Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Changing ecology of Lake Victoria cichlids and their environment: evidence from C13 and N15 analyses

Eutrophication is an increasing global threat to freshwater ecosystems. East Africa’s Lake Victoria has suffered from severe eutrophication in the past decades which is partly responsible for the dramatic decline in haplochromine cichlid species diversity. However, some zooplanktivorous and detritivorous haplochromine species recovered and shifted their diet towards macro invertebrates and fish. We used four formalin preserved cichlid species caught over the past 35 years to investigate whether stable isotopes of these fish are reflecting the dietary changes, habitat differences and if these isotopes can be used as indicators of eutrophication. We found that d15N signatures mainly reflected dietary shifts to larger prey in all four haplochromine species. Shifts in d13C signatures likely represented habitat differences and dietary changes. In addition, a shift to remarkably heavy d13C signatures in 2011 was found for all four species which might infer increased primary production and thus eutrophication although more research is needed to confirm this hypothesis. The observed temporal changes confirm previous findings that preserved specimens can be used to trace historical changes in fish ecology and the aquatic environment. This highlights the need for continued sampling as this information could be of essence for reconstructing and predicting the effects of environmental changes.