Theoretical framework for the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change [in Europe]

Reducing risk that emerges from hazards of natural origin and societal vulnerability is a key challenge for the development of more resilient communities and the overall goal of sustainable development. The following chapter outlines a framework for multidimensional, holistic vulnerability assessment that is understood as part of risk evaluation and risk management in the context of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). As a heuristic, the framework is a thinking tool to guide systematic assessments of vulnerability and to provide a basis for comparative indicators and criteria development to assess key factors and various dimensions of vulnerability, particularly in regions in Europe, however, it can also be applied in other world regions. The framework has been developed within the context of the research project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe; ) sponsored by the European Commission within the framework of the FP 7 program.

Individual differences in working memory capacity explain the relationship between general discrimination ability and psychometric intelligence

The close association between psychometric intelligence and general discrimination ability (GDA), conceptualized as latent variable derived from performance on different sensory discrimination tasks, is empirically well-established but theoretically widely unclear. The present study contrasted two alternative explanations for this association. The first explanation is based on what Spearman (1904) referred to as a central function underlying this relationship in the sense of the g factor of intelligence and becoming most evident in GDA. In this case, correlations between different aspects of cognitive abilities, such as working memory (WM) capacity, and psychometric intelligence should be mediated by GDA if their correlation is caused by g. Alternatively, the second explanation for the relationship between psychometric intelligence and GDA proceeds from fMRI studies which emphasize the role of WM functioning for sensory discrimination. Given the well-known relationship between WM and psychometric intelligence, the relationship between GDA and psychometric intelligence might be attributed to WM. The present study investigated these two alternative explanations at the level of latent variables. In 197 young adults, a model in which WM mediated the relationship between GDA and psychometric intelligence described the data better than a model in which GDA mediated the relationship between WM and psychometric intelligence. Moreover, GDA failed to explain portions of variance of psychometric intelligence above and beyond WM. These findings clearly support the view that the association between psychometric intelligence and GDA must be understood in terms of WM functioning.

Ultrasound evaluation of synovitis in RA: correlation with clinical disease activity and sensitivity to change in an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the correlation between clinical measures of disease activity and a ultrasound (US) scoring system for synovitis applied by many different ultrasonographers in a daily routine care setting within the Swiss registry for RA (SCQM) and further to determine the sensitivity to change of this US Score. METHODS One hundred and eight Swiss rheumatologists were trained in performing the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) score. US B-mode and Power Doppler (PwD) scores were correlated with DAS28 and compared between the clinical categories in a cross-sectional cohort of patients. In patients with a second US (longitudinal cohort), we investigated if change in US score correlated with change in DAS and evaluated the responsiveness of both methods. RESULTS In the cross-sectional cohort with 536 patients, correlation between the B-mode score and DAS28 was significant but modest (Pearson coefficient r = 0.41, P < 0.0001). The same was true for the PwD score (r = 0.41, P < 0.0001). In the longitudinal cohort with 183 patients we also found a significant correlation between change in B-mode and in PwD score with change in DAS28 (r = 0.54, P < 0.0001 and r = 0.46, P < 0.0001, respectively). Both methods of evaluation (DAS and US) showed similar responsiveness according to standardized response mean (SRM). CONCLUSIONS The SONAR Score is practicable and was applied by many rheumatologists in daily routine care after initial training. It demonstrates significant correlations with the degree of as well as change in disease activity as measured by DAS. On the level of the individual, the US score shows many discrepancies and overlapping results exist.

Change in physical activity after smoking cessation: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study

AIMS To estimate physical activity trajectories for people who quit smoking, and compare them to what would have been expected had smoking continued. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 5115 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) study, a population-based study of African American and European American people recruited at age 18-30 years in 1985/6 and followed over 25 years. MEASUREMENTS Physical activity was self-reported during clinical examinations at baseline (1985/6) and at years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (2010/11); smoking status was reported each year (at examinations or by telephone, and imputed where missing). We used mixed linear models to estimate trajectories of physical activity under varying smoking conditions, with adjustment for participant characteristics and secular trends. FINDINGS We found significant interactions by race/sex (P = 0.02 for the interaction with cumulative years of smoking), hence we investigated the subgroups separately. Increasing years of smoking were associated with a decline in physical activity in black and white women and black men [e.g. coefficient for 10 years of smoking: -0.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20 to -0.07, P < 0.001 for white women]. An increase in physical activity was associated with years since smoking cessation in white men (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI = 0 to 0.13, P = 0.05). The physical activity trajectory for people who quit diverged progressively towards higher physical activity from the expected trajectory had smoking continued. For example, physical activity was 34% higher (95% CI = 18 to 52%; P < 0.001) for white women 10 years after stopping compared with continuing smoking for those 10 years (P = 0.21 for race/sex differences). CONCLUSIONS Smokers who quit have progressively higher levels of physical activity in the years after quitting compared with continuing smokers.

