Neural correlates of evaluating hazards of high risk.

In personal and in society related context, people often evaluate the risk of environmental and technological hazards. Previous research addressing neuroscience of risk evaluation assessed particularly the direct personal risk of presented stimuli, which may have comprised for instance aspects of fear. Further, risk evaluation primarily was compared to tasks of other cognitive domains serving as control conditions, thus revealing general risk related brain activity, but not such specifically associated with estimating a higher level of risk. We here investigated the neural basis on which lay-persons individually evaluated the risk of different potential hazards for the society. Twenty healthy subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while evaluating the risk of fifty more or less risky conditions presented as written terms. Brain activations during the individual estimations of 'high' against 'low' risk, and of negative versus neutral and positive emotional valences were analyzed. Estimating hazards to be of high risk was associated with activation in medial thalamus, anterior insula, caudate nucleus, cingulate cortex and further prefrontal and temporo-occipital areas. These areas were not involved according to an analysis of the emotion ratings. In conclusion, we emphasize a contribution of the mentioned brain areas involved to signal high risk, here not primarily associated with the emotional valence of the risk items. These areas have earlier been reported to be associated with, beside emotional, viscerosensitive and implicit processing. This leads to assumptions of an intuitive contribution, or a "gut-feeling", not necessarily dependent of the subjective emotional valence, when estimating a high risk of environmental hazards.

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m 3 s-1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m 3 s -1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Small quantity but large effect — How minor phases control strain localization in upper mantle shear zones

Low viscosity domains such as localized shear zones exert an important control on the geodynamics of the uppermost mantle. Grain size reduction and subsequent strain localization related to a switch from dislocation to diffusion creep is one mechanism to form low viscosity domains. To sustain strain localization, the grain size of mantle minerals needs to be kept small over geological timescales. One way to keep olivine grain sizes small is by pinning of mobile grain boundaries during grain growth by other minerals (second phases). Detailed microstructural studies based on natural samples from three shear zones formed at different geodynamic settings, allowed the derivation of the olivine grain-size dependence on the second-phase content. The polymineralic olivine grain-size evolution with increasing strain is similar in the three shear zones. If the second phases are to pin the mobile olivine grain boundary the phases need to be well mixed before grain growth. We suggest that melt-rock and metamorphic reactions are crucial for the initial phase mixing in mantle rocks. With ongoing deformation and increasing strain, grain boundary sliding combined with mass transfer processes and nucleation of grains promotes phase mixing resulting in fine-grained polymineralic mixtures that deform by diffusion creep. Strain localization due to the presence of volumetrically minor minerals in polymineralic mantle rocks is only important at high strain deformation (ultramylonites) at low temperatures (<~800°C). At smaller strain and stress conditions and/or higher temperatures other parameters like overall energy available to deform a given rock volume, the inheritance of mechanical anisotropies or the presence of water or melts needs to be considered to explain strain localization in the upper mantle.