Palynological richness and evenness: insights from the taxa accumulation curve

Palynology provides the opportunity to make inferences on changes in diversity of terrestrial vegetation over long time scales. The often coarse taxonomic level achievable in pollen analysis, differences in pollen production and dispersal, and the lack of pollen source boundaries hamper the application of diversity indices to palynology. Palynological richness, the number of pollen types at a constant pollen count, is the most robust and widely used diversity indicator for pollen data. However, this index is also influenced by the abundance distribution of pollen types in sediments. In particular, where the index is calculated by rarefaction analysis, information on taxonomic richness at low abundance may be lost. Here we explore information that can be extracted from the accumulation of taxa over consecutive samples. The log-transformed taxa accumulation curve can be broken up into linear sections with different slope and intersect parameters, describing the accumulation of new taxa within the section. The breaking points may indicate changes in the species pool or in the abundance of high versus low pollen producers. Testing this concept on three pollen diagrams from different landscapes, we find that the break points in the taxa accumulation curves provide convenient zones for identifying changes in richness and evenness. The linear regressions over consecutive samples can be used to inter- and extrapolate to low or extremely high pollen counts, indicating evenness and richness in taxonomic composition within these zones. An evenness indicator, based on the rank-order-abundance is used to assist in the evaluation of the results and the interpretation of the fossil records. Two central European pollen diagrams show major changes in the taxa accumulation curves for the Lateglacial period and the time of human induced land-use changes, while they do not indicate strong changes in the species pool with the onset of the Holocene. In contrast, a central Swedish pollen diagram shows comparatively little change, but high richness during the early Holocene forest establishment. Evenness and palynological richness are related for most periods in the three diagrams, however, sections before forest establishment and after forest clearance show high evenness, which is not necessarily accompanied by high palynological richness, encouraging efforts to separate the two.

Diurnal cycle of fossil and nonfossil carbon using radiocarbon analyses during CalNex

Radiocarbon (14C) analysis is a unique tool to distinguish fossil/nonfossil sources of carbonaceous aerosols. We present 14C measurements of organic carbon (OC) and total carbon (TC) on highly time resolved filters (3–4 h, typically 12 h or longer have been reported) from 7 days collected during California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 in Pasadena. Average nonfossil contributions of 58% ± 15% and 51% ± 15% were found for OC and TC, respectively. Results indicate that nonfossil carbon is a major constituent of the background aerosol, evidenced by its nearly constant concentration (2–3 μgC m−3). Cooking is estimated to contribute at least 25% to nonfossil OC, underlining the importance of urban nonfossil OC sources. In contrast, fossil OC concentrations have prominent and consistent diurnal profiles, with significant afternoon enhancements (~3 μgC m−3), following the arrival of the western Los Angeles (LA) basin plume with the sea breeze. A corresponding increase in semivolatile oxygenated OC and organic vehicular emission markers and their photochemical reaction products occurs. This suggests that the increasing OC is mostly from fresh anthropogenic secondary OC (SOC) from mainly fossil precursors formed in the western LA basin plume. We note that in several European cities where the diesel passenger car fraction is higher, SOC is 20% less fossil, despite 2–3 times higher elemental carbon concentrations, suggesting that SOC formation from gasoline emissions most likely dominates over diesel in the LA basin. This would have significant implications for our understanding of the on-road vehicle contribution to ambient aerosols and merits further study.

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomized trials: principles and pitfalls

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses allow for a more transparent and objective appraisal of the evidence. They may decrease the number of false-negative results and prevent delays in the introduction of effective interventions into clinical practice. However, as for any other tool, their misuse can result in severely misleading results. In this article, we discuss the main steps that should be taken when conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses, namely the preparation of a review protocol, identification of eligible trials, and data extraction, pooling of treatment effects across trials, investigation of potential reasons for differences in treatment effects across trials, and complete reporting of the review methods and findings. We also discuss common pitfalls that should be avoided, including the use of quality assessment tools to derive summary quality scores, pooling of data across trials as if they belonged to a single large trial, and inappropriate uses of meta-regression that could result in misleading estimates of treatment effects because of regression to the mean or the ecological fallacy. If conducted and reported properly, systematic reviews and meta-analyses will increase our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the available evidence, which may eventually facilitate clinical decision making.

