178 resultados para PROSPECTIVE COHORT
Resumo:
RATIONALE Not all patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) have a high risk of an adverse short-term outcome. OBJECTIVES This prospective cohort study aimed to develop a multimarker prognostic model that accurately classifies normotensive patients with PE into low and high categories of risk of adverse medical outcomes. METHODS The study enrolled 848 outpatients from the PROTECT (PROgnosTic valuE of Computed Tomography) study (derivation cohort) and 529 patients from the Prognostic Factors for Pulmonary Embolism (PREP) study (validation cohort). Investigators assessed study participants for a 30-day complicated course, defined as death from any cause, hemodynamic collapse, and/or adjudicated recurrent PE. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A complicated course occurred in 63 (7.4%) of the 848 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE in the derivation cohort and in 24 patients (4.5%) in the validation cohort. The final model included the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, cardiac troponin I, brain natriuretic peptide, and lower limb ultrasound testing. The model performed similarly in the derivation (c-index of 0.75) and validation (c-index of 0.85) cohorts. The combination of the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and brain natriuretic peptide testing showed a negative predictive value for a complicated course of 99.1 and 100% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The combination of all modalities had a positive predictive value for the prediction of a complicated course of 25.8% in the derivation cohort and 21.2% in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS For normotensive patients who have acute PE, we derived and validated a multimarker model that predicts all-cause mortality, hemodynamic collapse, and/or recurrent PE within the following 30 days.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to investigate the survival effects of inferior vena cava filters in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) who had a significant bleeding risk. BACKGROUND The effectiveness of inferior vena cava filter use among patients with acute symptomatic VTE and known significant bleeding risk remains unclear. METHODS In this prospective cohort study of patients with acute VTE identified from the RIETE (Computerized Registry of Patients With Venous Thromboembolism), we assessed the association between inferior vena cava filter insertion for known significant bleeding risk and the outcomes of all-cause mortality, pulmonary embolism (PE)-related mortality, and VTE rates through 30 days after the initiation of VTE treatment. Propensity score matching was used to adjust for the likelihood of receiving a filter. RESULTS Of the 40,142 eligible patients who had acute symptomatic VTE, 371 underwent filter placement because of known significant bleeding risk. A total of 344 patients treated with a filter were matched with 344 patients treated without a filter. Propensity score-matched pairs showed a nonsignificant trend toward lower risk of all-cause death for filter insertion compared with no insertion (6.6% vs. 10.2%; p = 0.12). The risk-adjusted PE-related mortality rate was lower for filter insertion than no insertion (1.7% vs. 4.9%; p = 0.03). Risk-adjusted recurrent VTE rates were higher for filter insertion than for no insertion (6.1% vs. 0.6%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS In patients presenting with VTE and with a significant bleeding risk, inferior vena cava filter insertion compared with anticoagulant therapy was associated with a lower risk of PE-related death and a higher risk of recurrent VTE. However, study design limitations do not imply a causal relationship between filter insertion and outcome.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most common disease among men worldwide. It is important to know survival outcomes and prognostic factors for this disease. Recruitment for the largest therapeutic randomised controlled trial in PCa-the Systemic Therapy in Advancing or Metastatic Prostate Cancer: Evaluation of Drug Efficacy: A Multi-Stage Multi-Arm Randomised Controlled Trial (STAMPEDE)-includes men with newly diagnosed metastatic PCa who are commencing long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT); the control arm provides valuable data for a prospective cohort. OBJECTIVE Describe survival outcomes, along with current treatment standards and factors associated with prognosis, to inform future trial design in this patient group. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS STAMPEDE trial control arm comprising men newly diagnosed with M1 disease who were recruited between October 2005 and January 2014. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Overall survival (OS) and failure-free survival (FFS) were reported by primary disease characteristics using Kaplan-Meier methods. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived from multivariate Cox models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS A cohort of 917 men with newly diagnosed M1 disease was recruited to the control arm in the specified interval. Median follow-up was 20 mo. Median age at randomisation was 66 yr (interquartile range [IQR]: 61-71), and median prostate-specific antigen level was 112 ng/ml (IQR: 34-373). Most men (n=574; 62%) had bone-only metastases, whereas 237 (26%) had both bone and soft tissue metastases; soft tissue metastasis was found mainly in distant lymph nodes. There were 238 deaths, 202 (85%) from PCa. Median FFS was 11 mo; 2-yr FFS was 29% (95% CI, 25-33). Median OS was 42 mo; 2-yr OS was 72% (95% CI, 68-76). Survival time was influenced by performance status, age, Gleason score, and metastases distribution. Median survival after FFS event was 22 mo. Trial eligibility criteria meant men were younger and fitter than general PCa population. CONCLUSIONS Survival remains disappointing in men presenting with M1 disease who are started on only long-term ADT, despite active treatments being available at first failure of ADT. Importantly, men with M1 disease now spend the majority of their remaining life in a state of castration-resistant relapse. PATIENT SUMMARY Results from this control arm cohort found survival is relatively short and highly influenced by patient age, fitness, and where prostate cancer has spread in the body.
