External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

The CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) for prognosis of hospitalised cirrhotic patients without acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS Cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation frequently develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which is associated with high mortality rates. Recently, a specific score for these patients has been developed using the CANONIC study database. The aims of this study were to develop and validate the CLIF-C AD score, a specific prognostic score for hospitalised cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation (AD), but without ACLF, and to compare this with the Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-Na scores. METHODS The derivation set included 1016 CANONIC study patients without ACLF. Proportional hazards models considering liver transplantation as a competing risk were used to identify score parameters. Estimated coefficients were used as relative weights to compute the CLIF-C ADs. External validation was performed in 225 cirrhotic AD patients. CLIF-C ADs was also tested for sequential use. RESULTS Age, serum sodium, white-cell count, creatinine and INR were selected as the best predictors of mortality. The C-index for prediction of mortality was better for CLIF-C ADs compared with Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-Nas at predicting 3- and 12-month mortality in the derivation, internal validation and the external dataset. CLIF-C ADs improved in its ability to predict 3-month mortality using data from days 2, 3-7, and 8-15 (C-index: 0.72, 0.75, and 0.77 respectively). CONCLUSIONS The new CLIF-C ADs is more accurate than other liver scores in predicting prognosis in hospitalised cirrhotic patients without ACLF. CLIF-C ADs therefore may be used to identify a high-risk cohort for intensive management and a low-risk group that may be discharged early.

Complex syntax in autistic spectrum disorders: A study with relative clauses

Background The few studies that have evaluated syntax in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have yielded conflicting findings: some suggest that once matched on mental age, ASD and typically developing controls do not differ for grammar, while others report that morphosyntactic deficits are independent of cognitive skills in ASD. There is a need for a better understanding of syntax in ASD and its relation to, or dissociation from, nonverbal abilities. Aims Syntax in ASD was assessed by evaluating subject and object relative clause comprehension in adolescents and adults diagnosed with ASD with a performance IQ within the normal range, and with or without a history of language delay. Methods & Procedures Twenty-eight participants with ASD (mean age 21.8) and 28 age-matched controls (mean age 22.07) were required to point to a character designated by relative clauses that varied in syntactic complexity. Outcomes & Results Scores indicate that participants with ASD regardless of the language development history perform significantly worse than age-matched controls with object relative clauses. In addition, participants with ASD with a history of language delay (diagnosed with high-functioning autism in the DSM-IV-TR) perform worse on subject relatives than ASD participants without language delay (diagnosed with Asperger syndrome in the DSM-IV-TR), suggesting that these two groups do not have equivalent linguistic abilities. Performance IQ has a positive impact on the success of the task for the population with ASD. Conclusions & Implications This study reveals subtle grammatical difficulties remaining in adult individuals with ASD within normal IQ range as compared with age-matched peers. Even in the absence of a history of language delay in childhood, the results suggest that a slight deficit may nevertheless be present and go undetected by standardized language assessments. Both groups with and without language delay have a similar global performance on relative clause comprehension; however, the study also indicates that the participants with reported language delay show more difficulty with subject relatives than the participants without language delay, suggesting the presence of differences in linguistic abilities between these subgroups of ASD.

Finite volume effects in chiral perturbation theory with twisted boundary conditions

We study the effects of a finite cubic volume with twisted boundary conditions on pseudoscalar mesons. We apply Chiral Perturbation Theory in the p-regime and introduce the twist by means of a constant vector field. The corrections of masses, decay constants, pseudoscalar coupling constants and form factors are calculated at next-to-leading order. We detail the derivations and compare with results available in the literature. In some case there is disagreement due to a different treatment of new extra terms generated from the breaking of the cubic invariance. We advocate to treat such terms as renormalization terms of the twisting angles and reabsorb them in the on-shell conditions. We confirm that the corrections of masses, decay constants, pseudoscalar coupling constants are related by means of chiral Ward identities. Furthermore, we show that the matrix elements of the scalar (resp. vector) form factor satisfies the Feynman–Hellman Theorem (resp. the Ward–Takahashi identity). To show the Ward–Takahashi identity we construct an effective field theory for charged pions which is invariant under electromagnetic gauge transformations and which reproduces the results obtained with Chiral Perturbation Theory at a vanishing momentum transfer. This generalizes considerations previously published for periodic boundary conditions to twisted boundary conditions. Another method to estimate the corrections in finite volume are asymptotic formulae. Asymptotic formulae were introduced by Lüscher and relate the corrections of a given physical quantity to an integral of a specific amplitude, evaluated in infinite volume. Here, we revise the original derivation of Lüscher and generalize it to finite volume with twisted boundary conditions. In some cases, the derivation involves complications due to extra terms generated from the breaking of the cubic invariance. We isolate such terms and treat them as renormalization terms just as done before. In that way, we derive asymptotic formulae for masses, decay constants, pseudoscalar coupling constants and scalar form factors. At the same time, we derive also asymptotic formulae for renormalization terms. We apply all these formulae in combination with Chiral Perturbation Theory and estimate the corrections beyond next-to-leading order. We show that asymptotic formulae for masses, decay constants, pseudoscalar coupling constants are related by means of chiral Ward identities. A similar relation connects in an independent way asymptotic formulae for renormalization terms. We check these relations for charged pions through a direct calculation. To conclude, a numerical analysis quantifies the importance of finite volume corrections at next-to-leading order and beyond. We perform a generic Analysis and illustrate two possible applications to real simulations.

Challenges in Collating Spirometry Reference Data for South-Asian Children: An Observational Study.

METHODS Spirometry datasets from South-Asian children were collated from four centres in India and five within the UK. Records with transcription errors, missing values for height or spirometry, and implausible values were excluded(n = 110). RESULTS Following exclusions, cross-sectional data were available from 8,124 children (56.3% male; 5-17 years). When compared with GLI-predicted values from White Europeans, forced expired volume in 1s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in South-Asian children were on average 15% lower, ranging from 4-19% between centres. By contrast, proportional reductions in FEV1 and FVC within all but two datasets meant that the FEV1/FVC ratio remained independent of ethnicity. The 'GLI-Other' equation fitted data from North India reasonably well while 'GLI-Black' equations provided a better approximation for South-Asian data than the 'GLI-White' equation. However, marked discrepancies in the mean lung function z-scores between centres especially when examined according to socio-economic conditions precluded derivation of a single South-Asian GLI-adjustment. CONCLUSION Until improved and more robust prediction equations can be derived, we recommend the use of 'GLI-Black' equations for interpreting most South-Asian data, although 'GLI-Other' may be more appropriate for North Indian data. Prospective data collection using standardised protocols to explore potential sources of variation due to socio-economic circumstances, secular changes in growth/predictors of lung function and ethnicities within the South-Asian classification are urgently required.