Risk of severe asthma episodes predicted from fluctuation analysis of airway function

Asthma is an increasing health problem worldwide, but the long-term temporal pattern of clinical symptoms is not understood and predicting asthma episodes is not generally possible. We analyse the time series of peak expiratory flows, a standard measurement of airway function that has been assessed twice daily in a large asthmatic population during a long-term crossover clinical trial. Here we introduce an approach to predict the risk of worsening airflow obstruction by calculating the conditional probability that, given the current airway condition, a severe obstruction will occur within 30 days. We find that, compared with a placebo, a regular long-acting bronchodilator (salmeterol) that is widely used to improve asthma control decreases the risk of airway obstruction. Unexpectedly, however, a regular short-acting beta2-agonist bronchodilator (albuterol) increases this risk. Furthermore, we find that the time series of peak expiratory flows show long-range correlations that change significantly with disease severity, approaching a random process with increased variability in the most severe cases. Using a nonlinear stochastic model, we show that both the increased variability and the loss of correlations augment the risk of unstable airway function. The characterization of fluctuations in airway function provides a quantitative basis for objective risk prediction of asthma episodes and for evaluating the effectiveness of therapy.

A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough

BACKGROUND Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses. OBJECTIVE We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough. METHODS From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively. CONCLUSION This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations.

Effect of mannitol dry powder challenge on exhaled nitric oxide in children

BACKGROUND Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FENO), a non-invasive marker of eosinophilic airway inflammation, is increasingly used for diagnostic and therapeutic decisions in adult and paediatric asthma. Standardized guidelines for the measurement of FENO recommend performing FENO measurements before rather than after bronchial provocation tests. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether FENO levels decrease after a Mannitol dry powder (MDP) challenge in a clinical setting, and whether the extent of the decrease is influenced by number of MDP manoeuvres, baseline FENO, atopy and doctor diagnosed asthma. METHODS Children aged 6-16 years, referred for possible reactive airway disease to a respiratory outpatient clinic, performed an MDP challenge (Aridol®, Pharmaxis, Australia). FENO was measured in doublets immediately before and after the challenge test using the portable NIOX MINO® device (Aerocrine, Stockholm, Sweden). We analysed the data using Kruskal-Wallis rank tests, Wilcoxon signed rank tests and multivariable linear regressions. RESULTS One hundred and seven children completed both tests (mean±SD age 11.5±2.8 years). Overall, median (interquartile range) FENO decreased slightly by -2.5 ppb (-7.0, -0.5), from 18.5 ppb (10.5, 45.5) before the MDP challenge to 16.5 ppb thereafter (8.5, 40.5; p<0.001). In all participants, the change in FENO was smaller than one standard deviation of the baseline mean. The % fall in FENO was smaller in children with less MDP manoeuvres (e.g. higher bronchial responsiveness; p = 0.08) but was not influenced by levels of baseline FENO (p = 0.68), atopy (p = 0.84) or doctor diagnosed asthma (p = 0.93). CONCLUSION MDP challenge test influences FENO values but differences are small and clinically barely relevant.

Copy number variation of the Beta-defensin genes in europeans: no supporting evidence for association with lung function, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma

Lung function measures are heritable, predict mortality and are relevant in diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD and asthma are diseases of the airways with major public health impacts and each have a heritable component. Genome-wide association studies of SNPs have revealed novel genetic associations with both diseases but only account for a small proportion of the heritability. Complex copy number variation may account for some of the missing heritability. A well-characterised genomic region of complex copy number variation contains beta-defensin genes (DEFB103, DEFB104 and DEFB4), which have a role in the innate immune response. Previous studies have implicated these and related genes as being associated with asthma or COPD. We hypothesised that copy number variation of these genes may play a role in lung function in the general population and in COPD and asthma risk. We undertook copy number typing of this locus in 1149 adult and 689 children using a paralogue ratio test and investigated association with COPD, asthma and lung function. Replication of findings was assessed in a larger independent sample of COPD cases and smoking controls. We found evidence for an association of beta-defensin copy number with COPD in the adult cohort (OR = 1.4, 95%CI:1.02-1.92, P = 0.039) but this finding, and findings from a previous study, were not replicated in a larger follow-up sample(OR = 0.89, 95%CI:0.72-1.07, P = 0.217). No robust evidence of association with asthma in children was observed. We found no evidence for association between beta-defensin copy number and lung function in the general populations. Our findings suggest that previous reports of association of beta-defensin copy number with COPD should be viewed with caution. Suboptimal measurement of copy number can lead to spurious associations. Further beta-defensin copy number measurement in larger sample sizes of COPD cases and children with asthma are needed.