Resumo:
We assessed the feasibility and the procedural and long-term safety of intracoronary (i.c) imaging for documentary purposes with optical coherence tomography (OCT) and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) in patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary PCI in the setting of IBIS-4 study. IBIS4 (NCT00962416) is a prospective cohort study conducted at five European centers including 103 STEMI patients who underwent serial three-vessel coronary imaging during primary PCI and at 13 months. The feasibility parameter was successful imaging, defined as the number of pullbacks suitable for analysis. Safety parameters included the frequency of peri-procedural complications, and major adverse cardiac events (MACE), a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI) and any clinically-indicated revascularization at 2 years. Clinical outcomes were compared with the results from a cohort of 485 STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI without additional imaging. Imaging of the infarct-related artery at baseline (and follow-up) was successful in 92.2 % (96.6 %) of patients using OCT and in 93.2 % (95.5 %) using IVUS. Imaging of the non-infarct-related vessels was successful in 88.7 % (95.6 %) using OCT and in 90.5 % (93.3 %) using IVUS. Periprocedural complications occurred <2.0 % of OCT and none during IVUS. There were no differences throughout 2 years between the imaging and control group in terms of MACE (16.7 vs. 13.3 %, adjusted HR1.40, 95 % CI 0.77-2.52, p = 0.27). Multi-modality three-vessel i.c. imaging in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI is consistent a high degree of success and can be performed safely without impact on cardiovascular events at long-term follow-up.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.
Resumo:
Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been associated with coronary heart disease, but the risk of stroke is unclear. Our aim is to combine the evidence on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke in prospective cohort studies. We searched Medline (OvidSP), Embase, Web-of-Science, Pubmed Publisher, Cochrane and Google Scholar from inception to November 2013 using a cohort filter, but without language restriction or other limitations. Reference lists of articles were searched. Two independent reviewers screened articles according to pre-specified criteria and selected prospective cohort studies with baseline thyroid function measurements and assessment of stroke outcomes. Data were derived using a standardized data extraction form. Quality was assessed according to previously defined quality indicators by two independent reviewers. We pooled the outcomes using a random-effects model. Of 2,274 articles screened, six cohort studies, including 11,309 participants with 665 stroke events, met the criteria. Four of six studies provided information on subclinical hyperthyroidism including a total of 6,029 participants and five on subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 10,118). The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 1.08 (95 % CI 0.87-1.34) for subclinical hypothyroidism (I (2) of 0 %) and 1.17 (95 % CI 0.54-2.56) for subclinical hyperthyroidism (I (2) of 67 %) compared to euthyroidism. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. Our systematic review provides no evidence supporting an increased risk for stroke associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. However, the available literature is insufficient and larger datasets are needed to perform extended analyses. Also, there were insufficient events to exclude clinically significant risk from subclinical hyperthyroidism, and more data are required for subgroup analyses.
