66 resultados para Risk assessment Mathematical models


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PRINCIPLES Prediction of arrhythmic events (AEs) has gained importance with the availability of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), but is still imprecise. This study evaluated the innovative Wedensky modulation index (WMI) as predictor of AEs. METHODS In this prospective cohort, 179 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) referred for AE risk assessment underwent baseline evaluation including measurement of R-/T-wave WMI (WMI(RT)) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Two endpoints were assessed 3 years after the baseline evaluation: sudden cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP1) and any cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP2). Associations between baseline predictors (WMI(RT) and LVEF) and endpoints were evaluated in regression models. RESULTS Only three patients were lost to follow-up. EP1 and EP2 occurred in 24 and 27 patients, respectively. WMI(RT) (odds ratio [OR] per 1 point increase for EP1 20.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-221.4, p = 0.014, and for EP2 73.3, 95% CI 6.6-817.7, p <0.001) and LVEF (OR per 1% increase for EP1 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.013, and for EP2 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, p = 0.002) were significantly associated with both endpoints. In bivariable regression controlled for LVEF, WMI(RT) was independently associated with EP1 (p = 0.047) and EP2 (p = 0.007). The combination of WMI(RT) ≥0.60 and LVEF ≤30% resulted in a positive predictive value of 36% for EP1 and 50% for EP2. CONCLUSIONS WMI(RT) is a significant predictor of AEs independent of LVEF and has potential to improve AE risk prediction in CAD patients. However, WMI(RT) should be evaluated in larger and independent samples before recommendations for clinical routine can be made.

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Intensive efforts in recent years to develop and commercialize in vitro alternatives in the field of risk assessment have yielded new promising two- and three dimensional (3D) cell culture models. Nevertheless, a realistic 3D in vitro alveolar model is not available yet. Here we report on the biofabrication of the human air-blood tissue barrier analogue composed of an endothelial cell, basement membrane and epithelial cell layer by using a bioprinting technology. In contrary to the manual method, we demonstrate that this technique enables automatized and reproducible creation of thinner and more homogeneous cell layers, which is required for an optimal air-blood tissue barrier. This bioprinting platform will offer an excellent tool to engineer an advanced 3D lung model for high-throughput screening for safety assessment and drug efficacy testing.

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SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case study basins and to assist future review of priority pollutants under the WFD as well as potential abatement options.

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Background.  The impact of human genetic background on low-trauma fracture (LTF) risk has not been evaluated in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and clinical LTF risk factors. Methods.  In the general population, 6 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associate with LTF through genome-wide association study. Using genome-wide SNP arrays and imputation, we genotyped these SNPs in HIV-positive, white Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We included 103 individuals with a first, physician-validated LTF and 206 controls matched on gender, whose duration of observation and whose antiretroviral therapy start dates were similar using incidence density sampling. Analyses of nongenetic LTF risk factors were based on 158 cases and 788 controls. Results.  A genetic risk score built from the 6 LTF-associated SNPs did not associate with LTF risk, in both models including and not including parental hip fracture history. The contribution of clinical LTF risk factors was limited in our dataset. Conclusions.  Genetic LTF markers with a modest effect size in the general population do not improve fracture prediction in persons with HIV, in whom clinical LTF risk factors are prevalent in both cases and controls.

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AIM To assess whether the established cardiovascular biomarker N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) provides prognostic information in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation (OHCA-VT/VF). METHODS We measured NT-proBNP levels in 155 patients with OHCA-VT/VF enrolled into a prospective multicenter observational study in 21 ICUs in Finland. Blood samples were drawn <6h of OHCA-VT/VF and later after 24h, 48h, and 96h. The end-points were mortality and neurological outcome classified according to Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) after one year. NT-proBNP levels were compared to high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) levels and established risk scores. RESULTS NT-proBNP levels were higher in non-survivors compared to survivors on study inclusion (median 1003 [quartile (Q) 1-3 502-2457] vs. 527 [179-1284]ng/L, p=0.001) and after 24h (1913 [1012-4573] vs. 1080 [519-2210]ng/L, p<0.001). NT-proBNP levels increased from baseline to 96h after ICU admission (p<0.001). NT-proBNP levels were significantly correlated to hs-TnT levels after 24h (rho=0.27, p=0.001), but not to hs-TnT levels on study inclusion (rho=0.05, p=0.67). NT-proBNP levels at all time points were associated with clinical outcome, but only NT-proBNP levels after 24h predicted mortality and poor neurological outcome, defined as CPC 3-5, in models that adjusted for SAPS II and SOFA scores. hs-TnT levels did not add prognostic information to NT-proBNP measurements alone. CONCLUSION NT-proBNP levels at 24h improved risk assessment for poor outcome after one year on top of established risk indices, while hs-TnT measurements did not further add to risk prediction.