Risk assessment and causal preventive measures.

A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed at an early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patients should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. A table with common beverages and foodstuffs is presented for judging the erosive potential. Particularly, patients with more than 4 dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, use of calcium-enriched beverages, optimization of prophylactic regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with an erosive-protecting toothpaste as well as rinsing solutions. Since erosion and abrasion often occur simultaneously, all of the causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies but only those important and feasible for an individual should be communicated to the patient.

Hemoglobin, iron metabolism and angiographic coronary artery disease (The Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study).

BACKGROUND Anemia has been shown to be a risk factor for coronary artery disease and mortality. The involvement of body iron stores in the development of CAD remains controversial. So far, studies that examined hemoglobin and parameters of iron metabolism simultaneously do not exist. METHODS AND RESULTS Hemoglobin and iron status were determined in 1480 patients with stable angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) and in 682 individuals in whom CAD had been ruled out by angiography. The multivariate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for CAD in the lowest quartiles of hemoglobin and iron were 1.62 (95%CI: 1.22-2.16), and 2.05 (95%CI: 1.51-2.78), respectively compared to their highest gender-specific quartiles. The fully adjusted ORs for CAD in the lowest quartiles of transferrin saturation, ferritin (F) and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR)/log10F index were 1.69 (95%CI: 1.25-2.27), 1.98 (95%CI: 1.48-2.65), and 1.64 (95%CI: 1.23-2.18), respectively compared to their highest gender-specific quartiles. When adjusting in addition for iron and ferritin the OR for CAD in the lowest quartiles of hemoglobin was still 1.40 (95%CI: 1.04-1.90) compared to the highest gender-specific quartiles. Thus, the associations between either iron status or low hemoglobin and CAD appeared independent from each other. The sTfR was only marginally associated with angiographic CAD. CONCLUSIONS Both low hemoglobin and iron depletion are independently associated with angiographic CAD.

Stratification of high-risk prostate cancer into prognostic categories: a European multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND High-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is an extremely heterogeneous disease. A clear definition of prognostic subgroups is mandatory. OBJECTIVE To develop a pretreatment prognostic model for PCa-specific survival (PCSS) in high-risk PCa based on combinations of unfavorable risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 1360 consecutive patients with high-risk PCa treated at eight European high-volume centers. INTERVENTION Retropubic radical prostatectomy with pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Two Cox multivariable regression models were constructed to predict PCSS as a function of dichotomization of clinical stage (< cT3 vs cT3-4), Gleason score (GS) (2-7 vs 8-10), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA; ≤ 20 ng/ml vs > 20 ng/ml). The first "extended" model includes all seven possible combinations; the second "simplified" model includes three subgroups: a good prognosis subgroup (one single high-risk factor); an intermediate prognosis subgroup (PSA >20 ng/ml and stage cT3-4); and a poor prognosis subgroup (GS 8-10 in combination with at least one other high-risk factor). The predictive accuracy of the models was summarized and compared. Survival estimates and clinical and pathologic outcomes were compared between the three subgroups. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS The simplified model yielded an R(2) of 33% with a 5-yr area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 with no significant loss of predictive accuracy compared with the extended model (R(2): 34%; AUC: 0.71). The 5- and 10-yr PCSS rates were 98.7% and 95.4%, 96.5% and 88.3%, 88.8% and 79.7%, for the good, intermediate, and poor prognosis subgroups, respectively (p = 0.0003). Overall survival, clinical progression-free survival, and histopathologic outcomes significantly worsened in a stepwise fashion from the good to the poor prognosis subgroups. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS This study presents an intuitive and easy-to-use stratification of high-risk PCa into three prognostic subgroups. The model is useful for counseling and decision making in the pretreatment setting.

