screening did not adversely affect anxiety, depression or self-esteem. Participants welcomed the convenience and privacy of home-sampling. The relative sensitivity of PCR on male urine specimens was 100% (95% CI 89.1, 100%). The combined relative sensitivities of PCR and SDA using female urine and vulvovaginal swabs were 91.8% (86.1, 95.7, 134/146) and 97.3% (93.1, 99.2%, 142/146). A total of 140 people (74% of eligible) participated in the randomised trial. Compared with referral to a genitourinary medicine clinic, partner notification by practice nurses resulted in 12.4% (95% CI -3.7, 28.6%) more patients with at least one partner treated and 22.0% (95% CI 6.1, 37.8%) more patients with all partners treated. The health service and patients costs (2005 prices) of home-based postal chlamydia screening were 21.47 pounds (95% CI 19.91 pounds, 25.99) per screening invitation and 28.56 pounds (95% CI 22.10 pounds, 30.43) per accepted offer. Preliminary modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (2003 prices) comparing screening men and women annually to no screening in the base case of 27,000 pounds/major outcome averted at 8 years. If estimated screening uptake and pelvic inflammatory disease incidence were increased, the cost-effectiveness ratio fell to 3700 pounds/major outcome averted. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive screening for chlamydia in women and men using home-collected specimens was feasible and acceptable. Chlamydia prevalence rates in men and women in the general population are similar. Nucleic acid amplification tests can be used on first-catch urine specimens and vulvovaginal swabs. The administrative costs of proactive screening were similar to those for opportunistic screening. Using empirical estimates of screening uptake and incidence of complications, screening was not cost-effective.

Heart failure events, and case fatalities in Switzerland based on hospital statistics and cause of death statistics

In Switzerland there is a shortage of population-based information on heart failure (HF) incidence and case fatalities (CF). The aim of this study was to estimate HF event rates and both in- and out-of-hospital CF rates.

Stroke events, and case fatalities in Switzerland based on hospital statistics and cause of death statistics

OBJECTIVE: In Switzerland there is a shortage of population-based information on stroke incidence and case fatalities (CF). The aim of this study was to estimate stroke event rates and both in- and out-of-hospital CF rates. METHODS: Data on stroke diagnoses, coded according to I60-I64 (ICD 10), were taken from the Federal Hospital Discharge Statistics database (HOST) and the Cause of Death database (CoD) for the year 2004. The number of total stroke events and of age- and gender-specific and agestandardised event rates were estimated; overall CF, in-hospital and out-of-hospital, were determined. RESULTS: Among the overall number of 13 996 hospital discharges from stroke (HOST) the number was lower in women (n = 6736) than in men (n = 7260). A total of 3568 deaths (2137 women and 1431 men) due to stroke were recorded in the CoD database. The number of estimated stroke events was 15 733, and higher in women (n = 7933) than in men (n = 7800). Men presented significantly higher age-specific stroke event rates and a higher age-standardised event rate (178.7/100 000 versus 119.7/100 000). Overall CF rates were significantly higher for women (26.9%) than for men (18.4%). The same was true of out-of-hospital CF but not of in-hospital CF rates. CONCLUSION: The data on estimated stroke events obtained indicate that stroke discharge rate underestimates the stroke event rate. Out-of-hospital deaths from stroke accounted for the largest proportion of total stroke deaths. Sex differences in both number of total stroke events and deaths could be explained by the higher proportion of women than men aged 55+ in the Swiss population.

