79 resultados para errors-in-variables model


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BACKGROUND: Reperfusion injury is insufficiently addressed in current clinical management of acute limb ischemia. Controlled reperfusion carries an enormous clinical potential and was tested in a new reality-driven rodent model. METHODS AND RESULTS: Acute hind-limb ischemia was induced in Wistar rats and maintained for 4 hours. Unlike previous tourniquets models, femoral vessels were surgically prepared to facilitate controlled reperfusion and to prevent venous stasis. Rats were randomized into an experimental group (n=7), in which limbs were selectively perfused with a cooled isotone heparin solution at a limited flow rate before blood flow was restored, and a conventional group (n=7; uncontrolled blood reperfusion). Rats were killed 4 hours after blood reperfusion. Nonischemic limbs served as controls. Ischemia/reperfusion injury was significant in both groups; total wet-to-dry ratio was 159+/-44% of normal (P=0.016), whereas muscle viability and contraction force were reduced to 65+/-13% (P=0.016) and 45+/-34% (P=0.045), respectively. Controlled reperfusion, however, attenuated reperfusion injury significantly. Tissue edema was less pronounced (132+/-16% versus 185+/-42%; P=0.011) and muscle viability (74+/-11% versus 57+/-9%; P=0.004) and contraction force (68+/-40% versus 26+/-7%; P=0.045) were better preserved than after uncontrolled reperfusion. Moreover, subsequent blood circulation as assessed by laser Doppler recovered completely after controlled reperfusion but stayed durably impaired after uncontrolled reperfusion (P=0.027). CONCLUSIONS: Reperfusion injury was significantly alleviated by basic modifications of the initial reperfusion period in a new in vivo model of acute limb ischemia. With this model, systematic optimizations of according protocols may eventually translate into improved clinical management of acute limb ischemia.

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Our goal was to validate accuracy, consistency, and reproducibility/reliability of a new method for determining cup orientation in total hip arthroplasty (THA). This method allows matching the 3D-model from CT images or slices with the projected pelvis on an anteroposterior pelvic radiograph using a fully automated registration procedure. Cup orientation (inclination and anteversion) is calculated relative to the anterior pelvic plane, corrected for individual malposition of the pelvis during radiograph acquisition. Measurements on blinded and randomized radiographs of 80 cadaver and 327 patient hips were investigated. The method showed a mean accuracy of 0.7 +/- 1.7 degrees (-3.7 degrees to 4.0 degrees) for inclination and 1.2 +/- 2.4 degrees (-5.3 degrees to 5.6 degrees) for anteversion in the cadaver trials and 1.7 +/- 1.7 degrees (-4.6 degrees to 5.5 degrees) for inclination and 0.9 +/- 2.8 degrees (-5.2 degrees to 5.7 degrees) for anteversion in the clinical data when compared to CT-based measurements. No systematic errors in accuracy were detected with the Bland-Altman analysis. The software consistency and the reproducibility/reliability were very good. This software is an accurate, consistent, reliable, and reproducible method to measure cup orientation in THA using a sophisticated 2D/3D-matching technique. Its robust and accurate matching algorithm can be expanded to statistical models.

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This review of late-Holocene palaeoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies derived from climate model runs, where the `answer' is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations. First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling should be concentrated.

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We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

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BACKGROUND Curcumin (CUR) is a dietary spice and food colorant (E100). Its potent anti-inflammatory activity by inhibiting the activation of Nuclear Factor-kappaB is well established. METHODS The aim of this study was to compare natural purified CUR (nCUR) with synthetically manufactured CUR (sCUR) with respect to their capacity to inhibit detrimental effects in an in vitro model of oral mucositis. The hypothesis was to demonstrate bioequivalence of nCUR and sCUR. RESULTS The purity of sCUR was HPLC-confirmed. Adherence and invasion assays for bacteria to human pharyngeal epithelial cells demonstrated equivalence of nCUR and sCUR. Standard assays also demonstrated an identical inhibitory effect on pro-inflammatory cytokine/chemokine secretion (e.g., interleukin-8, interleukin-6) by Detroit pharyngeal cells exposed to bacterial stimuli. There was bioequivalence of sCUR and nCUR with respect to their antibacterial effects against various pharyngeal species. CONCLUSION nCUR and sCUR are equipotent in in vitro assays mimicking aspects of oral mucositis. The advantages of sCUR include that it is odorless and tasteless, more easily soluble in DMSO, and that it is a single, highly purified molecule, lacking the batch-to-batch variation of CUR content in nCUR. sCUR is a promising agent for the development of an oral anti-mucositis agent.

