Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

The edge vascular response following implantation of the Absorb everolimus-eluting bioresorbable vascular scaffold and the XIENCE V metallic everolimus-eluting stent. First serial follow-up assessment at six months and two years: insights from the first-in-man ABSORB Cohort B and SPIRIT II trials

AIMS To assess serially the edge vascular response (EVR) of a bioresorbable vascular scaffold (BVS) compared to a metallic everolimus-eluting stent (EES). METHODS AND RESULTS Non-serial evaluations of the Absorb BVS at one year have previously demonstrated proximal edge constrictive remodelling and distal edge changes in plaque composition with increase of the percent fibro-fatty (FF) tissue component. The 5 mm proximal and distal segments adjacent to the implanted devices were investigated serially with intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), post procedure, at six months and at two years, from the ABSORB Cohort B1 (n=45) and the SPIRIT II (n=113) trials. Twenty-two proximal and twenty-four distal edge segments were available for analysis in the ABSORB Cohort B1 trial. In the SPIRIT II trial, thirty-three proximal and forty-six distal edge segments were analysed. At the 5-mm proximal edge, the vessels treated with an Absorb BVS from post procedure to two years demonstrated a lumen loss (LL) of 6.68% (-17.33; 2.08) (p=0.027) with a trend toward plaque area increase of 7.55% (-4.68; 27.11) (p=0.06). At the 5-mm distal edge no major changes were evident at either time point. At the 5-mm proximal edge the vessels treated with a XIENCE V EES from post procedure to two years did not show any signs of LL, only plaque area decrease of 6.90% (-17.86; 4.23) (p=0.035). At the distal edge no major changes were evident with regard to either lumen area or vessel remodelling at the same time point. CONCLUSIONS The IVUS-based serial evaluation of the EVR up to two years following implantation of a bioresorbable everolimus-eluting scaffold shows a statistically significant proximal edge LL; however, this finding did not seem to have any clinical implications in the serial assessment. The upcoming imaging follow-up of the Absorb BVS at three years is anticipated to provide further information regarding the vessel wall behaviour at the edges.

Clinical outcome of patients with and without diabetes mellitus after percutaneous coronary intervention with the resolute zotarolimus-eluting stent: 2-year results from the prospectively pooled analysis of the international global RESOLUTE program

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to describe the process to obtain Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for the expanded indication for treatment with the Resolute zotarolimus-eluting stent (R-ZES) (Medtronic, Inc., Santa Rosa, California) in patients with coronary artery disease and diabetes. BACKGROUND The R-ZES is the first drug-eluting stent specifically indicated in the United States for percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with diabetes. METHODS We pooled patient-level data for 5,130 patients from the RESOLUTE Global Clinical Program. A performance goal prospectively determined in conjunction with the FDA was established as a rate of target vessel failure at 12 months of 14.5%. In addition to the FDA pre-specified cohort of less complex patients with diabetes (n = 878), we evaluated outcomes of the R-ZES in all 1,535 patients with diabetes compared with all 3,595 patients without diabetes at 2 years. RESULTS The 12-month rate of target vessel failure in the pre-specified diabetic cohort was 7.8% (upper 95% confidence interval: 9.51%), significantly lower than the performance goal of 14.5% (p < 0.001). After 2 years, the cumulative incidence of target lesion failure in patients with noninsulin-treated diabetes was comparable to that of patients without diabetes (8.0% vs. 7.1%). The higher risk insulin-treated population demonstrated a significantly higher target lesion failure rate (13.7%). In the whole population, including complex patients, rates of stent thrombosis were not significantly different between patients with and without diabetes (1.2% vs. 0.8%). CONCLUSIONS The R-ZES is safe and effective in patients with diabetes. Long-term clinical data of patients with noninsulin-treated diabetes are equivalent to patients without diabetes. Patients with insulin-treated diabetes remain a higher risk subset. (The Medtronic RESOLUTE Clinical Trial; NCT00248079; Randomized, Two-arm, Non-inferiority Study Comparing Endeavor-Resolute Stent With Abbot Xience-V Stent [RESOLUTE-AC]; NCT00617084; The Medtronic RESOLUTE US Clinical Trial (R-US); NCT00726453; RESOLUTE International Registry: Evaluation of the Resolute Zotarolimus-Eluting Stent System in a 'Real-World' Patient Population [R-Int]; NCT00752128; RESOLUTE Japan-The Clinical Evaluation of the MDT-4107 Drug-Eluting Coronary Stent [RJ]; NCT00927940).

