Cardiac biomarkers and clinical scores for risk stratification in elderly patients with non-high-risk pulmonary embolism.

OBJECTIVE To determine the prognostic accuracy of cardiac biomarkers alone and in combination with clinical scores in elderly patients with non-high-risk pulmonary embolism (PE). DESIGN Ancillary analysis of a Swiss multicentre prospective cohort study. SUBJECTS A total of 230 patients aged ≥65 years with non-high-risk PE. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The study end-point was a composite of PE-related complications, defined as PE-related death, recurrent venous thromboembolism or major bleeding during a follow-up of 30 days. The prognostic accuracy of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), the Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the precursor of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) was determined using sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, logistic regression and reclassification statistics. RESULTS The overall complication rate during follow-up was 8.7%. hs-cTnT achieved the highest prognostic accuracy [area under the ROC curve: 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63-0.86, P < 0.001). At the predefined cut-off values, the negative predictive values of the biomarkers were above 95%. For levels above the cut-off, the risk of complications increased fivefold for hs-cTnT [odds ratio (OR): 5.22, 95% CI: 1.49-18.25] and 14-fold for NT-proBNP (OR: 14.21, 95% CI: 1.73-116.93) after adjustment for both clinical scores and renal function. Reclassification statistics indicated that adding hs-cTnT to the GPS or the PESI significantly improved the prognostic accuracy of both clinical scores. CONCLUSION In elderly patients with nonmassive PE, NT-proBNP or hs-cTnT could be an adequate alternative to clinical scores for identifying low-risk individuals suitable for outpatient management.

Role of electrophysiological studies in predicting risk of ventricular arrhythmia in early repolarization syndrome.

BACKGROUND The early repolarization (ER) pattern is associated with an increased risk of arrhythmogenic sudden death. However, strategies for risk stratification of patients with the ER pattern are not fully defined. OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the role of electrophysiology studies (EPS) in risk stratification of patients with ER syndrome. METHODS In a multicenter study, 81 patients with ER syndrome (age 36 ± 13 years, 60 males) and aborted sudden death due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) were included. EPS were performed following the index VF episode using a standard protocol. Inducibility was defined by the provocation of sustained VF. Patients were followed up by serial implantable cardioverter-defibrillator interrogations. RESULTS Despite a recent history of aborted sudden death, VF was inducible in only 18 of 81 (22%) patients. During follow-up of 7.0 ± 4.9 years, 6 of 18 (33%) patients with inducible VF during EPS experienced VF recurrences, whereas 21 of 63 (33%) patients who were noninducible experienced recurrent VF (p = 0.93). VF storm occurred in 3 patients from the inducible VF group and in 4 patients in the noninducible group. VF inducibility was not associated with maximum J-wave amplitude (VF inducible vs. VF noninducible; 0.23 ± 0.11 mV vs. 0.21 ± 0.11 mV; p = 0.42) or J-wave distribution (inferior, odds ratio [OR]: 0.96 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.33 to 2.81]; p = 0.95; lateral, OR: 1.57 [95% CI: 0.35 to 7.04]; p = 0.56; inferior and lateral, OR: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.27 to 2.55]; p = 0.74), which have previously been demonstrated to predict outcome in patients with an ER pattern. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that current programmed stimulation protocols do not enhance risk stratification in ER syndrome.

Von Willebrand Factor Improves Risk Prediction in Addition to N-Terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Patients Referred to Coronary Angiography and Signs and Symptoms of Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represents a growing health burden associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. Consequently, risk prediction is of highest importance. Endothelial dysfunction has been recently shown to play an important role in the complex pathophysiology of HFpEF. We therefore aimed to assess von Willebrand factor (vWF), a marker of endothelial damage, as potential biomarker for risk assessment in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Concentrations of vWF were assessed in 457 patients with HFpEF enrolled as part of the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. All-cause mortality was observed in 40% of patients during a median follow-up time of 9.7 years. vWF significantly predicted mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) per increase of 1 SD of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.68; P<0.001) and remained a significant predictor after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), renal function, and frequent HFpEF-related comorbidities (adjusted HR per 1 SD, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.42; P=0.001). Most notably, vWF showed additional prognostic value beyond that achievable with NT-proBNP indicated by improvements in C-Statistic (vWF×NT-proBNP: 0.65 versus NT-proBNP: 0.63; P for comparison, 0.004) and category-free net reclassification index (37.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS vWF is an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with HFpEF, which is in line with endothelial dysfunction as potential mediator in the pathophysiology of HFpEF. In particular, combined assessment of vWF and NT-proBNP improved risk prediction in this vulnerable group of patients.

Hemoglobin, iron metabolism and angiographic coronary artery disease (The Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study).

BACKGROUND Anemia has been shown to be a risk factor for coronary artery disease and mortality. The involvement of body iron stores in the development of CAD remains controversial. So far, studies that examined hemoglobin and parameters of iron metabolism simultaneously do not exist. METHODS AND RESULTS Hemoglobin and iron status were determined in 1480 patients with stable angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) and in 682 individuals in whom CAD had been ruled out by angiography. The multivariate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for CAD in the lowest quartiles of hemoglobin and iron were 1.62 (95%CI: 1.22-2.16), and 2.05 (95%CI: 1.51-2.78), respectively compared to their highest gender-specific quartiles. The fully adjusted ORs for CAD in the lowest quartiles of transferrin saturation, ferritin (F) and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR)/log10F index were 1.69 (95%CI: 1.25-2.27), 1.98 (95%CI: 1.48-2.65), and 1.64 (95%CI: 1.23-2.18), respectively compared to their highest gender-specific quartiles. When adjusting in addition for iron and ferritin the OR for CAD in the lowest quartiles of hemoglobin was still 1.40 (95%CI: 1.04-1.90) compared to the highest gender-specific quartiles. Thus, the associations between either iron status or low hemoglobin and CAD appeared independent from each other. The sTfR was only marginally associated with angiographic CAD. CONCLUSIONS Both low hemoglobin and iron depletion are independently associated with angiographic CAD.

HDL Cholesterol, Apolipoproteins, and Cardiovascular Risk in Hemodialysis Patients.

High concentrations of HDL cholesterol are considered to indicate efficient reverse cholesterol transport and to protect from atherosclerosis. However, HDL has been suggested to be dysfunctional in ESRD. Hence, our main objective was to investigate the effect of HDL cholesterol on outcomes in maintenance hemodialysis patients with diabetes. Moreover, we investigated the associations between the major protein components of HDL (apoA1, apoA2, and apoC3) and end points. We performed an exploratory, post hoc analysis with 1255 participants (677 men and 578 women) of the German Diabetes Dialysis study. The mean age was 66.3 years and the mean body mass index was 28.0 kg/m(2). The primary end point was a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The secondary end point included all-cause mortality. The mean duration of follow-up was 3.9 years. A total of 31.3% of the study participants reached the primary end point and 49.1% died from any cause. HDL cholesterol and apoA1 and apoC3 quartiles were not related to end points. However, there was a trend toward an inverse association between apoA2 and all-cause mortality. The hazard ratio for death from any cause in the fourth quartile compared with the first quartile of apoA2 was 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.89). The lack of an association between HDL cholesterol and cardiovascular risk may support the concept of dysfunctional HDL in hemodialysis. The possible beneficial effect of apoA2 on survival requires confirmation in future studies.

Predicting prostate cancer-specific outcome after radical prostatectomy among men with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa: a multi-institutional outcome study of 266 patients

BACKGROUND The value of radical prostatectomy (RP) as an approach for very high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients is controversial. To examine the risk of 10-year cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM) according to clinical and pathological characteristics of very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa patients treated with RP as the primary treatment option. METHODS In a multi-institutional cohort, 266 patients with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa treated with RP were identified. All patients underwent RP and pelvic lymph-node dissection. Competing-risk analyses assessed 10-year CSM and OCM before and after stratification for age and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). RESULTS Overall, 34 (13%) patients died from PCa and 73 (28%) from OCM. Ten-year CSM and OCM rates ranged from 5.6% to 12.9% and from 10% to 38%, respectively. OCM was the leading cause of death in all subgroups. Age and comorbidities were the main determinants of OCM. In healthy men, CSM rate did not differ among age groups (10-year CSM rate for ⩽64, 65-69 and ⩾70 years: 16.2%, 11.5% and 17.1%, respectively). Men with a CCI ⩾1 showed a very low risk of CSM irrespective of age (10-year CSM: 5.6-6.1%), whereas the 10-year OCM rates increased with age up to 38% in men ⩾70 years. CONCLUSION Very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa represents a heterogeneous group. We revealed overall low CSM rates despite the highly unfavorable clinical disease. For healthy men, CSM was independent of age, supporting RP even for older men. Conversely, less healthy patients had the highest risk of dying from OCM while sharing very low risk of CSM, indicating that this group might not benefit from an aggressive surgical treatment. Outcome after RP as the primary treatment option in cT3b/4 PCa patients is related to age and comorbidity status.

