Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Practical approach to the use of daylight photodynamic therapy with topical methyl aminolevulinate for actinic keratosis: a European consensus

INTRODUCTION Daylight-mediated photodynamic therapy has been shown to be an effective therapy for actinic keratoses (AKs) and a simple and tolerable treatment procedure in three randomized Scandinavian studies and two recent Phase III randomized controlled studies in Australia and Europe. OBJECTIVES To establish consensus recommendations for the use of daylight photodynamic therapy (DL-PDT) using topical methyl aminolaevulinate (MAL) in European patients with AKs. METHODS The DL-PDT consensus recommendations were developed on behalf of the European Society for Photodynamic Therapy in Dermatology and comprised of 10 dermatologists from different European countries with experience in how to treat AK patients with PDT. Consensus was developed based on literature review and experience of the experts in the treatment of AK using DL-PDT. RESULTS The recommendations arising from this panel of experts provide general guidance on the use of DL-PDT as a dermatological procedure with specific guidance regarding patient selection, therapeutic indications, when to treat, pre-treatment skin preparation, MAL application and daylight exposure for patients with AK in different countries of Europe. CONCLUSIONS This consensus recommendation provides a framework for physicians to perform DL-PDT with MAL cream while ensuring efficiency and safety in the treatment of patients with AK in different European countries.

Risk management at board level: a practical guide for board members

isk Management today has moved from being the topic of top level conferences and media discussions to being a permanent issue in the board and top management agenda. Several new directives and regulations in Switzerland, Germany and EU make it obligatory for the firms to have a risk management strategy and transparently disclose the risk management process to their stakeholders. Shareholders, insurance providers, banks, media, analysts, employees, suppliers and other stakeholders expect the board members to be pro-active in knowing the critical risks facing their organization and provide them with a reasonable assurance vis-à-vis the management of those risks. In this environment however, the lack of standards and training opportunities makes this task difficult for board members. This book with the help of real life examples, analysis of drivers, interpretation of the Swiss legal requirements, and information based on international benchmarks tries to reach out to the forward looking leaders of today's businesses. The authors have collectively brought their years of scientific and practical experience in risk management, Swiss law and board memberships together to provide the board members practical solutions in risk management. The desire is that this book will clear the fear regarding risk management from the minds of the company leadership and help them in making risk savvy decisions in quest to achieve their strategic objectives.