High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects

This review of late-Holocene palaeoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies derived from climate model runs, where the `answer' is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations. First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling should be concentrated.

On low-dimensional projections of high-dimensional distributions

Let P be a probability distribution on q -dimensional space. The so-called Diaconis-Freedman effect means that for a fixed dimension d<

Stochastic search for semiparametric linear regression models

This paper introduces and analyzes a stochastic search method for parameter estimation in linear regression models in the spirit of Beran and Millar [Ann. Statist. 15(3) (1987) 1131–1154]. The idea is to generate a random finite subset of a parameter space which will automatically contain points which are very close to an unknown true parameter. The motivation for this procedure comes from recent work of Dümbgen et al. [Ann. Statist. 39(2) (2011) 702–730] on regression models with log-concave error distributions.

Social Factors Associated with Readiness for Sexual Activity in Adolescents: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Various factors are associated with sexual activity in adolescence and it is important to identify those that promote healthy and adaptive romantic and sexual development. The objectives of this study were to describe rates of early sexual intercourse (before 16 years) and sexual readiness in adolescence and to assess the extent to which these were social patterned. We prospectively studied nearly 5,000 15-year-olds from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a UK birth cohort. Between 2006 and 2008, female and male participants answered a computer assisted interview about romantic and sexual behaviors in the last year. Predictors of sexual intercourse and readiness for sexual intercourse were examined across a range of sociodemographic measures. Overall, 17.7 % (95 % CI 16.7 %, 18.9 %) of participants reported having had sexual intercourse in the last year, with more girls than boys reporting sexual experience (risk ratio 1.30, 95 % CI 1.15, 1.47). Of these, one-third of both male and female were classed as unready because they were unwilling, lacking in autonomy, felt regret or had not used contraception. There was strong evidence of social patterning for sexual activity with higher rates for young people from poorer homes, with lower social class, and with younger, less educated mothers. In contrast, among 860 young people who had had sexual intercourse, there was no clear evidence of associations between social factors and sexual readiness. The lack of social patterning in sexual readiness supports the provision of comprehensive education to develop life skills for adolescents across all social groups.

Person-sensitive TAME marking in Galo: Historical origins and functional motivation

Scott DeLancey’s analysis of person-sensitive TAME marking in Lhasa Tibetan – “a.k.a. conjunct-disjunct marking” or “egophoricity” – has stimulated considerable discussion and debate, particularly as previously little-known languages of the Tibeto-Burman area, as well as outside it, have come to be described, and a wider range of functional factors have been taken into account. This chapter is intended as a contribution to this discussion, by presenting the first detailed analysis of person-sensitive TAME marking in a language of the Tani subgroup of Tibeto-Burman, namely Galo. Like Tournadre (2008), I find that person-sensitive TAME marking in Galo is not a grammaticalized index of person (“agreement”) nor of cross-clause subject continuity, but is instead a semantic index of an assertor’s knowledge state. Unlike in more westerly Tibeto-Burman languages, however, different construals of agency and/or volition do not seem to be factors in the Galo system. Thus, there are both similarities and differences underlying systems of person-sensitive TAME marking in different Tibeto-Burman languages; this suggests that further research - particularly, employing a diachronic perspective when possible - will be required before we can confidently characterize person-sensitive TAME marking from a pan-Tibeto-Burman (or broader) cross-linguistic perspective.

Maternal cholestasis during pregnancy programs metabolic disease in offspring

The intrauterine environment is a major contributor to increased rates of metabolic disease in adults. Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) is a liver disease of pregnancy that affects 0.5%-2% of pregnant women and is characterized by increased bile acid levels in the maternal serum. The influence of ICP on the metabolic health of offspring is unknown. We analyzed the Northern Finland birth cohort 1985-1986 database and found that 16-year-old children of mothers with ICP had altered lipid profiles. Males had increased BMI, and females exhibited increased waist and hip girth compared with the offspring of uncomplicated pregnancies. We further investigated the effect of maternal cholestasis on the metabolism of adult offspring in the mouse. Females from cholestatic mothers developed a severe obese, diabetic phenotype with hepatosteatosis following a Western diet, whereas matched mice not exposed to cholestasis in utero did not. Female littermates were susceptible to metabolic disease before dietary challenge. Human and mouse studies showed an accumulation of lipids in the fetoplacental unit and increased transplacental cholesterol transport in cholestatic pregnancy. We believe this is the first report showing that cholestatic pregnancy in the absence of altered maternal BMI or diabetes can program metabolic disease in the offspring.

Health-related quality of life in rural children living in four European countries: the GABRIEL study

OBJECTIVE Measuring children's health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is of growing importance given increasing chronic diseases. By integrating HRQOL questions into the European GABRIEL study, we assessed differences in HRQOL between rural farm and non-farm children from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Poland to relate it to common childhood health problems and to compare it to a representative, mostly urban German population sample (KIGGS). METHODS The parents of 10,400 school-aged children answered comprehensive questionnaires including health-related questions and the KINDL-R questions assessing HRQOL. RESULTS Austrian children reported highest KINDL-R scores (mean: 80.9; 95 % CI [80.4, 81.4]) and Polish children the lowest (74.5; [73.9, 75.0]). Farm children reported higher KINDL-R scores than non-farm children (p = 0.002). Significantly lower scores were observed in children with allergic diseases (p < 0.001), with sleeping difficulties (p < 0.001) and in overweight children (p = 0.04). The German GABRIEL sample reported higher mean scores (age 7-10 years: 80.1, [79.9, 80.4]; age 11-13 years: 77.1, [74.9, 79.2]) compared to the urban KIGGS study (age 7-10 years: 79.0, [78.7-79.3]; age 11-13 years: 75.1 [74.6-75.6]). Socio-demographic or health-related factors could not explain differences in HRQOL between countries. CONCLUSIONS Future increases in chronic diseases may negatively impact children's HRQOL.