Resumo:
We investigated the clinical relevance of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase gene (DPYD) variants to predict severe early-onset fluoropyrimidine (FP) toxicity, in particular of a recently discovered haplotype hapB3 and a linked deep intronic splice site mutation c.1129-5923C>G. Selected regions of DPYD were sequenced in prospectively collected germline DNA of 500 patients receiving FP-based chemotherapy. Associations of DPYD variants and haplotypes with hematologic, gastrointestinal, infectious, and dermatologic toxicity in therapy cycles 1-2 and resulting FP-dose interventions (dose reduction, therapy delay or cessation) were analyzed accounting for clinical and demographic covariates. Fifteen additional cases with toxicity-related therapy delay or cessation were retrospectively examined for risk variants. The association of c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3 (4.6% carrier frequency) with severe toxicity was replicated in an independent prospective cohort. Overall, c.1129-5923G/hapB3 carriers showed a relative risk of 3.74 (RR, 95% CI = 2.30-6.09, p = 2 × 10(-5)) for severe toxicity (grades 3-5). Of 31 risk variant carriers (c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3, c.1679T>G, c.1905+1G>A or c.2846A>T), 11 (all with c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3) experienced severe toxicity (15% of 72 cases, RR = 2.73, 95% CI = 1.61-4.63, p = 5 × 10(-6)), and 16 carriers (55%) required FP-dose interventions. Seven of the 15 (47%) retrospective cases carried a risk variant. The c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3 variant is a major contributor to severe early-onset FP toxicity in Caucasian patients. This variant may substantially improve the identification of patients at risk of FP toxicity compared to established DPYD risk variants (c.1905+1G>A, c.1679T>G and c.2846A>T). Pre-therapeutic DPYD testing may prevent 20-30% of life-threatening or lethal episodes of FP toxicity in Caucasian patients.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain (LBP) is crucial. OBJECTIVE Aim of this study was to identify in patients with a new episode of LBP the time point at which those at risk of developing persistent LBP can be best identified.METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 315 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a first episode of acute LBP. Primary outcome measure was functional limitation. Patients were assessed at baseline, three, six, twelve weeks and six months looking at factors of maladaptive cognition as potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for all time points. RESULTS The best time point to predict the development of persistent LBP at six months was the twelve-week follow-up (sensitivity 78%; overall predictive value 90%). Cognitions assessed at first visit to a health practitioner were not predictive. CONCLUSIONS Maladaptive cognitions at twelve weeks appear to be suitable predictors for a transition from acute to persistent LBP. Already three weeks after patients present to a health practitioner with acute LBP cognitions might influence the development of persistent LBP. Therefore, cognitive-behavioral interventions should be considered as early adjuvant LBP treatment in patients at risk of developing persistent LBP.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To assess safety up to 1 year of follow-up associated with prasugrel and clopidogrel use in a prospective cohort of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). METHODS Between 2009 and 2012, 2286 patients invasively managed for ACS were enrolled in the multicentre Swiss ACS Bleeding Cohort, among whom 2148 patients received either prasugrel or clopidogrel according to current guidelines. Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) preferentially received prasugrel, while those with non-STEMI, a history of stroke or transient ischaemic attack, age ≥75 years, or weight <60 kg received clopidogrel or reduced dose of prasugrel to comply with the prasugrel label. RESULTS After adjustment using propensity scores, the primary end point of clinically relevant bleeding events (defined as the composite of Bleeding Academic Research Consortium, BARC, type 3, 4 or 5 bleeding) at 1 year, occurred at a similar rate in both patient groups (prasugrel/clopidogrel: 3.8%/5.5%). Stratified analyses in subgroups including patients with STEMI yielded a similar safety profile. After adjusting for baseline variables, no relevant differences in major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events were observed at 1 year (prasugrel/clopidogrel: cardiac death 2.6%/4.2%, myocardial infarction 2.7%/3.8%, revascularisation 5.9%/6.7%, stroke 1.0%/1.6%). Of note, this study was not designed to compare efficacy between prasugrel and clopidogrel. CONCLUSIONS In this large prospective ACS cohort, patients treated with prasugrel according to current guidelines (ie, in patients without cerebrovascular disease, old age or underweight) had a similar safety profile compared with patients treated with clopidogrel. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER SPUM-ACS: NCT01000701; COMFORTABLE AMI: NCT00962416.
