Prediction of first coronary events with the Framingham score: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty exists about the performance of the Framingham risk score when applied in different populations. OBJECTIVE: We assessed calibration of the Framingham risk score (ie, relationship between predicted and observed coronary event rates) in US and non-US populations free of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We reviewed studies that evaluated the performance of the Framingham risk score to predict first coronary events in a validation cohort, as identified by Medline, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library searches (through August 2005). Two reviewers independently assessed 1496 studies for eligibility, extracted data, and performed quality assessment using predefined forms. RESULTS: We included 25 validation cohorts of different population groups (n = 128,000) in our main analysis. Calibration varied over a wide range from under- to overprediction of absolute risk by factors of 0.57 to 2.7. Risk prediction for 7 cohorts (n = 18658) from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand was well calibrated (corresponding figures: 0.87-1.08; for the 5 biggest cohorts). The estimated population risks for first coronary events were strongly associated (goodness of fit: R2 = 0.84) and in good agreement with observed risks (coefficient for predicted risk: beta = 0.84; 95% CI 0.41-1.26). In 18 European cohorts (n = 109499), the corresponding figures indicated close association (R2 = 0.72) but substantial overprediction (beta = 0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.77). The risk score was well calibrated on the intercept for both population clusters. CONCLUSION: The Framingham score is well calibrated to predict first coronary events in populations from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Overestimation of absolute risk in European cohorts requires recalibration procedures.

Time- and dose-related regional fluxes of tissue-type plasminogen activator in anesthetized endotoxemic pigs

BACKGROUND: Acute endotoxinemia elicits an early fibrinolytic response. This study analyzes the effects of the dose and duration of endotoxin infusion on arterial levels of tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA) and pulmonary, mesenteric and hepatic plasma tPA fluxes. METHODS: Pigs were randomized to receive an acute, high-dose (for 6 h, n=13, high ETX) or a prolonged, low-dose (for 18 h, n=18, low ETX) infusion of endotoxin or saline vehicle alone (for 18 h, n=14, control). All animals were fluid resuscitated to maintain a normodynamic circulation. Systemic and regional blood flows were measured and arterial, pulmonary arterial, portal and hepatic venous blood samples were analyzed to calculate regional net fluxes of tPA. Plasma tumor necrosis factor (TNF-alpha) levels were analyzed. RESULTS: Mesenteric tPA release and hepatic uptake increased maximally at 1.5 h in ETX groups related to dose. Maximal mesenteric tPA release [high ETX 612 (138-1185) microg/min/kg, low ETX 72 (32-94) microg/min/kg, median+/-interquartile range] and hepatic tPA uptake [high ETX -1549 (-1134 to -2194) microg/min/kg, low ETX -153 (-105 to -307) microg/min/kg] correlated to TNF-alpha levels. Regional tPA fluxes returned to baseline levels at 6 h in both ETX groups and also remained low during sustained low ETX. No changes were observed in control animals. CONCLUSIONS: Endotoxemia induces an early increase in mesenteric tPA release and hepatic tPA uptake related to the severity of endotoxemia. The time patterns of changes in mesenteric and hepatic tPA fluxes are similar in acute high-dose endotoxemia and sustained low-dose endotoxemia.

Experimental pneumococcal meningitis causes central nervous system pathology without inducing the 72-kd heat shock protein

We examined whether experimental pneumococcal meningitis induced the 72-kd heat shock protein (HSP72), a sensitive marker of neuronal stress in other models of central nervous system (CNS) injury. Brain injury was characterized by vasculitis, cerebritis, and abscess formation in the cortex of infected animals. The extent of these changes correlated with the size of the inoculum (P less than 0.003) and with pathophysiologic parameters of disease severity, i.e., cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate (r = 0.61, P less than 0.0001) and CSF glucose concentrations (r = -0.55, P less than 0.0001). Despite the presence of numerous cortical regions having morphologic evidence of injury, HSP72 was not detected in most animals. When present, only rare neurons were HSP72 positive. Western blot analysis of brain samples confirmed the paucity of HSP72 induction. The lack of neuronal HSP72 expression in this model suggests that at least some of the events leading to neuronal injury in meningitis are unique, when compared with CNS diseases associated with HSP72 induction.