CD4+ T cell count recovery in HIV type 1-infected patients is independent of class of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: In recent years, treatment options for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have changed from nonboosted protease inhibitors (PIs) to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and boosted PI-based antiretroviral drug regimens, but the impact on immunological recovery remains uncertain. METHODS: During January 1996 through December 2004 [corrected] all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort were included if they received the first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and had known baseline CD4(+) T cell counts and HIV-1 RNA values (n = 3293). For follow-up, we used the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database update of May 2007 [corrected] The mean (+/-SD) duration of follow-up was 26.8 +/- 20.5 months. The follow-up time was limited to the duration of the first cART. CD4(+) T cell recovery was analyzed in 3 different treatment groups: nonboosted PI, NNRTI, or boosted PI. The end point was the absolute increase of CD4(+) T cell count in the 3 treatment groups after the initiation of cART. RESULTS: Two thousand five hundred ninety individuals (78.7%) initiated a nonboosted-PI regimen, 452 (13.7%) initiated an NNRTI regimen, and 251 (7.6%) initiated a boosted-PI regimen. Absolute CD4(+) T cell count increases at 48 months were as follows: in the nonboosted-PI group, from 210 to 520 cells/muL; in the NNRTI group, from 220 to 475 cells/muL; and in the boosted-PI group, from 168 to 511 cells/muL. In a multivariate analysis, the treatment group did not affect the response of CD4(+) T cells; however, increased age, pretreatment with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, serological tests positive for hepatitis C virus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stage C infection, lower baseline CD4(+) T cell count, and lower baseline HIV-1 RNA level were risk factors for smaller increases in CD4(+) T cell count. CONCLUSION: CD4(+) T cell recovery was similar in patients receiving nonboosted PI-, NNRTI-, and boosted PI-based cART.

The HCP5 single-nucleotide polymorphism: a simple screening tool for prediction of hypersensitivity reaction to abacavir

The HLA-B 5701 allele is predictive of hypersensitivity reaction to abacavir, a response herein termed "ABC-HSR." This study of 1,103 individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus assessed the usefulness of genotyping a HCP5 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs2395029, in relation to ABC-HSR. In populations with European ancestry, rs2395029 is in linkage disequilibrium with HLA-B 5701. The HCP5 SNP was present in all 98 HLA-B 5701-positive individuals and was absent in 999 of 1005 HLA-B 5701-negative individuals. rs2395029 was overrepresented in 25 individuals with clinically likely ABC-HSR, compared with its frequency in 175 ABC-tolerant individuals (80% vs. 2%, respectively; P < .0001). Therefore, HCP5 genotyping could serve as a simple screening tool for ABC-HSR, particularly in settings where sequence-based HLA typing is not available.

Factors associated with the emergence of K65R in patients with HIV-1 infection treated with combination antiretroviral therapy containing tenofovir

BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 reverse-transcriptase mutation K65R is a single-point mutation that has become more frequent after increased use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). We aimed to identify predictors for the emergence of K65R, using clinical data and genotypic resistance tests from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: A total of 222 patients with genotypic resistance tests performed while receiving treatment with TDF-containing regimens were stratified by detectability of K65R (K65R group, 42 patients; undetected K65R group, 180 patients). Patient characteristics at start of that treatment were analyzed. RESULTS: In an adjusted logistic regression, TDF treatment with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors and/or didanosine was associated with the emergence of K65R, whereas the presence of any of the thymidine analogue mutations D67N, K70R, T215F, or K219E/Q was protective. The previously undescribed mutational pattern K65R/G190S/Y181C was observed in 6 of 21 patients treated with efavirenz and TDF. Salvage therapy after TDF treatment was started for 36 patients with K65R and for 118 patients from the wild-type group. Proportions of patients attaining human immunodeficiency virus type 1 loads <50 copies/mL after 24 weeks of continuous treatment were similar for the K65R group (44.1%; 95% confidence interval, 27.2%-62.1%) and the wild-type group (51.9%; 95% confidence interval, 42.0%-61.6%). CONCLUSIONS: In settings where thymidine analogue mutations are less likely to be present, such as at start of first-line therapy or after extended treatment interruptions, combinations of TDF with other K65R-inducing components or with efavirenz or nevirapine may carry an enhanced risk of the emergence of K65R. The finding of a distinct mutational pattern selected by treatment with TDF and efavirenz suggests a potential fitness interaction between K65R and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-induced mutations.