Resumo:
PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.
Resumo:
PRINCIPLES Prediction of arrhythmic events (AEs) has gained importance with the availability of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), but is still imprecise. This study evaluated the innovative Wedensky modulation index (WMI) as predictor of AEs. METHODS In this prospective cohort, 179 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) referred for AE risk assessment underwent baseline evaluation including measurement of R-/T-wave WMI (WMI(RT)) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Two endpoints were assessed 3 years after the baseline evaluation: sudden cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP1) and any cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP2). Associations between baseline predictors (WMI(RT) and LVEF) and endpoints were evaluated in regression models. RESULTS Only three patients were lost to follow-up. EP1 and EP2 occurred in 24 and 27 patients, respectively. WMI(RT) (odds ratio [OR] per 1 point increase for EP1 20.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-221.4, p = 0.014, and for EP2 73.3, 95% CI 6.6-817.7, p <0.001) and LVEF (OR per 1% increase for EP1 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.013, and for EP2 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, p = 0.002) were significantly associated with both endpoints. In bivariable regression controlled for LVEF, WMI(RT) was independently associated with EP1 (p = 0.047) and EP2 (p = 0.007). The combination of WMI(RT) ≥0.60 and LVEF ≤30% resulted in a positive predictive value of 36% for EP1 and 50% for EP2. CONCLUSIONS WMI(RT) is a significant predictor of AEs independent of LVEF and has potential to improve AE risk prediction in CAD patients. However, WMI(RT) should be evaluated in larger and independent samples before recommendations for clinical routine can be made.
Resumo:
Mycoplasma bovis causes mastitis in dairy cows and is associated with pneumonia and polyarthritis in cattle. The present investigation included a retrospective case–control study to identify potential herd-level risk factors for M. bovis associated disease, and a prospective cohort study to evaluate the course of clinical disease in M. bovis infected dairy cattle herds in Switzerland. Eighteen herds with confirmed M. bovis cases were visited twice within an average interval of 75 d. One control herd with no history of clinical mycoplasmosis, matched for herd size, was randomly selected within a 10 km range for each case herd. Animal health data, production data, information on milking and feeding-management, housing and presence of potential stress- factors were collected. Composite quarter milk samples were aseptically collected from all lactating cows and 5% of all animals within each herd were sampled by nasal swabs. Organ samples of culled diseased cows were collected when logistically possible. All samples were analyzed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). In case herds, incidence risk of pneumonia, arthritis and clinical mastitis prior to the first visit and incidence rates of clinical mastitis and clinical pneumonia between the two visits was estimated. Logistic regression was used to identify potential herd-level risk factors for M. bovis infection. In case herds, incidence risk of M. bovis mastitis prior to the first visit ranged from 2 to 15%, whereas 2 to 35% of the cows suffered from clinical pneumonia within the 12 months prior to the first herd visit. The incidence rates of mycoplasmal mastitis and clinical pneumonia between the two herd visits were low in case herds (0–0.1 per animal year at risk and 0.1-0.6 per animal year at risk, respectively). In the retrospective-case-control study high mean milk production, appropriate stimulation until milk-let-down, fore-stripping, animal movements (cattle shows and trade), presence of stress-factors, and use of a specific brand of milking equipment, were identified as potential herd-level risk factors. The prospective cohort study revealed a decreased incidence of clinical disease within three months and prolonged colonization of the nasal cavity by M. bovis in young stock.