Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium.

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

Effects of climate, fire, and humans on forest dynamics: forest simulations compared to the palaeological record

In order to find out which factors influenced the forest dynamics in northern Italy during the Holocene, a palaeoecological approach involving pollen analysis was combined with ecosystem modelling. The dynamic and distribution based forest model DisCForm was run with different input scenarios for climate, species immigration, fire, and human impact and the similarity of the simulations with the original pollen record was assessed. From the comparisons of the model output and the pollen core, it appears that immigration was most important in the first part of the Holocene, and that fire and human activity had a major influence in the second half. Species not well represented in the simulation outputs are species with a higher abundance in the past than today (Corylus), with their habitat in riparian forests (Alnus) or with a strong response to human impact (Castanea).

Self-consistent multifluid MHD simulations of Europa's exospheric interaction with Jupiter's magnetosphere

The Jovian moon, Europa, hosts a thin neutral gas atmosphere, which is tightly coupled to Jupiter's magnetosphere. Magnetospheric ions impacting the surface sputter off neutral atoms, which, upon ionization, carry currents that modify the magnetic field around the moon. The magnetic field in the plasma is also affected by Europa's induced magnetic field. In this paper we investigate the environment of Europa using our multifluid MHD model and focus on the effects introduced by both the magnetospheric and the pickup ion populations. The model self-consistently derives the electron temperature that governs the electron impact ionization process, which is the major source of ionization in this environment. The resulting magnetic field is compared to measurements performed by the Galileo magnetometer, the bulk properties of the modeled thermal plasma population is compared to the Galileo Plasma Subsystem observations, and the modeled surface precipitation fluxes are compared to Galileo Ultraviolet Spectrometer observations. The model shows good agreement with the measured magnetic field and reproduces the basic features of the plasma interaction observed at the moon for both the E4 and the E26 flybys of the Galileo spacecraft. The simulation also produces perturbations asymmetric about the flow direction that account for observed asymmetries.

Nonlinear quasi-static finite element simulations predict in vitro strength of human proximal femora assessed in a dynamic sideways fall setup

Osteoporotic proximal femur fractures are caused by low energy trauma, typically when falling on the hip from standing height. Finite element simulations, widely used to predict the fracture load of femora in fall, usually include neither mass-related inertial effects, nor the viscous part of bone's material behavior. The aim of this study was to elucidate if quasi-static non-linear homogenized finite element analyses can predict in vitro mechanical properties of proximal femora assessed in dynamic drop tower experiments. The case-specific numerical models of thirteen femora predicted the strength (R2=0.84, SEE=540 N, 16.2%), stiffness (R2=0.82, SEE=233 N/mm, 18.0%) and fracture energy (R2=0.72, SEE=3.85 J, 39.6%); and provided fair qualitative matches with the fracture patterns. The influence of material anisotropy was negligible for all predictions. These results suggest that quasi-static homogenized finite element analysis may be used to predict mechanical properties of proximal femora in the dynamic sideways fall situation.

Nucleon and pion structure with lattice QCD simulations at physical value of the pion mass

We present results on the nucleon scalar, axial, and tensor charges as well as on the momentum fraction, and the helicity and transversity moments. The pion momentum fraction is also presented. The computation of these key observables is carried out using lattice QCD simulations at a physical value of the pion mass. The evaluation is based on gauge configurations generated with two degenerate sea quarks of twisted mass fermions with a clover term. We investigate excited states contributions with the nucleon quantum numbers by analyzing three sink-source time separations. We find that, for the scalar charge, excited states contribute significantly and to a less degree to the nucleon momentum fraction and helicity moment. Our result for the nucleon axial charge agrees with the experimental value. Furthermore, we predict a value of 1.027(62) in the MS¯¯¯¯¯ scheme at 2 GeV for the isovector nucleon tensor charge directly at the physical point. The pion momentum fraction is found to be ⟨x⟩π±u−d=0.214(15)(+12−9) in the MS¯¯¯¯¯ at 2 GeV.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Progress in Simulations with Twisted Mass Fermions at the Physical Point

In this contribution, results from Nf = 2 lattice QCD simulations at one lattice spacing using twisted mass fermions with a clover term at the physical pion mass are presented. The mass splitting between charged and neutral pions (including the disconnected contribution) is shown to be around 20(20) MeV. Further, a first measurement using the clover twisted mass action of the average momentum fraction of the pion is given. Finally, an analysis of pseudoscalar meson masses and decay constants is presented involving linear interpolations in strange and charm quark masses. Matching to meson mass ratios allows the calculation of quark mass ratios: ms=ml = 27:63(13), mc=ml = 339:6(2:2) and mc=ms = 12:29(10). From this mass matching the quantities fK = 153:9(7:5) MeV, fD = 219(11) MeV, fDs = 255(12) MeV and MDs = 1894(93) MeV are determined without the application of finite volume or discretization artefact corrections and with errors dominated by a preliminary estimate of the lattice spacing.

Computer simulations of sample preconcentration in carrier-free systems and isoelectric focusing in microchannels using simple ampholytes.

In this work, electrophoretic preconcentration of protein and peptide samples in microchannels was studied theoretically using the 1D dynamic simulator GENTRANS, and experimentally combined with MS. In all configurations studied, the sample was uniformly distributed throughout the channel before power application, and driving electrodes were used as microchannel ends. In the first part, previously obtained experimental results from carrier-free systems are compared to simulation results, and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide and impurities in the sample solution are examined. Simulation provided insight into the dynamics of the transport of all components under the applied electric field and revealed the formation of a pure water zone in the channel center. In the second part, the use of an IEF procedure with simple well defined amphoteric carrier components, i.e. amino acids, for concentration and fractionation of peptides was investigated. By performing simulations a qualitative description of the analyte behavior in this system was obtained. Neurotensin and [Glu1]-Fibrinopeptide B were separated by IEF in microchannels featuring a liquid lid for simple sample handling and placement of the driving electrodes. Component distributions in the channel were detected using MALDI- and nano-ESI-MS and data were in agreement with those obtained by simulation. Dynamic simulations are demonstrated to represent an effective tool to investigate the electrophoretic behavior of all components in the microchannel.