Site and Age Condition the Growth Responses to Climate and Drought of Relict Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii Populations in Southern Spain

To assess if tree age may modulate the main climatic drivers of radial growth, two relict Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii populations (Maria, most xeric site; Magina, least xeric site) were sampled in southern Spain near the limits of the species range. Tree-ring width residual chronologies for two age groups (mature trees, age <= 100 years (minimum 40 years); old trees, age > 100 years) were built to evaluate their responses to climate by relating them to monthly precipitation and temperature and a drought index (DRI) using correlation and response functions. We found that drought is the main driver of growth of relict P. nigra populations, but differences between sites and age classes were also observed. First, growth in the most xeric site depends on the drought severity during the previous autumn and the spring of the year of tree-ring formation, whereas in the relatively more mesic site growth is mainly enhanced by warm and wet conditions in spring. Second, growth of mature trees responded more to drought severity than that of old trees. Our findings indicate that drought severity will mainly affect growth of relict P. nigra populations dominated by mature trees in xeric sites. This conclusion may also apply to similar mountain Mediterranean conifer relicts.

Does fog chemistry in Switzerland change with altitude?

During two extended summer seasons in 2006 and 2007 we operated two battery driven versions of the Caltech active strand cloud water collector (MiniCASCC) at the Niesen mountain (2362 m a.s.l.) in the northern part of the Swiss Alps, and two devices at the Lägeren research tower (690 m a.s.l.) at the northern boundary of the Swiss Plateau. During these two field operation phases we gained weekly samples of fog water, where we analyzed the major anions and cations, and the isotope ratios of fog water (in form of δ2H and δ18O). Dominant ions in fog water at all sites were NH4+, NO3−, and SO42 −. Compared to precipitation, the enrichment factors in fog water were in the range 5–9 at the highest site, Niesen Kulm. We found considerably lower summertime ion loadings in fog water at the two Alpine sites than at lower elevations above the Swiss Plateau. The lowest ion concentrations were found at the Niesen Kulm site at 2300 m a.s.l., whereas the highest concentrations (a factor 7 compared to Niesen Kulm) were found in fog water at the Lägeren site. Occult nitrogen deposition was estimated from fog frequency and typical fog water flux rates. This pathway contributes 0.3–3.9 kg N ha− 1 yr− 1 to the total N deposition at the highest site on Niesen mountain, and 0.1–2.2 kg N ha− 1 yr− 1 at the lower site. These inputs are the reverse of ion concentrations measured in fog due to the 2.5 times higher frequency of fog occurrence at the mountain top (overall fog occurrence was 25% of the time) as compared to the lower Niesen Schwandegg site. Although fog water concentrations were on the lower range reported in earlier studies, fog water is likely to be an important N source for Northern Alpine ecosystems and might reach values up to 16% of the total N deposition and up to 75% of wet N deposition by precipitation.

Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Glaciers. 2. Model Results of Deposition and Incorporation Processes

In previous work, Alpine glaciers have been identified as a secondary source of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). However, detailed understanding of the processes organic chemicals undergo in a glacial system was missing. Here, we present results from a chemical fate model describing deposition and incorporation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) into an Alpine glacier (Fiescherhorn, Switzerland) and an Arctic glacier (Lomonosovfonna, Norway). To understand PCB fate and dynamics, we investigate the interaction of deposition, sorption to ice and particles in the atmosphere and within the glacier, revolatilization, diffusion and degradation, and discuss the effects of these processes on the fate of individual PCB congeners. The model is able to reproduce measured absolute concentrations in the two glaciers for most PCB congeners. While the model generally predicts concentration profiles peaking in the 1970s, in the measurements, this behavior can only be seen for higher-chlorinated PCB congeners on Fiescherhorn glacier. We suspect seasonal melt processes are disturbing the concentration profiles of the lower-chlorinated PCB congeners. While a lower-chlorinated PCB congener is mainly deposited by dry deposition and almost completely revolatilized after deposition, a higher-chlorinated PCB congener is predominantly transferred to the glacier surface by wet deposition and then is incorporated into the glacier ice. The incorporated amounts of PCBs are higher on the Alpine glacier than on the Arctic glacier due to the higher precipitation rate and aerosol particle concentration on the former. Future studies should include the effects of seasonal melt processes, calculate the quantities of PCBs incorporated into the entire glacier surface, and estimate the quantity of chemicals released from glaciers to determine the importance of glaciers as a secondary source of organic chemicals to remote aquatic ecosystems.

