Postnatal retention in HIV care: insight from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over a 15-year observational period.

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to quantify loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV care after delivery and to identify risk factors for LTFU, and implications for HIV disease progression and subsequent pregnancies. METHODS We used data on pregnancies within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 1996 to 2011. A delayed clinical visit was defined as > 180 days and LTFU as no visit for > 365 days after delivery. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for LTFU. RESULTS A total of 695 pregnancies in 580 women were included in the study, of which 115 (17%) were subsequent pregnancies. Median maternal age was 32 years (IQR 28-36 years) and 104 (15%) women reported any history of injecting drug use (IDU). Overall, 233 of 695 (34%) women had a delayed visit in the year after delivery and 84 (12%) women were lost to follow-up. Being lost to follow-up was significantly associated with a history of IDU [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-5.88; P = 0.007] and not achieving an undetectable HIV viral load (VL) at delivery (aOR 2.42; 95% CI 1.21-4.85; P = 0.017) after adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity and being on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at conception. Forty-three of 84 (55%) women returned to care after LTFU. Half of them (20 of 41) with available CD4 had a CD4 count < 350 cells/μL and 15% (six of 41) a CD4 count < 200 cells/μL at their return. CONCLUSIONS A history of IDU and detectable HIV VL at delivery were associated with LTFU. Effective strategies are warranted to retain women in care beyond pregnancy and to avoid CD4 cell count decline. ART continuation should be advised especially if a subsequent pregnancy is planned.

The HIV care cascade in Switzerland: reaching the UNAIDS/WHO targets for patients diagnosed with HIV.

OBJECTIVES To describe the HIV care cascade for Switzerland in the year 2012. DESIGN/METHODS Six levels were defined: (i) HIV-infected, (ii) HIV-diagnosed, (iii) linked to care, (iv) retained in care, (v) on antiretroviral treatment (ART), and (vi) with suppressed viral load (VL). We used data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) complemented by a nationwide survey among SHCS physicians to estimate the number of HIV-patients not registered in the cohort. We also used Swiss ART sales data to estimate the number of patients treated outside the SHCS network. Based on the number of patients retained in care, we inferred the estimates for levels (i) to (iii) from previously published data. RESULTS We estimate that (i) 15,200 HIV-infected individuals lived in Switzerland in 2012 (margins of uncertainty, 13,400-19,300). Of those, (ii) 12,300 (81%) were diagnosed, (iii) 12,200 (80%) linked, and (iv) 11,900 (79%) retained in care. Broadly based on SHCS network data, (v) 10,800 (71%) patients were receiving ART, and (vi) 10,400 (68%) had suppressed (<200 copies/ml) VLs. The vast majority (95%) of patients retained in care were followed within the SHCS network, with 76% registered in the cohort. CONCLUSIONS Our estimate for HIV-infected individuals in Switzerland is substantially lower than previously reported, halving previous national HIV prevalence estimates to 0.2%. In Switzerland in 2012, 91% of patients in care were receiving ART, and 96% of patients on ART had suppressed VL, meeting recent UNAIDS/WHO targets.

HIV-1 Transmission During Recent Infection and During Treatment Interruptions as Major Drivers of New Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND  Reducing the fraction of transmissions during recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is essential for the population-level success of "treatment as prevention". METHODS  A phylogenetic tree was constructed with 19 604 Swiss sequences and 90 994 non-Swiss background sequences. Swiss transmission pairs were identified using 104 combinations of genetic distance (1%-2.5%) and bootstrap (50%-100%) thresholds, to examine the effect of those criteria. Monophyletic pairs were classified as recent or chronic transmission based on the time interval between estimated seroconversion dates. Logistic regression with adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics was used to identify risk factors associated with transmission during recent or chronic infection. FINDINGS  Seroconversion dates were estimated for 4079 patients on the phylogeny, and comprised between 71 (distance, 1%; bootstrap, 100%) to 378 transmission pairs (distance, 2.5%; bootstrap, 50%). We found that 43.7% (range, 41%-56%) of the transmissions occurred during the first year of infection. Stricter phylogenetic definition of transmission pairs was associated with higher recent-phase transmission fraction. Chronic-phase viral load area under the curve (adjusted odds ratio, 3; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-5.48) and time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) start (adjusted odds ratio 1.4/y; 1.11-1.77) were associated with chronic-phase transmission as opposed to recent transmission. Importantly, at least 14% of the chronic-phase transmission events occurred after the transmitter had interrupted ART. CONCLUSIONS  We demonstrate a high fraction of transmission during recent HIV infection but also chronic transmissions after interruption of ART in Switzerland. Both represent key issues for treatment as prevention and underline the importance of early diagnosis and of early and continuous treatment.