Prevalence of cam and pincer-type deformities on hip MRI in an asymptomatic young Swiss female population: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES Femoroacetabular impingement is proposed to cause early osteoarthritis (OA) in the non-dysplastic hip. We previously reported on the prevalence of femoral deformities in a young asymptomatic male population. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of both femoral and acetabular types of impingement in young females. METHODS We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of asymptomatic young females. All participants completed a set of questionnaires and underwent clinical examination of the hip. A random sample was subsequently invited to obtain magnetic resonance images (MRI) of the hip. All MRIs were read for cam-type deformities, increased acetabular depths, labral lesions, and impingement pits. Prevalence estimates of cam-type deformities and increased acetabular depths were estimated, and relationships between deformities and signs of joint damage were examined using logistic regression models. RESULTS The study included 283 subjects, and 80 asymptomatic females with a mean age of 19.3 years attended MRI. Fifteen showed some evidence of cam-type deformities, but none were scored to be definite. The overall prevalence was therefore 0% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0-5%]. The prevalence of increased acetabular depth was 10% (95% CI 5-19). No association was found between increased acetabular depth and decreased internal rotation of the hip. Increased acetabular depth was not associated with signs of labral damage. CONCLUSIONS Definite cam-type deformities in women are rare compared to men, whereas the prevalence of increased acetabular depth is higher, suggesting that femoroacetabular impingement has different gender-related biomechanical mechanisms.

Epidemiology of masked and white-coat hypertension: the family-based SKIPOGH study

Objective We investigated factors associated with masked and white-coat hypertension in a Swiss population-based sample. Methods The Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension is a family-based cross-sectional study. Office and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure were measured using validated devices. Masked hypertension was defined as office blood pressure<140/90 mmHg and daytime ambulatory blood pressure≥135/85 mmHg. White-coat hypertension was defined as office blood pressure≥140/90 mmHg and daytime ambulatory blood pressure<135/85 mmHg. Mixed-effect logistic regression was used to examine the relationship of masked and white-coat hypertension with associated factors, while taking familial correlations into account. High-normal office blood pressure was defined as systolic/diastolic blood pressure within the 130–139/85–89 mmHg range. Results Among the 652 participants included in this analysis, 51% were female. Mean age (±SD) was 48 (±18) years. The proportion of participants with masked and white coat hypertension was respectively 15.8% and 2.6%. Masked hypertension was associated with age (odds ratio (OR) = 1.02, p = 0.012), high-normal office blood pressure (OR = 6.68, p<0.001), and obesity (OR = 3.63, p = 0.001). White-coat hypertension was significantly associated with age (OR = 1.07, p<0.001) but not with education, family history of hypertension, or physical activity. Conclusions Our findings suggest that physicians should consider ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for older individuals with high-normal office blood pressure and/or who are obese.

Outcomes after endovascular or open repair for degenerative descending thoracic aortic aneurysm using linked hospital data.

BACKGROUND The population-based effectiveness of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) versus open surgery for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm remains in doubt. METHODS Patients aged over 50 years, without a history of aortic dissection, undergoing repair of a thoracic aortic aneurysm between 2006 and 2011 were assessed using mortality-linked individual patient data from Hospital Episode Statistics (England). The principal outcomes were 30-day operative mortality, long-term survival (5 years) and aortic-related reinterventions. TEVAR and open repair were compared using crude and multivariable models that adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS Overall, 759 patients underwent thoracic aortic aneurysm repair, mainly for intact aneurysms (618, 81·4 per cent). Median ages of TEVAR and open cohorts were 73 and 71 years respectively (P < 0·001), with more men undergoing TEVAR (P = 0·004). For intact aneurysms, the operative mortality rate was similar for TEVAR and open repair (6·5 versus 7·6 per cent; odds ratio 0·79, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0·41 to 1·49), but the 5-year survival rate was significantly worse after TEVAR (54·2 versus 65·6 per cent; adjusted hazard ratio 1·45, 95 per cent c.i. 1·08 to 1·94). After 5 years, aortic-related mortality was similar in the two groups, but cardiopulmonary mortality was higher after TEVAR. TEVAR was associated with more aortic-related reinterventions (23·1 versus 14·3 per cent; adjusted HR 1·70, 95 per cent c.i. 1·11 to 2·60). There were 141 procedures for ruptured thoracic aneurysm (97 TEVAR, 44 open), with TEVAR showing no significant advantage in terms of operative mortality. CONCLUSION In England, operative mortality for degenerative descending thoracic aneurysm was similar after either TEVAR or open repair. Patients who had TEVAR appeared to have a higher reintervention rate and worse long-term survival, possibly owing to cardiopulmonary morbidity and other selection bias.

Strong Impact of Smoking on Multimorbidity and Cardiovascular Risk Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Individuals in Comparison With the General Population.