Background Ionizing Radiation and the Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-Based Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Exposure to medium or high doses of ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer in children. The extent to which low dose radiation from natural sources contributes to the risk of childhood cancer remains unclear. OBJECTIVES In a nationwide census-based cohort study, we investigated whether the incidence of childhood cancer was associated with background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays. METHODS Children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Censuses in 1990 and 2000 were included. The follow-up period lasted until 2008 and incident cancer cases were identified from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. A radiation model was used to predict dose rates from terrestrial and cosmic radiation at locations of residence. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between cancer risk and dose rates and cumulative dose since birth. RESULTS Among 2,093,660 children included at census, 1,782 incident cases of cancer were identified including 530 with leukemia, 328 with lymphoma, and 423 with a tumor of the central nervous system (CNS). Hazard ratios for each mSv increase in cumulative dose of external radiation were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) for any cancer, 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for leukemia, 1.01 (0.96, 1.05) for lymphoma, and 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for a range of potential confounders had little effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggests that background radiation may contribute to the risk of cancer in children including leukemia and CNS tumors.

16p11.2 600 kb Duplications confer risk for typical and atypical Rolandic epilepsy

Rolandic epilepsy (RE) is the most common idiopathic focal childhood epilepsy. Its molecular basis is largely unknown and a complex genetic etiology is assumed in the majority of affected individuals. The present study tested whether six large recurrent copy number variants at 1q21, 15q11.2, 15q13.3, 16p11.2, 16p13.11 and 22q11.2 previously associated with neurodevelopmental disorders also increase risk of RE. Our association analyses revealed a significant excess of the 600 kb genomic duplication at the 16p11.2 locus (chr16: 29.5-30.1 Mb) in 393 unrelated patients with typical (n = 339) and atypical (ARE; n = 54) RE compared with the prevalence in 65,046 European population controls (5/393 cases versus 32/65,046 controls; Fisher's exact test P = 2.83 × 10(-6), odds ratio = 26.2, 95% confidence interval: 7.9-68.2). In contrast, the 16p11.2 duplication was not detected in 1738 European epilepsy patients with either temporal lobe epilepsy (n = 330) and genetic generalized epilepsies (n = 1408), suggesting a selective enrichment of the 16p11.2 duplication in idiopathic focal childhood epilepsies (Fisher's exact test P = 2.1 × 10(-4)). In a subsequent screen among children carrying the 16p11.2 600 kb rearrangement we identified three patients with RE-spectrum epilepsies in 117 duplication carriers (2.6%) but none in 202 carriers of the reciprocal deletion. Our results suggest that the 16p11.2 duplication represents a significant genetic risk factor for typical and atypical RE.

Risk factors for patient-reported medical errors in eleven countries

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to identify common risk factors for patient-reported medical errors across countries. In country-level analyses, differences in risks associated with error between health care systems were investigated. The joint effects of risks on error-reporting probability were modelled for hypothetical patients with different health care utilization patterns. DESIGN Data from the Commonwealth Fund's 2010 lnternational Survey of the General Public's Views of their Health Care System's Performance in 11 Countries. SETTING Representative population samples of 11 countries were surveyed (total sample = 19,738 adults). Utilization of health care, coordination of care problems and reported errors were assessed. Regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors for patients' reports of medical, medication and laboratory errors across countries and in country-specific models. RESULTS Error was reported by 11.2% of patients but with marked differences between countries (range: 5.4-17.0%). Poor coordination of care was reported by 27.3%. The risk of patient-reported error was determined mainly by health care utilization: Emergency care (OR = 1.7, P < 0.001), hospitalization (OR = 1.6, P < 0.001) and the number of providers involved (OR three doctors = 2.0, P < 0.001) are important predictors. Poor care coordination is the single most important risk factor for reporting error (OR = 3.9, P < 0.001). Country-specific models yielded common and country-specific predictors for self-reported error. For high utilizers of care, the probability that errors are reported rises up to P = 0.68. CONCLUSIONS Safety remains a global challenge affecting many patients throughout the world. Large variability exists in the frequency of patient-reported error across countries. To learn from others' errors is not only essential within countries but may also prove a promising strategy internationally.

