Predicting smoking cessation and its relapse in HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess whether prospective follow-up data within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study can be used to predict patients who stop smoking; or among smokers who stop, those who start smoking again. METHODS: We built prediction models first using clinical reasoning ('clinical models') and then by selecting from numerous candidate predictors using advanced statistical methods ('statistical models'). Our clinical models were based on literature that suggests that motivation drives smoking cessation, while dependence drives relapse in those attempting to stop. Our statistical models were based on automatic variable selection using additive logistic regression with component-wise gradient boosting. RESULTS: Of 4833 smokers, 26% stopped smoking, at least temporarily; because among those who stopped, 48% started smoking again. The predictive performance of our clinical and statistical models was modest. A basic clinical model for cessation, with patients classified into three motivational groups, was nearly as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the most important predictors (the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits, alcohol or drug dependence, psychiatric comorbidities, recent hospitalization and age). A basic clinical model for relapse, based on the maximum number of cigarettes per day prior to stopping, was not as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting smoking cessation and relapse is difficult, so that simple models are nearly as discriminatory as complex ones. Patients with a history of attempting to stop and those known to have stopped recently are the best candidates for an intervention.

Response of subfossil Cladocera in Gerzensee (Swiss Plateau) to early Late Glacial environmental change

Sub-fossil Cladocera were studied in a core from Gerzensee (Swiss Plateau) for the late-glacial periods of Oldest Dryas, Bølling, and Allerød. Cladocera assemblages were dominated by cold-tolerant littoral taxa Chydorus sphaericus, Acroperus harpae, Alonella nana, Alona affinis, and Alonella excisa. The rapid warming at the beginning of the Bølling (GI-1e) ca. 14,650 yr before present (BP: before AD 1950) was indicated by an abrupt 2‰ shift in carbonate δ18O and a clear change in pollen assemblages. Cladocera assemblages, in contrast, changed more gradually. C. sphaericus and A. harpae are the most cold-tolerant, and their abundance was highest in the earliest part of the record. Only 150–200 years after the beginning of the Bølling warming we observed an increase in less cold-tolerant A. excisa and A. affinis. The establishment of Alona guttata, A. guttata var. tuberculata, and Pleuroxus unicatus was delayed by ca. 350, 770, and 800 years respectively after the onset of the Bølling. The development of the Cladocera assemblages suggests increasing water temperatures during the Bølling/Allerød, which agrees with the interpretation by von Grafenstein et al. (2013-this issue) that decreasing δ18O values in carbonates in this period reflect increasing summer water temperatures at the sediment–water interface. Other processes also affected the Cladocera community, including the development and diversification of aquatic vegetation favourable for Cladocera. The record is clearly dominated by Chydoridae, as expected for a littoral core. Yet, the planktonic Eubosmina-group occurred throughout the core, with the exception of a period at ca. 13,760–13,420 yr BP. Lake levels reconstructed for this period are relatively low, indicating that the littoral location might have become too shallow for Eubosmina in that period.

Expectation-based types of volunteers in Swiss sports clubs

Volunteer research in sports clubs has paid hardly any attention to the individual expectations even though matching conditions to the specific volunteer’s expectations represents a major management challenge. This article presents a person-oriented approach to the expectation profiles of volunteers that delivers the basis for identifying different volunteer segments. The approach assumes explicitly that volunteers in sports clubs develop specific expectations regarding their working conditions. These expectations were determined in a sample of 441 members of 45 selected sports clubs. Proximately, a cluster analysis revealed that volunteers vary in their expectations regarding voluntary work. Four different types of volunteers could be identified: (1) recognition seekers, (2) material incentive seekers, (3) participation and communication seekers, and (4) support seekers. These “expectation-based volunteer types” could also be characterized in socioeconomic, membershiprelated, and volunteer-work-related terms. These types could serve as a basis for designing specific voluntary work conditions in sports clubs.

