Are there accurate predictors of long-term vital and functional outcomes in cardiac surgical patients requiring prolonged intensive care?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The decision to maintain intensive treatment in cardiac surgical patients with poor initial outcome is mostly based on individual experience. The risk scoring systems used in cardiac surgery have no prognostic value for individuals. This study aims to assess (a) factors possibly related to poor survival and functional outcomes in cardiac surgery patients requiring prolonged (> or = 5 days) intensive care unit (ICU) treatment, (b) conditions in which treatment withdrawal might be justified, and (c) the patient's perception of the benefits and drawbacks of long intensive treatments. METHODS: The computerized data prospectively recorded for every patient in the intensive care unit over a 3-year period were reviewed and analyzed (n=1859). Survival and quality of life (QOL) outcomes were determined in all patients having required > or =5 consecutive days of intensive treatment (n=194/10.4%). Long-term survivors were interviewed at yearly intervals in a standardized manner and quality of life was assessed using the dependency score of Karnofsky. No interventions or treatments were given, withhold, or withdrawn as part of this study. RESULTS: In-hospital, 1-, and 3-year cumulative survival rates reached 91.3%, 85.6%, and 75.1%, respectively. Quality of life assessed 1 year postoperatively by the score of Karnofsky was good in 119/165 patients, fair in 32 and poor in 14. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of 19 potential predictors of poor outcome identified dialysis as the sole factor significantly (p=0.027) - albeit moderately - reducing long-term survival, and sustained neurological deficit as an inconstant predictor of poor functional outcome (p=0.028). One year postoperatively 0.63% of patients still reminded of severe suffering in the intensive station and 20% of discomfort. Only 7.7% of patients would definitely refuse redo surgery. CONCLUSIONS: This study of cardiac surgical patients requiring > or =5 days of intensive treatment did not identify factors unequivocally justifying early treatment limitation in individuals. It found that 1-year mortality and disability rates can be maintained at a low level in this subset of patients, and that severe suffering in the ICU is infrequent.

Predictors of oral health quality of life in older adults

There is limited information regarding oral health status and other predictors of oral health-related quality of life. An association between oral health status and perceived oral health-related quality of life (OHQOL) might help clinicians motivate patients to prevent oral diseases and improve the outcome of some dental public health programs. This study evaluated the relationship between older persons' OHQOL and their functional dentition, caries, periodontal status, chronic diseases, and some demographic characteristics. A group of 733 low-income elders (mean age 72.7 [SD = 4.71, 55.6% women, 55.1% members of ethnic minority groups in the U.S. and Canada) enrolled in the TEETH clinical trial were interviewed and examined as part of their fifth annual visit for the trial. OHQOL was measured by the Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI); oral health and occlusal status by clinical exams and the Eichner Index; and demographics via interviews. Elders who completed the four-year assessment had an average of 21.5 teeth (SD = 6.9), with 8.5 occluding pairs (SD = 4.6), and 32% with occlusal contacts in all four occluding zones. Stepwise multiple regressions were conducted to predict total GOHAI and its subscores (Physical, Social, and Worry). Functional dentition was a less significant predictor than ethnicity and being foreign-born. These variables, together with gender, years since immigrating, number of carious roots, and periodontal status, could predict 32% of the variance in total GOHAI, 24% in Physical, 27% in Social, and 21% in the Worry subscales. These findings suggest that functional dentition and caries influence older adults' OHQOL, but that ethnicity and immigrant status play a larger role.

Predictors of early relapse in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the BIG 1-98 trial

BACKGROUND: Aromatase inhibitors are considered standard adjuvant endocrine treatment of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, but it remains uncertain whether aromatase inhibitors should be given upfront or sequentially with tamoxifen. Awaiting results from ongoing randomized trials, we examined prognostic factors of an early relapse among patients in the BIG 1-98 trial to aid in treatment choices. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analyses included all 7707 eligible patients treated on BIG 1-98. The median follow-up was 2 years, and the primary end point was breast cancer relapse. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify prognostic factors. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-five patients (3.7%) had an early relapse (3.1% on letrozole, 4.4% on tamoxifen). Predictive factors for early relapse were node positivity (P < 0.001), absence of both receptors being positive (P < 0.001), high tumor grade (P < 0.001), HER-2 overexpression/amplification (P < 0.001), large tumor size (P = 0.001), treatment with tamoxifen (P = 0.002), and vascular invasion (P = 0.02). There were no significant interactions between treatment and the covariates, though letrozole appeared to provide a greater than average reduction in the risk of early relapse in patients with many involved lymph nodes, large tumors, and vascular invasion present. CONCLUSION: Upfront letrozole resulted in significantly fewer early relapses than tamoxifen, even after adjusting for significant prognostic factors.

