Spatial-temporal clustering of companion animal enteric syndrome: detection and investigation through the use of electronic medical records from participating private practices

SUMMARY There is interest in the potential of companion animal surveillance to provide data to improve pet health and to provide early warning of environmental hazards to people. We implemented a companion animal surveillance system in Calgary, Alberta and the surrounding communities. Informatics technologies automatically extracted electronic medical records from participating veterinary practices and identified cases of enteric syndrome in the warehoused records. The data were analysed using time-series analyses and a retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic. We identified a seasonal pattern of reports of occurrences of enteric syndromes in companion animals and four statistically significant clusters of enteric syndrome cases. The cases within each cluster were examined and information about the animals involved (species, age, sex), their vaccination history, possible exposure or risk behaviour history, information about disease severity, and the aetiological diagnosis was collected. We then assessed whether the cases within the cluster were unusual and if they represented an animal or public health threat. There was often insufficient information recorded in the medical record to characterize the clusters by aetiology or exposures. Space-time analysis of companion animal enteric syndrome cases found evidence of clustering. Collection of more epidemiologically relevant data would enhance the utility of practice-based companion animal surveillance.

Synthesis and incorporation into a-DNA of a novel conformationally constrained alpha-nucleoside analogue

We describe the synthesis and incorporation into alpha-DNA of a novel conformationally constrained alpha-nucleoside analogue. The carbohydrate part of this analogue was prepared in 4 steps from the known bicyclic precursor 1 via a stereospecific, intramolecular, Et 3B mediated radical addition to a keto-function as the key step. The thus obtained intermediate 4 was transformed stereoselectively into the corresponding alpha-nucleoside analogues 7 and 8 containing the bases adenine and thymine, and were further elaborated into the phosphoramidite building blocks 11 and 12 . Both building blocks were incorporated into alpha-oligodeoxynucleotides and their pairing behavior to parallel complementary DNA studied by UV-melting experiments. Single substitutions of alpha-deoxyribnucleoside units by the new analogues in the center of duplexes were found to be thermally destabilizing by only -0.8 to -3.1›C.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

The deglaciation history of the Simplon region (southern Swiss Alps) constrained by 10Be exposure dating of ice-molded bedrock surfaces

The deglaciation history of the Swiss Alps after the Last Glacial Maximum involved the decay of several ice domes and the subsequent disintegration of valley glaciers at high altitude. Here we use bedrock exposure dating to reconstruct the temporal and spatial pattern of ice retreat at the Simplon Pass (altitude: ∼2000 m) located 40 km southwest of the ‘Rhône ice dome’. Eleven 10Be exposure ages from glacially polished quartz veins and ice-molded bedrock surfaces cluster tightly between 13.5 ± 0.6 ka and 15.4 ± 0.6 ka (internal errors) indicating that the Simplon Pass depression became ice-free at 14.1 ± 0.4 ka (external error of mean age). This age constraint is interpreted to record the melting of the high valley glaciers in the Simplon Pass region during the warm Bølling–Allerød interstadial shortly after the Oldest Dryas stadial. Two bedrock samples collected a few hundred meters above the pass depression yield older 10Be ages of 17.8 ± 0.6 ka and 18.0 ± 0.6 ka. These ages likely reflect the initial downwasting of the Rhône ice dome and the termination of the ice transfluence from the ice dome across the Simplon Pass toward the southern foreland. There, the retreat of the piedmont glacier in Val d’Ossola was roughly synchronous with the decay of the Rhône ice dome in the interior of the mountain belt, as shown by 10Be ages of 17.7 ± 0.9 ka and 16.1 ± 0.6 ka for a whaleback at ∼500 m elevation near Montecrestese in northern Italy. In combination with well-dated paleoclimate records derived from lake sediments, our new age data suggest that during the deglaciation of the European Alps the decay of ice domes was approximately synchronous with the retreat of piedmont glaciers in the foreland and was followed by the melting of high-altitude valley glaciers after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød, when mean annual temperatures rose rapidly by ∼3 °C.

Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling with Project Management Information Systems

Most commercial project management software packages include planning methods to devise schedules for resource-constrained projects. As it is proprietary information of the software vendors which planning methods are implemented, the question arises how the software packages differ in quality with respect to their resource-allocation capabilities. We experimentally evaluate the resource-allocation capabilities of eight recent software packages by using 1,560 instances with 30, 60, and 120 activities of the well-known PSPLIB library. In some of the analyzed packages, the user may influence the resource allocation by means of multi-level priority rules, whereas in other packages, only few options can be chosen. We study the impact of various complexity parameters and priority rules on the project duration obtained by the software packages. The results indicate that the resource-allocation capabilities of these packages differ significantly. In general, the relative gap between the packages gets larger with increasing resource scarcity and with increasing number of activities. Moreover, the selection of the priority rule has a considerable impact on the project duration. Surprisingly, when selecting a priority rule in the packages where it is possible, both the mean and the variance of the project duration are in general worse than for the packages which do not offer the selection of a priority rule.

The Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem with Work-Content Constraints

For executing the activities of a project, one or several resources are required, which are in general scarce. Many resource-allocation methods assume that the usage of these resources by an activity is constant during execution; in practice, however, the project manager may vary resource usage by individual activities over time within prescribed bounds. This variation gives rise to the project scheduling problem which consists in allocating the scarce resources to the project activities over time such that the project duration is minimized, the total number of resource units allocated equals the prescribed work content of each activity, and precedence and various work-content-related constraints are met.

Characterization of Chelonus inanitus polydnavirus segments: sequences and analysis, excision site and demonstration of clustering

Polydnaviruses (genera Ichnovirus and Bracovirus) have a segmented genome of circular double-stranded DNA molecules, replicate in the ovary of parasitic wasps and are essential for successful parasitism of the host. Here we show the first detailed analysis of various segments of a bracovirus, the Chelonus inanitus virus (CiV). Four segments were sequenced and two of them, CiV12 and CiV14, were found to be closely related while CiV14.5 and CiV16.8 were unrelated. CiV12, CiV14.5 and CiV16.8 are unique while CiV14 occurs also nested in another larger segment. All four segments are predicted to contain genes and predictions could be substantiated in most cases. Comparison with databases revealed no significant similarities at either the nucleotide or amino acid level. Inverted repeats with identities between 77% and 92% and lengths between 26 bp and 100 bp were found on all segments outside of predicted genes. Hybridization experiments indicate that CiV12 and CiV14 are both flanked by other virus segments, suggesting that proviral CiV segments are clustered in the genome of the wasp. The integration/excision site of CiV14 was analysed and compared to that of CiV12. On both termini of proviral CiV12 and CiV14 as well as in the excised circular molecule and the rejoined DNA a very similar repeat of 14 bp was found. A model to illustrate where the terminal repeats might recombine to yield the circular molecule is presented. Excision of CiV12 and CiV14 is restricted to the female and sets in at a very specific time-point in pupal-adult development.

Effects of Anxiety on Anticipation and Visual Search in Dynamic, Time-Constrained Situations

We tested the predictions of Attentional Control Theory (ACT) by examining how anxiety affects visual search strategies, performance efficiency, and performance effectiveness using a dynamic, temporal-constrained anticipation task. Higher and lower skilled players viewed soccer situations under 2 task constraints (near vs. far situation) and were tested under high (HA) and low (LA) anxiety conditions. Response accuracy (effectiveness) and response time, perceived mental effort, and eye-movements (all efficiency) were recorded. A significant increase in anxiety was evidenced by higher state anxiety ratings on the MRF-L scale. Increased anxiety led to decreased performance efficiency because response times and mental effort increased for both skill groups whereas response accuracy did not differ. Anxiety influenced search strategies, with higher skilled players showing a decrease in number of fixation locations for far situations under HA compared with LA condition when compared with lower skilled players. Findings provide support for ACT with anxiety impairing processing efficiency and, potentially, top-down attentional control across different task constraints.

On an Application of Microsoft Excel’s Evolutionary Solver to the Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem RCPSP

The Solver Add-in of Microsoft Excel is widely used in courses on Operations Research and in industrial applications. Since the 2010 version of Microsoft Excel, the Solver Add-in comprises a so-called evolutionary solver. We analyze how this metaheuristic can be applied to the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). We present an implementation of a schedule-generation scheme in a spreadsheet, which combined with the evolutionary solver can be used for devising good feasible schedules. Our computational results indicate that using this approach, non-trivial instances of the RCPSP can be (approximately) solved to optimality.