HIV encephalopathy: incidence, definition and pathogenesis. Results of a Swiss collaborative study

The incidence of HIV encephalopathies was determined in an ongoing consecutive autopsy study. Among 345 patients who died from AIDS in Switzerland during 1981-1990, 68 (19%) showed morphological evidence of HIV encephalopathy. Two major histopathological manifestations were observed. Progressive diffuse leukoencephalopathy (PDL) was present in 33 cases and is characterized by a diffuse loss of myelin staining in the deep white matter of the cerebral and cerebellar hemispheres, with scattered multinucleated giant cells but little or no inflammatory reaction. Multinucleated giant cell encephalitis (MGCE) was diagnosed in 32 cases; it's hallmarks are accumulations of multinucleated giant cells with prominent inflammatory reaction and focal necroses. In 3 patients both types of lesions overlapped. Brain tissue from 27 patients was analyzed for the presence of HIV gag sequences using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with primers encoding a 109 base pair segment of the viral gene. Amplification succeeded in all patients with clinical and histopathological evidence for HIV encephalopathy but was absent in AIDS patients with opportunistic bacterial, parasitic and/or viral infections. Potential mechanisms by which HIV exerts it's adverse effects on the human CNS are discussed.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Swiss Social Report: Generations in Perspective

Based on systematically prepared data and indicators, the Social Report 2012 informs about the current status and development trends in the Swiss society. This issue focuses on intergenerational relationships: How, for example, are intergenerational transfers carried out and what are they caused by? Does different cultural behaviour depend on the age group or do other social differences play a role? Do age-specific discriminations exist? Are young adults less politically involved than their parents? What impact has the demographic development of recent years had on the geographic structure? In addition to a selection of 75 indicators on these and other subjects, the Social Report contains five analytically oriented in-depth articles that are written from the perspective of the generational issue and which are dedicated to the following individual aspects: Equality of opportunities, cultural behaviour, age-specific discrimination, political involvement and the spatial reflection of the demographic changes. The Social Report 2012 is rooted in the tradition of the earlier issues of 2000, 2004 and 2008, which have been completely updated and supplemented with additional indicators. All the data are graphically presented and available in electronic form on this website. The five in-depth articles and all the short commentaries on the indicators were completely rewritten.

Socioeconomic, Temporal and Regional Variation in Body Mass Index among 188,537 Swiss Male Conscripts Born between 1986 and 1992

BACKGROUND Rising levels of overweight and obesity are important public-health concerns worldwide. The purpose of this study is to elucidate their prevalence and trends in Switzerland by analyzing variations in Body Mass Index (BMI) of Swiss conscripts. METHODS The conscription records were provided by the Swiss Army. This study focussed on conscripts 18.5-20.5 years of age from the seven one-year birth cohorts spanning the period 1986-1992. BMI across professional status, area-based socioeconomic position (abSEP), urbanicity and regions was analyzed. Two piecewise quantile regression models with linear splines for three birth-cohort groups were used to examine the association of median BMI with explanatory variables and to determine the extent to which BMI has varied over time. RESULTS The study population consisted of 188,537 individuals. Median BMI was 22.51 kg/m2 (22.45-22.57 95% confidence interval (CI)). BMI was lower among conscripts of high professional status (-0.46 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.50, -0.42, compared with low), living in areas of high abSEP (-0.11 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.16, -0.07 compared to medium) and from urban communities (-0.07 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.11, -0.03, compared with peri-urban). Comparing with Midland, median BMI was highest in the North-West (0.25 kg/m2; 95% CI: 0.19-0.30) and Central regions (0.11 kg/m2; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and lowest in the East (-0.19 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.24, -0.14) and Lake Geneva regions (-0.15 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.20, -0.09). Trajectories of regional BMI growth varied across birth cohorts, with median BMI remaining high in the Central and North-West regions, whereas stabilization and in some cases a decline were observed elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS BMI of Swiss conscripts is associated with individual and abSEP and urbanicity. Results show regional variation in the levels and temporal trajectories of BMI growth and signal their possible slowdown among recent birth cohorts.

Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and immunoglobulins in an older Swiss cohort: results of the Senior Labor Study.

BACKGROUND Vitamin D and the components of humoral immunity play important roles in human health. Older people have lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) serum levels than younger adults. We aimed to determine the levels of 25(OH)D serum concentrations in healthy senior citizens and to study their relationship to the levels of components of humoral immunity. METHODS A total of 1,470 healthy Swiss men and women, 60 years or older, were recruited for this study. A total of 179 subjects dropped out of the study because of elevated serum concentrations of C-reactive protein. Fasting blood sera were analyzed for 25(OH)D with the high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and for parathyroid hormone (PTH), immunoglobulins and complement C4 and C3 concentrations with immunoassays. The percentage of participants in each of the four 25(OH)D deficiency groups--severely deficient (<10 ng/ml), deficient (10 to 20), insufficient (21 to 29 ng/ml) and normal (>=30 ng/ml)--were statistically compared. The relationship of the major components of the humoral system and age with 25(OH)D levels was also assessed. RESULTS About 66% of the subjects had insufficient levels of 25(OH)D. Normal levels of 25(OH)D were found in 26.1% of the subjects of which 21% were males and 30.5% were females (total study population). Severely deficient levels of 25(OH)D were found in 7.98% of the total study population. Low levels of 25(OH)D were positively associated with IgG2 (P = 0.01) and with C4 (P = 0.02), yet were inversely related to levels of IgG1 and IgA (P < 0.05) and C3 (P = 0.01). Serum levels of total IgA, IgG, IgG2 and IgG4 peaked together with 25(OH)D during late summer. CONCLUSIONS Approximately two-thirds of the healthy, older Swiss population presented with Vitamin D insufficiency. The incremental shift in IgA and C3 levels might not necessarily reflect a deranged humoral immune defense; however, given the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency, the importance of this condition in humoral immunity will be worth looking at more closely. This study supports the role of vitamin D in the competent immune system.

Primary care at Swiss universities - current state and perspective

Background There is increasing evidence that a strong primary care is a cornerstone of an efficient health care system. But Switzerland is facing a shortage of primary care physicians (PCPs). This pushed the Federal Council of Switzerland to introduce a multifaceted political programme to strengthen the position of primary care, including its academic role. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of the situation of academic primary care at the five Swiss universities by the end of year 2012. Results Although primary care teaching activities have a long tradition at the five Swiss universities with activities starting in the beginning of the 1980ies; the academic institutes of primary care were only established in recent years (2005 – 2009). Only one of them has an established chair. Human and financial resources vary substantially. At all universities a broad variety of courses and lectures are offered, including teaching in private primary care practices with 1331 PCPs involved. Regarding research, differences among the institutes are tremendous, mainly caused by entirely different human resources and skills. Conclusion So far, the activities of the existing institutes at the Swiss Universities are mainly focused on teaching. However, for a complete academic institutionalization as well as an increased acceptance and attractiveness, more research activities are needed. In addition to an adequate basic funding of research positions, competitive research grants have to be created to establish a specialty-specific research culture.

Analysis of caesarean section rates over time in a single Swiss centre using a ten-group classification system.