A climatological analysis of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and associated large-scale atmospheric conditions

The link between high precipitation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated using ERA-Interim data for 1979–2009. High-precipitation events are analyzed at Halvfarryggen situated in the coastal region of DML and at Kohnen Station located in its interior. This study further includes a comprehensive comparison of high precipitation in ERA-Interim with precipitation data from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWSs), with the limitations of such a comparison being discussed. The ERA-Interim and AMPS precipitation data agree very well. However, the correspondence between high precipitation in ERA-Interim and high snow accumulation at the AWSs is relatively weak. High-precipitation events at both Halvfarryggen and Kohnen are typically associated with amplified upper level waves. This large-scale atmospheric flow pattern is preceded by the downstream development of a Rossby wave train from the eastern South Pacific several days before the precipitation event. At the surface, a cyclone located over the Weddell Sea is the main synoptic ingredient for high precipitation both at Halvfarryggen and at Kohnen. A blocking anticyclone downstream is not a requirement for high precipitation per se, but a larger share of blocking occurrences during the highest-precipitation days in DML suggests that these blocks strengthen the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into DML. A strong link between high precipitation and the IVT perpendicular to the local orography suggests that IVT could be used as a “proxy” for high precipitation, in particular over DML's interior.

Land-atmosphere coupling over North America in CRCM5

Land-atmosphere coupling and its impact on extreme precipitation and temperature events over North America are studied using the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this effect, two 30 year long simulations, spanning the 1981–2010 period, with and without land-atmosphere coupling, have been performed with CRCM5, driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis at the boundaries. In the coupled simulation, the soil moisture interacts freely with the atmosphere at each time step, while in the uncoupled simulation, soil moisture is replaced with its climatological value computed from the coupled simulation, thus suppressing the soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. Analyses of the coupled and uncoupled simulations, for the summer period, show strong soil moisture-temperature coupling over the Great Plains, consistent with previous studies. The maxima of soil moisture-precipitation coupling is more spread out and covers the semiarid regions of the western U.S. and parts of the Great Plains. However, the strength of soil moisture-precipitation coupling is found to be generally weaker than that of soil moisture-temperature coupling. The study clearly indicates that land-atmosphere coupling increases the interannual variability of the seasonal mean daily maximum temperature in the Great Plains. Land-atmosphere coupling is found to significantly modulate selected temperature extremes such as the number of hot days, frequency, and maximum duration of hot spells over the Great Plains. Results also suggest additional hot spots, where soil moisture modulates extreme events. These hot spots are located in the southeast U.S. for the hot days/hot spells and in the semiarid regions of the western U.S. for extreme wet spells. This study thus demonstrates that climatologically wet/dry regions can become hot spots of land-atmosphere coupling when the soil moisture decreases/increases to an intermediate transitional level where evapotranspiration becomes moisture sensitive and large enough to affect the climate.