Clinical and intravascular imaging outcomes at 1 and 2 years after implantation of absorb everolimus eluting bioresorbable vascular scaffolds in small vessels. Late lumen enlargement: does bioresorption matter with small vessel size? Insight from the ABSORB cohort B trial

BACKGROUND The long-term results after second generation everolimus eluting bioresorbable vascular scaffold (Absorb BVS) placement in small vessels are unknown. Therefore, we investigated the impact of vessel size on long-term outcomes, after Absorb BVS implantation. METHODS In ABSORB Cohort B Trial, out of the total study population (101 patients), 45 patients were assigned to undergo 6-month and 2-year angiographic follow-up (Cohort B1) and 56 patients to have angiographic follow-up at 1-year (Cohort B2). The pre-reference vessel diameter (RVD) was <2.5 mm (small-vessel group) in 41 patients (41 lesions) and ≥2.5 mm (large-vessel group) in 60 patients (61 lesions). Outcomes were compared according to pre-RVD. RESULTS At 2-year angiographic follow-up no differences in late lumen loss (0.29±0.16 mm vs 0.25±0.22 mm, p=0.4391), and in-segment binary restenosis (5.3% vs 5.3% p=1.0000) were demonstrated between groups. In the small-vessel group, intravascular ultrasound analysis showed a significant increase in vessel area (12.25±3.47 mm(2) vs 13.09±3.38 mm(2) p=0.0015), scaffold area (5.76±0.96 mm(2) vs 6.41±1.30 mm(2) p=0.0008) and lumen area (5.71±0.98 mm(2) vs 6.20±1.27 mm(2) p=0.0155) between 6-months and 2-year follow-up. No differences in plaque composition were reported between groups at either time point. At 2-year clinical follow-up, no differences in ischaemia-driven major adverse cardiac events (7.3% vs 10.2%, p=0.7335), myocardial infarction (4.9% vs 1.7%, p=0.5662) or ischaemia-driven target lesion revascularisation (2.4% vs 8.5%, p=0.3962) were reported between small and large vessels. No deaths or scaffold thrombosis were observed. CONCLUSIONS Similar clinical and angiographic outcomes at 2-year follow-up were reported in small and large vessel groups. A significant late lumen enlargement and positive vessel remodelling were observed in small vessels.

Preterm birth, infant weight gain, and childhood asthma risk: A meta-analysis of 147,000 European children

BACKGROUND Preterm birth, low birth weight, and infant catch-up growth seem associated with an increased risk of respiratory diseases in later life, but individual studies showed conflicting results. OBJECTIVES We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis for 147,252 children of 31 birth cohort studies to determine the associations of birth and infant growth characteristics with the risks of preschool wheezing (1-4 years) and school-age asthma (5-10 years). METHODS First, we performed an adjusted 1-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the combined associations of gestational age, birth weight, and infant weight gain with childhood asthma. Second, we performed an adjusted 2-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the associations of preterm birth (gestational age <37 weeks) and low birth weight (<2500 g) with childhood asthma outcomes. RESULTS Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were independently associated with higher risks of preschool wheezing and school-age asthma (P < .05). The inverse associations of birth weight with childhood asthma were explained by gestational age at birth. Compared with term-born children with normal infant weight gain, we observed the highest risks of school-age asthma in children born preterm with high infant weight gain (odds ratio [OR], 4.47; 95% CI, 2.58-7.76). Preterm birth was positively associated with an increased risk of preschool wheezing (pooled odds ratio [pOR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.25-1.43) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67) independent of birth weight. Weaker effect estimates were observed for the associations of low birth weight adjusted for gestational age at birth with preschool wheezing (pOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.21) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27). CONCLUSION Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were associated with childhood asthma outcomes. The associations of lower birth weight with childhood asthma were largely explained by gestational age at birth.

Spectrum and prevalence of mutations involving BrS1- through BrS12-susceptibility genes in a cohort of unrelated patients referred for Brugada syndrome genetic testing: implications for genetic testing

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to provide the spectrum and prevalence of mutations in the 12 Brugada syndrome (BrS)-susceptibility genes discovered to date in a single large cohort of unrelated BrS patients. BACKGROUND BrS is a potentially lethal heritable arrhythmia syndrome diagnosed electrocardiographically by coved-type ST-segment elevation in the right precordial leads (V1 to V3; type 1 Brugada electrocardiographic [ECG] pattern) and the presence of a personal/family history of cardiac events. METHODS Using polymerase chain reaction, denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography, and DNA sequencing, comprehensive mutational analysis of BrS1- through BrS12-susceptibility genes was performed in 129 unrelated patients with possible/probable BrS (46 with clinically diagnosed BrS [ECG pattern plus personal/family history of a cardiac event] and 83 with a type 1 BrS ECG pattern only). RESULTS Overall, 27 patients (21%) had a putative pathogenic mutation, absent in 1,400 Caucasian reference alleles, including 21 patients with an SCN5A mutation, 2 with a CACNB2B mutation, and 1 each with a KCNJ8 mutation, a KCND3 mutation, an SCN1Bb mutation, and an HCN4 mutation. The overall mutation yield was 23% in the type 1 BrS ECG pattern-only patients versus 17% in the clinically diagnosed BrS patients and was significantly greater among young men<20 years of age with clinically diagnosed BrS and among patients who had a prolonged PQ interval. CONCLUSIONS We identified putative pathogenic mutations in ∼20% of our BrS cohort, with BrS genes 2 through 12 accounting for <5%. Importantly, the yield was similar between patients with only a type 1 BrS ECG pattern and those with clinically established BrS. The yield approaches 40% for SCN5A-mediated BrS (BrS1) when the PQ interval exceeds 200 ms. Calcium channel-mediated BrS is extremely unlikely in the absence of a short QT interval.

The RYR2-encoded ryanodine receptor/calcium release channel in patients diagnosed previously with either catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia or genotype negative, exercise-induced long QT syndrome: a comprehensive open reading frame mutational analysis.

OBJECTIVES This study was undertaken to determine the spectrum and prevalence of mutations in the RYR2-encoded cardiac ryanodine receptor in cases with exertional syncope and normal corrected QT interval (QTc). BACKGROUND Mutations in RYR2 cause type 1 catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT1), a cardiac channelopathy with increased propensity for lethal ventricular dysrhythmias. Most RYR2 mutational analyses target 3 canonical domains encoded by <40% of the translated exons. The extent of CPVT1-associated mutations localizing outside of these domains remains unknown as RYR2 has not been examined comprehensively in most patient cohorts. METHODS Mutational analysis of all RYR2 exons was performed using polymerase chain reaction, high-performance liquid chromatography, and deoxyribonucleic acid sequencing on 155 unrelated patients (49% females, 96% Caucasian, age at diagnosis 20 +/- 15 years, mean QTc 428 +/- 29 ms), with either clinical diagnosis of CPVT (n = 110) or an initial diagnosis of exercise-induced long QT syndrome but with QTc <480 ms and a subsequent negative long QT syndrome genetic test (n = 45). RESULTS Sixty-three (34 novel) possible CPVT1-associated mutations, absent in 400 reference alleles, were detected in 73 unrelated patients (47%). Thirteen new mutation-containing exons were identified. Two-thirds of the CPVT1-positive patients had mutations that localized to 1 of 16 exons. CONCLUSIONS Possible CPVT1 mutations in RYR2 were identified in nearly one-half of this cohort; 45 of the 105 translated exons are now known to host possible mutations. Considering that approximately 65% of CPVT1-positive cases would be discovered by selective analysis of 16 exons, a tiered targeting strategy for CPVT genetic testing should be considered.

Obesity and overweight as a risk factor for pneumonia in polytrauma patients: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Obesity is a growing problem in western societies. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to determine the association between the overweight and obese polytrauma patients and pneumonia after injury. METHODS A total of 628 patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 16 or greater and 16 years or older were included in this retrospective study. The sample was subdivided into three groups as follows: body mass index (BMI) of less than 25 kg/m2; BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 30 kg/m2; and BMI more than 30 kg/m2. The Murray score was assessed at admission and at its maximum during hospitalization to determine pulmonary problems. Pneumonia was defined as bacteriologically positive sputum with appropriate radiologic and laboratory changes (C-reactive protein and interleukin 6). Data are given as mean ± SEM. One-way analysis of variance and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used for the analyses, and the significance level was set at p < 0.05; Bonferroni-Dunn test was performed as post hoc analysis. RESULTS The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score for the thorax was 3.2 ± 0.1 in the group with a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2, 3.3 ± 0.1 in the group with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 30 kg/m2, and 2.8 ± 0.2 in the group with BMI of more than 30 kg/m2 (p = 0.044). The Murray score at admission was elevated with increasing BMI (0.8 ± 0.8 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 0.9 ± 0.9 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.0 ± 0.8 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p = 0.137); the maximum Murray score during hospitalization revealed significant differences (1.2 ± 0.9 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 1.6 ± 1.0 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.5 ± 0.9 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.001). The incidence of pneumonia also increased with increasing BMI (1.6% for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 2.0% for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 3.1% for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p = 0.044). CONCLUSION Obesity leads to an increased incidence of pneumonia in a polytrauma situation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic/epidemiologic study, level IV.

