Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture in Swiss men and women

SUMMARY: Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures were determined by gender, age, and BMD values. Remaining lifetime probability at age 50 years was 20.2% in men and 51.3% in women and increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD. The study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model. INTRODUCTION: Switzerland belongs to high-risk countries for osteoporosis. Based on demographic projections, burden will still increase. We assessed remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures by gender, age and BMD in order to populate FRAX algorithm for Switzerland. METHODS: Osteoporotic fracture incidence was determined from national epidemiological data for hospitalised fractured patients from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics in 2000 and results of a prospective Swiss cohort with almost 5,000 fractured patients in 2006. Validated BMD-associated fracture risk was used together with national death incidence and risk tables to determine remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year fracture probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic (hip, spine, distal radius, proximal humerus) fractures. RESULTS: Major osteoporotic fractures incidence was 773 and 2,078 per 100,000 men and women aged 50 and older. Corresponding remaining lifetime probabilities at age 50 were 20.2% and 51.3%. Hospitalisation for clinical spine, distal radius, and proximal humerus fractures reached 25%, 30% and 50%, respectively. Absolute 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD and was higher in women than in men. CONCLUSION: This study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model, a country at highest risk for osteoporotic fractures.

[Epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in Switzerland]

Fractures occurring after 50 years of age are among the leading causes of hospitalizations in Switzerland. At the age of 50 years, in Switzerland, the remaining lifetime probability of suffering an osteoporotic fracture is 51% and 20% for women and men, respectively, i.e. every other woman and every fifth man. According to the demographic projection scenarios, the number of elderly aged 65 years or more will have doubled by year 2050. In the absence of targeted interventions, the considerable human, social, and economic burden represented by osteoporotic fractures should increase by the same order of magnitude. With FRAX (fracture risk assessment tool), validated for Switzerland in tight collaboration with the World Heath Organization, the individual probability of fracture during the next 10 years can be predicted.

A comparison of patient characteristics and 30-day mortality outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation and surgical aortic valve replacement for the treatment of aortic stenosis: a two-centre study

AIMS: It is unclear whether transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) addresses an unmet clinical need for those currently rejected for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and whether there is a subgroup of high-risk patients benefiting more from TAVI compared to SAVR. In this two-centre, prospective cohort study, we compared baseline characteristics and 30-day mortality between TAVI and SAVR in consecutive patients undergoing invasive treatment for aortic stenosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pre-specified different adjustment methods to examine the effect of TAVI as compared with SAVR on overall 30-day mortality: crude univariable logistic regression analysis, multivariable analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics, analysis adjusted for propensity scores, propensity score matched analysis, and weighted analysis using the inverse probability of treatment (IPT) as weights. A total of 1,122 patients were included in the study: 114 undergoing TAVI and 1,008 patients undergoing SAVR. The crude mortality rate was greater in the TAVI group (9.6% vs. 2.3%) yielding an odds ratio [OR] of 4.57 (95%-CI 2.17-9.65). Compared to patients undergoing SAVR, patients with TAVI were older, more likely to be in NYHA class III and IV, and had a considerably higher logistic EuroSCORE and more comorbid conditions. Adjusted OR depended on the method used to control for confounding and ranged from 0.60 (0.11-3.36) to 7.57 (0.91-63.0). We examined the distribution of propensity scores and found scores to overlap sufficiently only in a narrow range. In patients with sufficient overlap of propensity scores, adjusted OR ranged from 0.35 (0.04-2.72) to 3.17 (0.31 to 31.9). In patients with insufficient overlap, we consistently found increased odds of death associated with TAVI compared with SAVR irrespective of the method used to control confounding, with adjusted OR ranging from 5.88 (0.67-51.8) to 25.7 (0.88-750). Approximately one third of patients undergoing TAVI were found to be potentially eligible for a randomised comparison of TAVI versus SAVR. CONCLUSIONS: Both measured and unmeasured confounding limit the conclusions that can be drawn from observational comparisons of TAVI versus SAVR. Our study indicates that TAVI could be associated with either substantial benefits or harms. Randomised comparisons of TAVI versus SAVR are warranted.

