Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

As long as global CO₂ emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

Early versus delayed application of Thomas splints in patients with isolated femur shaft fractures: The benefits quantified

AIMS To investigate and quantify the clinical benefits of early versus delayed application of Thomas splints in patients with isolated femur shaft fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS Level IV retrospective clinical and radiological analysis of patients presenting from January to December 2012 at a Level 1 Trauma Unit. All skeletally mature patients with isolated femur shaft fractures independently of their mechanism of injury were included. Exclusion criteria were: ipsilateral fracture of the lower limb, neck and supracondylar femur fractures, periprosthetic and incomplete fractures. Their clinical records were analysed for blood transfusion requirements, pulmonary complications, surgery time, duration of hospital stay and analgesic requirements. RESULTS A total of 106 patients met our inclusion criteria. There were 74 males and 32 females. Fifty seven (54%) patients were in the 'early splinted' group and 49 patients (46%) were in the 'delayed splinted' group (P>0.05). The need for blood transfusion was significantly reduced in the 'early splinted' group (P=0.04). There was a significantly higher rate of pulmonary complications in the 'delayed splinted' group (P=0.008). All other parameters were similar between the two groups. CONCLUSION The early application of Thomas splints for isolated femur fractures in non-polytraumatised patients has a clinically and statistically significant benefit of reducing the need for blood transfusions and the incidence of pulmonary complications.

Developing a point-of-care electronic medical record system for TB/HIV co-infected patients: experiences from Lighthouse Trust, Lilongwe, Malawi.

BACKGROUND Implementation of user-friendly, real-time, electronic medical records for patient management may lead to improved adherence to clinical guidelines and improved quality of patient care. We detail the systematic, iterative process that implementation partners, Lighthouse clinic and Baobab Health Trust, employed to develop and implement a point-of-care electronic medical records system in an integrated, public clinic in Malawi that serves HIV-infected and tuberculosis (TB) patients. METHODS Baobab Health Trust, the system developers, conducted a series of technical and clinical meetings with Lighthouse and Ministry of Health to determine specifications. Multiple pre-testing sessions assessed patient flow, question clarity, information sequencing, and verified compliance to national guidelines. Final components of the TB/HIV electronic medical records system include: patient demographics; anthropometric measurements; laboratory samples and results; HIV testing; WHO clinical staging; TB diagnosis; family planning; clinical review; and drug dispensing. RESULTS Our experience suggests that an electronic medical records system can improve patient management, enhance integration of TB/HIV services, and improve provider decision-making. However, despite sufficient funding and motivation, several challenges delayed system launch including: expansion of system components to include of HIV testing and counseling services; changes in the national antiretroviral treatment guidelines that required system revision; and low confidence to use the system among new healthcare workers. To ensure a more robust and agile system that met all stakeholder and user needs, our electronic medical records launch was delayed more than a year. Open communication with stakeholders, careful consideration of ongoing provider input, and a well-functioning, backup, paper-based TB registry helped ensure successful implementation and sustainability of the system. Additional, on-site, technical support provided reassurance and swift problem-solving during the extended launch period. CONCLUSION Even when system users are closely involved in the design and development of an electronic medical record system, it is critical to allow sufficient time for software development, solicitation of detailed feedback from both users and stakeholders, and iterative system revisions to successfully transition from paper to point-of-care electronic medical records. For those in low-resource settings, electronic medical records for integrated care is a possible and positive innovation.