Comparative effectiveness of immediate antiretroviral therapy versus CD4-based initiation in HIV-positive individuals in high-income countries: observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND Recommendations have differed nationally and internationally with respect to the best time to start antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared effectiveness of three strategies for initiation of ART in high-income countries for HIV-positive individuals who do not have AIDS: immediate initiation, initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL. METHODS We used data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration of cohort studies in Europe and the USA. We included 55 826 individuals aged 18 years or older who were diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between January, 2000, and September, 2013, had not started ART, did not have AIDS, and had CD4 count and HIV-RNA viral load measurements within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. We estimated relative risks of death and of death or AIDS-defining illness, mean survival time, the proportion of individuals in need of ART, and the proportion of individuals with HIV-RNA viral load less than 50 copies per mL, as would have been recorded under each ART initiation strategy after 7 years of HIV diagnosis. We used the parametric g-formula to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. FINDINGS Median CD4 count at diagnosis of HIV infection was 376 cells per μL (IQR 222-551). Compared with immediate initiation, the estimated relative risk of death was 1·02 (95% CI 1·01-1·02) when ART was started at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and 1·06 (1·04-1·08) with initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL. Corresponding estimates for death or AIDS-defining illness were 1·06 (1·06-1·07) and 1·20 (1·17-1·23), respectively. Compared with immediate initiation, the mean survival time at 7 years with a strategy of initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL was 2 days shorter (95% CI 1-2) and at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL was 5 days shorter (4-6). 7 years after diagnosis of HIV, 100%, 98·7% (95% CI 98·6-98·7), and 92·6% (92·2-92·9) of individuals would have been in need of ART with immediate initiation, initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL, respectively. Corresponding proportions of individuals with HIV-RNA viral load less than 50 copies per mL at 7 years were 87·3% (87·3-88·6), 87·4% (87·4-88·6), and 83·8% (83·6-84·9). INTERPRETATION The benefits of immediate initiation of ART, such as prolonged survival and AIDS-free survival and increased virological suppression, were small in this high-income setting with relatively low CD4 count at HIV diagnosis. The estimated beneficial effect on AIDS is less than in recently reported randomised trials. Increasing rates of HIV testing might be as important as a policy of early initiation of ART. FUNDING National Institutes of Health.

First isolation of a rhabdovirus from perch Perca fluviatilis in Switzerland

Perca fluviatilis is a fish species of increasing interest to the Swiss fish farming industry. In recent years, recirculation systems have been specifically set up to increase production. In one of these farms, abnormal spiral swimming associated with elevated mortalities occurred in repeated batches of imported perch shortly after stocking on several occasions. No bacterial or parasitic etiology was detected, but a virus grown in bluegill fry (BF-2) cells was identified as perch rhabdovirus. Subsequent investigations of other samples suggested a viral tropism for the central nervous system (CNS). Phylogenetic analysis of the partial N and entire G gene sequences positioned this isolate in genogroup C of the species Perch rhabdovirus, with high nucleotide and amino acid (aa) sequence identities with the DK5533 strain isolated in Denmark in 1989. Comparative studies using other closely related isolates allowed the distinction of 2 serological Patterns among perch rhabdoviruses and the identification of a proline substitution by a serine in Position 147 of the glycoprotein potentially involved in antigenic differentiation. Even if perch imported onto the farm tested negative by virus isolation prior to transport, they may have been the origin of this outbreak since CNS tissue was not included in the samples that were analyzed. Another possibility might be a sub-clinical infection with a viral load in resident fish too low to be detected. This study reports the first isolation of a perch rhabdovirus in Switzerland, and emphasizes the necessity of optimizing diagnostic tools that facilitate better control of the risks associated with fish translocation.

