Snow variability in the Swiss Alps 1864-2009

We present a climate analysis of nine unique Swiss Alpine new snow series that have been newly digitized. The stations cover different altitudes (450–1860 m asl) and all time series cover more than 100 years (one from 1864 to 2009). In addition, data from 71 stations for the last 50–80 years for new snow and snow depth are analysed to get a more complete picture of the Swiss Alpine snow variability. Important snow climate indicators such as new snow sums (NSS), maximum new snow (MAXNS) and days with snowfall (DWSF) are calculated and variability and trends analysed. Series of days with snow pack (DWSP) ≥ 1 cm are reconstructed with useful quality for six stations using the daily new snow, local temperature and precipitation data. Our results reveal large decadal variability with phases of low and high values for NSS, DWSF and DWSP. For most stations NSS, DWSF and DWSP show the lowest values recorded and unprecedented negative trends in the late 1980s and 1990s. For MAXNS, however, no clear trends and smaller decadal variability are found but very large MAXNS values (>60 cm) are missing since the year 2000. The fraction of NSS and DWSP in different seasons (autumn, winter and spring) has changed only slightly over the ∼150 year record. Some decreases most likely attributable to temperature changes in the last 50 years are found for spring, especially for NSS at low stations. Both the NSS and DWSP snow indicators show a trend reversal in most recent years (since 2000), especially at low and medium altitudes. This is consistent with the recent ‘plateauing’ (i.e. slight relative decrease) of mean winter temperature in Switzerland and illustrates how important decadal variability is in understanding the trends in key snow indicators.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A Christian Identity for the Liberal State?

It seems to be impossible for the liberal state to embrace a Christian identity, because ‘liberalism’ is exactly a device for separating state and religion. Discussing the implications of a recent decision of the European Court of Human Rights, Lautsi v. Italy (2011), I argue that this is not necessarily so. If paired with a liberal commitment to pluralism, a Christian identity might even be more inclusive of minority religions than a narrowly ‘liberal’ state identity, which has been the dominant response in Western Europe to the challenge of immigrant diversity, especially that of Muslim origins.

Diagnostic performance of high-sensitive troponin T in patients with renal insufficiency

In the present study, we wanted to (1) evaluate whether high-sensitive troponin T levels correlate with the grade of renal insufficiency and (2) test the accuracy of high-sensitive troponin T determination in patients with renal insufficiency for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In this cross-sectional analysis, all patients who received serial measurements of high-sensitive troponin T from August 1, 2010, to October 31, 2012, at the Department of Emergency Medicine were included. We analyzed data on baseline characteristics, reason for referral, medication, cardiovascular risk factors, and outcome in terms of presence of AMI along with laboratory data (high-sensitive troponin T, creatinine). A total of 1,514 patients (67% male, aged 65 ± 16 years) were included, of which 382 patients (25%) had moderate to severe renal insufficiency and significantly higher levels of high-sensitive troponin T on admission (0.028 vs 0.009, p <0.0001). In patients without AMI, high-sensitive troponin T correlated inversely with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (R = -0.12, p <0.0001). Overall, sensitivity of an elevated high-sensitive troponin for diagnosis of AMI was 0.64 (0.56 to 0.71) and the specificity was 0.48 (0.45 to 0.51). The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic for all patients was 0.613 (standard error [SE] 0.023), whereas it was 0.741 (SE 0.029) for patients with a Modification of Diet in Renal Disease estimated glomerular filtration rate >60 ml/min presenting with acute chest pain or dyspnea and 0.535 (SE 0.056) for patients with moderate to severe renal insufficiency presenting with acute chest pain or dyspnea. In conclusion, the diagnostic accuracy for presence of AMI of a baseline measurement of high-sensitive troponin in patients with renal insufficiency was poor and resembles tossing a coin.