Fluid intake and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney function: a population-based longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND Drinking eight glasses of fluid or water each day is widely believed to improve health, but evidence is sparse and conflicting. We aimed to investigate the association between fluid consumption and long-term mortality and kidney function. METHODS We conducted a longitudinal analysis within a prospective, population-based cohort study of 3858 men and women aged 49 years or older residing in Australia. Daily fluid intake from food and beverages not including water was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. We did multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and a boot-strapping procedure for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS Upper and lower quartiles of daily fluid intake corresponded to >3 L and <2 L, respectively. During a median follow-up of 13.1 years (total 43 093 years at risk), 1127 deaths (26.1 per 1000 years at risk) including 580 cardiovascular deaths (13.5 per 1000 years at risk) occurred. Daily fluid intake (per 250 mL increase) was not associated with all-cause [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-1.01)] or cardiovascular mortality [HR 0.98 (95% CI 0.95-1.01)]. Overall, eGFR reduced by 2.2 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (SD 10.9) in the 1207 (31%) participants who had repeat creatinine measurements and this was not associated with fluid intake [adjusted regression coefficient 0.06 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per 250 mL increase (95% CI -0.03 to 0.14)]. CONCLUSIONS Fluid intake from food and beverages excluding water is not associated with improved kidney function or reduced mortality.

Chronic NSAID use and long-term decline of renal function in a prospective rheumatoid arthritis cohort study

OBJECTIVES Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may cause kidney damage. This study assessed the impact of prolonged NSAID exposure on renal function in a large rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patient cohort. METHODS Renal function was prospectively followed between 1996 and 2007 in 4101 RA patients with multilevel mixed models for longitudinal data over a mean period of 3.2 years. Among the 2739 'NSAID users' were 1290 patients treated with cyclooxygenase type 2 selective NSAIDs, while 1362 subjects were 'NSAID naive'. Primary outcome was the estimated glomerular filtration rate according to the Cockroft-Gault formula (eGFRCG), and secondary the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula equations and serum creatinine concentrations. In sensitivity analyses, NSAID dosing effects were compared for patients with NSAID registration in ≤/>50%, ≤/>80% or ≤/>90% of assessments. FINDINGS In patients with baseline eGFRCG >30 mL/min, eGFRCG evolved without significant differences over time between 'NSAID users' (mean change in eGFRCG -0.87 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.15 to -0.59) and 'NSAID naive' (-0.67 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.26 to -0.09, p=0.63). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted for significant confounders age, sex, body mass index, arterial hypertension, heart disease and for other insignificant factors, NSAIDs were an independent predictor for accelerated renal function decline only in patients with advanced baseline renal impairment (eGFRCG <30 mL/min). Analyses with secondary outcomes and sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS NSAIDs had no negative impact on renal function estimates but in patients with advanced renal impairment.

Genome-wide analysis in German shepherd dogs reveals association of a locus on CFA 27 with atopic dermatitis

Humans and dogs are both affected by the allergic skin disease atopic dermatitis (AD), caused by an interaction between genetic and environmental factors. The German shepherd dog (GSD) is a high-risk breed for canine AD (CAD). In this study, we used a Swedish cohort of GSDs as a model for human AD. Serum IgA levels are known to be lower in GSDs compared to other breeds. We detected significantly lower IgA levels in the CAD cases compared to controls (p = 1.1 × 10(-5)) in our study population. We also detected a separation within the GSD cohort, where dogs could be grouped into two different subpopulations. Disease prevalence differed significantly between the subpopulations contributing to population stratification (λ = 1.3), which was successfully corrected for using a mixed model approach. A genome-wide association analysis of CAD was performed (n cases = 91, n controls = 88). IgA levels were included in the model, due to the high correlation between CAD and low IgA levels. In addition, we detected a correlation between IgA levels and the age at the time of sampling (corr = 0.42, p = 3.0 × 10(-9)), thus age was included in the model. A genome-wide significant association was detected on chromosome 27 (praw = 3.1 × 10(-7), pgenome = 0.03). The total associated region was defined as a ~1.5-Mb-long haplotype including eight genes. Through targeted re-sequencing and additional genotyping of a subset of identified SNPs, we defined 11 smaller haplotype blocks within the associated region. Two blocks showed the strongest association to CAD. The ~209-kb region, defined by the two blocks, harbors only the PKP2 gene, encoding Plakophilin 2 expressed in the desmosomes and important for skin structure. Our results may yield further insight into the genetics behind both canine and human AD.