Cytomegalovirus infection and disease reduce 10-year cardiac allograft vasculopathy-free survival in heart transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is associated with an increased risk of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), the major limiting factor for long-term survival after heart transplantation (HTx). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of CMV infection during long-term follow-up after HTx. METHODS A retrospective, single-centre study analyzed 226 HTx recipients (mean age 45 ± 13 years, 78 % men) who underwent transplantation between January 1988 and December 2000. The incidence and risk factors for CMV infection during the first year after transplantation were studied. Risk factors for CAV were included in an analyses of CAV-free survival within 10 years post-transplant. The effect of CMV infection on the grade of CAV was analyzed. RESULTS Survival to 10 years post-transplant was higher in patients with no CMV infection (69 %) compared with patients with CMV disease (55 %; p = 0.018) or asymptomatic CMV infection (54 %; p = 0.053). CAV-free survival time was higher in patients with no CMV infection (6.7 years; 95 % CI, 6.0-7.4) compared with CMV disease (4.2 years; CI, 3.2-5.2; p < 0.001) or asymptomatic CMV infection (5.4 years; CI, 4.3-6.4; p = 0.013). In univariate analysis, recipient age, donor age, coronary artery disease (CAD), asymptomatic CMV infection and CMV disease were significantly associated with CAV-free survival. In multivariate regression analysis, CMV disease, asymptomatic CMV infection, CAD and donor age remained independent predictors of CAV-free survival at 10 years post-transplant. CONCLUSIONS CAV-free survival was significantly reduced in patients with CMV disease and asymptomatic CMV infection compared to patients without CMV infection. These findings highlight the importance of close monitoring of CMV viral load and appropriate therapeutic strategies for preventing asymptomatic CMV infection.

Age-specific and sex-specific weight gain norms to monitor antiretroviral therapy in children in low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND Viral load and CD4% are often not available in resource-limited settings for monitoring children's responses to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to construct normative curves for weight gain at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following initiation of ART in children, and to assess the association between poor weight gain and subsequent responses to ART. DESIGN Analysis of data from HIV-infected children younger than 10 years old from African and Asian clinics participating in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS. METHODS The generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape was used to construct normative percentile curves for weight gain at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following ART initiation. Cox proportional models were used to assess the association between lower percentiles (< 50th) of weight gain distribution at the different time points and subsequent death, virological suppression, and virological failure. RESULTS Among 7173 children from five regions of the world, 45% were underweight at baseline. Weight gain below the 50th percentile at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of ART was associated with increased risk of death, independent of baseline characteristics. Poor weight gain was not associated with increased hazards of virological suppression or virological failure. CONCLUSION Monitoring weight gain on ART using age-specific and sex-specific normative curves specifically developed for HIV-infected children on ART is a simple, rapid, sustainable tool that can aid in the identification of children who are at increased risk of death in the first year of ART.

Comparison of innate immune responses towards rhinovirus infection of primary nasal and bronchial epithelial cells.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Rhinoviruses (RV) replicate in both upper and lower airway epithelial cells. We evaluated the possibility of using nasal epithelial cells (NEC) as surrogate of bronchial epithelial cells (BEC) for RV pathogenesis cell culture studies. METHODS We used primary paired NEC and BEC cultures established from healthy subjects and compared the replication of RV belonging to the major (RV16) and minor (RV1B) group, and the cellular antiviral and proinflammatory cytokine responses towards these viruses. We related antiviral and pro-inflammatory responses of NEC isolated from CF and COPD patients with those of BEC. RESULTS RV16 replication and major group surface receptor (ICAM-1) expression were higher in healthy NEC compared with BEC (P < 0.05); RV1B replication and minor group surface receptor (LDLR) expression were similar. Healthy NEC and BEC produced similar levels of IFN-β and IFN-λ2/3 upon RV infection or after simulation with poly(IC). IL-8 production was similar between healthy NEC and BEC. IL-6 release at baseline (P < 0.01) and upon infection with RV16 (P < 0.05) and poly(IC) stimulation (P < 0.05) was higher in NEC. RV1B viral load in NEC was related to RV1B viral load in BEC (r = 0.49, P = 0.01). There was a good correlation of IFN levels between NEC and BEC (r = 0.66, P = 0.0004 after RV1B infection). IL-8 production in NEC was related to IL-8 production in BEC (r = 0.48, P = 0.02 after RV1B infection). CONCLUSION NEC are a suitable alternative cellular system to BEC to study the pathophysiology of RV infections and particularly to investigate IFN responses induced by RV infection.

Vitamin D represses rhinovirus replication in cystic fibrosis cells by inducing LL-37.

Vitamin D has immunomodulatory properties in the defence against pathogens. Its insufficiency is a widespread feature of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients, which are repeatedly suffering from rhinovirus (RV)-induced pulmonary exacerbations.To investigate whether vitamin D has antiviral activity, primary bronchial epithelial cells from CF children were pre-treated with vitamin D and infected with RV16. Antiviral and anti-inflammatory activity of vitamin D was assessed. RV and LL-37 levels were measured in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) of CF children infected with RV.Vitamin D reduced RV16 load in a dose-dependent manner in CF cells (10(-7 )M, p<0.01). The antiviral response mediated by interferons remained unchanged by vitamin D in CF cells. Vitamin D did not exert anti-inflammatory properties in RV-infected CF cells. Vitamin D increased the expression of the antimicrobial peptide LL-37 up to 17.4-fold (p<0.05). Addition of exogenous LL-37 decreased viral replication by 4.4-fold in CF cells (p<0.05). An inverse correlation between viral load and LL-37 levels in CF BAL (r=-0.48, p<0.05) was observed.RV replication in primary CF bronchial cells was reduced by vitamin D through the induction of LL-37. Clinical studies are needed to determine the importance of an adequate control of vitamin D for prevention of virus-induced pulmonary CF exacerbations.

