A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

EPA guidance on the early intervention in clinical high risk states of psychoses

This guidance paper from the European Psychiatric Association (EPA) aims to provide evidence-based recommendations on early intervention in clinical high risk (CHR) states of psychosis, assessed according to the EPA guidance on early detection. The recommendations were derived from a meta-analysis of current empirical evidence on the efficacy of psychological and pharmacological interventions in CHR samples. Eligible studies had to investigate conversion rate and/or functioning as a treatment outcome in CHR patients defined by the ultra-high risk and/or basic symptom criteria. Besides analyses on treatment effects on conversion rate and functional outcome, age and type of intervention were examined as potential moderators. Based on data from 15 studies (n = 1394), early intervention generally produced significantly reduced conversion rates at 6- to 48-month follow-up compared to control conditions. However, early intervention failed to achieve significantly greater functional provements because both early intervention and control conditions produced similar positive effects. With regard to the type of intervention, both psychological and pharmacological interventions produced significant effects on conversion rates, but not on functional outcome relative to the control conditions. Early intervention in youth samples was generally less effective than in predominantly adult samples. Seven evidence-based recommendations for early intervention in CHR samples could have been formulated, although more studies are needed to investigate the specificity of treatment effects and potential age effects in order to tailor interventions to the individual treatment needs and risk Status.

EPA guidance on the early detection of clinical high risk states of psychoses

The aim of this guidance paper of the European Psychiatric Association is to provide evidence-based recommendations on the early detection of a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis in patients with mental problems. To this aim, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting on conversion rates to psychosis in non-overlapping samples meeting any at least any one of the main CHR criteria: ultra-high risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms criteria. Further, effects of potential moderators (different UHR criteria definitions, single UHR criteria and age) on conversion rates were examined. Conversion rates in the identified 42 samples with altogether more than 4000 CHR patients who had mainly been identified by UHR criteria and/or the basic symptom criterion ‘cognitive disturbances’ (COGDIS) showed considerable heterogeneity. While UHR criteria and COGDIS were related to similar conversion rates until 2-year follow-up, conversion rates of COGDIS were significantly higher thereafter. Differences in onset and frequency requirements of symptomatic UHR criteria or in their different consideration of functional decline, substance use and co-morbidity did not seem to impact on conversion rates. The ‘genetic risk and functional decline’ UHR criterion was rarely met and only showed an insignificant pooled sample effect. However, age significantly affected UHR conversion rates with lower rates in children and adolescents. Although more research into potential sources of heterogeneity in conversion rates is needed to facilitate improvement of CHR criteria, six evidence-based recommendations for an early detection of psychosis were developed as a basis for the EPA guidance on early intervention in CHR states.

DNA Methylation-Guided Prediction of Clinical Failure in High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND Prostate cancer (PCa) is a very heterogeneous disease with respect to clinical outcome. This study explored differential DNA methylation in a priori selected genes to diagnose PCa and predict clinical failure (CF) in high-risk patients. METHODS A quantitative multiplex, methylation-specific PCR assay was developed to assess promoter methylation of the APC, CCND2, GSTP1, PTGS2 and RARB genes in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples from 42 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia and radical prostatectomy specimens of patients with high-risk PCa, encompassing training and validation cohorts of 147 and 71 patients, respectively. Log-rank tests, univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to investigate the prognostic value of the DNA methylation. RESULTS Hypermethylation of APC, CCND2, GSTP1, PTGS2 and RARB was highly cancer-specific. However, only GSTP1 methylation was significantly associated with CF in both independent high-risk PCa cohorts. Importantly, trichotomization into low, moderate and high GSTP1 methylation level subgroups was highly predictive for CF. Patients with either a low or high GSTP1 methylation level, as compared to the moderate methylation groups, were at a higher risk for CF in both the training (Hazard ratio [HR], 3.65; 95% CI, 1.65 to 8.07) and validation sets (HR, 4.27; 95% CI, 1.03 to 17.72) as well as in the combined cohort (HR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.42 to 5.27) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS Classification of primary high-risk tumors into three subtypes based on DNA methylation can be combined with clinico-pathological parameters for a more informative risk-stratification of these PCa patients.

Age matters in the prevalence and clinical significance of ultra-high-risk for psychosis symptoms and criteria in the general population: Findings from the BEAR and BEARS-kid studies

Early detection of psychosis is an important topic in psychiatry. Yet, there is limited information on the prevalence and clinical significance of high-risk symptoms in children and adolescents as compared to adults. We examined ultra-high-risk (UHR) symptoms and criteria in a sample of individuals aged 8-40 years from the general population of Canton Bern, Switzerland, enrolled from June 2011 to May 2014. The current presence of attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) and the fulfillment of onset/worsening and frequency requirements for these symptoms in UHR criteria were assessed using the Structured Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes. Additionally, perceptive and non-perceptive APS were differentiated. Psychosocial functioning and current non-psychotic DSM-IV axis I disorders were also surveyed. Well-trained psychologists performed assessments. Altogether, 9.9% of subjects reported APS and none BLIPS, and 1.3% met all the UHR requirements for APS. APS were related to more current axis I disorders and impaired psychosocial functioning, indicating some clinical significance. A strong age effect was detected around age 16: compared to older individuals, 8-15-year olds reported more perceptive APS, that is, unusual perceptual experiences and attenuated hallucinations. Perceptive APS were generally less related to functional impairment, regardless of age. Conversely, non-perceptive APS were related to low functioning, although this relationship was weaker in those below age 16. Future studies should address the differential effects of perceptive and non-perceptive APS, and their interaction with age, also in terms of conversion to psychosis.

Duration of unspecific prodromal and clinical high risk states, and early help-seeking in first-admission psychosis patients

PURPOSE Prevention of psychosis requires both presence of clinical high risk (CHR) criteria and early help-seeking. Previous retrospective studies of the duration of untreated illness (i.e. prodrome plus psychosis) did not distinguish between prodromal states with and without CHR symptoms. Therefore, we examined the occurrence of CHR symptoms and first help-seeking, thereby considering effects of age at illness-onset. METHODS Adult patients first admitted for psychosis (n = 126) were retrospectively assessed for early course of illness and characteristics of first help-seeking. RESULTS One-hundred and nine patients reported a prodrome, 58 with CHR symptoms. In patients with an early illness-onset before age 18 (n = 45), duration of both illness and psychosis were elongated, and CHR symptoms more frequent (68.9 vs. 33.3 %) compared to those with adult illness-onset. Only 29 patients reported help-seeking in the prodrome; this was mainly self-initiated, especially in patients with an early illness-onset. After the onset of first psychotic symptoms, help-seeking was mainly initiated by others. State- and age-independently, mental health professionals were the main first point-of-call (54.0 %). CONCLUSIONS Adult first-admission psychosis patients with an early, insidious onset of symptoms before age 18 were more likely to recall CHR symptoms as part of their prodrome. According to current psychosis-risk criteria, these CHR symptoms, in principle, would have allowed the early detection of psychosis. Furthermore, compared to patients with an adult illness-onset, patients with an early illness-onset were also more likely to seek help on their own account. Thus, future awareness strategies to improve CHR detection might be primarily related to young persons and self-perceived subtle symptoms.

Twelve-month psychosis-predictive value of the ultra-high risk criteria in children and adolescents

Objective The validity of current ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria is under-examined in help-seeking minors, particularly, in children below the age of 12 years. Thus, the present study investigated predictors of one-year outcome in children and adolescents (CAD) with UHR status. Method Thirty-five children and adolescents (age 9–17 years) meeting UHR criteria according to the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes were followed-up for 12 months. Regression analyses were employed to detect baseline predictors of conversion to psychosis and of outcome of non-converters (remission and persistence of UHR versus conversion). Results At one-year follow-up, 20% of patients had developed schizophrenia, 25.7% had remitted from their UHR status that, consequently, had persisted in 54.3%. No patient had fully remitted from mental disorders, even if UHR status was not maintained. Conversion was best predicted by any transient psychotic symptom and a disorganized communication score. No prediction model for outcome beyond conversion was identified. Conclusions Our findings provide the first evidence for the predictive utility of UHR criteria in CAD in terms of brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BIPS) when accompanied by signs of cognitive impairment, i.e. disorganized communication. However, because attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) related to thought content and perception were indicative of non-conversion at 1-year follow-up, their use in early detection of psychosis in CAD needs further study. Overall, the need for more in-depth studies into developmental peculiarities in the early detection and treatment of psychoses with an onset of illness in childhood and early adolescence was further highlighted.

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis.