Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for midlatitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m−2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m−2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

Effects of sources and meteorology on particulate matter in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An overview of the DAURE campaign

DAURE (Determination of the Sources of Atmospheric Aerosols in Urban and Rural Environments in the Western Mediterranean) was a multidisciplinary international field campaign aimed at investigating the sources and meteorological controls of particulate matter in the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). Measurements were simultaneously performed at an urban-coastal (Barcelona, BCN) and a rural-elevated (Montseny, MSY) site pair in NE Spain during winter and summer. State-of-the-art methods such as 14C analysis, proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometry, and high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometry were applied for the first time in the WMB as part of DAURE. WMB regional pollution episodes were associated with high concentrations of inorganic and organic species formed during the transport to inland areas and built up at regional scales. Winter pollutants accumulation depended on the degree of regional stagnation of an air mass under anticyclonic conditions and the planetary boundary layer height. In summer, regional recirculation and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOA) formation mainly determined the regional pollutant concentrations. The contribution from fossil sources to organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) and hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol concentrations were higher at BCN compared with MSY due to traffic emissions. The relative contribution of nonfossil OC was higher at MSY especially in summer due to biogenic emissions. The fossil OC/EC ratio at MSY was twice the corresponding ratio at BCN indicating that a substantial fraction of fossil OC was due to fossil SOA. In winter, BCN cooking emissions were identified as an important source of modern carbon in primary organic aerosol.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Effects of short- and long-term variations in RLS severity on perceived health status - the COR-study.

In a cohort study among 2751 members (71.5% females) of the German and Swiss RLS patient organizations changes in restless legs syndrome (RLS) severity over time was assessed and the impact on quality of life, sleep quality and depressive symptoms was analysed. A standard set of scales (RLS severity scale IRLS, SF-36, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) in mailed questionnaires was repeatedly used to assess RLS severity and health status over time and a 7-day diary once to assess short-term variations. A clinically relevant change of the RLS severity was defined by a change of at least 5 points on the IRLS scale. During 36 months follow-up minimal improvement of RLS severity between assessments was observed. Men consistently reported higher severity scores. RLS severity increased with age reaching a plateau in the age group 45-54 years. During 3 years 60.2% of the participants had no relevant (±5 points) change in RLS severity. RLS worsening was significantly related to an increase in depressive symptoms and a decrease in sleep quality and quality of life. The short-term variation showed distinctive circadian patterns with rhythm magnitudes strongly related to RLS severity. The majority of participants had a stable course of severe RLS over three years. An increase in RLS severity was accompanied by a small to moderate negative, a decrease by a small positive influence on quality of life, depressive symptoms and sleep quality.

The impact of smoking on HPV infection and the development of anogenital warts

PURPOSE: The worldwide prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is estimated at 9-13 %. Persistent infection can lead to the development of malignant and nonmalignant diseases. Low-risk HPV types are mostly associated with benign lesions such as anogenital warts. In the present systematic review, we examined the impact of smoking on HPV infection and the development of anogenital warts, respectively. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed using MEDLINE database for peer-reviewed articles published from January 01, 1985 to November 30, 2013. Pooled rates of HPV prevalence were compared using the χ (2) test. RESULTS: In both genders, smoking is associated with higher incidence and prevalence rates for HPV infection, whereas the latter responds to a dose-effect relationship. The overall HPV prevalence for smoking patients was 48.2 versus 37. 5 % for nonsmoking patients (p < 0.001) (odds ratio (OR) = 1.5, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.4-1.7). Smoking does also increase persistence rates for high-risk HPV infection, while this correlation is debatable for low-risk HPV. The incidence and recurrence rates of anogenital warts are significantly increased in smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Most current data demonstrate an association between smoking, increased anogenital HPV infection, and development of anogenital warts. These data add to the long list of reasons for making smoking cessation a keystone of patient health.