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Metformin and the risk of head and neck cancer: a case-control analysis

AIMS Metformin use has been associated with a decreased risk of some cancers, although data on head and neck cancer (HNC) are scarce. We explored the relation between the use of antidiabetic drugs and the risk of HNC. METHODS We conducted a case-control analysis in the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) of people with incident HNC between 1995 and 2013 below the age of 90 years. Six controls per case were matched on age, sex, calendar time, general practice and number of years of active history in the CPRD prior to the index date. Other potential confounders including body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption and comorbidities were also evaluated. The final analyses were adjusted for BMI, smoking and diabetes mellitus (or diabetes duration in a sensitivity analysis). Results are presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Use of metformin was neither associated with a statistically significant altered risk of HNC overall (1-29 prescriptions: adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.61-1.24 and ≥ 30 prescriptions adjusted OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.53-1.22), nor was long-term use of sulphonylureas (adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.59-1.30), or any insulin use (adjusted OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.63-1.35). However, we found a (statistically non-significant) decreased risk of laryngeal cancer associated with long-term metformin use (adjusted OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.17-1.03). CONCLUSIONS In this population-based study, the use of antidiabetic drugs was not associated with a materially altered risk of HNC. Our data suggest a protective effect of long-term metformin use for laryngeal cancer.

Analysis of TNF-antagonist switch over time and associated risk factors in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Limited data from large cohorts are available on tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists (infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab pegol) switch over time. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of switching from one TNF antagonist to another and to identify associated risk factors. METHODS Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Cohort Study (SIBDCS) were analyzed. RESULTS Of 1731 patients included into the SIBDCS (956 with Crohn's disease [CD] and 775 with ulcerative colitis [UC]), 347 CD patients (36.3%) and 129 UC patients (16.6%) were treated with at least one TNF antagonist. A total of 53/347 (15.3%) CD patients (median disease duration 9 years) and 20/129 (15.5%) of UC patients (median disease duration 7 years) needed to switch to a second and/or a third TNF antagonist, respectively. Median treatment duration was longest for the first TNF antagonist used (CD 25 months; UC 14 months), followed by the second (CD 13 months; UC 4 months) and third TNF antagonist (CD 11 months; UC 15 months). Primary nonresponse, loss of response and side effects were the major reasons to stop and/or switch TNF antagonist therapy. A low body mass index, a short diagnostic delay and extraintestinal manifestations at inclusion were identified as risk factors for a switch of the first used TNF antagonist within 24 months of its use in CD patients. CONCLUSION Switching of the TNF antagonist over time is a common issue. The median treatment duration with a specific TNF antagonist is diminishing with an increasing number of TNF antagonists being used.

Increased ambulatory arterial stiffness index in obese children.

OBJECTIVE Altered arterial stiffness is a recognized risk factor of poor cardiovascular health. Ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI, defined as one minus the regression slope of diastolic on systolic blood pressure values derived from a 24 h arterial blood pressure monitoring, ABPM) is an upcoming and readily available marker of arterial stiffness. Our hypothesis was that AASI is increased in obese children compared to age- and gender matched healthy subjects. METHODS AASI was calculated from ABPM in 101 obese children (BMI ≥ 1.88 SDS according to age- and sex-specific BMI charts), 45% girls, median BMI SDS 2.8 (interquartile range (IQR) 2.5-3.4), median age 11.5 years (9.1-13.4) and compared with an age and gender matched healthy control group of 71 subjects with median BMI SDS 0.0 (-0.8-0.5). Multivariate regression analysis was applied to identify significant independent factors explaining AASI variability in this population. RESULTS AASI was significantly higher in obese children compared to controls (0.388 (0.254-0.499) versus 0.190 (0.070-0.320), p < 0.0001), but blood pressure values were similar. In a multivariate analysis including obese children only, AASI was independently predicted by 24-h systolic blood pressure SDS (p = 0.012); in a multivariate analysis including obese children and controls BMI SDS and pulse pressure independently influenced AASI (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS This study shows that AASI, a surrogate marker of arterial stiffness, is increased in obese children. AASI seems to be influenced by BMI and pulse pressure independently of systolic and diastolic blood pressure values, suggesting that other factors are involved in increased arterial stiffness in obese children.

