A 22,000 14C year BP sediment and pollen record of climate change from Laguna Miscanti (23°S), northern Chile

Lake sediments and pollen, spores and algae from the high-elevation endorheic Laguna Miscanti (22°45′S, 67°45′W, 4140 m a.s.l., 13.5 km2 water surface, 10 m deep) in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile provide information about abrupt and high amplitude changes in effective moisture. Although the lack of terrestrial organic macrofossils and the presence of a significant 14C reservoir effect make radiocarbon dating of lake sediments very difficult, we propose the following palaeoenvironmental history. An initial shallow freshwater lake (ca. 22,000 14C years BP) disappeared during the extremely dry conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 18,000 14C years BP). That section is devoid of pollen. The late-glacial lake transgression started around 12,000 14C years BP, peaked in two phases between ca. 11,000 and <9000 14C years BP, and terminated around 8000 14C years BP. Effective moisture increased more than three times compared to modern conditions (∼200 mm precipitation), and a relatively dense terrestrial vegetation was established. Very shallow hypersaline lacustrine conditions prevailed during the mid-Holocene until ca. 3600 14C years BP. However, numerous drying and wetting cycles suggest frequent changes in moisture, maybe even individual storms during the mid-Holocene. After several humid spells, modern conditions were reached at ca. 3000 14C years BP. Comparison between limnogeological data and pollen of terrestrial plants suggest century-scale response lags. Relatively constant concentrations of long-distance transported pollen from lowlands east of the Andes suggest similar atmospheric circulation patterns (mainly tropical summer rainfall) throughout the entire period of time. These findings compare favorably with other regional paleoenvironmental data.

Seven years of annual pollen influx at the forest limit in the Swiss Alps studied by pollen traps: relations to vegetation and climate

Annual pollen influx has been monitored in short transects across the altitudinal tree limit in four areas of the Swiss Alps with the use of modified Tauber traps placed at the ground surface. The study areas are Grindelwald (8 traps), Aletsch (8 traps), Simplon (5 traps), and Zermatt (5 traps). The vegetation around the traps is described. The results obtained are: (1) Peak years of pollen influx (one or two in seven years) follow years of high average air temperatures during June–November of the previous year for Larix and Picea, and less clearly for Pinus non-cembra, but not at all for Pinus cembra and Alnus viridis. (2) At the upper forest limit, the regional pollen influx of trees (trees absent within 100 m of the pollen trap) relates well to the average basal area of the same taxon within 10–15 km of the study areas for Pinus cembra, Larix, and Betula, but not for Picea, Pinus non-cembra, and Alnus viridis. (3) The example of Zermatt shows that pollen influx characterises the upper forest limit, if the latter is more or less intact. (4) Presence/absence of Picea, Pinus cembra, Larix, Pinus non-cembra, and Alnus viridis trees within 50–100 m of the traps is apparent in the pollen influx in peak years of pollen influx but not in other years, suggesting that forest-limit trees produce significant amounts of pollen only in some years. (5) Pollen influx averaged over the study period correlates well with the abundance of plants around the pollen traps for conifer trees (but not deciduous trees), Calluna, Gramineae, and Cyperaceae, and less clearly so Compositae Subfam. Cichorioideae and Potentilla-type. (6) Influx of extra-regional pollen derived from south of the Alps is highest in Simplon, which is open to southerly winds, slightly lower in Aletsch lying just north of Simplon, and lowest in Zermatt sheltered from the south by high mountains and Grindelwald lying north of the central Alps.

Younger Dryas and Allerød summer temperatures at Gerzensee (Switzerland) inferred from fossil pollen and cladoceran assemblages

