Usefulness of electrocardiographic parameters for risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia

The value of electrocardiographic findings predicting adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD) is not well known. We hypothesized that ventricular depolarization and repolarization abnormalities on the 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) predict adverse outcome in patients with ARVD. ECGs of 111 patients screened for the 2010 ARVD Task Force Criteria from 3 Swiss tertiary care centers were digitized and analyzed with a digital caliper by 2 independent observers blinded to the outcome. ECGs were compared in 2 patient groups: (1) patients with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: a composite of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or arrhythmic syncope) and (2) all remaining patients. A total of 51 patients (46%) experienced MACE during a follow-up period with median of 4.6 years (interquartile range 1.8 to 10.0). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed reduced times to MACE for patients with repolarization abnormalities according to Task Force Criteria (p = 0.009), a precordial QRS amplitude ratio (∑QRS mV V1 to V3/∑QRS mV V1 to V6) of ≤ 0.48 (p = 0.019), and QRS fragmentation (p = 0.045). In multivariable Cox regression, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39 to 6.15, p = 0.005), inferior leads T-wave inversions (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.15 to 5.18, p = 0.020), and QRS fragmentation (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.34, p = 0.029) remained as independent predictors of MACE. In conclusion, in this multicenter, observational, long-term study, electrocardiographic findings were useful for risk stratification in patients with ARVD, with repolarization criteria, inferior leads TWI, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48, and QRS fragmentation constituting valuable variables to predict adverse outcome.

Neural correlates of anticipation risk reflect risk preferences

Individual risk preferences have a large influence on decisions, such as financial investments, career and health choices, or gambling. Decision making under risk has been studied both behaviorally and on a neural level. It remains unclear, however, how risk attitudes are encoded and integrated with choice. Here, we investigate how risk preferences are reflected in neural regions known to process risk. We collected functional magnetic resonance images of 56 human subjects during a gambling task (Preuschoff et al., 2006). Subjects were grouped into risk averters and risk seekers according to the risk preferences they revealed in a separate lottery task. We found that during the anticipation of high-risk gambles, risk averters show stronger responses in ventral striatum and anterior insula compared to risk seekers. In addition, risk prediction error signals in anterior insula, inferior frontal gyrus, and anterior cingulate indicate that risk averters do not dissociate properly between gambles that are more or less risky than expected. We suggest this may result in a general overestimation of prospective risk and lead to risk avoidance behavior. This is the first study to show that behavioral risk preferences are reflected in the passive evaluation of risky situations. The results have implications on public policies in the financial and health domain.

Recommendations for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 genetic testing to reduce the risk of carbamazepine-induced hypersensitivity reactions.

OBJECTIVE To systematically review evidence on genetic risk factors for carbamazepine (CBZ)-induced hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) and provide practice recommendations addressing the key questions: (1) Should genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 be performed in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy to reduce the occurrence of CBZ-induced HSRs? (2) Are there subgroups of patients who may benefit more from genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 or HLA-A*31:01 compared to others? (3) How should patients with an indication for CBZ therapy be managed based on their genetic test results? METHODS A systematic literature search was performed for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 and their association with CBZ-induced HSRs. Evidence was critically appraised and clinical practice recommendations were developed based on expert group consensus. RESULTS Patients carrying HLA-B*15:02 are at strongly increased risk for CBZ-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN) in populations where HLA-B*15:02 is common, but not CBZ-induced hypersensitivity syndrome (HSS) or maculopapular exanthema (MPE). HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported from Asian countries only, including China, Thailand, Malaysia, and India. HLA-B*15:02 is rare among Caucasians or Japanese; no HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported so far in these groups. HLA-A*31:01-positive patients are at increased risk for CBZ-induced HSS and MPE, and possibly SJS/TEN and acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP). This association has been shown in Caucasian, Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and patients of mixed origin; however, HLA-A*31:01 is common in most ethnic groups. Not all patients carrying either risk variant develop an HSR, resulting in a relatively low positive predictive value of the genetic tests. SIGNIFICANCE This review provides the latest update on genetic markers for CBZ HSRs, clinical practice recommendations as a basis for informed decision making regarding the use of HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 genetic testing in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy, and identifies knowledge gaps to guide future research. A PowerPoint slide summarizing this article is available for download in the Supporting Information section here.