Impact of sepsis on risk of postoperative arterial and venous thromboses: large prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the impact of preoperative sepsis on risk of postoperative arterial and venous thromboses. DESIGN Prospective cohort study using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database of the American College of Surgeons (ACS-NSQIP). SETTING Inpatient and outpatient procedures in 374 hospitals of all types across the United States, 2005-12. PARTICIPANTS 2,305,380 adults who underwent surgical procedures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Arterial thrombosis (myocardial infarction or stroke) and venous thrombosis (deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) in the 30 days after surgery. RESULTS Among all surgical procedures, patients with preoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome or any sepsis had three times the odds of having an arterial or venous postoperative thrombosis (odds ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 3.0 to 3.1). The adjusted odds ratios were 2.7 (2.5 to 2.8) for arterial thrombosis and 3.3 (3.2 to 3.4) for venous thrombosis. The adjusted odds ratios for thrombosis were 2.5 (2.4 to 2.6) in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, 3.3 (3.1 to 3.4) in patients with sepsis, and 5.7 (5.4 to 6.1) in patients with severe sepsis, compared with patients without any systemic inflammation. In patients with preoperative sepsis, both emergency and elective surgical procedures had a twofold increased odds of thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS Preoperative sepsis represents an important independent risk factor for both arterial and venous thromboses. The risk of thrombosis increases with the severity of the inflammatory response and is higher in both emergent and elective surgical procedures. Suspicion of thrombosis should be higher in patients with sepsis who undergo surgery.

Reducing fall risk in the elderly: risk factors and fall prevention, a systematic review

Falls in the elderly are a major source of injury resulting in disability and hospitalization. They have a significant impact on individual basis (loss of quality of live, nursing home admissions) and social basis (healthcare costs). Even though falls in the elderly are common there are some well studied risk factors. Special emphasis should be put on sarcopenia/frailty, polypharmacy, multimorbidity, vitamin D status and home hazards. There are several well evaluated fall prevention approaches that either target a single fall risk factor or focus on multiple risk factors. It has to be kept in mind that not all fall prevention strategies are useful for all patients as for example dietary substitution of vitamin D is only recommended in people with increased risk for a vitamin D deficiency. Home hazard reduction strategies are more effective when combined with other fall prevention approaches such as for example exercise programs. In conclusion elderly patients should routinely be screened for relevant risk factors and if need an indiviudally targeted fall prevention program compiled.

Adiposity and cancer risk: new mechanistic insights from epidemiology

Excess body adiposity, commonly expressed as body mass index (BMI), is a risk factor for many common adult cancers. Over the past decade, epidemiological data have shown that adiposity-cancer risk associations are specific for gender, site, geographical population, histological subtype and molecular phenotype. The biological mechanisms underpinning these associations are incompletely understood but need to take account of the specificities observed in epidemiology to better inform future prevention strategies.

Immunodeficiency and the risk of cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia 2/3 and cervical cancer: A nested case-control study in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

HIV-infected women are at increased risk of cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) and invasive cervical cancer (ICC), but it has been difficult to disentangle the influences of heavy exposure to HPV infection, inadequate screening, and immunodeficiency. A case-control study including 364 CIN2/3 and 20 ICC cases matched to 1,147 controls was nested in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (1985-2013). CIN2/3 risk was significantly associated with low CD4+ cell counts, whether measured as nadir (odds ratio (OR) per 100-cell/μL decrease=1.15, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.22), or at CIN2/3 diagnosis (1.10, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.16). An association was evident even for nadir CD4+ 200-349 versus ≥350 cells/μL (OR=1.57, 95% CI: 1.09, 2.25). After adjustment for nadir CD4+, a protective effect of >2-year cART use was seen against CIN2/3 (OR versus never cART use=0.64, 95% CI: 0.42, 0.98). Despite low study power, similar associations were seen for ICC, notably with nadir CD4+ (OR for 50 versus >350 cells/μL= 11.10, 95% CI: 1.24, 100). HPV16-L1 antibodies were significantly associated with CIN2/3, but HPV16-E6 antibodies were nearly exclusively detected in ICC. In conclusion, worsening immunodeficiency, even at only moderately decreased CD4+ cell counts (200-349 CD4+ cells/μL), is a significant risk factor for CIN2/3 and cervical cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Guidance of treatment decisions in risk-adapted primary radiotherapy for prostate cancer using multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging: a single center experience.