Using 18O/2H, 3H/3He, 85Kr and CFCs to determine mean residence times and water origin in the Grazer and Leibnitzer Feld groundwater bodies (Austria)

Two groundwater bodies, Grazer Feld and Leibnitzer Feld, with surface areas of 166 and 103 km2 respectively are characterised for the first time by measuring the combination of d18O/d2H, 3H/3He, 85Kr, CFC-11, CFC-12 and hydrochemistry in 34 monitoring wells in 2009/2010. The timescales of groundwater recharge have been characterised by 131 d18O measurements of well and surface water sampled on a seasonal basis. Most monitoring wells show a seasonal variation or indicate variable contributions of the main river Mur (0–30%, max. 70%) and/or other rivers having their recharge areas in higher altitudes. Combined d18O/d2H-measurements indicate that 65–75% of groundwater recharge in the unusual wet year of 2009 was from precipitation in the summer based on values from the Graz meteorological station. Monitoring wells downstream of gravel pit lakes show a clear evaporation trend. A boron–nitrate differentiation plot shows more frequent boron-rich water in the more urbanised Grazer Feld and more frequent nitrate-rich water in the more agricultural used Leibnitzer Feld indicating that a some of the nitrate load in the Grazer Feld comes from urban sewer water. Several lumped parameter models based on tritium input data from Graz and monthly data from the river Mur (Spielfeld) since 1977 yield a Mean Residence Time (MRT) for the Mur-water itself between 3 and 4 years in this area. Data from d18O, 3H/3He measurements at the Wagna lysimeter station supports the conclusion that 90% of the groundwaters in the Grazer Feld and 73% in the Leibnitzer Feld have MRTs of <5 years. Only in a few groundwaters were MRTs of 6–10 or 11–25 years as a result of either a long-distance water inflow in the basins or due to longer flow path in somewhat deeper wells (>20 m) with relative thicker unsaturated zones. The young MRT of groundwater from two monitoring wells in the Leibnitzer Feld was confirmed by 85Kr-measurements. Most CFC-11 and CFC-12 concentrations in the groundwater exceed the equilibration concentrations of modern concentrations in water and are therefore unsuitable for dating purposes. An enrichment factor up to 100 compared to atmospheric equilibrium concentrations and the obvious correlation of CFC-12 with SO4, Na, Cl and B in the ground waters of the Grazer Feld suggest that waste water in contact with CFC-containing material above and below ground is the source for the contamination. The dominance of very young groundwater (<5 years) indicates a recent origin of the contamination by nitrate and many other components observed in parts of the groundwater bodies. Rapid measures to reduce those sources are needed to mitigate against further deterioration of these waters.

Colloidal meteorological processes in the formation of precipitation

This paper is the edited translation of the paper by Walter Findeisen “Die kolloidmeteorologischen Vorgänge bei der Niederschlagsbildung” (Colloidal meteorological processes in the formation of precipitation) that was published 1938 in the Meteorologische Zeitschrift 55, 121–133

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

Implementation and evaluation of permeability-porosity and tortuosity-porosity relationships linked to mineral dissolution-precipitation

Changes of porosity, permeability, and tortuosity due to physical and geochemical processes are of vital importance for a variety of hydrogeological systems, including passive treatment facilities for contaminated groundwater, engineered barrier systems (EBS), and host rocks for high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repositories. Due to the nonlinear nature and chemical complexity of the problem, in most cases, it is impossible to verify reactive transport codes analytically, and code intercomparisons are the most suitable method to assess code capabilities and model performance. This paper summarizes model intercomparisons for six hypothetical scenarios with generally increasing geochemical or physical complexity using the reactive transport codes CrunchFlow, HP1, MIN3P, PFlotran, and TOUGHREACT. Benchmark problems include the enhancement of porosity and permeability through mineral dissolution, as well as near complete clogging due to localized mineral precipitation, leading to reduction of permeability and tortuosity. Processes considered in the benchmark simulations are advective-dispersive transport in saturated media, kinetically controlled mineral dissolution-precipitation, and aqueous complexation. Porosity changes are induced by mineral dissolution-precipitation reactions, and the Carman-Kozeny relationship is used to describe changes in permeability as a function of porosity. Archie’s law is used to update the tortuosity and the pore diffusion coefficient as a function of porosity. Results demonstrate that, generally, good agreement is reached amongst the computer models despite significant differences in model formulations. Some differences are observed, in particular for the more complex scenarios involving clogging; however, these differences do not affect the interpretation of system behavior and evolution.

Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.