Response surface modeling of the interaction between propofol and sevoflurane

BACKGROUND: Propofol and sevoflurane display additivity for gamma-aminobutyric acid receptor activation, loss of consciousness, and tolerance of skin incision. Information about their interaction regarding electroencephalographic suppression is unavailable. This study examined this interaction as well as the interaction on the probability of tolerance of shake and shout and three noxious stimulations by using a response surface methodology. METHODS: Sixty patients preoperatively received different combined concentrations of propofol (0-12 microg/ml) and sevoflurane (0-3.5 vol.%) according to a crisscross design (274 concentration pairs, 3 to 6 per patient). After having reached pseudo-steady state, the authors recorded bispectral index, state and response entropy and the response to shake and shout, tetanic stimulation, laryngeal mask airway insertion, and laryngoscopy. For the analysis of the probability of tolerance by logistic regression, a Greco interaction model was used. For the separate analysis of bispectral index, state and response entropy suppression, a fractional Emax Greco model was used. All calculations were performed with NONMEM V (GloboMax LLC, Hanover, MD). RESULTS: Additivity was found for all endpoints, the Ce(50, PROP)/Ce(50, SEVO) for bispectral index suppression was 3.68 microg. ml(-1)/ 1.53 vol.%, for tolerance of shake and shout 2.34 microg . ml(-1)/ 1.03 vol.%, tetanic stimulation 5.34 microg . ml(-1)/ 2.11 vol.%, laryngeal mask airway insertion 5.92 microg. ml(-1) / 2.55 vol.%, and laryngoscopy 6.55 microg. ml(-1)/2.83 vol.%. CONCLUSION: For both electroencephalographic suppression and tolerance to stimulation, the interaction of propofol and sevoflurane was identified as additive. The response surface data can be used for more rational dose finding in case of sequential and coadministration of propofol and sevoflurane.

Cloning and characterization of a novel zinc finger protein (rZFP96) in the rat corpus luteum

The corpus luteum (CL) is a temporary organ involved in the maintenance of pregnancy. In the course of its life-cycle, the CL undergoes two distinct and consecutive processes for its inevitable removal through apoptosis: functional and structural luteolysis. We isolated a gene encoding for a novel rat zinc finger protein (ZFP), named rat ZFP96 (rZFP96) from an ovarian lambda cDNA library. Sequence analysis revealed close sequence and structural similarity to mouse ZFP96 and human zinc finger protein 305 (ZNF305). Quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction analysis revealed a positive correlation with the end of pregnancy, that is, the onset of structural luteolysis of the CL. Messenger RNA levels increased 3-fold (P < 0.01) between days 13 and 22 of pregnancy and 8-fold (P < 0.01) between day 13 of pregnancy and day 1 post-partum. In addition, we detected rZFP96 expression in mammary, placenta, heart, kidney and skeletal muscle. Sequence analysis predicted that rZFP96 has a high probability of localizing to the nuclear compartment. The presence of both a perfect consensus TGEKP linker sequence between zinc fingers 2 and 3 as well as several similar sequences between the other zinc fingers suggests physical interaction with DNA. Speculatively, rZFP96 may therefore function as a transcription factor, switching-off pro-survival genes and/or upregulating pro-apoptotic genes and thereby contributing to the demise of the CL.

Incidence and direct medical costs of hospitalizations due to osteoporotic fractures in Switzerland

The objective of this study was to estimate the annual direct medical costs of hospitalizations due to osteoporotic fractures in Switzerland. Days of hospital stay in 1992 were quantified using the casuistic of the medical statistics department of VESKA (Vereinigung Schweizerischer Krankenhäuser, the Swiss Hospital Association), which covers 43% of all hospital beds of that country. Number and incidence of total hospitalizations due to fractures were calculated by extrapolating to 100% the 43% VESKA-selected sample. To estimate number and incidence of hospitalizations due to osteoporotic fractures, internationally accepted age-specific osteoporosis attribution rates were applied. According to the latter the probability of a fracture being caused by osteoporosis increases with age. Mean length of stay for all fractures was calculated (= total hospital days divided by number of cases). By multiplying these mean lengths of stay by the number of osteoporosis-related fracture cases, the number of bed-days due to osteoporotic fractures was calculated. To compare the direct medical costs of hospitalization due to osteoporosis with those due to other frequent diseases, days of hospital stay caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, acute myocardial infarction and breast cancer were estimated using the same methodology. A total estimate of 63,170 (f: 33,596, m: 29,574) hospitalizations due to fractures (and other osteoporosis-related diagnoses) was calculated, thus leading to overall annual incidence rates of hospitalizations for fractures of 950/100,000 women and 877/100,000 men. In women, 548,615 hospital days were found to be caused by osteoporosis, 353,654 days by COPD, 352,062 days by stroke, 200,669 days by breast carcinoma and 131,331 days by myocardial infarction. In men, COPD caused more hospitalization days (537,164) than myocardial infarction (196,793), stroke (180,524) or osteoporosis (152,857). Taking a mean price for a hospital day in Switzerland of 845 Swiss francs, the annual costs of acute hospitalizations due to osteoporosis and its complications were approximately 600 million Swiss francs (f: 464, m: 130 million Swiss francs) in 1992. We conclude that there is enough economic evidence to justify wide-scale interventions against osteoporosis in Switzerland.