Coalition Structures and Policy Change in a Consensus Democracy

This paper studies the relation between coalition structures in policy processes and policy change. While different factors such as policy images, learning processes, external events, or venue shopping are important to explain policy change, coalition structures within policy processes are often neglected. However, policy change happens as a result of negotiations and coordination among coalitions within policy processes. The paper analyzes how conflict, collaboration, and power relations among coalitions of actors influence policy change in an institutional context of a consensus democracy. Empirically, I rely on a Qualitative Comparative Analysis to conduct a cross-sector comparison of the 11 most important policy processes in Switzerland between 2001 and 2006. Coalition structures with low conflict and strong collaboration among coalitions as well as structures with dominant coalitions and weak collaboration both facilitate major policy change. Competing coalitions that are separated by strong conflict but still collaborate strongly produce policy outputs that are close to the status quo.

A Missense Change in the ATG4D Gene Links Aberrant Autophagy to a Neurodegenerative Vacuolar Storage Disease.

Inherited neurodegenerative disorders are debilitating diseases that occur across different species. We have performed clinical, pathological and genetic studies to characterize a novel canine neurodegenerative disease present in the Lagotto Romagnolo dog breed. Affected dogs suffer from progressive cerebellar ataxia, sometimes accompanied by episodic nystagmus and behavioral changes. Histological examination revealed unique pathological changes, including profound neuronal cytoplasmic vacuolization in the nervous system, as well as spheroid formation and cytoplasmic aggregation of vacuoles in secretory epithelial tissues and mesenchymal cells. Genetic analyses uncovered a missense change, c.1288G>A; p.A430T, in the autophagy-related ATG4D gene on canine chromosome 20 with a highly significant disease association (p = 3.8 x 10-136) in a cohort of more than 2300 Lagotto Romagnolo dogs. ATG4D encodes a poorly characterized cysteine protease belonging to the macroautophagy pathway. Accordingly, our histological analyses indicated altered autophagic flux in affected tissues. The knockdown of the zebrafish homologue atg4da resulted in a widespread developmental disturbance and neurodegeneration in the central nervous system. Our study describes a previously unknown canine neurological disease with particular pathological features and implicates the ATG4D protein as an important autophagy mediator in neuronal homeostasis. The canine phenotype serves as a model to delineate the disease-causing pathological mechanism(s) and ATG4D function, and can also be used to explore treatment options. Furthermore, our results reveal a novel candidate gene for human neurodegeneration and enable the development of a genetic test for veterinary diagnostic and breeding purposes.

Resilient Adaptation to Climate Change in African Agriculture

Africa’s agriculture faces varying climate change impacts which mainly worsen production conditions and adversely affect its economies. Adaptations thus need to build the resilience of farming systems. Using “resilient adaptation” as a concept, this study analyses how adaptations at farm and policy/institutional-levels contribute to the resilience of Sub-Saharan African agriculture. The developed tool, “the Resilience Check”, provides socio-economic data which complements existing adaptation tools. The underlying development gaps such as insecure property rights, poverty, low self-organisation, inadequate climate data and infrastructure limit resilient adaptations. If farmers could implement recommended practices, existing measures and improved crops can address most impacts expected in the medium-term. However, resource use efficiency remains critical for all farm management types. Development-oriented adaptation measures are needed to provide the robust foundations for building resilience. Reaching the very poor remains a challenge and the externally driven nature of many interventions raises concern about their sustainability. The study recommends practical measures such as decentralising various services and integrating the action plans of the multilateral environmental agreements into one national action plan.

Drought coping and adaptation strategies: Understanding adaptations to climate change in agro-pastoral livestock production in Makueni district, Kenya

Using drought as a lens, this article analyses how agro-pastoralists in Makueni district, Kenya adapt their livestock production to climate variability and change. Data were collected from a longitudinal survey of 127 agro-pastoral households. Approximately one-third of the households have inadequate feeds, and livestock diseases are major challenges during non-drought and drought periods. Agro-pastoralists’ responses to drought are reactive and mainly involve intensifying exploitation of resources and the commons. Proactive responses such as improving production resources are few. Poverty, limited responses to market dynamics and inadequate skills constrain adaptations. Many agro-pastoralists’ attachment to livestock deters livestock divestment, favouring disadvantageous sales that result in declining incomes. To improve adaptive capacity, interventions should expose agro-pastoralists to other forms of savings, incorporate agro-pastoralists as agents of change by building their capacity to provide extension services, and maintain infrastructure. Securing livestock mobility, pasture production and access is crucial under the variable social-ecological conditions.