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BACKGROUND CONTEXT Proteolytic enzyme digestion of the intervertebral disc (IVD) offers a method to simulate a condition of disc degeneration for the study of cell-scaffold constructs in the degenerated disc. PURPOSE To characterize an in vitro disc degeneration model (DDM) of different severities of glycosaminoglycans (GAG) and water loss by using papain, and to determine the initial response of the human mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) introduced into this DDM. STUDY DESIGN Disc degeneration model of a bovine disc explant with an end plate was induced by the injection of papain at various concentrations. Labeled MSCs were later introduced in this model. METHODS Phosphate-buffered saline (PBS control) or papain in various concentrations (3, 15, 30, 60, and 150 U/mL) were injected into the bovine caudal IVD explants. Ten days after the injection, GAG content of the discs was evaluated by dimethylmethylene blue assay and cell viability was determined by live/dead staining together with confocal microscopy. Overall matrix composition was evaluated by histology, and water content was visualized by magnetic resonance imaging. Compressive and torsional stiffness of the DDM were also recorded. In the second part, MSCs were labeled with a fluorescence cell membrane tracker and injected into the nucleus of the DDM or a PBS control. Mesenchymal stem cell viability and distribution were evaluated by confocal microscopy. RESULTS A large drop of GAG and water content of the bovine disc were obtained by injecting >30 U/mL papain. Magnetic resonance imaging showed Grade II, III, and IV disc degeneration by injecting 30, 60, and 150 U/mL papain. A cavity in the center of the disc could facilitate later injection of the nucleus pulposus tissue engineering construct while retaining an intact annulus fibrosus. The remaining disc cell viability was not affected. Mesenchymal stem cells injected into the protease-treated DDM disc showed significantly higher cell viability than when injected into the PBS-injected control disc. CONCLUSIONS By varying the concentration of papain for injection, an increasing amount of GAG and water loss could be induced to simulate the different severities of disc degeneration. MSC suspension introduced into the disc has a very low short-term survival. However, it should be clear that this bovine IVD DDM does not reflect a clinical situation but offers exciting possibilities to test novel tissue engineering protocols.

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Recombinant human erythropoietin (EPO) has been successfully tested as neuroprotectant in brain injury models. The first large clinical trial with stroke patients, however, revealed negative results. Reasons are manifold and may include side-effects such as thrombotic complications or interactions with other medication, EPO concentration, penetration of the blood-brain-barrier and/or route of application. The latter is restricted to systemic application. Here we hypothesize that EPO is neuroprotective in a rat model of acute subdural hemorrhage (ASDH) and that direct cortical application is a feasible route of application in this injury type. The subdural hematoma was surgically evacuated and EPO was applied directly onto the surface of the brain. We injected NaCl, 200, 2000 or 20,000IU EPO per rat i.v. at 15min post-ASDH (400μl autologous venous blood) or NaCl, 0.02, 0.2 or 2IU per rat onto the cortical surface after removal of the subdurally infused blood t at 70min post-ASDH. Arterial blood pressure (MAP), blood chemistry, intracranial pressure (ICP), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and brain tissue oxygen (ptiO2) were assessed during the first hour and lesion volume at 2days after ASDH. EPO 20,000IU/rat (i.v.) elevated ICP significantly. EPO at 200 and 2000IU reduced lesion volume from 38.2±0.6mm(3) (NaCl-treated group) to 28.5±0.9 and 22.2±1.3mm(3) (all p<0.05 vs. NaCl). Cortical application of 0.02IU EPO after ASDH evacuation reduced injury from 36.0±5.2 to 11.2±2.1mm(3) (p=0.007), whereas 0.2IU had no effect (38.0±9.0mm(3)). The highest dose of both application routes (i.v. 20,000IU; cortical 2IU) enlarged the ASDH-induced damage significantly to 46.5±1.7 and 67.9±10.4mm(3) (all p<0.05 vs. NaCl). In order to test whether Tween-20, a solvent of EPO formulation 'NeoRecomon®' was responsible for adverse effects two groups were treated with NaCl or Tween-20 after the evacuation of ASDH, but no difference in lesion volume was detected. In conclusion, EPO is neuroprotective in a model of ASDH in rats and was most efficacious at a very low dose in combination with subdural blood removal. High systemic and topically applied concentrations caused adverse effects on lesion size which were partially due to increased ICP. Thus, patients with traumatic ASDH could be treated with cortically applied EPO but with caution concerning concentration.

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Water-conducting faults and fractures were studied in the granite-hosted A¨ spo¨ Hard Rock Laboratory (SE Sweden). On a scale of decametres and larger, steeply dipping faults dominate and contain a variety of different fault rocks (mylonites, cataclasites, fault gouges). On a smaller scale, somewhat less regular fracture patterns were found. Conceptual models of the fault and fracture geometries and of the properties of rock types adjacent to fractures were derived and used as input for the modelling of in situ dipole tracer tests that were conducted in the framework of the Tracer Retention Understanding Experiment (TRUE-1) on a scale of metres. After the identification of all relevant transport and retardation processes, blind predictions of the breakthroughs of conservative to moderately sorbing tracers were calculated and then compared with the experimental data. This paper provides the geological basis and model calibration, while the predictive and inverse modelling work is the topic of the companion paper [J. Contam. Hydrol. 61 (2003) 175]. The TRUE-1 experimental volume is highly fractured and contains the same types of fault rocks and alterations as on the decametric scale. The experimental flow field was modelled on the basis of a 2D-streamtube formalism with an underlying homogeneous and isotropic transmissivity field. Tracer transport was modelled using the dual porosity medium approach, which is linked to the flow model by the flow porosity. Given the substantial pumping rates in the extraction borehole, the transport domain has a maximum width of a few centimetres only. It is concluded that both the uncertainty with regard to the length of individual fractures and the detailed geometry of the network along the flowpath between injection and extraction boreholes are not critical because flow is largely one-dimensional, whether through a single fracture or a network. Process identification and model calibration were based on a single uranine breakthrough (test PDT3), which clearly showed that matrix diffusion had to be included in the model even over the short experimental time scales, evidenced by a characteristic shape of the trailing edge of the breakthrough curve. Using the geological information and therefore considering limited matrix diffusion into a thin fault gouge horizon resulted in a good fit to the experiment. On the other hand, fresh granite was found not to interact noticeably with the tracers over the time scales of the experiments. While fracture-filling gouge materials are very efficient in retarding tracers over short periods of time (hours–days), their volume is very small and, with time progressing, retardation will be dominated by altered wall rock and, finally, by fresh granite. In such rocks, both porosity (and therefore the effective diffusion coefficient) and sorption Kds are more than one order of magnitude smaller compared to fault gouge, thus indicating that long-term retardation is expected to occur but to be less pronounced.

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In situ diffusion experiments are performed in geological formations at underground research laboratories to overcome the limitations of laboratory diffusion experiments and investigate scale effects. Tracer concentrations are monitored at the injection interval during the experiment (dilution data) and measured from host rock samples around the injection interval at the end of the experiment (overcoring data). Diffusion and sorption parameters are derived from the inverse numerical modeling of the measured tracer data. The identifiability and the uncertainties of tritium and Na-22(+) diffusion and sorption parameters are studied here by synthetic experiments having the same characteristics as the in situ diffusion and retention (DR) experiment performed on Opalinus Clay. Contrary to previous identifiability analyses of in situ diffusion experiments, which used either dilution or overcoring data at approximate locations, our analysis of the parameter identifiability relies simultaneously on dilution and overcoring data, accounts for the actual position of the overcoring samples in the claystone, uses realistic values of the standard deviation of the measurement errors, relies on model identification criteria to select the most appropriate hypothesis about the existence of a borehole disturbed zone and addresses the effect of errors in the location of the sampling profiles. The simultaneous use of dilution and overcoring data provides accurate parameter estimates in the presence of measurement errors, allows the identification of the right hypothesis about the borehole disturbed zone and diminishes other model uncertainties such as those caused by errors in the volume of the circulation system and the effective diffusion coefficient of the filter. The proper interpretation of the experiment requires the right hypothesis about the borehole disturbed zone. A wrong assumption leads to large estimation errors. The use of model identification criteria helps in the selection of the best model. Small errors in the depth of the overcoring samples lead to large parameter estimation errors. Therefore, attention should be paid to minimize the errors in positioning the depth of the samples. The results of the identifiability analysis do not depend on the particular realization of random numbers. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

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Reactive oxygen intermediates (ROI) contribute to neuronal injury in cerebral ischemia and trauma. In this study we explored the role of ROI in bacterial meningitis. Meningitis caused by group B streptococci in infant rats led to two distinct forms of neuronal injury, areas of necrosis in the cortex and neuronal loss in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, the latter showing evidence for apoptosis. Staining of brain sections with diaminobenzidine after perfusion with manganese buffer and measurement of lipid peroxidation products in brain homogenates both provided evidence that meningitis led to the generation of ROI. Treatment with the radical scavenger alpha-phenyl-tert-butyl nitrone (PBN) (100 mg/kg q8h i.p.) beginning at the time of infection completely abolished ROI detection and the increase in lipidperoxidation. Cerebral cortical perfusion was reduced in animals with meningitis to 37.5+/-21.0% of uninfected controls (P < 0.05), and PBN restored cortical perfusion to 72.0+/-8.1% of controls (P < 0.05 vs meningitis). PBN also completely prevented neuronal injury in the cortex and hippocampus, when started at the time of infection (P < 0.02), and significantly reduced both forms of injury, when started 18 h after infection together with antibiotics (P < 0.004 for cortex and P < 0.001 for hippocampus). These data indicate that the generation of ROI is a major contributor to cerebral ischemia and necrotic and apoptotic neuronal injury in this model of neonatal meningitis.

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Dopaminergic signals play a mathematically precise role in reward-related learning, and variations in dopaminergic signaling have been implicated in vulnerability to addiction. Here, we provide a detailed overview of the relationship between theoretical, mathematical, and experimental accounts of phasic dopamine signaling, with implications for the role of learning-related dopamine signaling in addiction and related disorders. We describe the theoretical and behavioral characteristics of model-free learning based on errors in the prediction of reward, including step-by-step explanations of the underlying equations. We then use recent insights from an animal model that highlights individual variation in learning during a Pavlovian conditioning paradigm to describe overlapping aspects of incentive salience attribution and model-free learning. We argue that this provides a computationally coherent account of some features of addiction.

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This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for midlatitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m−2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m−2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

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Air was sampled from the porous firn layer at the NEEM site in Northern Greenland. We use an ensemble of ten reference tracers of known atmospheric history to characterise the transport properties of the site. By analysing uncertainties in both data and the reference gas atmospheric histories, we can objectively assign weights to each of the gases used for the depth-diffusivity reconstruction. We define an objective root mean square criterion that is minimised in the model tuning procedure. Each tracer constrains the firn profile differently through its unique atmospheric history and free air diffusivity, making our multiple-tracer characterisation method a clear improvement over the commonly used single-tracer tuning. Six firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1σ Gaussian distribution. A comparison between two replicate boreholes drilled 64 m apart shows differences in measured mixing ratio profiles that exceed the experimental error. We find evidence that diffusivity does not vanish completely in the lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. The ice age- gas age difference (1 age) at the firn-ice transition is calculated to be 182+3−9 yr. We further present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we introduce diagnostic scenarios designed to probe specific aspects of the model physics. Our results show that there are major differences in the way the models handle advective transport. Furthermore, diffusive fractionation of isotopes in the firn is poorly constrained by the models, which has consequences for attempts to reconstruct the isotopic composition of trace gases back in time using firn air and ice core records.

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This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.