Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

Microvascular response to metabolic and pressure challenge in the human coronary circulation

In vivo observations of microcirculatory behavior during autoregulation and adaptation to varying myocardial oxygen demand are scarce in the human coronary system. This study assessed microvascular reactions to controlled metabolic and pressure provocation [bicycle exercise and external counterpulsation (ECP)]. In 20 healthy subjects, quantitative myocardial contrast echocardiography and arterial applanation tonometry were performed during increasing ECP levels, as well as before and during bicycle exercise. Myocardial blood flow (MBF; ml·min(-1)·g(-1)), the relative blood volume (rBV; ml/ml), the coronary vascular resistance index (CVRI; dyn·s·cm(-5)/g), the pressure-work index (PWI), and the pressure-rate product (mmHg/min) were assessed. MBF remained unchanged during ECP (1.08 ± 0.44 at baseline to 0.92 ± 0.38 at high-level ECP). Bicycle exercise led to an increase in MBF from 1.03 ± 0.39 to 3.42 ± 1.11 (P < 0.001). The rBV remained unchanged during ECP, whereas it increased under exercise from 0.13 ± 0.033 to 0.22 ± 0.07 (P < 0.001). The CVRI showed a marked increase under ECP from 7.40 ± 3.38 to 11.05 ± 5.43 and significantly dropped under exercise from 7.40 ± 2.78 to 2.21 ± 0.87 (both P < 0.001). There was a significant correlation between PWI and MBF in the pooled exercise data (slope: +0.162). During ECP, the relationship remained similar (slope: +0.153). Whereas physical exercise decreases coronary vascular resistance and induces considerable functional capillary recruitment, diastolic pressure transients up to 140 mmHg trigger arteriolar vasoconstriction, keeping MBF and functional capillary density constant. Demand-supply matching was maintained over the entire ECP pressure range.

Reciprocal relationship between left ventricular filling pressure and the recruitable human coronary collateral circulation

AIMS The aim of our study in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and present, or absent, myocardial ischaemia during coronary occlusion was to test whether (i) left ventricular (LV) filling pressure is influenced by the collateral circulation and, on the other hand, that (ii) its resistance to flow is directly associated with LV filling pressure. METHODS AND RESULTS In 50 patients with CAD, the following parameters were obtained before and during a 60 s balloon occlusion: LV, aortic (Pao) and coronary pressure (Poccl), flow velocity (Voccl), central venous pressure (CVP), and coronary flow velocity after coronary angioplasty (V(Ø-occl)). The following variables were determined and analysed at 10 s intervals during occlusion, and at 60 s of occlusion: LV end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP), velocity-derived (CFIv) and pressure-derived collateral flow index (CFIp), coronary collateral (Rcoll), and peripheral resistance index to flow (Rperiph). Patients with ECG signs of ischaemia during coronary occlusion (insufficient collaterals, n = 33) had higher values of LVEDP over the entire course of occlusion than those without ECG signs of ischaemia during occlusion (sufficient collaterals, n = 17). Despite no ischaemia in the latter, there was an increase in LVEDP from 20 to 60 s of occlusion. In patients with insufficient collaterals, CFIv decreased and CFIp increased during occlusion. Beyond an occlusive LVEDP > 27 mmHg, Rcoll and Rperiph increased as a function of LVEDP. CONCLUSION Recruitable collaterals are reciprocally tied to LV filling pressure during occlusion. If poorly developed, they affect it via myocardial ischaemia; if well grown, LV filling pressure still increases gradually during occlusion despite the absence of ischaemia indicating transmission of collateral perfusion pressure to the LV. With low, but not high, collateral flow, resistance to collateral as well as coronary peripheral flow is related to LV filling pressure in the high range.

Rezension zu: Pathophysiology of coronary collateral circulation in the human

The functional relevance of coronary collaterals in humans has yet to be fully explored. Several studies demonstrated a protective role of collaterals in patients with coronary artery disease. On the other hand, negative aspects of well-developed coronary collaterals have been reported, e.g. a higher rate of restenosis following coronary angioplasty, or a redistribution of blood via collaterals away from the myocardial area in need towards normally perfused areas (coronary steal). In the past, the coronary collateral circulation has been assessed only qualitatively, using visual angiographic or nuclear imaging methods. With the recent advent of intracoronary Doppler and pressure-transducers, quantitative assessment of functional parameters of the coronary circulation has become feasible. This article reviews ongoing research in the field of coronary collaterals in humans, concerning their exact determination, the positive and negative aspects of their structure as well as their functional aspects.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps – solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from C-14 and Be-10 records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.