Prognosis of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: We examined survival and prognostic factors of patients who developed HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN AND SETTING: Multicohort collaboration of 33 European cohorts. METHODS: We included all cART-naive patients enrolled in cohorts participating in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) who were aged 16 years or older, started cART at some point after 1 January 1998 and developed NHL after 1 January 1998. Patients had to have a CD4 cell count after 1 January 1998 and one at diagnosis of the NHL. Survival and prognostic factors were estimated using Weibull models, with random effects accounting for heterogeneity between cohorts. RESULTS: Of 67 659 patients who were followed up during 304 940 person-years, 1176 patients were diagnosed with NHL. Eight hundred and forty-seven patients (72%) from 22 cohorts met inclusion criteria. Survival at 1 year was 66% [95% confidence interval (CI) 63-70%] for systemic NHL (n = 763) and 54% (95% CI: 43-65%) for primary brain lymphoma (n = 84). Risk factors for death included low nadir CD4 cell counts and a history of injection drug use. Patients developing NHL on cART had an increased risk of death compared with patients who were cART naive at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: In the era of cART two-thirds of patients diagnosed with HIV-related systemic NHL survive for longer than 1 year after diagnosis. Survival is poorer in patients diagnosed with primary brain lymphoma. More advanced immunodeficiency is the dominant prognostic factor for mortality in patients with HIV-related NHL.

CD4(+) T cell count decreases by ethnicity among untreated patients with HIV infection in South Africa and Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the decrease in CD4(+) cell counts in untreated patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are important for patient care and public health. We analyzed CD4(+) cell count decreases in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We used mixed-effects models and joint models that allowed for the correlation between CD4(+) cell count decreases and survival and stratified analyses by the initial cell count (50-199, 200-349, 350-499, and 500-750 cells/microL). Results are presented as the mean decrease in CD4(+) cell count with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) during the first year after the initial CD4(+) cell count. RESULTS: A total of 784 South African (629 nonwhite) and 2030 Swiss (218 nonwhite) patients with HIV infection contributed 13,388 CD4(+) cell counts. Decreases in CD4(+) cell count were steeper in white patients, patients with higher initial CD4(+) cell counts, and older patients. Decreases ranged from a mean of 38 cells/microL (95% CI, 24-54 cells/microL) in nonwhite patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study 15-39 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 200-349 cells/microL to a mean of 210 cells/microL (95% CI, 143-268 cells/microL) in white patients in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort > or =40 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 500-750 cells/microL. CONCLUSIONS: Among both patients from Switzerland and patients from South Africa, CD4(+) cell count decreases were greater in white patients with HIV infection than they were in nonwhite patients with HIV infection.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal

BACKGROUND: The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). CONCLUSIONS: In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Frequency and significance of HIV infection among patients diagnosed with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura

BACKGROUND: Case series of patients with a diagnosis of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) have reported different frequencies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection; some series suggest that HIV infection may cause TTP. METHODS: We systematically reviewed all reports of HIV infection in case series of patients with TTP. We analyzed data from the Oklahoma TTP-HUS (hemolytic uremic syndrome) Registry, an inception cohort of 362 consecutive patients, for 1989-2007. RESULTS: Nineteen case series reported the occurrence of HIV infection at the time of diagnosis of TTP in 0%-83% of patients; individual patient data were rarely described. The Oklahoma TTP-HUS Registry determined the HIV status at the time of diagnosis of TTP in 351 (97%) of 362 patients. HIV infection was documented in 6 (1.84%; 95% CI, 0.68%-4.01%) of 326 adult patients (age, 26-51 years); follow-up data were complete for all 6 patients. The period prevalence of HIV infection among all adults in the Oklahoma TTP-HUS Registry region for 1989-2007 was 0.30%. One patient had typical features of TTP with 5 relapses. Five patients had single episodes; in 4, the clinical features that had initially suggested the diagnosis of TTP were subsequently attributed to malignant hypertension (in 3 patients) and disseminated Kaposi sarcoma (in 1 patient). CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection, similar to other inflammatory conditions, may trigger acute episodes of TTP in susceptible patients. More commonly, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-related disorders may mimic the clinical features of TTP. If the diagnosis of TTP is suggested in a patient with HIV infection, there should be careful evaluation for alternative diagnoses and cautious consideration of plasma exchange, the required treatment for TTP.

6th International Immunoglobulin Symposium: poster presentations

The posters presented at the 6th International Immunoglobulin Symposium covered a wide range of fields and included both basic science and clinical research. From the abstracts accepted for poster presentation, 12 abstracts were selected for oral presentations in three parallel sessions on immunodeficiencies, autoimmunity and basic research. The immunodeficiency presentations dealt with novel, rare class-switch recombination (CSR) deficiencies, attenuation of adverse events following IVIg treatment, association of immunoglobulin (Ig)G trough levels and protection against acute infection in patients with X-linked agammaglobulinaemia (XLA) and common variable immunodeficiency (CVID), and the reduction of class-switched memory B cells in patients with specific antibody deficiency (SAD). The impact of intravenous immunoglobulin on fetal alloimmune thrombocytopenia, pregnancy and postpartum-related relapses in multiple sclerosis and refractory myositis, as well as experiences with subcutaneous immunoglobulin in patients with multi-focal motor neuropathy, were the topics presented in the autoimmunity session. The interaction of dendritic cell (DC)-SIGN and alpha2,6-sialylated IgG Fc and its impact on human DCs, the enrichment of sialylated IgG in plasma-derived IgG, as wells as prion surveillance and monitoring of anti-measles titres in immunoglobulin products, were covered in the basic science session. In summary, the presentations illustrated the breadth of immunoglobulin therapy usage and highlighted the progress that is being made in diverse areas of basic and clinical research, extending our understanding of the mechanisms of immunoglobulin action and contributing to improved patient care.

Randomized, double-blind comparative trial of subunit and virosomal influenza vaccines for immunocompromised patients

BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no study to date has compared the effects of a subunit influenza vaccine with those of a virosomal influenza vaccine on immunocompromised patients. METHODS: A prospective, double-blind, randomized study was conducted to compare the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of subunit and virosomal influenza vaccines for adult patients who had an immunosuppressive disease or who were immunocompromised as a result of treatment. RESULTS: There were 304 patients enrolled in our study: 131 with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, 47 with a chronic rheumatologic disease, 74 who underwent a renal transplant, 47 who received long-term hemodialysis, and 5 who had some other nephrologic disease. There were 151 patients who received the subunit vaccine and 153 patients who received the virosomal vaccine. A slightly higher percentage of patients from the subunit vaccine group were protected against all 3 influenza vaccine strains after being vaccinated, compared with patients from the virosomal vaccine group (41% vs. 30% of patients; P = .03). Among HIV-infected patients, the level of HIV RNA, but not the CD4 cell count, was an independent predictor of vaccine response. Among renal transplant patients, treatment with mycophenolate significantly reduced the immune response to vaccination. The 2 vaccines were comparable with regard to the frequency and severity of local and systemic reactions within 7 days after vaccination. Disease-specific scores for the activity of rheumatologic diseases did not indicate flare-ups 4-6 weeks after vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: For immunosuppressed patients, the subunit vaccine was slightly more immunogenic than the virosomal vaccine. The 2 vaccines were comparable with regard to reactogenicity. Vaccine response decreased with increasing degree of immune suppression. Among HIV-infected patients, the viral load, rather than the CD4 cell count, predicted the protective immune response to the vaccine. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00783380 .