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951–2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951–2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

Ecological study of the predictors of successful management of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected patients on ART: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

PURPOSE: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may induce metabolic changes and increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Based on a health care system approach, we investigated predictors for normalization of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected individuals receiving ART. METHOD: Individuals included in the study were registered in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), had dyslipidemia but were not on lipid-lowering medication, were on potent ART for >or= 3 months, and had >or= 2 follow-up visits. Dyslipidemia was defined as two consecutive total cholesterol (TC) values above recommended levels. Predictors of achieving treatment goals for TC were assessed using Cox models. RESULTS: Analysis included 958 individuals with median followup of 2.3 years (IQR 1.2-4.0). 454 patients (47.4%) achieved TC treatment goals. In adjusted analyses, variables significantly associated with a lower hazard of reaching TC treatment goals were as follows: older age (compared to 18-37 year olds: hazard ratio [HR] 0.62 for 45-52 year olds, 95% CI 0.47-0.82; HR 0.40 for 53-85, 95% CI 0.29-0.54), diabetes (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.26-0.59), history of coronary heart disease (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10-0.71), higher baseline TC (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85), baseline triple nucleoside regimen (HR 0.12 compared to PI-only regimen, 95% CI 0.07-0.21), longer time on PI-only regimen (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33-0.46), longer time on NNRTI only regimen (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.29-0.43), and longer time on PI/NNRTI regimen (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26-0.43). Switching ART regimen when viral load was undetectable was associated with a higher hazard of reaching TC treatment goals (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.14-1.91). CONCLUSION: In SHCS participants on ART, several ART-related and not ART-related epidemiological factors were associated with insufficient control of dyslipidemia. Control of dyslipidemia in ART recipients must be further improved.

Prevalence and predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder in patients with acute myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE: We estimated the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and identified predictors of self-rated PTSD symptoms in patients post-myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS: We recruited 400 patients (mean age 60 +/- 12 years, 79% were men) with a previous acute index MI who were referred to a tertiary cardiology clinic. PTSD was assessed by the Clinician-administered PTSD Scale, and self-rated severity of PTSD symptom levels were assessed by the Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale. RESULTS: Of the 190 patients who completed the Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale, 34 met the cutoff for clinically significant PTSD symptomatology and 32 agreed to be interviewed. Among these patients, the Clinician-administered PTSD Scale interview yielded a prevalence of full and subsyndromal PTSD of 9.5% (95% confidence interval 7.4-11.6). Retrospectively rated feelings of helplessness (beta = .47, P < .001) and pain intensity during MI (beta = .15, P = .019) independently predicted PTSD symptom level. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 10% of patients post-MI had full or subsyndromal PTSD. Subjective perception of MI predicted self-rated PTSD symptom level.

Differences across health care systems in outcome and cost-utility of surgical and conservative treatment of chronic low back pain: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on differences across health care systems in choice and outcome of the treatment of chronic low back pain (CLBP) with spinal surgery and conservative treatment as the main options. At least six randomised controlled trials comparing these two options have been performed; they show conflicting results without clear-cut evidence for superior effectiveness of any of the evaluated interventions and could not address whether treatment effect varied across patient subgroups. Cost-utility analyses display inconsistent results when comparing surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP. Due to its higher feasibility, we chose to conduct a prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: This study aims to examine if1. Differences across health care systems result in different treatment outcomes of surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP2. Patient characteristics (work-related, psychological factors, etc.) and co-interventions (physiotherapy, cognitive behavioural therapy, return-to-work programs, etc.) modify the outcome of treatment for CLBP3. Cost-utility in terms of quality-adjusted life years differs between surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP.This study will recruit 1000 patients from orthopaedic spine units, rehabilitation centres, and pain clinics in Switzerland and New Zealand. Effectiveness will be measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at baseline and after six months. The change in ODI will be the primary endpoint of this study.Multiple linear regression models will be used, with the change in ODI from baseline to six months as the dependent variable and the type of health care system, type of treatment, patient characteristics, and co-interventions as independent variables. Interactions will be incorporated between type of treatment and different co-interventions and patient characteristics. Cost-utility will be measured with an index based on EQol-5D in combination with cost data. CONCLUSION: This study will provide evidence if differences across health care systems in the outcome of treatment of CLBP exist. It will classify patients with CLBP into different clinical subgroups and help to identify specific target groups who might benefit from specific surgical or conservative interventions. Furthermore, cost-utility differences will be identified for different groups of patients with CLBP. Main results of this study should be replicated in future studies on CLBP.