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

Congenital proprotein convertase 1/3 deficiency causes malabsorptive diarrhea and other endocrinopathies in a pediatric cohort

BACKGROUND & AIMS Proprotein convertase 1/3 (PC1/3) deficiency, an autosomal-recessive disorder caused by rare mutations in the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 1 (PCSK1) gene, has been associated with obesity, severe malabsorptive diarrhea, and certain endocrine abnormalities. Common variants in PCSK1 also have been associated with obesity in heterozygotes in several population-based studies. PC1/3 is an endoprotease that processes many prohormones expressed in endocrine and neuronal cells. We investigated clinical and molecular features of PC1/3 deficiency. METHODS We studied the clinical features of 13 children with PC1/3 deficiency and performed sequence analysis of PCSK1. We measured enzymatic activity of recombinant PC1/3 proteins. RESULTS We identified a pattern of endocrinopathies that develop in an age-dependent manner. Eight of the mutations had severe biochemical consequences in vitro. Neonates had severe malabsorptive diarrhea and failure to thrive, required prolonged parenteral nutrition support, and had high mortality. Additional endocrine abnormalities developed as the disease progressed, including diabetes insipidus, growth hormone deficiency, primary hypogonadism, adrenal insufficiency, and hypothyroidism. We identified growth hormone deficiency, central diabetes insipidus, and male hypogonadism as new features of PCSK1 insufficiency. Interestingly, despite early growth abnormalities, moderate obesity, associated with severe polyphagia, generally appears. CONCLUSIONS In a study of 13 children with PC1/3 deficiency caused by disruption of PCSK1, failure of enteroendocrine cells to produce functional hormones resulted in generalized malabsorption. These findings indicate that PC1/3 is involved in the processing of one or more enteric hormones that are required for nutrient absorption.

Exposure to Radio-Frequency Electromagnetic Fields From Broadcast Transmitters and Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-based Cohort Study

We investigated the association between exposure to radio-frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs) from broadcast transmitters and childhood cancer. First, we conducted a time-to-event analysis including children under age 16 years living in Switzerland on December 5, 2000. Follow-up lasted until December 31, 2008. Second, all children living in Switzerland for some time between 1985 and 2008 were included in an incidence density cohort. RF-EMF exposure from broadcast transmitters was modeled. Based on 997 cancer cases, adjusted hazard ratios in the time-to-event analysis for the highest exposure category (>0.2 V/m) as compared with the reference category (<0.05 V/m) were 1.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 1.43) for all cancers, 0.55 (95% CI: 0.26, 1.19) for childhood leukemia, and 1.68 (95% CI: 0.98, 2.91) for childhood central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Results of the incidence density analysis, based on 4,246 cancer cases, were similar for all types of cancer and leukemia but did not indicate a CNS tumor risk (incidence rate ratio = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.46). This large census-based cohort study did not suggest an association between predicted RF-EMF exposure from broadcasting and childhood leukemia. Results for CNS tumors were less consistent, but the most comprehensive analysis did not suggest an association.

Who is likely to develop persistent low back pain? A longitudinal analysis of prognostic occupational factors

OBJECTIVE: Occupational low back pain (LBP) is considered to be the most expensive form of work disability, with the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP exceeding the costs of acute and subacute LBP by far. This makes the early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent LBP essential, especially in working populations. The aim of the study was to evaluate both risk factors (for the development of persistent LBP) and protective factors (preventing the development of persistent LBP) in the same cohort. PARTICIPANTS: An inception cohort of 315 patients with acute to subacute or with recurrent LBP was recruited from 14 health practitioners (twelve general practitioners and two physiotherapists) across New Zealand. METHODS: Patients with persistent LBP at six-month follow-up were compared to patients with non-persistent LBP looking at occupational, psychological, biomedical and demographic/lifestyle predictors at baseline using multiple logistic regression analyses. All significant variables from the different domains were combined into a one predictor model. RESULTS: A final two-predictor model with an overall predictive value of 78% included social support at work (OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.45 to 0.99) and somatization (OR 1.08; 95%CI 1.01 to 1.15). CONCLUSIONS: Social support at work should be considered as a resource preventing the development of persistent LBP whereas somatization should be considered as a risk factor for the development of persistent LBP. Further studies are needed to determine if addressing these factors in workplace interventions for patients suffering from acute, subacute or recurrent LBP prevents subsequent development of persistent LBP.