Subsecond changes of global brain state in illusory multistable motion perception

This study explored transient changes in EEG microstates and spatial Omega complexity associated with changes in multistable perception. 21-channel EEG was recorded from 13 healthy subjects viewing an alternating dot pattern that induced illusory motion with ambiguous direction. Baseline epochs with stable motion direction were compared to epochs immediately preceding stimuli that were perceived with changed motion direction ('reference stimuli'). About 750 ms before reference stimuli, Omega complexity decreased as compared to baseline, and two of four classes of EEG microstates changed their probability of occurrence. About 300 ms before reference stimuli, Omega complexity increased and the previous deviations of EEG microstates were reversed. Given earlier results on Omega complexity and microstates, these sub-second EEG changes might parallel longer-lasting fluctuations in vigilance. Assumedly, the discontinuities of illusory motion thus occur during sub-second dips in arousal, and the following reconstruction of the illusion coincides with a state of relative over-arousal.

Enemy damage of exotic plant species is similar to that of natives and increases with productivity

1 .In their colonized ranges, exotic plants may be released from some of the herbivores or pathogens of their home ranges but these can be replaced by novel enemies. It is of basic and practical interest to understand which characteristics of invaded communities control accumulation of the new pests. Key questions are whether enemy load on exotic species is smaller than on native competitors as suggested by the enemy release hypothesis (ERH) and whether this difference is most pronounced in resource-rich habitats as predicted by the resource–enemy release hypothesis (R-ERH). 2. In 72 populations of 12 exotic invasive species, we scored all visible above-ground damage morphotypes caused by herbivores and fungal pathogens. In addition, we quantified levels of leaf herbivory and fruit damage. We then assessed whether variation in damage diversity and levels was explained by habitat fertility, by relatedness between exotic species and the native community or rather by native species diversity. 3. In a second part of the study, we also tested the ERH and the R-ERH by comparing damage of plants in 28 pairs of co-occurring native and exotic populations, representing nine congeneric pairs of native and exotic species. 4. In the first part of the study, diversity of damage morphotypes and damage levels of exotic populations were greater in resource-rich habitats. Co-occurrence of closely related, native species in the community significantly increased the probability of fruit damage. Herbivory on exotics was less likely in communities with high phylogenetic diversity. 5. In the second part of the study, exotic and native congeneric populations incurred similar damage diversity and levels, irrespective of whether they co-occurred in nutrient-poor or nutrient-rich habitats. 9. Synthesis. We identified habitat productivity as a major community factor affecting accumulation of enemy damage by exotic populations. Similar damage levels in exotic and native congeneric populations, even in species pairs from fertile habitats, suggest that the enemy release hypothesis or the R-ERH cannot always explain the invasiveness of introduced species.

Single-Molecule Conductance of Functionalized Oligoynes: Length Dependence and Junction Evolution

We report a combined experimental and theoretical investigation of the length dependence and anchor group dependence of the electrical conductance of a series of oligoyne molecular wires in single-molecule junctions with gold contacts. Experimentally, we focus on the synthesis and properties of diaryloligoynes with n = 1, 2, and 4 triple bonds and the anchor dihydrobenzo[b]thiophene (BT). For comparison, we also explored the aurophilic anchor group cyano (CN), amino (NH2), thiol (SH), and 4-pyridyl (PY). Scanning tunneling microscopy break junction (STM-BJ) and mechanically controllable break junction (MCBJ) techniques are employed to investigate single-molecule conductance characteristics. The BT moiety is superior as compared to traditional anchoring groups investigated so far. BT-terminated oligoynes display a 100% probability of junction formation and possess conductance values which are the highest of the oligoynes studied and, moreover, are higher than other conjugated molecular wires of similar length. Density functional theory (DFT)-based calculations are reported for oligoynes with n = 1−4 triple bonds. Complete conductance traces and conductance distributions are computed for each family of molecules. The sliding of the anchor groups leads to oscillations in both the electrical conductance and the binding energies of the studied molecular wires. In agreement with experimental results, BT-terminated oligoynes are predicted to have a high electrical conductance. The experimental attenuation constants βH range between 1.7 nm−1 (CN) and 3.2 nm−1 (SH) and show the following trend: βH(CN) < βH(NH2) < βH(BT) < βH(PY) ≈ βH(SH). DFT-based calculations yield lower values, which range between 0.4 nm−1 (CN) and 2.2 nm−1 (PY).

