Data quality of animal health records on Swiss dairy farms

High-quality data are essential for veterinary surveillance systems, and their quality can be affected by the source and the method of collection. Data recorded on farms could provide detailed information about the health of a population of animals, but the accuracy of the data recorded by farmers is uncertain. The aims of this study were to evaluate the quality of the data on animal health recorded on 97 Swiss dairy farms, to compare the quality of the data obtained by different recording systems, and to obtain baseline data on the health of the animals on the 97 farms. Data on animal health were collected from the farms for a year. Their quality was evaluated by assessing the completeness and accuracy of the recorded information, and by comparing farmers' and veterinarians' records. The quality of the data provided by the farmers was satisfactory, although electronic recording systems made it easier to trace the animals treated. The farmers tended to record more health-related events than the veterinarians, although this varied with the event considered, and some events were recorded only by the veterinarians. The farmers' attitude towards data collection was positive. Factors such as motivation, feedback, training, and simplicity and standardisation of data collection were important because they influenced the quality of the data.

Impact of Switching From Zidovudine to Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate on Bone Mineral Density and Markers of Bone Metabolism in Virologically Suppressed HIV-1 Infected Patients; A Substudy of the PREPARE Study

Context: In virologically suppressed, antiretroviral-treated patients, the effect of switching to tenofovir (TDF) on bone biomarkers compared to patients remaining on stable antiretroviral therapy is unknown. Methods: We examined bone biomarkers (osteocalcin [OC], procollagen type 1 amino-terminal propeptide, and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen) and bone mineral density (BMD) over 48 weeks in virologically suppressed patients (HIV RNA < 50 copies/ml) randomized to switch to TDF/emtricitabine (FTC) or remain on first-line zidovudine (AZT)/lamivudine (3TC). PTH was also measured. Between-group differences in bone biomarkers and associations between change in bone biomarkers and BMD measures were assessed by Student's t tests, Pearson correlation, and multivariable linear regression, respectively. All data are expressed as mean (SD), unless otherwise specified. Results: Of 53 subjects (aged 46.0 y; 84.9% male; 75.5% Caucasian), 29 switched to TDF/FTC. There were reductions in total hip and lumbar spine BMD in those switching to TDF/FTC (total hip, TDF/FTC, −1.73 (2.76)% vs AZT/3TC, −0.39 (2.41)%; between-group P = .07; lumbar spine, TDF/FTC, −1.50 (3.49)% vs AZT/3TC, +0.25 (2.82)%; between-group P = .06), but they did not reach statistical significance. Greater declines in lumbar spine BMD correlated with greater increases in OC (r = −0.28; P = .05). The effect of TDF/FTC on bone biomarkers remained significant when adjusted for baseline biomarker levels, gender, and ethnicity. There was no difference in change in PTH levels over 48 weeks between treatment groups (between-group P = .23). All biomarkers increased significantly from weeks 0 to 48 in the switch group, with no significant change in those remaining on AZT/3TC (between-group, all biomarkers, P < .0001). Conclusion: A switch to TDF/FTC compared to remaining on a stable regimen is associated with increases in bone turnover that correlate with reductions in BMD, suggesting that TDF exposure directly affects bone metabolism in vivo.

Are great Cascadia earthquakes recorded in the sedimentary records from small forearc lakes?

Here we investigate sedimentary records from four small inland lakes located in the southern Cascadia forearc region for evidence of earthquakes. Three of these lakes are in the Klamath Mountains near the Oregon–California border, and one is in the central Oregon Coast range. The sedimentary sequences recovered from these lakes are composed of normal lake sediment interbedded with disturbance event layers. The thickest of these layers are graded, and appear to be turbidites or linked debrites (turbidites with a basal debris-flow deposit), suggesting rapid deposition. Variations in particle size and organic content of these layers are reflected in the density and magnetic susceptibility data. The frequency and timing of these events, based on radiocarbon ages from detrital organics, is similar to the offshore seismogenic turbidite record from trench and slope basin cores along the Cascadia margin. Stratigraphic correlation of these anomalous deposits based on radiocarbon ages, down-core density, and magnetic susceptibility data between lake and offshore records suggest synchronous triggering. The areal extent and multiple depositional environments over which these events appear to correlate suggest that these deposits were most likely caused by shaking during great Cascadia earthquakes.