Linear- and unimodal-based inference models for mean summer temperatures (partial least squares, weighted averaging, and weighted averaging partial least squares models) were applied to a high-resolution pollen and cladoceran stratigraphy from Gerzensee, Switzerland. The time-window of investigation included the Allerød, the Younger Dryas, and the Preboreal. Characteristic major and minor oscillations in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, such as the Gerzensee oscillation, the onset and end of the Younger Dryas stadial, and the Preboreal oscillation, were identified by isotope analysis of bulk-sediment carbonates of the same core and were used as independent indicators for hemispheric or global scale climatic change. In general, the pollen-inferred mean summer temperature reconstruction using all three inference models follows the oxygen-isotope curve more closely than the cladoceran curve. The cladoceran-inferred reconstruction suggests generally warmer summers than the pollen-based reconstructions, which may be an effect of terrestrial vegetation not being in equilibrium with climate due to migrational lags during the Late Glacial and early Holocene. Allerød summer temperatures range between 11 and 12°C based on pollen, whereas the cladoceran-inferred temperatures lie between 11 and 13°C. Pollen and cladocera-inferred reconstructions both suggest a drop to 9–10°C at the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition lasted 150–160 years in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, the pollen-inferred cooling took 180–190 years and the cladoceran-inferred cooling lasted 250–260 years. The pollen-inferred summer temperature rise to 11.5–12°C at the transition from the Younger Dryas to the Preboreal preceded the oxygen-isotope signal by several decades, whereas the cladoceran-inferred warming lagged. Major discrepancies between the pollen- and cladoceran-inference models are observed for the Preboreal, where the cladoceran-inference model suggests mean summer temperatures of up to 14–15°C. Both pollen- and cladoceran-inferred reconstructions suggest a cooling that may be related to the Gerzensee oscillation, but there is no evidence for a cooling synchronous with the Preboreal oscillation as recorded in the oxygen-isotope record. For the Gerzensee oscillation the inferred cooling was ca. 1 and 0.5°C based on pollen and cladocera, respectively, which lies well within the inherent prediction errors of the inference models.

Palynostratigraphy of the last centuries in Switzerland based on 23 lake and mire deposits: chronostratigraphic pollen markers, regional patterns, and local histories

A total of 23 pollen diagrams [stored in the Alpine Palynological Data-Base (ALPADABA), Geobotanical Institute, Bern] cover the last 100 to over 1000 years. The sites include 15 lakes, seven mires, and one soil profile distributed in the Jura Mts (three sites), Swiss Plateau (two sites), northern Pre-Alps and Alps (six sites), central Alps (five sites), southern Alps (three sites), and southern Pre-Alps (four sites) in the western and southern part of Switzerland or just outside the national borders. The pollen diagrams have both a high taxonomic resolution and a high temporal resolution, with sampling distances of 0.5–3 cm, equivalent to 1 to 11 years for the last 100 years and 8 to 130 years for earlier periods. The chronology is based on absolute dating (14 sites: 210Pb 11 sites; 14C six sites; varve counting two sites) or on biostratigraphic correlation among pollen diagrams. The latter relies mainly on trends in Cannabis sativa, Ambrosia, Mercurialis annua, and Ostrya-type pollen. Individual pollen stratigraphies are discussed and sites are compared within each region. The principle of designating local, extra-local, and regional pollen signals and vegetation is exemplified by two pairs of sites lying close together. Trends in biostratigraphies shared by a major part of the pollen diagrams allow the following generalisations. Forest declined in phases since medieval times up to the late 19th century. Abies and Fagus declined consistently, whereas the behaviour of short-lived trees and trees of moist habitats differed among sites (Alnus glutinosa-type, Alnus viridis, Betula, Corylus avellana). In the present century, however, Picea and Pinus increased, followed by Fraxinus excelsior in the second half of this century. Grassland (traced by Gramineae and Plantago lanceolata-type pollen) increased, replacing much of the forest, and declined again in the second half of this century. Nitrate enrichment of the vegetation (traced by Urtica) took place in the first half of this century. These trends reflect the intensification of forest use and the expansion of grassland from medieval times up to the end of the last century, whereas subsequently parts of the grassland became used more intensively and the marginal parts were abandoned for forest regrowth. In most pollen diagrams human impact is the dominant factor in explaining inferred changes in vegetation, but climatic change plays a role at three sites.