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To compare long-term outcome of children and young adults with arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) from 2 large registries. METHODS Prospective cohort study comparing functional and psychosocial long-term outcome (≥2 years after AIS) in patients who had AIS during childhood (1 month-16 years) or young adulthood (16.1-45 years) between January 2000 and December 2008, who consented to follow-up. Data of children were collected prospectively in the Swiss Neuropediatric Stroke Registry, young adults in the Bernese stroke database. RESULTS Follow-up information was available in 95/116 children and 154/187 young adults. Median follow-up of survivors was 6.9 years (interquartile range 4.7-9.4) and did not differ between the groups (p = 0.122). Long-term functional outcome was similar (p = 0.896): 53 (56%) children and 84 (55%) young adults had a favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0-1). Mortality in children was 14% (13/95) and in young adults 7% (11/154) (p = 0.121) and recurrence rate did not differ (p = 0.759). Overall psychosocial impairment and quality of life did not differ, except for more behavioral problems among children (13% vs 5%, p = 0.040) and more frequent reports of an impact of AIS on everyday life among adults (27% vs 64%, p < 0.001). In a multivariate regression analysis, low Pediatric NIH Stroke Scale/NIH Stroke Scale score was the most important predictor of favorable outcome (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION There were no major differences in long-term outcome after AIS in children and young adults for mortality, disability, quality of life, psychological, or social variables.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVES Previous studies concluded that haemorrhage is one of the most accurate prognostic factors of mortality in leptospirosis. Therefore, endothelial cell activation was investigated in relation to disease severity in severe leptospirosis. METHODS Prospective cohort study of severe leptospirosis patients. Plasma levels of sE-selectin and Von Willebrand factor (VWF) were determined. Consequently, an in vitro endothelial cell model was used to assess endothelial activation after exposure to virulent Leptospira. Finally, immune activation, as a potential contributing factor to endothelial cell activation, was determined by soluble IL2-receptor (sIL-2r) and soluble Fas-ligand (sFasL) levels. RESULTS Plasma levels of sE-selectin and VWF strongly increased in patients compared to healthy controls. Furthermore, sE-selectin was significantly elevated (203 ng/ml vs. 157 ng/ml, p < 0.05) in survivors compared to non-survivors. Endothelial cells exposed to virulent Leptospira showed increased VWF expression. E-selectin and ICAM-1 expression did not change. Immunohistochemistry revealed the presence of intracellular Leptospira and qPCR suggested replication. In vivo analysis showed that increased levels of sFasL and sIL-2r were both strongly associated with mortality. Furthermore sIL-2r levels were increased in patients that developed bleeding and significantly correlated to duration of hospital stay. DISCUSSION Markers of endothelial activation and immune activation were associated with disease severity in leptospirosis patients.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Chronic haemodialysis patients are a high-risk population for meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization, which is a precursor of infection. AIM To summarize the effect of nasal (± whole-body wash) MRSA decolonization in haemodialysis patients by means of a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS We identified eligible studies using Medline, Embase, the Cochrane database, clinicaltrials.org, and conference abstracts investigating the success of MRSA decolonization in haemodialysis patients. For the statistical analysis, we used Stata 13 to express study-specific proportions with 95% confidence intervals. A likelihood ratio test was used to assess inter-study heterogeneity. FINDINGS Six published prospective cohort studies and one study described in a conference abstract met our inclusion criteria. From 1150 haemodialysis patients enrolled in these studies, MRSA was isolated from nasal swabs of 147 (12.8%) patients. Six of the trials used mupirocin nasal ointment and combined it with chlorhexidine body washes for decolonization. The most widely used protocol was a five-day course of mupirocin nasal ointment application three times a day, and chlorhexidine body wash once daily. The pooled success rate of decolonization was 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.95). A likelihood ratio test of the fixed versus the random-effects model showed significant inter-study heterogeneity (P = 0.047). Four of seven studies determined subsequent MRSA infections in 94 carriers overall, two (2%) of which experienced infection. CONCLUSION The use of mupirocin together with whole-body decolonization is highly effective in eradicating MRSA carriage in haemodialysis patients. The current literature, however, is characterized by a lack of comparative effectiveness studies for this intervention.