Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

Toward One Health: are public health stakeholders aware of the field of animal health?

Motivated by the perception that human and veterinary medicines can cooperate in more ways than just fighting zoonoses, the authors organized a roundtable during the 2013 annual meeting of the International Society for Disease Surveillance (ISDS). Collaborations between human and animal health sectors were reported to often rise in response to zoonotic outbreaks (during crisis time) and be mainly based on personal networks. Ways to maintain and strengthen these links were discussed.

Placental Uric Acid Transport System: Glucose Transporter 9 (SLC2A9)

Placental Uric Acid Transport System: Glucose Transporter 9 (SLC2A9). INTRODUCTION: Pre-eclampsia, a pregnancy-specific disease, contributes substantially to perinatal morbidity and mortality of both the mother and her child. Pre-eclampsia is often associated with high maternal urate serum levels, which in turn has been shown to play a role in the pathogenesis of this disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the glucose transporter GLUT9-mediated placental uric acid transport system. METHODS: In this study western blot, immunofluorescence techniques as well as a transepithelial transport (Transwell) model were used to assess GLUT9 protein expression and, respectively, uric acid transport activity. Electrophysiological techniques and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were used to characterize the properties and the structure of GLUT9. RESULTS: Uric acid is transported across a BeWo choriocarcinoma cell monolayer with 530 pmol/min. We could successfully overexpress and for the first time purify the GLUT9b isoform using the Xenopus laevis oocytes expression system. Chloride seems to modulate the urate transport system. TEM revealed that GLUT9b isoform is present as monomer and dimmer in the Xenopus laevis overexpression model. A class average of all the particles allowed us to develop a first model of human GLUT9b structure, which was derived from the published crystal structure of the bacterial homologue of GLUT1-4. CONCLUSIONS: In vitro the “materno-fetal” transport of uric acid is slow indicating that in vivo the fetus might be protected from short-term fluctuations of maternal urate serum levels. The low-resolution structure obtained from TEM validates the proposed homology model regarding the structure of human GLUT9b. In ongoing studies this model is used to perform virtual screening to identify novel modulators of the urate transport system enabling the development of novel therapies in pregnancy complications.

Marinesco-Sjögren syndrome protein SIL1 regulates motor neuron subtype-selective ER stress in ALS.

Mechanisms underlying motor neuron subtype-selective endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress and associated axonal pathology in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) remain unclear. Here we show that the molecular environment of the ER between motor neuron subtypes is distinct, with characteristic signatures. We identify cochaperone SIL1, mutated in Marinesco-Sjögren syndrome (MSS), as being robustly expressed in disease-resistant slow motor neurons but not in ER stress-prone fast-fatigable motor neurons. In a mouse model of MSS, we demonstrate impaired ER homeostasis in motor neurons in response to loss of SIL1 function. Loss of a single functional Sil1 allele in an ALS mouse model (SOD1-G93A) enhanced ER stress and exacerbated ALS pathology. In SOD1-G93A mice, SIL1 levels were progressively and selectively reduced in vulnerable fast-fatigable motor neurons. Mechanistically, reduction in SIL1 levels was associated with lowered excitability of fast-fatigable motor neurons, further influencing expression of specific ER chaperones. Adeno-associated virus-mediated delivery of SIL1 to familial ALS motor neurons restored ER homeostasis, delayed muscle denervation and prolonged survival.

Advances in understanding energy consumption behavior and the governance of its change - Outline of an integrated framework

Transforming today’s energy systems in industrialized countries requires a substantial reduction of the total energy consumption at the individual level. Selected instruments have been found to be effective in changing people’s behavior in single domains. However, the so far weak success story on reducing overall energy consumption indicates that our understanding of the determining factors of individual energy consumption as well as of its change is far from being conclusive. Among others, the scientific state of the art is dominated by analyzing single domains of consumption and by neglecting embodied energy. It also displays strong disciplinary splits and the literature often fails to distinguish between explaining behavior and explaining change of behavior. Moreover, there are knowledge gaps regarding the legitimacy and effectiveness of the governance of individual consumption behavior and its change. Against this backdrop, the aim of this paper is to establish an integrated interdisciplinary framework that offers a systematic basis for linking the different aspects in research on energy related consumption behavior, thus paving the way for establishing a better evidence base to inform societal actions. The framework connects the three relevant analytical aspects of the topic in question: (1) It systematically and conceptually frames the objects, i.e. the energy consumption behavior and its change (explananda); (2) it structures the factors that potentially explain the energy consumption behavior and its change (explanantia); (3) it provides a differentiated understanding of change inducing interventions in terms of governance. Based on the existing states of the art approaches from different disciplines within the social sciences the proposed framework is supposed to guide interdisciplinary empirical research.

Mandatory communication skills training for oncologists: enforcement does not substantially impact satisfaction.

PURPOSE Even though there is evidence that both patients and oncology clinicians are affected by the quality of communication and that communication skills can be effectively trained, so-called Communication Skills Trainings (CSTs) remain heterogeneously implemented. METHODS A systematic evaluation of the level of satisfaction of oncologists with the Swiss CST before (2000-2005) and after (2006-2012) it became mandatory. RESULTS Levels of satisfaction with the CST were high, and satisfaction of physicians participating on a voluntary or mandatory basis did not significantly differ for the majority of the items. CONCLUSIONS The evaluation of physicians' satisfaction over the years and after introduction of mandatory training supports recommendations for generalized implementation of CST and mandatory training for medical oncologists.

The Neuropsychological Assessment of Cognitive Deficits Considering Measures of Performance Variability

Neuropsychologists often face interpretational difficulties when assessing cognitive deficits, particularly in cases of unclear cerebral etiology. How can we be sure whether a single test score below the population average is indicative of a pathological brain condition or normal? In the past few years, the topic of intra-individual performance variability has gained great interest. On the basis of a large normative sample, two measures of performance variability and their importance for neuropsychological interpretation will be presented in this paper: the number of low scores and the level of dispersion.We conclude that low scores are common in healthy individuals. On the other hand, the level of dispersion is relatively small. Here, base rate information about abnormally low scores and abnormally high dispersion across cognitive abilities are providedto improve the awareness of normal variability and to serve clinicians as additional interpretive measures in the diagnostic process.