Incidence and risk factors for early adjacent vertebral fractures after balloon kyphoplasty for osteoporotic fractures: analysis of the SWISSspine registry

PURPOSE The SWISSspine registry (SSR) was launched in 2005 to assess the safety and effectiveness of balloon kyphoplasty (BKP). In the meantime, repeated reports on high rates of adjacent vertebral fractures (ASF) after BKP of vertebral insufficiency fractures were published. The causes for ASF and their risk factors are still under debate. The purpose of this study was to report the incidence and potential risk factors of ASF within the SSR dataset. METHODS The SSR data points are collected perioperatively and during follow-ups, with surgeon- and patient-based information. All patients documented with a monosegmental osteoporotic vertebral insufficiency fracture between March 2005 and May 2012 were included in the study. The incidence of ASF, significant associations with co-variates (patient age, gender, fracture location, cement volume, preoperative segmental kyphosis, extent of kyphosis correction, and individual co-morbidities) and influence on quality of life (EQ-5D) and back pain (VAS) were analyzed. RESULTS A total of 375 patients with a mean follow-up of 3.6 months was included. ASF were found in 9.9 % (n = 37) and occurred on average 2.8 months postoperatively. Preoperative segmental kyphosis >30° (p = 0.026), and rheumatoid arthritis (p = 0.038) and cardiovascular disease (p = 0.047) were significantly associated with ASF. Furthermore, patients with ASF had significantly higher back pain at the final follow-up (p = 0.001). No further significant associations between the studied co-variates and ASF were seen in the adjusted analysis. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that patients with a preoperative segmental kyphosis >30° or patients with co-morbidities like rheumatoid arthritis and a cardiovascular disease are at high risk of ASF within 6 months after the index surgery. In case of an ASF event, back pain levels are significantly increased. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE IV.

Risk factors for potentially avoidable readmissions due to end-of-life care issues

BACKGROUND Repeated hospitalizations are frequent toward the end of life, where each admission should be an opportunity to initiate advance-care planning to high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE To identify the risk factors for having a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues among all medical patients. DESIGN Nested case-control study. SETTING/PATIENTS All 10,275 consecutive discharges from any medical service of an academic tertiary medical center in Boston, Massachusetts between July 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. MEASUREMENTS A random sample of all the potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions was independently reviewed by 9 trained physicians to identify the ones due to end-of-life issues. RESULTS Among 534, 30-day potentially avoidable readmission cases reviewed, 80 (15%) were due to an end-of-life care issue. In multivariable analysis, the following risk factors were significantly associated with a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues: number of admissions in the previous 12 months (odds ratio [OR]: 1.10 per admission, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.20), neoplasm (OR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.85-10.98), opiate medications at discharge (OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.29-4.07), Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR: 1.16 per 5-point increase, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22). The discrimination of the model (C statistic) was 0.85. CONCLUSIONS In a medical population, we identified 4 main risk factors that were significantly associated with 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues, producing a model with very good to excellent discrimination. Patients with these risk factors might benefit from palliative care consultation prior to discharge in order to improve end-of-life care and possibly reduce unnecessary rehospitalizations.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.

Adiposity and cancer risk: new mechanistic insights from epidemiology

Excess body adiposity, commonly expressed as body mass index (BMI), is a risk factor for many common adult cancers. Over the past decade, epidemiological data have shown that adiposity-cancer risk associations are specific for gender, site, geographical population, histological subtype and molecular phenotype. The biological mechanisms underpinning these associations are incompletely understood but need to take account of the specificities observed in epidemiology to better inform future prevention strategies.