Change in physical activity after smoking cessation: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study

AIMS To estimate physical activity trajectories for people who quit smoking, and compare them to what would have been expected had smoking continued. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 5115 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) study, a population-based study of African American and European American people recruited at age 18-30 years in 1985/6 and followed over 25 years. MEASUREMENTS Physical activity was self-reported during clinical examinations at baseline (1985/6) and at years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (2010/11); smoking status was reported each year (at examinations or by telephone, and imputed where missing). We used mixed linear models to estimate trajectories of physical activity under varying smoking conditions, with adjustment for participant characteristics and secular trends. FINDINGS We found significant interactions by race/sex (P = 0.02 for the interaction with cumulative years of smoking), hence we investigated the subgroups separately. Increasing years of smoking were associated with a decline in physical activity in black and white women and black men [e.g. coefficient for 10 years of smoking: -0.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20 to -0.07, P < 0.001 for white women]. An increase in physical activity was associated with years since smoking cessation in white men (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI = 0 to 0.13, P = 0.05). The physical activity trajectory for people who quit diverged progressively towards higher physical activity from the expected trajectory had smoking continued. For example, physical activity was 34% higher (95% CI = 18 to 52%; P < 0.001) for white women 10 years after stopping compared with continuing smoking for those 10 years (P = 0.21 for race/sex differences). CONCLUSIONS Smokers who quit have progressively higher levels of physical activity in the years after quitting compared with continuing smokers.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

What is the best time point to identify patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain?

BACKGROUND Early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain (LBP) is crucial. OBJECTIVE Aim of this study was to identify in patients with a new episode of LBP the time point at which those at risk of developing persistent LBP can be best identified.METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 315 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a first episode of acute LBP. Primary outcome measure was functional limitation. Patients were assessed at baseline, three, six, twelve weeks and six months looking at factors of maladaptive cognition as potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for all time points. RESULTS The best time point to predict the development of persistent LBP at six months was the twelve-week follow-up (sensitivity 78%; overall predictive value 90%). Cognitions assessed at first visit to a health practitioner were not predictive. CONCLUSIONS Maladaptive cognitions at twelve weeks appear to be suitable predictors for a transition from acute to persistent LBP. Already three weeks after patients present to a health practitioner with acute LBP cognitions might influence the development of persistent LBP. Therefore, cognitive-behavioral interventions should be considered as early adjuvant LBP treatment in patients at risk of developing persistent LBP.

Finite element analysis in asymptomatic, symptomatic, and ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms: in search of new rupture risk predictors.

OBJECTIVES To compare biomechanical rupture risk parameters of asymptomatic, symptomatic and ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) using finite element analysis (FEA). STUDY DESIGN Retrospective biomechanical single center analysis of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and ruptured AAAs. Comparison of biomechanical parameters from FEA. MATERIALS AND METHODS From 2011 to 2013 computed tomography angiography (CTA) data from 30 asymptomatic, 15 symptomatic, and 15 ruptured AAAs were collected consecutively. FEA was performed according to the successive steps of AAA vessel reconstruction, segmentation and finite element computation. Biomechanical parameters Peak Wall Rupture Risk Index (PWRI), Peak Wall Stress (PWS), and Rupture Risk Equivalent Diameter (RRED) were compared among the three subgroups. RESULTS PWRI differentiated between asymptomatic and symptomatic AAAs (p < .0004) better than PWS (p < .1453). PWRI-dependent RRED was higher in the symptomatic subgroup compared with the asymptomatic subgroup (p < .0004). Maximum AAA external diameters were comparable between the two groups (p < .1355). Ruptured AAAs showed the highest values for external diameter, total intraluminal thrombus volume, PWS, RRED, and PWRI compared with asymptomatic and symptomatic AAAs. In contrast with symptomatic and ruptured AAAs, none of the asymptomatic patients had a PWRI value >1.0. This threshold value might identify patients at imminent risk of rupture. CONCLUSIONS From different FEA derived parameters, PWRI distinguishes most precisely between asymptomatic and symptomatic AAAs. If elevated, this value may represent a negative prognostic factor for asymptomatic AAAs.

The value of serial serum lactate measurements in predicting the extent of ischemic bowel and outcome of patients suffering acute mesenteric ischemia

BACKGROUND Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is an emergency with a mortality rate up to 50 %. Detecting AMI continues to be a major challenge. This study assed the correlation of repeated preoperative serum lactate with bowel necrosis and to identify risk factors for a lethal outcome in patients with AMI. METHODS A retrospective study of 91 patients with clinically and pathologically confirmed AMI from January 2006 to December 2012 was performed. RESULTS In-hospital mortality rate was 42.9 %. Two hundred nine preoperative lactate measurements were analyzed (2.3 ± 1.1 values per patient). Less than or equal to six hours prior to surgery, the mean serum lactate level was significantly higher (4.97 ± 4.21 vs. 3.24 ± 3.05 mmol/L, p = 0.006) and the mean pH significantly lower (7.28 ± 0.12 vs. 7.37 ± 0.08, p = 0.001) compared to >6 h before surgery. Thirty-four patients had at least two lactate measurements within 24 h prior to surgery. In this subgroup, 17 patients (50 %) exhibited an increase, 17 patients (50 %) a decrease in lactate levels. Forward logistic regression analysis showed that length of necrotic bowel and the highest lactate value 24 h prior to surgery were independent risk factors for mortality (r (2)  = 0.329). CONCLUSION The value of serial lactate and pH measurements to predict the length of necrotic bowel is very limited. Length of necrotic bowel and lactate values are independent risk factors for mortality.