Preterm birth, infant weight gain, and childhood asthma risk: A meta-analysis of 147,000 European children

BACKGROUND Preterm birth, low birth weight, and infant catch-up growth seem associated with an increased risk of respiratory diseases in later life, but individual studies showed conflicting results. OBJECTIVES We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis for 147,252 children of 31 birth cohort studies to determine the associations of birth and infant growth characteristics with the risks of preschool wheezing (1-4 years) and school-age asthma (5-10 years). METHODS First, we performed an adjusted 1-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the combined associations of gestational age, birth weight, and infant weight gain with childhood asthma. Second, we performed an adjusted 2-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the associations of preterm birth (gestational age <37 weeks) and low birth weight (<2500 g) with childhood asthma outcomes. RESULTS Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were independently associated with higher risks of preschool wheezing and school-age asthma (P < .05). The inverse associations of birth weight with childhood asthma were explained by gestational age at birth. Compared with term-born children with normal infant weight gain, we observed the highest risks of school-age asthma in children born preterm with high infant weight gain (odds ratio [OR], 4.47; 95% CI, 2.58-7.76). Preterm birth was positively associated with an increased risk of preschool wheezing (pooled odds ratio [pOR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.25-1.43) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67) independent of birth weight. Weaker effect estimates were observed for the associations of low birth weight adjusted for gestational age at birth with preschool wheezing (pOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.21) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27). CONCLUSION Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were associated with childhood asthma outcomes. The associations of lower birth weight with childhood asthma were largely explained by gestational age at birth.

Abnormal small airways function in children with mild asthma

BACKGROUND Small airways disease is a hallmark in adults with persistent asthma, but little is known about small airways function in children with mild asthma and normal spirometry. We assessed ventilation heterogeneity, a marker of small airways function, with an easy tidal breath single-breath washout (SBW) technique in school-aged children with mild asthma and normal FEV1 and healthy age-matched control subjects. METHODS The primary outcome was the double-tracer gas phase III slope (SDTG), an index of ventilation heterogeneity in acinar airways derived from the tidal double-tracer gas SBW test. The second outcome was the nitrogen phase III slope (SN2), an index of global ventilation heterogeneity derived from the tidal nitrogen SBW test using pure oxygen. Triplicate SBW and spirometry tests were performed in healthy children (n = 35) and children with asthma (n = 31) at baseline and in children with asthma after bronchodilation. RESULTS Acinar (SDTG) but not global (SN2) ventilation heterogeneity was significantly increased in asthma despite normal FEV1. Of the 31 children with asthma, abnormal results were found for SDTG (≤ -2 z scores) in 11; forced expiratory flow, midexpiratory phase (FEF25%-75%) in three; and FEV1 in zero. After bronchodilation, SDTG, SN2, FEF25%-75%, and FEV1 significantly changed (mean [95% CI] change from baseline, 36% [15%-56%], 38% [18%-58%], 17% [9-25%], and 6% [3%-9%], respectively). CONCLUSIONS Abnormal acinar ventilation heterogeneity in one-third of the children suggests that small airways disease may be present despite rare and mild asthma symptoms and normal spirometry. The easy tidal SBW technique has considerable potential as a clinical and research outcome in children with asthma.

Asthma and allergies: is the farming environment (still) protective in Poland? The GABRIEL Advanced Studies

BACKGROUND Evidence exists that a farming environment in childhood may provide protection against atopic respiratory disease. In the GABRIEL project based in Poland and Alpine regions of Germany, Austria and Switzerland, we aimed to assess whether a farming environment in childhood is protective against allergic diseases in Poland and whether specific exposures explain any protective effect. METHODS In rural Poland, 23 331 families of schoolchildren completed a questionnaire enquiring into farming practices and allergic diseases (Phase I). A subsample (n = 2586) participated in Phase II involving a more detailed questionnaire on specific farm exposures with objective measures of atopy. RESULTS Farming differed between Poland and the Alpine centres; in the latter, cattle farming was prevalent, whereas in Poland 18% of village farms kept ≥1 cow and 34% kept ≥1 pig. Polish children in villages had lower prevalences of asthma and hay fever than children from towns, and in the Phase II population, farm children had a reduced risk of atopy measured by IgE (aOR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.57, 0.91) and skin prick test (aOR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.50, 0.86). Early-life contact with grain was inversely related to the risk of atopy measured by IgE (aOR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.47, 0.92) and appeared to explain part of the farming effect. CONCLUSION While farming in Poland differed from that in the Alpine areas as did the exposure-response associations, we found in communities engaged in small-scale, mixed farming, there was a protective farming effect against objective measures of atopy potentially related to contact with grain or associated farm activities.

Spontaneous peristaltic airway contractions propel lung liquid through the bronchial tree of intact and fetal lung explants