The influence of students' prior clinical skills and context characteristics on mini-CEX scores in clerkships - a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND In contrast to objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs), mini-clinical evaluation exercises (mini-CEXs) take place at the clinical workplace. As both mini-CEXs and OSCEs assess clinical skills, but within different contexts, this study aims at analyzing to which degree students' mini-CEX scores can be predicted by their recent OSCE scores and/or context characteristics. METHODS Medical students participated in an end of Year 3 OSCE and in 11 mini-CEXs during 5 different clerkships of Year 4. The students' mean scores of 9 clinical skills OSCE stations and mean 'overall' and 'domain' mini-CEX scores, averaged over all mini-CEXs of each student were computed. Linear regression analyses including random effects were used to predict mini-CEX scores by OSCE performance and characteristics of clinics, trainers, students and assessments. RESULTS A total of 512 trainers in 45 clinics provided 1783 mini-CEX ratings for 165 students; OSCE results were available for 144 students (87 %). Most influential for the prediction of 'overall' mini-CEX scores was the trainers' clinical position with a regression coefficient of 0.55 (95 %-CI: 0.26-0.84; p < .001) for residents compared to heads of department. Highly complex tasks and assessments taking place in large clinics significantly enhanced 'overall' mini-CEX scores, too. In contrast, high OSCE performance did not significantly increase 'overall' mini-CEX scores. CONCLUSION In our study, Mini-CEX scores depended rather on context characteristics than on students' clinical skills as demonstrated in an OSCE. Ways are discussed which focus on either to enhance the scores' validity or to use narrative comments only.

Impact of Hybrid Iterative Reconstruction on Agatston Coronary Artery Calcium Scores in Comparison to Filtered Back Projection in Native Cardiac CT

PURPOSE To investigate whether the effects of hybrid iterative reconstruction (HIR) on coronary artery calcium (CAC) measurements using the Agatston score lead to changes in assignment of patients to cardiovascular risk groups compared to filtered back projection (FBP). MATERIALS AND METHODS 68 patients (mean age 61.5 years; 48 male; 20 female) underwent prospectively ECG-gated, non-enhanced, cardiac 256-MSCT for coronary calcium scoring. Scanning parameters were as follows: Tube voltage, 120 kV; Mean tube current time-product 63.67 mAs (50 - 150 mAs); collimation, 2 × 128 × 0.625 mm. Images were reconstructed with FBP and with HIR at all levels (L1 to L7). Two independent readers measured Agatston scores of all reconstructions and assigned patients to cardiovascular risk groups. Scores of HIR and FBP reconstructions were correlated (Spearman). Interobserver agreement and variability was assessed with ĸ-statistics and Bland-Altmann-Plots. RESULTS Agatston scores of HIR reconstructions were closely correlated with FBP reconstructions (L1, R = 0.9996; L2, R = 0.9995; L3, R = 0.9991; L4, R = 0.986; L5, R = 0.9986; L6, R = 0.9987; and L7, R = 0.9986). In comparison to FBP, HIR led to reduced Agatston scores between 97 % (L1) and 87.4 % (L7) of the FBP values. Using HIR iterations L1 - L3, all patients were assigned to identical risk groups as after FPB reconstruction. In 5.4 % of patients the risk group after HIR with the maximum iteration level was different from the group after FBP reconstruction. CONCLUSION There was an excellent correlation of Agatston scores after HIR and FBP with identical risk group assignment at levels 1 - 3 for all patients. Hence it appears that the application of HIR in routine calcium scoring does not entail any disadvantages. Thus, future studies are needed to demonstrate whether HIR is a reliable method for reducing radiation dose in coronary calcium scoring.

Pollen and charcoal in lake sediments compared with historically documented forest fires in southern Switzerland since AD 1920

Charcoal in unlaminated sediments dated by 210Pb was analysed by the pollen-slide and thin-section methods. The results were compared with the number and area of forest fires on different spatial scales in the area around Lago di Origlio as listed in the wildfire database of southern Switzerland since AD 1920. The influx of the number of charcoal particles > 75 µm2 in pollen slides correlates well with the number of annual forest fires recorded within a distance of 20-50 km from the coring site. Hence a size-class distinction or an area measurement by image analysis may not be absolutely necessary for the reconstruction of regional fire history. A regression equation was computed and tested against an independent data set. Its use makes it possible to estimate the charcoal area influx (or concentration) from the particle number influx (or concentration). Local fires within a radius of 2 km around the coring site correlate well with the area influx of charcoal particles estimated by the thin-section method measuring the area of charcoal particles larger than 20 000 µm2 or longer than 50 µm. Pollen percentages and influx values suggest that intensive agriculture and Castanea sativa cultivation were reduced 30-40 years ago, followed by an increase of forest area and a development to more natural woodlands. The traditional Castanea sativa cultivation was characterized by a complete use of the biomass produced, so abandonment of chestnut led to an increasing accumulation of dead biomass, thereby raising the fire risk. On the other hand, the pollen record of the regional vegetation does not show any clear response to the increase of fire frequency during the last three decades in this area.

Treeline Fluctuations Recorded for 12,500 Years by Soil Profiles, Pollen, and Plant Macrofossils in the Central Swiss Alps

Past treelines can rarely be recorded by pollen percentages alone, but pollen concentration, pollen influx, and plant macrofossils (including stomata of conifers) are more reliable indicators. In addition, ancient forest soils above today's treeline may trace the maximum upper expansion of the forest since the last glaciation. Charcoal in such soil profiles may be radiocarbon dated. Our example from the Central Swiss Alps at the Alpe d'Essertse consists of a plant-macrofossil diagram and pollen diagrams of the pond Gouille Rion at 2343 m a.s.l. and a sequence of soil profiles from 1780 m to 2600 m a.s.l. The area around the pond was forested with LariJc decidua and Pinus cembra between 9500 and 3600 BP. After 4700 BP the forest became more open and Juniperus nana and Alnus viridis expanded (together with Picea abies in the subalpine forest). Between 1700 and 900 BP the Juniperus nana and Alnus viridis scrubs declined while meadows and pastures took over, so that the pond Gouille Rion was definitively above timber­ line. The highest Holocene treeline was at 2400 to 2450 m a.s.l. (i.e. 50 to 100 m higher than the uppermost single specimen of Pinus cembra today) between 9000 and 4700 BP, but it is not yet dated in more detail. The highest charcoal of Pinus cembra at 2380 m a.s.l. has a radiocarbon date of 6010 ± 70 BP. Around 6900 BP a strong climatic deterioration caused an opening of timberline forest. First indicators of anthropogenic influence occurred at 4700 BP, when the forest limit started to move down. The lowering of timberline after 4700 BP was probably due to combined effects of human and climatic impact.

Incremental Value of the CRUSADE, ACUITY, and HAS-BLED Risk Scores for the Prediction of Hemorrhagic Events After Coronary Stent Implantation in Patients Undergoing Long or Short Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy

BACKGROUND Multiple scores have been proposed to stratify bleeding risk, but their value to guide dual antiplatelet therapy duration has never been appraised. We compared the performance of the CRUSADE (Can Rapid Risk Stratification of Unstable Angina Patients Suppress Adverse Outcomes With Early Implementation of the ACC/AHA Guidelines), ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy), and HAS-BLED (Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly) scores in 1946 patients recruited in the Prolonging Dual Antiplatelet Treatment After Grading Stent-Induced Intimal Hyperplasia Study (PRODIGY) and assessed hemorrhagic and ischemic events in the 24- and 6-month dual antiplatelet therapy groups. METHODS AND RESULTS Bleeding score performance was assessed with a Cox regression model and C statistics. Discriminative and reclassification power was assessed with net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. The C statistic was similar between the CRUSADE score (area under the curve 0.71) and ACUITY (area under the curve 0.68), and higher than HAS-BLED (area under the curve 0.63). CRUSADE, but not ACUITY, improved reclassification (net reclassification index 0.39, P=0.005) and discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement index 0.0083, P=0.021) of major bleeding compared with HAS-BLED. Major bleeding and transfusions were higher in the 24- versus 6-month dual antiplatelet therapy groups in patients with a CRUSADE score >40 (hazard ratio for bleeding 2.69, P=0.035; hazard ratio for transfusions 4.65, P=0.009) but not in those with CRUSADE score ≤40 (hazard ratio for bleeding 1.50, P=0.25; hazard ratio for transfusions 1.37, P=0.44), with positive interaction (Pint=0.05 and Pint=0.01, respectively). The number of patients with high CRUSADE scores needed to treat for harm for major bleeding and transfusion were 17 and 15, respectively, with 24-month rather than 6-month dual antiplatelet therapy; corresponding figures in the overall population were 67 and 71, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our analysis suggests that the CRUSADE score predicts major bleeding similarly to ACUITY and better than HAS BLED in an all-comer population with percutaneous coronary intervention and potentially identifies patients at higher risk of hemorrhagic complications when treated with a long-term dual antiplatelet therapy regimen. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00611286.

The palaeolimnology of Soppensee (Central Switzerlabnd), as evidenced by diatom, pollen, and fossil-pigment analyses

The development of Soppensee (Central Switzerland, 596 m a.s.l.) has been reconstructed using algal remains such as diatoms, chlorophytes and fossil pigments, as well as the pollen and spores of macrophytes. Sediment accumulation in Soppensee began at the end of the last glacial period, approximately 15,000 yrs ago. During the Oldest Dryas biozone (> 12,700 radiocarbon yrs B.P.) the lake had low primary productivity. After reforestation with birch and later pine, around 12,700 B.P., phases of summer anoxia occurred in the lake. These anoxic conditions were most probably caused by additional carbon input from the catchment, as well as longer phases of stratification due to reduced wind exposure caused by the sheltering effect of increased tree cover. From the Younger Dryas biozone (10,800 to 10,000 radiocarbon yrs B.P.) onwards, Soppensee became meromictic for several millennia.

Plant genotype affects the quality of oilseed rape (Brassica napus) for adults and larvae of the pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus)

Plant quality is one of the main factors influencing the fitness of phytophagous insects. Plant quality can vary not only among genotypes of the same host plant species, but also relative to the insect sex or its life stage. In the present study, the performance of larvae and adults of the pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus F., Coleoptera: Nitidulidae), a major insect pest of oilseed rape crops, is compared on six genotypes of oilseed rape (Brassica napus). All of the traits that are measured vary among genotypes, and comprise larval developmental duration, life span of unfed emerging adults and survival time of field-sampled adults fed with pollen from the different genotypes. No correlation is found between insect performance and quantity of food available, showing that the quality of the food (i.e. pollen) is the fitness determinant for this insect species. Additionally, the performance of larvae and adults is also not correlated despite use of the same plant genotypes, suggesting that the determinants of pollen quality differ at least partially between both life stages. It is hypothesized that this may be a result of extensive differences in diet breadth between the life stages: larvae are specialists of brassicaceous plants, whereas adults are generalists. Finally, it is suggested that the manipulation of plant quality to increase pollen beetle development time may comprise a valuable strategy for favouring biological control by natural enemies of this pest; for example, as a result of extending the vulnerability window of larvae to attack by parasitoids.

Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation history and dynamics as shown by pollen and plant macrofossil analyses in annually laminated sediments from Soppensee, central Switzerland

The palynostratigraphy of two sediment cores from Soppensee, Central Switzerland (596 m asl) was correlated with nine regional pollen assemblage zones defined for the Swiss Plateau. This biostratigraphy shows that the sedimentary record of Soppensee includes the last 15 000 years, i.e. the entire Late-glacial and Holocene environmental history. The vegetation history of the Soppensee catchment was inferred by pollen and plant-macrofossil analyses on three different cores taken in the deepest part of the lake basin (27 m). On the basis of a high-resolution varve and calibrated radiocarbonchronology it was possible to estimate pollen accumulation rates, which together with the pollen percentage data, formed the basis for the interpretation of the past vegetation dynamics. The basal sediment dates back to the last glacial. After reforestation with juniper and birch at ca. 12 700 B.P., the vegetation changed at around 12 000 B.P. to a pine-birch woodland and at the onset of the Holocene to a mixed deciduous forest. At ca. 7000 B.P., fir expanded and dominated the vegetation with beech becoming predominant at ca. 50014C-years later until sometime during the Iron Age. Large-scale deforestation, especially during the Middle Ages, altered the vegetation cover drastically. During the Late-glacial period two distinct regressive phases in vegetation development are demonstrated, namely, the Aegelsee oscillation (equivalent to the Older Dryas biozone) and the Younger Dryas biozone. No unambiguous evidence for Holocene climatic change was detected at Soppensee. Human presence is indicated by early cereal pollen and distinct pulses of forest clearance as a result of human activity can be observed from the Neolithic period onwards.