Background.  Although acquired immune deficiency syndrome-associated morbidity has diminished due to excellent viral control, multimorbidity may be increasing among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons compared with the general population. Methods.  We assessed the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) compared with the population-based CoLaus study and the primary care-based FIRE (Family Medicine ICPC-Research using Electronic Medical Records) records. The incidence of the respective endpoints were assessed among SHCS and CoLaus participants. Poisson regression models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and smoking. Results.  Overall, 74 291 participants contributed data to prevalence analyses (3230 HIV-infected; 71 061 controls). In CoLaus, FIRE, and SHCS, multimorbidity was present among 26%, 13%, and 27% of participants. Compared with nonsmoking individuals from CoLaus, the incidence of cardiovascular disease was elevated among smoking individuals but independent of HIV status (HIV-negative smoking: incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2-2.5; HIV-positive smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.6; HIV-positive nonsmoking: IRR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.44-1.4). Compared with nonsmoking HIV-negative persons, multivariable Poisson regression identified associations of HIV infection with hypertension (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5-2.4; smoking: IRR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.6-2.4), kidney (nonsmoking: IRR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.9-3.8; smoking: IRR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.9-3.6), and liver disease (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4-2.4; smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.4-2.2). No evidence was found for an association of HIV-infection or smoking with diabetes mellitus. Conclusions.  Multimorbidity is more prevalent and incident in HIV-positive compared with HIV-negative individuals. Smoking, but not HIV status, has a strong impact on cardiovascular risk and multimorbidity.

Heritability of ambulatory and office blood pressure in the Swiss population

BACKGROUND Blood pressure (BP) is known to aggregate in families. Yet, heritability estimates are population-specific and no Swiss data have been published so far. We estimated the heritability of ambulatory and office BP in a Swiss population-based sample. METHODS The Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension is a population-based family study focusing on BP genetics. Office and ambulatory BP were measured in 1009 individuals from 271 nuclear families. Heritability was estimated for SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure using a maximum likelihood method implanted in the Statistical Analysis in Genetic Epidemiology software. RESULTS The 518 women and 491 men included in this analysis had a mean (±SD) age of 48.3 (±17.4) and 47.3 (±17.7) years, and a mean BMI of 23.8 (±4.2) and 25.9 (±4.1) kg/m, respectively. Narrow-sense heritability estimates (±standard error) for ambulatory SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure were 0.37 ± 0.07, 0.26 ± 0.07, and 0.29 ± 0.07 for 24-h BP; 0.39 ± 0.07, 0.28 ± 0.07, and 0.27 ± 0.07 for day BP; and 0.25 ± 0.07, 0.20 ± 0.07, and 0.30 ± 0.07 for night BP, respectively (all P < 0.001). Heritability estimates for office SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure were 0.21 ± 0.08, 0.25 ± 0.08, and 0.18 ± 0.07 (all P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS We found significant heritability estimates for both ambulatory and office BP in this Swiss population-based study. Our findings justify the ongoing search for the genetic determinants of BP.

Collaborative Research in Childhood Cancer Survivorship: The Current Landscape.

Survivors of childhood cancer carry a substantial burden of morbidity and are at increased risk for premature death. Furthermore, clear associations exist between specific therapeutic exposures and the risk for a variety of long-term complications. The entire landscape of health issues encountered for decades after successful completion of treatment is currently being explored in various collaborative research settings. These settings include large population-based or multi-institutional cohorts and single-institution studies. The ascertainment of outcomes has depended on self-reporting, linkage to registries, or clinical assessments. Survivorship research in the cooperative group setting, such as the Children's Oncology Group, has leveraged the clinical trials infrastructure to explore the molecular underpinnings of treatment-related adverse events, and to understand specific complications in the setting of randomized risk-reduction strategies. This review highlights the salient findings from these large collaborative initiatives, emphasizing the need for life-long follow-up of survivors of childhood cancer, and describing the development of several guidelines and efforts toward harmonization. Finally, the review reinforces the need to identify populations at highest risk, facilitating the development of risk prediction models that would allow for targeted interventions across the entire trajectory of survivorship.

External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.