The roles of religiosity and affluence for adolescents' family orientation: Multilevel analyses of 18 cultures

Recent sociological and psychological debates concern the nature of the relation between changing religious beliefs and changing significance of the family. The current study analyzes multilevel relations between religiosity (personal and culture-level) and several aspects of family orientation for n = 4902 adolescents from 18 nations/areas from diverse cultural contexts covering a number of religious denominations with data from the Value-of-Children-Study (Trommsdorff & Nauck, 2005). In addition, cultural values from the World Values Survey representing religious versus secular values as well as survival versus self- expression values are examined at the cultural level of analysis as a joint effect with nation-level economic development. Results showed that religiosity/religious values were positively related to all aspects of adolescents’ family orientation at the individual as well as the cultural level, while societal affluence was only related to a loss of importance of the traditional and hierarchical aspects of family orientation. Postmaterialist self-expression values were unrelated to adolescents’ family orientation.

Subgroup analyses in randomised controlled trials: cohort study on trial protocols and journal publications.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the planning of subgroup analyses in protocols of randomised controlled trials and the agreement with corresponding full journal publications. DESIGN Cohort of protocols of randomised controlled trial and subsequent full journal publications. SETTING Six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. DATA SOURCES 894 protocols of randomised controlled trial involving patients approved by participating research ethics committees between 2000 and 2003 and 515 subsequent full journal publications. RESULTS Of 894 protocols of randomised controlled trials, 252 (28.2%) included one or more planned subgroup analyses. Of those, 17 (6.7%) provided a clear hypothesis for at least one subgroup analysis, 10 (4.0%) anticipated the direction of a subgroup effect, and 87 (34.5%) planned a statistical test for interaction. Industry sponsored trials more often planned subgroup analyses compared with investigator sponsored trials (195/551 (35.4%) v 57/343 (16.6%), P<0.001). Of 515 identified journal publications, 246 (47.8%) reported at least one subgroup analysis. In 81 (32.9%) of the 246 publications reporting subgroup analyses, authors stated that subgroup analyses were prespecified, but this was not supported by 28 (34.6%) corresponding protocols. In 86 publications, authors claimed a subgroup effect, but only 36 (41.9%) corresponding protocols reported a planned subgroup analysis. CONCLUSIONS Subgroup analyses are insufficiently described in the protocols of randomised controlled trials submitted to research ethics committees, and investigators rarely specify the anticipated direction of subgroup effects. More than one third of statements in publications of randomised controlled trials about subgroup prespecification had no documentation in the corresponding protocols. Definitive judgments regarding credibility of claimed subgroup effects are not possible without access to protocols and analysis plans of randomised controlled trials.

Molecular Analyses Define Vα7.2-Jα33+ MAIT Cell Depletion in HIV Infection: A Case-Control Study

Mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cells are an abundant antibacterial innate-like lymphocyte population. There are conflicting reports as to their fate in HIV infection. The objective of this study was to determine whether MAIT cells are truly depleted in HIV infection.In this case-control study of HIV-positive patients and healthy controls, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to assess the abundance of messenger RNA (mRNA) and genomic DNA (gDNA) encoding the canonical MAIT cell T cell receptor (Vα7.2-Jα33). Comparison was made with flow cytometry.Significant depletion of both Vα7.2-Jα33 mRNA and gDNA was seen in HIV infection. Depletion of Vα7.2+CD161++ T cells was confirmed by flow cytometry. In HIV infection, the abundance of Vα7.2-Jα33 mRNA correlated most strongly with the frequency of Vα7.2+CD161++ cells. No increase was observed in the frequency of Vα7.2+CD161- cells among CD3+CD4- lymphocytes.MAIT cells are depleted from blood in HIV infection as confirmed by independent assays. Significant accumulation of a CD161- MAIT cell population is unlikely. Molecular approaches represent a suitable alternative to flow cytometry-based assays for tracking of MAIT cells in HIV and other settings.