Anti-Müllerian hormone and inhibin B as predictors of pregnancy after treatment by in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) as a marker of reproductive outcome after IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). DESIGN: Longitudinal study. SETTING: University hospital. PATIENT(S): Two hundred seventy-six consecutive women undergoing IVF/ICSI. INTERVENTION(S): Ovarian stimulation, oocyte retrieval, IVF, ICSI, embryo transfer, AMH, and inhibin B determinations in serum and follicular fluid (FF). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): The AMH and inhibin B concentrations in 276 matched FF/serum pairs have been determined. Different outcome groups have been compared and set in relation to the oocyte count, morphological parameters, and steroid hormone levels. RESULT(S): The concentrations of AMH and inhibin B in both serum and FF were significantly higher in the group of women who became pregnant in the corresponding treatment cycle than in those who did not conceive. Positive correlations were observed between serum inhibin B concentrations and embryo morphology (r = 0.126, 95% confidence interval 0.026-0.284). Serum and FF AMH or inhibin B correlated positively with the oocyte count and negatively with the pretreatment cycle day 3 FSH level and the total administered gonadotropin dose. CONCLUSION(S): The AMH and inhibin B levels on the day of oocyte retrieval are correlated to reproductive outcome.

Predictors of swallowing outcome in patients treated with surgery and radiotherapy for advanced oral and oropharyngeal cancer

Retaining effective swallowing is a key element when optimising outcomes in the management of head and neck cancer. We report the functional swallowing outcomes for a cohort of 31 individuals with advanced oral and oropharyngeal cancer who underwent free or pedicled flap reconstruction of surgical defects. Swallowing was assessed pre and immediately post surgery and at four months post treatment. Swallowing assessments were related to site, size and volume of defect and composition of flap reconstruction. The effect of radiotherapy on swallowing was assessed among 17 of the 31 individuals who were submitted to radiotherapy after surgery. The proportion of patients on a total oral diet four months post treatment varied significantly by site of defect (Fishers exact test p=0.006), from 100% (7/7) of patients with a lateral defect to only 22% (2/9) of patients with a central defect. The proportion of patients on a total oral diet at the final assessment did not vary by flap reconstruction or radiotherapy.

Metabolic predictors of inflammation, adhesion, and coagulability in healthy younger-aged adults

Elevated levels of inflammatory biomarkers are associated with the pathophysiology of cardiovascular diseases and are predictors of cardiovascular events. The objective of this study was to determine the unique contributions of metabolic factors as predictors of inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6)), adhesion (soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1)), and coagulation (D-dimer) in healthy younger-aged adults. Participants were 83 women and 92 men (mean age 30.04 years, s.d. +/- 4.8, range 22-39) of normal weight to moderate obese weight (mean BMI 24.4 kg/m(2), s.d. +/- 3.35, range 17-32). The primary data analytical approaches included Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression. Circulating levels of CRP, IL-6, sICAM-1, and D-dimer were determined in plasma. Higher levels of CRP were independently associated with higher BMI, a greater waist-to-hip ratio, female gender, and higher triglycerides (P < 0.001). Higher IL-6 levels were independently associated with a greater waist-to-hip ratio (P < 0.01). Higher levels of sICAM-1 were independently associated with higher BMI, higher triglycerides, and lower insulin resistance (P < 0.001). Higher D-dimer levels were independently associated with higher BMI and being female (P < 0.001). Having a higher BMI was most consistently associated with elevated biomarkers of inflammation, adhesion, and coagulation in this sample of healthy younger-aged adults, although female gender, insulin resistance, and lipid levels were also related to the biomarkers. The findings provide insight into the adverse cardiovascular risk associated with elevated body weight in younger adults.