OBJECTIVE Caesarean section (CS) rates have risen over the past two decades. The aim of this observational study was to identify time-dependent variations in CS and vaginal delivery rates over a period of 11 years. METHOD All deliveries (13,701 deliveries during the period 1999-2009) at the University Women's Hospital Bern were analysed using an internationally standardised and approved ten-group classification system. Caesarean sections on maternal request (CSMR) were evaluated separately. RESULTS We detected an overall CS rate of 36.63% and an increase in the CS rate over time (p <0.001). Low-risk profile groups were the two largest populations and displayed low CS rates, with significantly decreasing relative size over time. The relative size of groups with induced labour increased significantly, but this did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. Pregnancies complicated by breech position, multiple pregnancies and abnormal lies did not have an impact on overall CS rate. The biggest contributor to a high CS rate was preterm delivery and the existence of a uterine scar from a previous CS. CSMR was 1.45% and did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. CONCLUSION The observational study identified wide variations in caesarean section and vaginal delivery rates across the groups over time, and a shift towards high-risk populations was noted. The biggest contributors to high CS rates were identified; namely, previous uterine scar and preterm delivery. Interventions aiming to reduce CS rates are planned.

Virological outcome and management of persistent low-level viraemia in HIV-1-infected patients: 11 years of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Management of persistent low-level viraemia (pLLV) in patients on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with previously undetectable HIV viral loads (VLs) is challenging. We examined virological outcome and management among patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS In this retrospective study (2000-2011), pLLV was defined as a VL of 21-400 copies/mL on ≥3 consecutive plasma samples with ≥8 weeks between first and last analyses, in patients undetectable for ≥24 weeks on cART. Control patients had ≥3 consecutive undetectable VLs over ≥32 weeks. Virological failure (VF), analysed in the pLLV patient group, was defined as a VL>400 copies/mL. RESULTS Among 9972 patients, 179 had pLLV and 5389 were controls. Compared to controls, pLLV patients were more often on unboosted PI-based (adjusted odds ratio, aOR, [95%CI] 3.2 [1.8-5.9]) and NRTI-only combinations (aOR 2.1 [1.1-4.2]) than on NNRTI and boosted PI-based regimens. At 48 weeks, 102/155 pLLV patients (66%) still had pLLV, 19/155 (12%) developed VF, and 34/155 (22%) had undetectable VLs. Predictors of VF were previous VF (aOR 35 [3.8-315]), unboosted PI-based (aOR 12.8 [1.7-96]) or NRTI-only combinations (aOR 115 [6.8-1952]), and VLs>200 during pLLV (aOR 3.7 [1.1-12]). No VF occurred in patients with persistent very LLV (pVLLV, 21-49 copies/mL; N=26). At 48 weeks, 29/39 patients (74%) who changed cART had undetectable VLs, compared to 19/74 (26%) without change (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Among patients with pLLV, VF was predicted by previous VF, cART regimen and VL ≥200. Most patients who changed cART had undetectable VLs 48 weeks later. These findings support cART modification for pLLV >200 copies/ml.

Swiss national guideline for reimbursement of enzyme replacement therapy in late-onset Pompe disease.

Glycogen storage disease type II is a rare multi-systemic disorder characterised by an intracellular accumulation of glycogen due a mutation in the acid alpha glucosidase (GAA) gene. The level of residual enzyme activity, the genotype and other yet unknown factors account for the broad variation of the clinical phenotype. The classical infantile form is characterised by severe muscle hypotonia and cardiomyopathy leading to early death. The late-onset form presents as a limb girdle myopathy with or without pulmonary dysfunction. Enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) with recombinant human GAA (rhGAA) in infants is life saving. In contrast, therapeutic efficacy of rhGAA in the late-onset form is modest. High expenses of rhGAA, on-going infusions and poor pharmacokinetic efficacy raised a discussion of the cost effectiveness of ERT in late-onset Pompe disease in Switzerland. This discussion was triggered by a Swiss federal court ruling which confirmed the reluctance of a health care insurer not to reimburse treatment costs in a 67-year-old female suffering from Pompe disease. As a consequence of this judgement ERT was stopped by all insurance companies in late-onset Pompe patients in Switzerland regardless of their clinical condition. Subsequent negotiations lead to the release of a national guideline of the management of late-onset Pompe disease. Initiation and limitation of ERT is outlined in a national Pompe registry. Reimbursement criteria are defined and individual efficacy of ERT with rhGAA is continuously monitored.