Accuracy of social perception: An integration and review of meta-analyses

This review examines the overall accuracy of social perception across several research topics and identifies factors that inf luence the accuracy of social perception. Findings from 14 meta-analyses examining topics such as social/personality judgments, health judgments, legal judgments, and academic/vocational judg-ments were obtained. Social perception accuracy was generally moderate, yielding an average effect size (r) of .32. However, individual meta-analytic effects varied widely, with some topics yielding small effects (e.g., lie detection, eyewitness identification) and other topics yielding large effects (e.g., educational judgments, health judgments). Several moderators of social perception accuracy were identified, includ-ing the nature of the information source, familiarity of the target, type of personality trait, and severity of the outcome being judged. These findings provide a comprehensive summary and novel integration of disparate findings on the accuracy of social perception. Concluding remarks highlight avenues for future research and call for cross-disciplinary collaborations that would enhance our understanding of social perception.

Genome-Wide Analyses Suggest Mechanisms Involving Early B-Cell Development in Canine IgA Deficiency.

Immunoglobulin A deficiency (IgAD) is the most common primary immune deficiency disorder in both humans and dogs, characterized by recurrent mucosal tract infections and a predisposition for allergic and other immune mediated diseases. In several dog breeds, low IgA levels have been observed at a high frequency and with a clinical resemblance to human IgAD. In this study, we used genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify genomic regions associated with low IgA levels in dogs as a comparative model for human IgAD. We used a novel percentile groups-approach to establish breed-specific cut-offs and to perform analyses in a close to continuous manner. GWAS performed in four breeds prone to low IgA levels (German shepherd, Golden retriever, Labrador retriever and Shar-Pei) identified 35 genomic loci suggestively associated (p <0.0005) to IgA levels. In German shepherd, three genomic regions (candidate genes include KIRREL3 and SERPINA9) were genome-wide significantly associated (p <0.0002) with IgA levels. A ~20kb long haplotype on CFA28, significantly associated (p = 0.0005) to IgA levels in Shar-Pei, was positioned within the first intron of the gene SLIT1. Both KIRREL3 and SLIT1 are highly expressed in the central nervous system and in bone marrow and are potentially important during B-cell development. SERPINA9 expression is restricted to B-cells and peaks at the time-point when B-cells proliferate into antibody-producing plasma cells. The suggestively associated regions were enriched for genes in Gene Ontology gene sets involving inflammation and early immune cell development.

Late-Holocene climate variability and ecosystem responses in Alaska inferred from high-resolution multiproxy sediment analyses at Grizzly Lake

The late-Holocene shift from Picea glauca (white spruce) to Picea mariana (black spruce) forests marked the establishment of modern boreal forests in Alaska. To understand the patterns and drivers of this vegetational change and the associated late-Holocene environmental dynamics, we analyzed radiocarbon-dated sediments from Grizzly Lake for chironomids, diatoms, pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, element composition, particle size, and magnetic properties for the period 4100–1800 cal BP. Chironomid assemblages reveal two episodes of decreased July temperature, at ca. 3300–3150 (ca −1 °C) and 2900–2550 cal BP (ca −2 °C). These episodes coincided with climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric reorganization, and low solar activity. Diatom-inferred lake levels dropped by ca. 5 m at 3200 cal BP, suggesting dry conditions during the period 3200–1800 cal BP. P. glauca declined and P. mariana expanded at ca. 3200 cal BP; this vegetational change was linked to diatom-inferred low lake levels and thus decreased moisture availability. Forest cover declined at 3300–3100, 2800–2500 and 2300–2100 cal BP and soil erosion as inferred from increased values of Al, K, Si, Ti, and Ca intensified, when solar irradiance was low. Plant taxa adapted to disturbance and cold climate (e.g. Alnus viridis, shrub Betula, Epilobium) expanded during these periods of reduced forest cover. This open vegetation type was associated with high fire activity that peaked at 2800 cal BP, when climatic conditions were particularly cold and dry. Forest recovery lagged behind subsequent climate warming (≤+3 °C) by ca. 75–225 years. Our multiproxy data set suggests that P. glauca was dominant under warm-moist climatic conditions, whereas P. mariana prevailed under cold-dry and warm-dry conditions. This pattern implies that climatic warming, as anticipated for this century, may promote P. glauca expansions, if moisture availability will be sufficiently high, while P. mariana may expand under dry conditions, possibly exacerbating climate impacts on the fire regime.

Analyses stratégiques autour d'enjeux régionaux dans la Grappe des Lacs d'Itasy: SDA-Ausbildung in Madagaskar

Presentation for CDE's Forum E & U on the adaptation of the SDA approach for strategic analyisis of regional development and environment issues in Madagascar