Percutaneous PFO closure with Amplatzer PFO occluder: predictors of residual shunts at 6 months follow-up

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess predictors of residual shunts after percutaneous patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure with Amplatzer PFO occluder (AGA Medical Corporation, Golden Valley, MN, USA). METHODS: All percutaneous PFO closures, using Amplatzer PFO occluder performed at a tertiary center between May 2002 and August 2006, were reviewed. Follow-up, including saline contrast transesophageal echocardiography, was performed in all patients 6 months after the intervention. PATIENTS: A total of 135 procedures were performed. Mean age of the patients was 51 years. The indication for PFO closure was an ischemic cerebrovascular event in 92%, paradoxical systemic embolism in 4%, and a diving accident in 4%. Recurrent events prior to PFO closure were noted in 34%. A concomitant atrial septal aneurysm was present in 61%. RESULTS: At 6 months follow-up, a residual shunt was detected in 26 patients (19%). Residual shunts were more common in patients with an atrial septal aneurysm (27 vs. 8%, P= .01) and in patients treated with a 35-mm compared with a 25-mm device (39 vs. 15%, P= .01). A concomitant atrial septal aneurysm remained independently associated with residual shunts when controlled for body mass index, gender, age, atrial dimensions, and presence of a Chiari network (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence intervals 1.1-15.0). CONCLUSION: The presence of atrial septal aneurysms in patients undergoing percutaneous PFO closure with an Amplatzer PFO occluder significantly increases the rate of residual shunts at 6 months follow-up, even if 35-mm devices are used.

Clinical and hemodynamic predictors of natriuretic peptide elevation among aortic valve disease patients

We investigated the relative contribution of hemodynamic and clinical factors to serum natriuretic peptide elevation in seventy-one patients with either aortic stenosis or aortic regurgitation. We found that pulmonary hypertension, heart failure and renal failure are the most powerful independent predictors of natriuretic peptide elevation in patients with aortic valve disease, irrespective of the type or severity of valvular lesion itself.

Predictors of attempted suicide among Swiss patients with alcohol-use disorders

Objective: Suicide attempts are common in patients being treated for alcohol-use disorders (AUDs). However, clinical assessment of suicide risk is difficult. In this Swiss multisite study, we propose a decision tree to facilitate identification of profiles of AUD patients at high risk for suicidal behavior. Method: In this retrospective study, we used a sample of 700 patients (243 female), attending 1 of 12 treatment programs for AUDs in the German-speaking part of Switzerland. Sixty-nine patients who reported a suicide attempt in the 3 months before the index treatment were compared using risk factors with 631 patients without a suicide attempt. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to identify patients at risk of having had a suicide attempt in the previous 3 months. Results: Consistent with previous empirical findings in AUD patients, a prior history of attempted suicide and severe symptoms of depression and aggression considerably increased the risk of a suicide attempt and, in combination, raised the likelihood of a prior suicide attempt to 52%. In addition, one third of AUD patients who had a history of suicide attempts and previous inpatient psychiatric treatment, or who were male and had previous inpatient psychiatric treatment, also reported a suicide attempt. Conclusions: The empirically supported decision tree helps to identify profiles of suicidal AUD patients in Switzerland and supplements clinicians' judgments in making triage decisions for suicide management.

Prevalence and predictors of suicide attempt in an incidence cohort of 661 young people with first-episode psychosis

Studies investigating suicidal behaviour in psychosis rarely focus on incidence cohorts of first-episode patients. This is important, because patients who refuse study participation have higher rates of comorbid substance use disorders and longer duration of untreated psychosis as well as worse course illness, variables potentially linked to higher prevalence of suicidal behaviour. The aims of the present study were therefore to examine the prevalence and predictors of suicide and suicide attempt before and during the first 18-24 months of treatment.

Retention in care of HIV-infected children from HIV test to start of antiretroviral therapy: systematic review

BACKGROUND In adults it is well documented that there are substantial losses to the programme between HIV testing and start of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The magnitude and reasons for loss to follow-up and death between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in children are not well defined. METHODS We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies on children followed between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in low-income settings. We examined the proportion of children with a CD4 cell count/percentage after after being diagnosed with HIV infection, the number of treatment-eligible children starting ART and predictors of loss to programme. Data were extracted in duplicate. RESULTS Eight studies from sub-Saharan Africa and two studies from Asia with a total of 10,741 children were included. Median age ranged from 2.2 to 6.5 years. Between 78.0 and 97.0% of HIV-infected children subsequently had a CD4 cell count/percentage measured, 63.2 to 90.7% of children with an eligibility assessment met the eligibility criteria for the particular setting and time and 39.5 to 99.4% of the eligible children started ART. Three studies reported an association between low CD4 count/percentage and ART initiation while no association was reported for gender. Only two studies reported on pre-ART mortality and found rates of 13 and 6 per 100 person-years. CONCLUSION Most children who presented for HIV care met eligibility criteria for ART. There is an urgent need for strategies to improve the access to and retention to care of HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings.