67 resultados para Uncertainty propagation


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The role of the DNA phosphodiester backbone in the transfer of melting cooperativity between two helical domains was experimentally addressed with a helix-bulge-helix DNA model, in which the bulge consisted of a varying number of either conformationally flexible propanediol or conformationally constrained bicyclic anucleosidic phosphodiester backbone units. We found that structural communication between two double helical domains is transferred along the DNA backbone over the equivalent of ca. 12-20 backbone units, depending on whether there is a symmetric or asymmetric distribution of the anucleosidic units on both strands. We observed that extension of anucleosidic units on one strand only suffices to disrupt cooperativity transfer in a similar way as if extension occurs on both strands, indicating that the length of the longest anucleosidic inset determines cooperativity transfer. Furthermore, conformational rigidity of the sugar unit increases the distance of coopertivity transfer along the phosphodiester backbone. This is especially the case when the units are asymmetrically distributed in both strands

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BACKGROUND Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a noninvasive breast lesion with uncertain risk for invasive progression. Usual care (UC) for DCIS consists of treatment upon diagnosis, thus potentially overtreating patients with low propensity for progression. One strategy to reduce overtreatment is active surveillance (AS), whereby DCIS is treated only upon detection of invasive disease. Our goal was to perform a quantitative evaluation of outcomes following an AS strategy for DCIS. METHODS Age-stratified, 10-year disease-specific cumulative mortality (DSCM) for AS was calculated using a computational risk projection model based upon published estimates for natural history parameters, and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for outcomes. AS projections were compared with the DSCM for patients who received UC. To quantify the propagation of parameter uncertainty, a 95% projection range (PR) was computed, and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS Under the assumption that AS cannot outperform UC, the projected median differences in 10-year DSCM between AS and UC when diagnosed at ages 40, 55, and 70 years were 2.6% (PR = 1.4%-5.1%), 1.5% (PR = 0.5%-3.5%), and 0.6% (PR = 0.0%-2.4), respectively. Corresponding median numbers of patients needed to treat to avert one breast cancer death were 38.3 (PR = 19.7-69.9), 67.3 (PR = 28.7-211.4), and 157.2 (PR = 41.1-3872.8), respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed that the parameter with greatest impact on DSCM was the probability of understaging invasive cancer at diagnosis. CONCLUSION AS could be a viable management strategy for carefully selected DCIS patients, particularly among older age groups and those with substantial competing mortality risks. The effectiveness of AS could be markedly improved by reducing the rate of understaging.

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Energy shocks like the Fukushima accident can have important political consequences. This article examines their impact on collaboration patterns between collective actors in policy processes. It argues that external shocks create both behavioral uncertainty, meaning that actors do not know about other actors' preferences, and policy uncertainty on the choice and consequences of policy instruments. The context of uncertainty interacts with classical drivers of actor collaboration in policy processes. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising interview and survey data on political actors in two subsequent policy processes in Switzerland and Exponential Random Graph Models for network data. Results first show that under uncertainty, collaboration of actors in policy processes is less based on similar preferences than in stable contexts, but trust and knowledge of other actors are more important. Second, under uncertainty, scientific actors are not preferred collaboration partners.

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Scoping behavioral variations to dynamic extents is useful to support non-functional concerns that otherwise result in cross-cutting code. Unfortunately, such forms of scoping are difficult to obtain with traditional reflection or aspects. We propose delegation proxies, a dynamic proxy model that supports behavioral intercession through the interception of various interpretation operations. Delegation proxies permit different behavioral variations to be easily composed together. We show how delegation proxies enable behavioral variations that can propagate to dynamic extents. We demonstrate our approach with examples of behavioral variations scoped to dynamic extents that help simplify code related to safety, reliability, and monitoring.