Spontaneous contractions of the fetal airways are a well recognized but poorly characterized phenomenon. In the present study spontaneous narrowing of the airways was analyzed in freshly isolated lungs from early to late gestation in fetal pigs and rabbits and in cultured fetal mouse lungs. Propagating waves of contraction traveling proximal to distal were observed in fresh lungs throughout gestation which displaced the lung liquid along the lumen. In the pseudoglandular and canalicular stages (fetal pigs) the frequency ranged from 2.3 to 3.3 contractions/min with a 39 to 46% maximum reduction of lumen diameter. In the saccular stage (rabbit) the frequency was 10 to 12/min with a narrowing of approximately 30%. In the organ cultures the waves of narrowing started at the trachea in whole lungs, or at the main bronchus in lobes (5.2 +/- 1.5 contractions/min, 22 +/- 8% reduction of lumen diameter), and as they proceeded distally along the epithelial tubes the luminal liquid was shifted toward the terminal tubules, which expanded the endbuds. As the tubules relaxed the flow of liquid was reversed. Thus the behavior of airway smooth muscle in the fetal lung is phasic in type (like gastrointestinal muscle) in contrast to that in postnatal lung, where it is tonic. An intraluminal positive pressure of 2.33 +/- 0.77 cm H(2)O was recorded in rabbit fetal trachea. It is proposed that the active tone of the smooth muscle maintains the positive intraluminal pressure and acts as a stimulus to lung growth via the force exerted across the airway wall and adjacent parenchyma. The expansion of the compliant endbuds by the fluid shifts at the airway tip may promote their growth into the surrounding mesenchyme.

Breastfeeding and Childhood Asthma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Asthma and wheezing disorders are common chronic health problems in childhood. Breastfeeding provides health benefits, but it is not known whether or how breastfeeding decreases the risk of developing asthma. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published between 1983 and 2012 on breastfeeding and asthma in children from the general population. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases for cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies. We grouped the outcomes into asthma ever, recent asthma, or recent wheezing illness (recent asthma or recent wheeze). Using random-effects meta-analyses, we estimated pooled odds ratios of the association of breastfeeding with the risk for each of these outcomes. We performed meta-regression and stratified meta-analyses. We included 117 of 1,464 titles identified by our search. The pooled odds ratios were 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.74, 0.84) for 75 studies analyzing "asthma ever," 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.67, 0.86) for 46 studies analyzing "recent asthma," and 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.76, 0.87) for 94 studies analyzing recent wheezing illness. After stratification by age, the strong protective association found at ages 0-2 years diminished over time. We found no evidence for differences by study design or study quality or between studies in Western and non-Western countries. A positive association of breastfeeding with reduced asthma/wheezing is supported by the combined evidence of existing studies.

A Comparative Analysis of Bronchial Stricture After Lung Transplantation in Recipients With and Without Early Acute Rejection

BACKGROUND: Risk factors and outcomes of bronchial stricture after lung transplantation are not well defined. An association between acute rejection and development of stricture has been suggested in small case series. We evaluated this relationship using a large national registry. METHODS: All lung transplantations between April 1994 and December 2008 per the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database were analyzed. Generalized linear models were used to determine the association between early rejection and development of stricture after adjusting for potential confounders. The association of stricture with postoperative lung function and overall survival was also evaluated. RESULTS: Nine thousand three hundred thirty-five patients were included for analysis. The incidence of stricture was 11.5% (1,077/9,335), with no significant change in incidence during the study period (P=0.13). Early rejection was associated with a significantly greater incidence of stricture (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-1.61; p<0.0001). Male sex, restrictive lung disease, and pretransplantation requirement for hospitalization were also associated with stricture. Those who experienced stricture had a lower postoperative peak percent predicted forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) (median 74% versus 86% for bilateral transplants only; p<0.0001), shorter unadjusted survival (median 6.09 versus 6.82 years; p<0.001) and increased risk of death after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.23; p=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Early rejection is associated with an increased incidence of stricture. Recipients with stricture demonstrate worse postoperative lung function and survival. Prospective studies may be warranted to further assess causality and the potential for coordinated rejection and stricture surveillance strategies to improve postoperative outcomes.

Comparative effectiveness of long term drug treatment strategies to prevent asthma exacerbations: network meta-analysis

Objective To determine the comparative effectiveness and safety of current maintenance strategies in preventing exacerbations of asthma. Design Systematic review and network meta-analysis using Bayesian statistics. Data sources Cochrane systematic reviews on chronic asthma, complemented by an updated search when appropriate. Eligibility criteria Trials of adults with asthma randomised to maintenance treatments of at least 24 weeks duration and that reported on asthma exacerbations in full text. Low dose inhaled corticosteroid treatment was the comparator strategy. The primary effectiveness outcome was the rate of severe exacerbations. The secondary outcome was the composite of moderate or severe exacerbations. The rate of withdrawal was analysed as a safety outcome. Results 64 trials with 59 622 patient years of follow-up comparing 15 strategies and placebo were included. For prevention of severe exacerbations, combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists as maintenance and reliever treatment and combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists in a fixed daily dose performed equally well and were ranked first for effectiveness. The rate ratios compared with low dose inhaled corticosteroids were 0.44 (95% credible interval 0.29 to 0.66) and 0.51 (0.35 to 0.77), respectively. Other combined strategies were not superior to inhaled corticosteroids and all single drug treatments were inferior to single low dose inhaled corticosteroids. Safety was best for conventional best (guideline based) practice and combined maintenance and reliever therapy. Conclusions Strategies with combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists are most effective and safe in preventing severe exacerbations of asthma, although some heterogeneity was observed in this network meta-analysis of full text reports.