BACKGROUND Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the prostate is considered to be the most precise noninvasive staging modality for localized prostate cancer. Multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) dynamic sequences have recently been shown to further increase the accuracy of staging relative to morphological imaging alone. Correct radiological staging, particularly the detection of extraprostatic disease extension, is of paramount importance for target volume definition and dose prescription in highly-conformal curative radiotherapy (RT); in addition, it may affect the risk-adapted duration of additional antihormonal therapy. The purpose of our study was to analyze the impact of mpMRI-based tumor staging in patients undergoing primary RT for prostate cancer. METHODS A total of 122 patients admitted for primary RT for prostate cancer were retrospectively analyzed regarding initial clinical and computed tomography-based staging in comparison with mpMRI staging. Both tumor stage shifts and overall risk group shifts, including prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and the Gleason score, were assessed. Potential risk factors for upstaging were tested in a multivariate analysis. Finally, the impact of mpMRI-based staging shift on prostate RT and antihormonal therapy was evaluated. RESULTS Overall, tumor stage shift occurred in 55.7% of patients after mpMRI. Upstaging was most prominent in patients showing high-risk serum PSA levels (73%), but was also substantial in patients presenting with low-risk PSA levels (50%) and low-risk Gleason scores (45.2%). Risk group changes occurred in 28.7% of the patients with consequent treatment adaptations regarding target volume delineation and duration of androgen deprivation therapy. High PSA levels were found to be a significant risk factor for tumor upstaging and newly diagnosed seminal vesicle infiltration assessed using mpMRI. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that mpMRI of the prostate leads to substantial tumor upstaging, and can considerably affect treatment decisions in all patient groups undergoing risk-adapted curative RT for prostate cancer.

Retrospective evaluation of all recorded horse race starts in Switzerland during a four-year period focusing on discipline specific risk factors for clinical events

REASONS FOR PERFORMING THE STUDY: Racetrack injuries are of welfare concern and prevention of injuries is an important goal in many racing jurisdictions. Over the years this has led to more detailed recording of clinical events on racecourses. However, risk factor analyses of clinical events at race meetings have never been reported for Switzerland OBJECTIVE: To identify discipline-specific factors that influence the occurrence of clinical events during race meetings with the ultimate aim to improve the monitoring and safety on racetracks in Switzerland and optimise racehorse welfare. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study of horse race data collected by the Swiss horse racing association. METHODS: All race starts (n = 17,670, including 6,198 flat, 1,257 obstacle and 10,215 trot race starts) recorded over a period of four years (2009-2012) were analysed in multivariable mixed effect logistic regression models including horse and racecourse related data. The models were designed to identify discipline specific factors influencing the occurrence of clinical events on racecourses in Switzerland. RESULTS: Factors influencing the risk of clinical events during races were different for each discipline. The risk of a clinical event in trot racing was lower for racing on a Porphyre-sand track than on grass tracks. Horses whose driver was also their trainer had an approximately two times higher risk for clinical events. In obstacle races, longer distances (2401-3300 m and 3301-5400 m respectively) had a protective effect compared to racing over shorter distances. In flat racing, five racecourses reported significantly less clinical events. In all three disciplines, finishing 8th place or later was associated with clinical events. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in management that aim to improve the safety and welfare of racehorses, such as racetrack adaptations, need to be individualised for each discipline.