DNA Methylation-Guided Prediction of Clinical Failure in High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND Prostate cancer (PCa) is a very heterogeneous disease with respect to clinical outcome. This study explored differential DNA methylation in a priori selected genes to diagnose PCa and predict clinical failure (CF) in high-risk patients. METHODS A quantitative multiplex, methylation-specific PCR assay was developed to assess promoter methylation of the APC, CCND2, GSTP1, PTGS2 and RARB genes in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples from 42 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia and radical prostatectomy specimens of patients with high-risk PCa, encompassing training and validation cohorts of 147 and 71 patients, respectively. Log-rank tests, univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to investigate the prognostic value of the DNA methylation. RESULTS Hypermethylation of APC, CCND2, GSTP1, PTGS2 and RARB was highly cancer-specific. However, only GSTP1 methylation was significantly associated with CF in both independent high-risk PCa cohorts. Importantly, trichotomization into low, moderate and high GSTP1 methylation level subgroups was highly predictive for CF. Patients with either a low or high GSTP1 methylation level, as compared to the moderate methylation groups, were at a higher risk for CF in both the training (Hazard ratio [HR], 3.65; 95% CI, 1.65 to 8.07) and validation sets (HR, 4.27; 95% CI, 1.03 to 17.72) as well as in the combined cohort (HR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.42 to 5.27) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS Classification of primary high-risk tumors into three subtypes based on DNA methylation can be combined with clinico-pathological parameters for a more informative risk-stratification of these PCa patients.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Model for ranking freshwater fish farms according to their risk of infection and illustration for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

Risk measures with the CxLS property

In the present contribution, we characterise law determined convex risk measures that have convex level sets at the level of distributions. By relaxing the assumptions in Weber (Math. Finance 16:419–441, 2006), we show that these risk measures can be identified with a class of generalised shortfall risk measures. As a direct consequence, we are able to extend the results in Ziegel (Math. Finance, 2014, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mafi.12080/abstract) and Bellini and Bignozzi (Quant. Finance 15:725–733, 2014) on convex elicitable risk measures and confirm that expectiles are the only elicitable coherent risk measures. Further, we provide a simple characterisation of robustness for convex risk measures in terms of a weak notion of mixture continuity.

Thrombophilia and risk of VTE recurrence according to the age at the time of first VTE manifestation

BACKGROUND Whether screening for thrombophilia is useful for patients after a first episode of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a controversial issue. However, the impact of thrombophilia on the risk of recurrence may vary depending on the patient's age at the time of the first VTE. PATIENTS AND METHODS Of 1221 VTE patients (42 % males) registered in the MAISTHRO (MAin-ISar-THROmbosis) registry, 261 experienced VTE recurrence during a 5-year follow-up after the discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. RESULTS Thrombophilia was more common among patients with VTE recurrence than those without (58.6 % vs. 50.3 %; p = 0.017). Stratifying patients by the age at the time of their initial VTE, Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, sex and the presence or absence of established risk factors revealed a heterozygous prothrombin (PT) G20210A mutation (hazard ratio (HR) 2.65; 95 %-confidence interval (CI) 1.71 - 4.12; p < 0.001), homozygosity/double heterozygosity for the factor V Leiden and/or PT mutation (HR 2.35; 95 %-CI 1.09 - 5.07, p = 0.030), and an antithrombin deficiency (HR 2.12; 95 %-CI 1.12 - 4.10; p = 0.021) to predict recurrent VTE in patients aged 40 years or older, whereas lupus anticoagulants (HR 3.05; 95%-CI 1.40 - 6.66; p = 0.005) increased the risk of recurrence in younger patients. Subgroup analyses revealed an increased risk of recurrence for a heterozygous factor V Leiden mutation only in young females without hormonal treatment whereas the predictive value of a heterozygous PT mutation was restricted to males over the age of 40 years. CONCLUSIONS Our data do not support a preference of younger patients for thrombophilia testing after a first venous thromboembolic event.

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.