Fetal gene therapy: opportunities and risks

Advances in human prenatal medicine and molecular genetics have allowed the diagnosis of many genetic diseases early in gestation. In-utero transplantation of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) has been successfully used as a therapy in different animal models and recently also in human fetuses. Unfortunately, clinical success of this novel treatment is limited by the lack of donor cell engraftment in non-immunocompromised hosts and is thus restricted to diseases where the fetus is affected by severe immunodeficiency. Gene therapy using genetically modified autologous HSC circumvents allogeneic HLA barriers and constitutes one of the most promising new approaches to correct genetic deficits in the fetus. Recent developments of strategies to overcome failure of efficient transduction of quiescent hematopoietic cells include the use of new vector constructs and transduction protocols. These improvements open new perspectives for gene therapy in general and for prenatal gene transfer in particular. The fetus may be especially susceptible for successful gene therapy due to the immunologic naiveté of the immature hematopoietic system during gestation, precluding an immune reaction towards the transgene. Ethical issues, in particular those regarding treatment safety, must be taken into account before clinical trials with fetal gene therapy in human pregnancies can be initiated.

Low bone mineral density, renal dysfunction, and fracture risk in HIV infection: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Reduced bone mineral density (BMD) is common in adults infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The role of proximal renal tubular dysfunction (PRTD) and alterations in bone metabolism in HIV-related low BMD are incompletely understood. METHODS: We quantified BMD (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry), blood and urinary markers of bone metabolism and renal function, and risk factors for low BMD (hip or spine T score, -1 or less) in an ambulatory care setting. We determined factors associated with low BMD and calculated 10-year fracture risks using the World Health Organization FRAX equation. RESULTS: We studied 153 adults (98% men; median age, 48 years; median body mass index, 24.5; 67 [44%] were receiving tenofovir, 81 [53%] were receiving a boosted protease inhibitor [PI]). Sixty-five participants (42%) had low BMD, and 11 (7%) had PRTD. PI therapy was associated with low BMD in multivariable analysis (odds ratio, 2.69; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-6.63). Tenofovir use was associated with increased osteoblast and osteoclast activity (P< or = .002). The mean estimated 10-year risks were 1.2% for hip fracture and 5.4% for any major osteoporotic fracture. CONCLUSIONS: In this mostly male population, low BMD was significantly associated with PI therapy. Tenofovir recipients showed evidence of increased bone turnover. Measurement of BMD and estimation of fracture risk may be warranted in treated HIV-infected adults.

Incidence and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy over 20 years of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: We investigated the incidence and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals before and after the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in 1996. METHODS: From 1988 through 2007, 226 cases of PML were reported to the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. By chart review, we confirmed 186 cases and recorded all-cause and PML-attributable mortality. For the survival analysis, 25 patients with postmortem diagnosis and 2 without CD4+ T cell counts were excluded, leaving a total of 159 patients (89 before 1996 and 70 during 1996-2007). RESULTS: The incidence rate of PML decreased from 0.24 cases per 100 patient-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.29 cases per 100 PY) before 1996 to 0.06 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 0.04-0.10 cases per 100 PY) from 1996 onward. Patients who received a diagnosis before 1996 had a higher frequency of prior acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining conditions (P = .007) but similar CD4+ T cell counts (60 vs. 71 cells/microL; P = .25), compared with patients who received a diagnosis during 1996 or thereafter. The median time to PML-attributable death was 71 days (interquartile range, 44-140 days), compared with 90 days (interquartile range, 54-313 days) for all-cause mortality. The PML-attributable 1-year mortality rate decreased from 82.3 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 58.8-115.1 cases per 100 PY) during the pre-cART era to 37.6 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 23.4.-60.5 cases per 100 PY) during the cART era. In multivariate models, cART was the only factor associated with lower PML-attributable mortality (hazard ratio, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.07-0.50; P < .001), whereas all-cause mortality was associated with baseline CD4+ T cell count (hazard ratio per increase of 100 cells/microL, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85; P = .010) and cART use (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.19-0.75; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS: cART reduced the incidence and PML-attributable 1-year mortality, regardless of baseline CD4+ T cell count, whereas overall mortality was dependent on cART use and baseline CD4+ T cell count.

Mortality from HIV and TB coinfections is higher in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe and Argentina

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients worldwide. We aimed to study clinical characteristics and outcome of 1075 consecutive patients diagnosed with HIV/TB from 2004 to 2006 in Europe and Argentina. METHODS: One-year mortality was assessed in patients stratified according to region of residence, and factors associated with death were evaluated in multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: At TB diagnosis, patients in Eastern Europe had less advanced immunodeficiency, whereas a greater proportion had a history of intravenous drug use, coinfection with hepatitis C, disseminated TB, and infection with drug-resistant TB (P < 0.0001). In Eastern Europe, fewer patients initiated TB treatment containing at least rifamycin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide or combination antiretroviral therapy (P < 0.0001). Mortality at 1 year was 27% in Eastern Europe, compared with 7, 9 and 11% in Central/Northern Europe, Southern Europe, and Argentina, respectively (P < 0.0001). In a multivariable model, the adjusted relative hazard of death was significantly lower in each of the other regions compared with Eastern Europe: 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.17-0.65), 0.28 (0.14-0.57), 0.34 (0.15-0.77) in Argentina, Southern Europe and Central/Northern Europe, respectively. Factors significantly associated with increased mortality were CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/microl [2.31 (1.56-3.45)], prior AIDS [1.74 (1.22-2.47)], disseminated TB [2.00 (1.38-2.85)], initiation of TB treatment not including rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide [1.68 (1.20-2.36)], and rifamycin resistance [2.10 (1.29-3.41)]. Adjusting for these known confounders did not explain the increased mortality seen in Eastern Europe. CONCLUSION: The poor outcome of patients with HIV/TB in Eastern Europe deserves further study and urgent public health attention.

Hepatitis C virus drug resistance and immune-driven adaptations: relevance to new antiviral therapy

The efficacy of specifically targeted anti-viral therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) (STAT-C), including HCV protease and polymerase inhibitors, is limited by the presence of drug-specific viral resistance mutations within the targeted proteins. Genetic diversity within these viral proteins also evolves under selective pressures provided by host human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-restricted immune responses, which may therefore influence STAT-C treatment response. Here, the prevalence of drug resistance mutations relevant to 27 developmental STAT-C drugs, and the potential for drug and immune selective pressures to intersect at sites along the HCV genome, is explored. HCV nonstructural (NS) 3 protease or NS5B polymerase sequences and HLA assignment were obtained from study populations from Australia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Four hundred five treatment-naïve individuals with chronic HCV infection were considered (259 genotype 1, 146 genotype 3), of which 38.5% were coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We identified preexisting STAT-C drug resistance mutations in sequences from this large cohort. The frequency of the variations varied according to individual STAT-C drug and HCV genotype/subtype. Of individuals infected with subtype 1a, 21.5% exhibited genetic variation at a known drug resistance site. Furthermore, we identified areas in HCV protease and polymerase that are under both potential HLA-driven pressure and therapy selection and identified six HLA-associated polymorphisms (P

Long-term trends of HIV type 1 drug resistance prevalence among antiretroviral treatment-experienced patients in Switzerland

BACKGROUND:Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. METHODS:On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). RESULTS:Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had >or= 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. CONCLUSIONS:Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.