Synchronous carotid and coronary bypass surgery using minimal extracorporeal circulation does not increase the risk of in-hospital stroke compared to isolated carotid endarterectomy under general anaesthesia

Gebiet: Chirurgie Abstract: Introduction: Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) could be approached in a combined or a staged fashion. Some crucial studies have shown no significant difference in peri-operative stroke and death rate in combined versus staged CEA/CABG. At present conventional extracorporeal circulation (CECC) is regarded as the gold standard for performing on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting. On contrary, the use of minimized extracorporeal circulation (MECC) for CABG diminishes hemodilution, blood-air contact, foreign surface contact and inflammatory response. At the same time, general anaesthesia (GA) is a potential risk factor for higher perioperative stroke rate after isolated CEA, not only for the ipsilateral but also for the contralateral side especially in case of contralateral high-grade stenosis or occlusion. The aim of the study was to analyze if synchronous CEA/CABG using MECC (CEA/CABG group) allows reducing the perioperative stroke risk to the level of isolated CEA performed under GA (CEA-GA group). – Methods: A retrospective analysis of all patients who underwent CEA at our institution between January 2005 and December 2012 was performed. We compared outcomes between all patients undergoing CEA/CABG to all isolated CEA-GA during the same time period. The CEA/CABG group was additionally compared to a reference group consisting of patients undergoing isolated CEA in local anaesthesia. Primary outcome was in-hospital stroke. – Results: A total of 367 CEAs were performed, from which 46 patients were excluded having either off-pump CABG or other cardiac surgery procedures than CABG combined with CEA. Out of 321 patients, 74 were in the CEA/CABG and 64 in the CEA-GA group. There was a significantly higher rate of symptomatic stenoses among patients in the CEA-GA group (p<0.002). Three (4.1%) strokes in the CEA/CABG group were registered, two ipsilateral (2.7%) and one contralateral (1.4%) to the operated side. In the CEA-GA group 2 ipsilateral strokes (3.1%) occurred. No difference was noticed between the groups (p=1.000). One patient with stroke in each group had a symptomatic stenosis preoperatively. – Conclusions: Outcome with regard to mortality and neurologic injury is very good in both -patients undergoing CEA alone as well as patients undergoing synchronous CEA and CABG using the MECC system. Although the CEA/CABG group showed slightly increased risk of stroke, it can be considered as combined treatment in particular clinical situations.

Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.

Alcoholic Cirrhosis Increases Risk for Autoimmune Diseases: A Nationwide Registry-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS Alcoholic cirrhosis is associated with hyperactivation and dysregulation of the immune system. In addition to its ability to increase risk for infections, it also may increase the risk for autoimmune diseases. We studied the incidence of autoimmune diseases among patients with alcoholic cirrhosis vs controls in Denmark. METHODS We collected data from nationwide health care registries to identify and follow up all citizens of Denmark diagnosed with alcoholic cirrhosis from 1977 through 2010. Each patient was matched with 5 random individuals from the population (controls) of the same sex and age. The incidence rates of various autoimmune diseases were compared between patients with cirrhosis and controls and adjusted for the number of hospitalizations in the previous year (a marker for the frequency of clinical examination). RESULTS Of the 24,679 patients diagnosed with alcoholic cirrhosis, 532 developed an autoimmune disease, yielding an overall increased adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) of 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-1.50). The strongest associations were with Addison's disease (aIRR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.04-5.85), inflammatory bowel disease (aIRR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.26-1.92), celiac disease (aIRR, 5.12; 95% CI, 2.58-10.16), pernicious anemia (aIRR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.50-3.68), and psoriasis (aIRR, 4.06; 95% CI, 3.32-4.97). There was no increase in the incidence rate for rheumatoid arthritis (aIRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.69-1.15); the incidence rate for polymyalgia rheumatica decreased in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis compared with controls (aIRR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.33-0.67). CONCLUSIONS Based on a nationwide cohort study of patients in Denmark, alcoholic cirrhosis is a risk factor for several autoimmune diseases.