Net accumulation rates derived from ice core stable isotope records of Pío XI glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield

Pío XI, the largest glacier of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, reached its neoglacial maximum extent in 1994 and is one of the few glaciers in that area which is not retreating. In view of the recent warming it is important to understand glacier responses to climate changes. Due to its remoteness and the harsh conditions in Patagonia, no systematic mass balance studies have been performed. In this study we derived net accumulation rates for the period 2000–2006 from a 50 m (33.2 4 m weq) ice core collected in the accumulation area of Pío XI (2600 m a.s.l., 49°16'40"S, 73°21'14"W). Borehole temperatures indicate near temperate ice, but the average melt percent is only 16 ± 14%. Records of stable isotopes are well preserved and were used for identification of annual layers. Net accumulation rates range from 3.4–7.1 water equivalent (m weq) with an average of 5.8 m weq, comparable to precipitation amounts at the Chilean coast, but not as high as expected for the Icefield. Ice core stable isotope data correlate well with upper air temperatures and may be used as temperature proxy.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

A new method to facilitate valid and consistent grading cardiac events in childhood cancer survivors using medical records

BACKGROUND Cardiac events (CEs) are among the most serious late effects following childhood cancer treatment. To establish accurate risk estimates for the occurrence of CEs it is essential that they are graded in a valid and consistent manner, especially for international studies. We therefore developed a data-extraction form and a set of flowcharts to grade CEs and tested the validity and consistency of this approach in a series of patients. METHODS The Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0 and 4.0 were used to define the CEs. Forty patients were randomly selected from a cohort of 72 subjects with known CEs that had been graded by a physician for an earlier study. To establish whether the new method was valid for appropriate grading, a non-physician graded the CEs by using the new method. To evaluate consistency of the grading, the same charts were graded again by two other non-physicians, one with receiving brief introduction and one with receiving extensive training on the new method. We calculated weighted Kappa statistics to quantify inter-observer agreement. RESULTS The inter-observer agreement was 0.92 (95% CI 0.80-1.00) for validity, and 0.88 (0.79-0.98) and 0.99 (0.96-1.00) for consistency with the outcome assessors who had the brief introduction and the extensive training, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The newly developed standardized method to grade CEs using data from medical records has shown excellent validity and consistency. The study showed that the method can be correctly applied by researchers without a medical background, provided that they receive adequate training.

Precipitation isoscape of high reliefs: interpolation scheme designed and tested for monthly resolved precipitation oxygen isotope records of an Alpine domain

Stable oxygen isotope composition of atmospheric precipitation (δ18Op) was scrutinized from 39 stations distributed over Switzerland and its border zone. Monthly amount-weighted δ18Op values averaged over the 1995–2000 period showed the expected strong linear altitude dependence (−0.15 to −0.22‰ per 100 m) only during the summer season (May–September). Steeper gradients (~ −0.56 to −0.60‰ per 100 m) were observed for winter months over a low elevation belt, while hardly any altitudinal difference was seen for high elevation stations. This dichotomous pattern could be explained by the characteristically shallower vertical atmospheric mixing height during winter season and provides empirical evidence for recently simulated effects of stratified atmospheric flow on orographic precipitation isotopic ratios. This helps explain "anomalous" deflected altitudinal water isotope profiles reported from many other high relief regions. Grids and isotope distribution maps of the monthly δ18Op have been calculated over the study region for 1995–1996. The adopted interpolation method took into account both the variable mixing heights and the seasonal difference in the isotopic lapse rate and combined them with residual kriging. The presented data set allows a point estimation of δ18Op with monthly resolution. According to the test calculations executed on subsets, this biannual data set can be extended back to 1992 with maintained fidelity and, with a reduced station subset, even back to 1983 at the expense of faded reliability of the derived δ18Op estimates, mainly in the eastern part of Switzerland. Before 1983, reliable results can only be expected for the Swiss Plateau since important stations representing eastern and south-western Switzerland were not yet in operation.

