100 resultados para Simulated temperature and precipitation change


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Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) of salmonids, caused by Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, can lead to high mortalities at elevated water temperature. We evaluated the hypothesis that this mortality is caused by increasing parasite intensity. T. bryosalmonae-infected rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were reared at different water temperatures and changes in parasite concentrations in the kidney were compared to cumulative mortalities. Results of parasite quantification by a newly developed real-time PCR agreed with the number of parasites detected by immunohistochemistry, except for very low or very high parasite loads because of heterogenous distribution of the parasites in the kidney. Two experiments were performed, where fish were exposed to temperatures of 12, 14, 16, 18 or 19 degrees C after an initial exposure to an infectious environment at 12-16 degrees C resulting in 100% prevalence of infected fish after 5 to 14 days of exposure. While mortalities differed significantly between all investigated water temperatures, significant differences in final parasite loads were only found between fish kept at 12 degrees C and all other groups. Differences in parasite load between fish kept at 14 degrees C to 19 degrees C were not significant. These findings provide evidence that there is no direct link between parasite intensity and fish mortality.

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Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is a temperature-dependent disease caused by the myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae. It is an emerging threat to wild brown trout Salmo trutta fario populations in Switzerland. Here we examined (1) how PKD prevalence and pathology in young-of-the-year (YOY) brown trout relate to water temperature, (2) whether wild brown trout can completely recover from T. bryosalmonae-induced renal lesions and eliminate T. bryo - salmonae over the winter months, and (3) whether this rate and/or extent of the recovery is influenced by concurrent infection. A longitudinal field study on a wild brown trout cohort was conducted over 16 mo. YOY and age 1+ fish were sampled from 7 different field sites with various temperature regimes, and monitored for infection with T. bryosalmonae and the nematode Raphidascaris acus. T. bryosamonae was detectable in brown trout YOY from all sampling sites, with similar renal pathology, independent of water temperature. During winter months, recovery was mainly influenced by the presence or absence of concurrent infection with R. acus larvae. While brown trout without R. acus regenerated completely, concurrently infected brown trout showed incomplete recovery, with chronic renal lesions and incomplete translocation of T. bryosalmonae from the renal interstitium into the tubular lumen. Water temperature seemed to influence complete excretion of T. bryosalmonae, with spores remaining in trout from summer-warm rivers, but absent in trout from summer-cool rivers. In the following summer months, we found PKD infections in 1+ brown trout from all investigated river sites. The pathological lesions indicated a reinfection rather than a proliferation of remaining T. bryosalmonae. However, disease prevalence in 1+ trout was lower than in YOY.

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External forcing and internal dynamics result in climate system variability ranging from sub-daily weather to multi-centennial trends and beyond1, 2. State-of-the-art palaeoclimatic methods routinely use hydroclimatic proxies to reconstruct temperature (for example, refs 3, 4), possibly blurring differences in the variability continuum of temperature and precipitation before the instrumental period. Here, we assess the spectral characteristics of temperature and precipitation fluctuations in observations, model simulations and proxy records across the globe. We find that whereas an ensemble of different general circulation models represents patterns captured in instrumental measurements, such as land–ocean contrasts and enhanced low-frequency tropical variability, the tree-ring-dominated proxy collection does not. The observed dominance of inter-annual precipitation fluctuations is not reflected in the annually resolved hydroclimatic proxy records. Likewise, temperature-sensitive proxies overestimate, on average, the ratio of low- to high-frequency variability. These spectral biases in the proxy records seem to propagate into multi-proxy climate reconstructions for which we observe an overestimation of low-frequency signals. Thus, a proper representation of the high- to low-frequency spectrum in proxy records is needed to reduce uncertainties in climate reconstruction efforts.

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Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

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SUMMARY A recent systematic review demonstrated that, overall, orthodontic treatment might result in a small worsening of periodontal status. The aim of this retrospective study was to test the hypothesis that a change of mandibular incisor inclination promotes development of labial gingival recessions. One hundred and seventy-nine subjects who met the following inclusion criteria were selected: age 11-14 years at start of orthodontic treatment (TS), bonded retainer placed immediately after treatment (T₀), dental casts and lateral cephalograms available pre-treatment (TS), post-treatment (T₀), 2 years post-treatment (T₂), and 5 years post-treatment (T₅). Depending on the change of lower incisor inclination during treatment (ΔInc_Incl), the sample was divided into three groups: Retro (N = 34; ΔInc_Incl ≤ -1 degree), Stable (N = 22; ΔInc_Incl > -1 degree and ≤1 degree), and Pro (N = 123; ΔInc_Incl > 1 degree). Clinical crown heights of mandibular incisors and the presence of gingival recessions in this region were assessed on plaster models. Fisher's exact tests, one-way analysis of variance, and regression models were used for analysis of inter-group differences. The mean increase of clinical crown heights (T₀ to T₅) of mandibular incisors ranged from 0.6 to 0.91 mm in the Retro, Stable, and Pro groups, respectively; the difference was not significant (P = 0.534). At T₅, gingival recessions were present in 8.8, 4.5, and 16.3 per cent patients from the Retro, Stable, and Pro groups, respectively. The difference was not significant (P = 0.265). The change of lower incisors inclination during treatment did not affect development of labial gingival recessions in this patient group.