The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included. FINDINGS Depending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries. INTERPRETATION Donors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs. FUNDING World Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

In Utero Exposure to Antiretroviral Drugs: Effect on Birth Weight and Growth Among HIV-exposed Uninfected Children in Brazil.

BACKGROUND There are concerns about the effects of in utero exposure to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) on the development of HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) children. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether in utero exposure to ARVs is associated with lower birth weight/height and reduced growth during the first 2 years of life. METHODS This cohort study was conducted among HEU infants born between 1996 and 2010 in Tertiary children's hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Weight was measured by mechanical scale, and height was measured by measuring board. Z-scores for weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length were calculated. We modeled trajectories by mixed-effects models and adjusted for mother's age, CD4 cell count, viral load, year of birth and family income. RESULTS A total of 588 HEU infants were included of whom 155 (26%) were not exposed to ARVs, 114 (19%) were exposed early (first trimester) and 319 (54%) later. WAZ were lower among infants exposed early compared with infants exposed later: adjusted differences were -0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.99 to -0.04, P = 0.02) at birth and -0.22 (95% CI: -0.47 to 0.04, P = 0.10) during follow-up. LAZ were lower during follow-up: -0.35 (95% CI: -0.63 to -0.08, P = 0.01). There were no differences in weight-for-length scores. Z-scores of infants exposed late during pregnancy were similar to unexposed infants. CONCLUSIONS In HEU children, early exposure to ARVs was associated with lower WAZ at birth and lower LAZ up to 2 years of life. Growth of HEU children needs to be monitored closely.

Sexual Activity Without Condoms and Risk of HIV Transmission in Serodifferent Couples When the HIV-Positive Partner Is Using Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy

Importance A key factor in assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as a prevention strategy is the absolute risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex with suppressed HIV-1 RNA viral load for both anal and vaginal sex. Objective To evaluate the rate of within-couple HIV transmission (heterosexual and men who have sex with men [MSM]) during periods of sex without condoms and when the HIV-positive partner had HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Design, Setting, and Participants The prospective, observational PARTNER (Partners of People on ART-A New Evaluation of the Risks) study was conducted at 75 clinical sites in 14 European countries and enrolled 1166 HIV serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex (September 2010 to May 2014). Eligibility criteria for inclusion of couple-years of follow-up were condomless sex and HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Anonymized phylogenetic analysis compared couples' HIV-1 polymerase and envelope sequences if an HIV-negative partner became infected to determine phylogenetically linked transmissions. Exposures Condomless sexual activity with an HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive ART. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of within-couple HIV transmission to the HIV-negative partner. Results Among 1166 enrolled couples, 888 (mean age, 42 years [IQR, 35-48]; 548 heterosexual [61.7%] and 340 MSM [38.3%]) provided 1238 eligible couple-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 1.3 years [IQR, 0.8-2.0]). At baseline, couples reported condomless sex for a median of 2 years (IQR, 0.5-6.3). Condomless sex with other partners was reported by 108 HIV-negative MSM (33%) and 21 heterosexuals (4%). During follow-up, couples reported condomless sex a median of 37 times per year (IQR, 15-71), with MSM couples reporting approximately 22 000 condomless sex acts and heterosexuals approximately 36 000. Although 11 HIV-negative partners became HIV-positive (10 MSM; 1 heterosexual; 8 reported condomless sex with other partners), no phylogenetically linked transmissions occurred over eligible couple-years of follow-up, giving a rate of within-couple HIV transmission of zero, with an upper 95% confidence limit of 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up. The upper 95% confidence limit for condomless anal sex was 0.71 per 100 couple-years of follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance Among serodifferent heterosexual and MSM couples in which the HIV-positive partner was using suppressive ART and who reported condomless sex, during median follow-up of 1.3 years per couple, there were no documented cases of within-couple HIV transmission (upper 95% confidence limit, 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up). Additional longer-term follow-up is necessary to provide more precise estimates of risk.