Contrasting long-term records of biomass burning in wet and dry savannas of equatorial East Africa

Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Representativeness and seasonality of major ion records derived from NEEM firn cores

The seasonal and annual representativeness of ionic aerosol proxies (among others, calcium, sodium, ammonium and nitrate) in various firn cores in the vicinity of the NEEM drill site in northwest Greenland have been assessed. Seasonal representativeness is very high as one core explains more than 60 % of the variability within the area. The inter-annual representativeness, however, can be substantially lower (depending on the species) making replicate coring indispensable to derive the atmospheric variability of aerosol species. A single core at the NEEM site records only 30 % of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in some species, while five replicate cores are already needed to cover approximately 70 % of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in all species. The spatial representativeness is very high within 60 cm, rapidly decorrelates within 10 m but does not diminish further within 3 km. We attribute this to wind reworking of the snow pack leading to sastrugi formation. Due to the high resolution and seasonal representativeness of the records we can derive accurate seasonalities of the measured species for modern (AD 1990–2010) times as well as for pre-industrial (AD 1623–1750) times. Sodium and calcium show similar seasonality (peaking in February and March respectively) for modern and pre-industrial times, whereas ammonium and nitrate are influenced by anthro pogenic activities. Nitrate and ammonium both peak in May during modern times, whereas during pre-industrial times ammonium peaked during July–August and nitrate during June–July.

Stacking of discontinuous regional palaeoclimate records: Chironomid-based summer temperatures from the Alpine region

Since multi-site reconstructions are less affected by site-specific climatic effects and artefacts, regional palaeotemperature reconstructions based on a number of sites can provide more robust estimates of centennial- to millennial-scale temperature trends than individual, site-specific records. Furthermore, reconstructions based on multiple records are necessary for developing continuous climate records over time scales longer than covered by individual sequences. Here, we present a procedure for developing such reconstructions based on relatively short (centuries to millennia), discontinuously sampled records as are typically developed when using biotic proxies in lake sediments for temperature reconstruction. The approach includes an altitudinal correction of temperatures, an interpolation of individual records to equal time intervals, a stacking procedure for sections of the interval of interest that have the same records available, as well as a splicing procedure to link the individual stacked records into a continuous reconstruction. Variations in the final, stacked and spliced reconstruction are driven by variations in the individual records, whereas the absolute temperature values are determined by the stacked segment based on the largest number of records. With numerical simulations based on the NGRIP δ18O record, we demonstrate that the interpolation and stacking procedure provides an approximation of a smoothed palaeoclimate record if based on a sufficient number of discontinuously sampled records. Finally, we provide an example of a stacked and spliced palaeotemperature reconstruction 15000–90 calibrated 14C yr BP based on six chironomid records from the northern and central Swiss Alps and eastern France to discuss the potential and limitations of this approach.

A compilation of Western European terrestrial records 60–8 ka BP: towards an understanding of latitudinal climatic gradients

Terrestrial records of past climatic conditions, such as lake sediments and speleothems, provide data of great importance for understanding environmental changes. However, unlike marine and ice core records, terrestrial palaeodata are often not available in databases or in a format that is easily accessible to the non-specialist. As a consequence, many excellent terrestrial records are unknown to the broader palaeoclimate community and are not included in compilations, comparisons, or modelling exercises. Here we present a compilation of Western European terrestrial palaeo-records covering, entirely or partially, the 60–8-ka INTIMATE time period. The compilation contains 56 natural archives, including lake records, speleothems, ice cores, and terrestrial proxies in marine records. The compilation is limited to include records of high temporal resolution and/or records that provide climate proxies or quantitative reconstructions of environmental parameters, such as temperature or precipitation, and that are of relevance and interest to a broader community. We briefly review the different types of terrestrial archives, their respective proxies, their interpretation and their application for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. We also discuss the importance of independent chronologies and the issue of record synchronization. The aim of this exercise is to provide the wider palaeo-community with a consistent compilation of high-quality terrestrial records, to facilitate model-data comparisons, and to identify key areas of interest for future investigations. We use the compilation to investigate Western European latitudinal climate gradients during the deglacial period and, despite of poorly constrained chronologies for the older records, we summarize the main results obtained from NW and SW European terrestrial records before the LGM.