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Landscape evolution and surface morphology in mountainous settings are a function of the relative importance between sediment transport processes acting on hillslopes and in channels, modulated by climate variables. The Niesen nappe in the Swiss Penninic Prealps presents a unique setting in which opposite facing flanks host basins underlain by identical lithologies, but contrasting litho-tectonic architectures where lithologies either dip parallel to the topographic slope or in the opposite direction (i.e. dip slope and non-dip slope). The north-western facing Diemtigen flank represents such a dip slope situation and is characterized by a gentle topography, low hillslope gradients, poorly dissected channels, and it hosts large landslides. In contrast, the south-eastern facing Frutigen side can be described as non-dip slope flank with deeply incised bedrock channels, high mean hillslope gradients and high relief topography. Results from morphometric analysis reveal that noticeable differences in morphometric parameters can be related to the contrasts in the relative importance of the internal hillslope-channel system between both valley flanks. While the contrasting dip-orientations of the underlying flysch bedrock has promoted hillslope and channelized processes to contrasting extents and particularly the occurrence of large landslides on the dip slope flank, the flank averaged beryllium-10 (10Be)-derived denudation rates are very similar and range between 0.20 and 0.26 mm yr−1. In addition, our denudation rates offer no direct relationship to basin's slope, area, steepness or concavity index, but reveal a positive correlation to mean basin elevation that we interpret as having been controlled by climatically driven factors such as frost-induced processes and orographic precipitation. Our findings illustrate that while the landscape properties in this part of the northern Alpine border can mainly be related to the tectonic architecture of the underlying bedrock, the denudation rates have a strong orographic control through elevation dependent mean annual temperature and precipitation.

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An interdisciplinary research unit consisting of 30 teams in the natural, economic and social sciences analyzed biodiversity and ecosystem services of a mountain rainforest ecosystem in the hotspot of the tropical Andes, with special reference to past, current and future environmental changes. The group assessed ecosystem services using data from ecological field and scenario-driven model experiments, and with the help of comparative field surveys of the natural forest and its anthropogenic replacement system for agriculture. The book offers insights into the impacts of environmental change on various service categories mentioned in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005): cultural, regulating, supporting and provisioning ecosystem services. Examples focus on biodiversity of plants and animals including trophic networks, and abiotic/biotic parameters such as soils, regional climate, water, nutrient and sediment cycles. The types of threats considered include land use and climate changes, as well as atmospheric fertilization. In terms of regulating and provisioning services, the emphasis is primarily on water regulation and supply as well as climate regulation and carbon sequestration. With regard to provisioning services, the synthesis of the book provides science-based recommendations for a sustainable land use portfolio including several options such as forestry, pasture management and the practices of indigenous peoples. In closing, the authors show how they integrated the local society by pursuing capacity building in compliance with the CBD-ABS (Convention on Biological Diversity - Access and Benefit Sharing), in the form of education and knowledge transfer for application.

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This review deals with the complex sex determining system of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, governed by the interactions between a genetic determination and the influence of temperature, shown in both domestic and wild populations. Naturally sex reversed individuals are strongly suggested in two wild populations. This can be due to the masculinising temperatures which some fry encounter during their sex differentiation period when they colonise shallow waters, and/or to the influence of minor genetic factors. Differences regarding a) thermal responsiveness of sex ratios between and within Nile tilapia populations, b) maternal and paternal effects on temperature dependent sex ratios and c) nearly identical results in offspring of repeated matings, demonstrate that thermosensitivity is under genetic control. Selection experiments to increase the thermosensitivity revealed high responses in the high and low sensitive lines. The high-line showed ~ 90% males after 2 generations of selection whereas the weakly sensitive line had 54% males. This is the first evidence that a surplus of males in temperature treated groups can be selected as a quantitative trait. Expression profiles of several genes (Cyp19a, Foxl2, Amh, Sox9a,b) from the gonad and brain were analysed to define temperature action on the sex determining/differentiating cascade in tilapia. The coexistence of GSD and TSD is discussed.

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Rural areas in Laos are experiencing a rapid transformation from traditional rice-based shifting cultivation systems to more permanent and diversified market-oriented cultivation systems. The consequences of these changes for local livelihoods are not well known. This study analyzes the impact of shifting cultivation change on the livelihood of rural people in six villages in three districts of northern and central Laos. Focus group discussions and household interview questionnaires were employed for data collection. The study reveals that the shifting cultivation of rice is still important in these communities, but it is being intensified as cash crops are introduced. Changes in shifting cultivation during the past ten years vary greatly between the communities studied. In the northern study sites, it is decreasing in areas with rubber expansion and increasing in areas with maize expansion, while it is stable in the central site, where sugarcane is an important cash crop. The impacts of land use change on livelihoods are also diverse. Cash crop producers hold more agricultural land than non-cash crop producers, and rubber and sugarcane producers have fewer rice shortages than non-producers. In the future, livelihood improvements in the central study site may be replicated in the northern sites, but this depends to a large extent on the economic and agricultural settings into which cash crops and other development opportunities are introduced. Moreover, the expansion of cash crops appears to counteract Lao policies aimed at replacing shifting cultivation areas with forests.