Omega-3 poly-unsaturated fatty acids for the prevention of severe neutropenic enterocolitis in patients with acute myeloid leukemia

Neutropenic enterocolitis is a potentially fatal complication of myeloablative chemotherapy in patients with acute myeloid leukemia. Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) are precursors of potent anti-inflammatory prostaglandins. Our aim was to explore the safety and effectiveness of omega-3 PUFA added to parenteral nutrition in protecting leukemia patients from severe enterocolitis. Fourteen patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received omega-3 PUFA in a Phase II trial were compared with 66 consecutive control patients not getting this intervention. We performed crude and adjusted comparisons, using inverse probability of treatment weighting for adjusted analysis, and blind outcome assessment to minimize assessor bias. Primary outcome was severe enterocolitis (≥Grade 3). The crude odds ratio of Grade 3 colitis or higher was 1.36 (95% CI 0.37 to 4.96, P = 0.64), and the adjusted odds ratio was 0.79 (95% CI 0.35 to 1.78, P = 0.57). There was little evidence to suggest differences between groups in serious adverse events and overall mortality. Our results provide little evidence that addition of omega-3 PUFA is beneficial in this condition. Routine treatment with omega-3 PUFA is currently not warranted.

Long-term comparison of everolimus-eluting stents with sirolimus- and paclitaxel-eluting stents for percutaneous coronary intervention of saphenous vein grafts

Aims: Newer-generation everolimus-eluting stents (EES) have been shown to improve clinical outcomes compared with early-generation sirolimus-eluting (SES) and paclitaxel-eluting stents (PES) in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Whether this benefit is maintained among patients with saphenous vein graft (SVG) disease remains controversial. Methods and results: We assessed cumulative incidence rates (CIR) per 100 patient years after inverse probability of treatment weighting to compare clinical outcomes. The pre-specified primary endpoint was the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), and target vessel revascularisation (TVR). Out of 12,339 consecutively treated patients, 288 patients (5.7%) underwent PCI of at least one SVG lesion with EES (n=127), SES (n=103) or PES (n=58). Up to four years, CIR of the primary endpoint were 58.7 for EES, 45.2 for SES and 45.6 for PES with similar adjusted risks between groups (EES vs. SES; HR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.55-1.60, EES vs. PES; HR 1.07, 95% CI: 0.60-1.91). Adjusted risks showed no significant differences between stent types for cardiac death, MI and TVR. Conclusions: Among patients undergoing PCI for SVG lesions, newer-generation EES have similar safety and efficacy to early-generation SES and PES during long-term follow-up to four years.

Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.

Decreasing risk of hepatitis a infection in león, nicaragua: evidence from cross-sectional and longitudinal seroepidemiology studies

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Nicaragua is highly endemic for hepatitis A. We aimed to provide an estimate of the change in the age-specific risk of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection based on serological data from cross-sectional and longitudinal samples collected in León, Nicaragua, in 1995/96 (n = 979) and 2003 (n = 494). METHODS The observed age-specific prevalence of anti-HAV antibodies was correlated to the age-specific risk of infection by calculating the probability of freedom from infection at a specific age. RESULTS The proportion of seropositive children aged 1.5 to 6 years was 42% in 2003 compared to 67% in 1995/96. Estimated annual risk of infection for a 3-year old child was 30% (95% CI: 27.0%, 33.1%) in 1995 and 15.5% (95% CI: 12.4%, 19.0%) in 2003. There was good agreement between estimates based on cross-sectional and longitudinal data. The age-specific geometric mean of the quantified anti-HAV antibody levels assessed in 2003 was highest at age 4 and decreased steadily up to age 40. CONCLUSIONS The substantially lower risk of HAV infection in 2003 than in 1995 for young children indicates a beginning transition from high to intermediate endemicity in León, Nicaragua. Consecutive age-stratified serosurveys are useful to assess changes in risk of infection following public health interventions. The decreasing age-specific GMC of anti-HAV antibodies during adulthood in a country with endemic HAV indirectly suggests that ongoing HAV exposure in the community has marginal boosting effect on antibody levels once protective immunity has been established by natural infection.

Reinfection by untreated partners of people treated for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Reinfection after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae reduces the effect of control interventions. We explored the impact of delays in treatment of current partners on the expected probability of reinfection of index cases using a mathematical model. METHODS We used previously reported parameter distributions to calculate the probability that index cases would be reinfected by their untreated partners. We then assumed different delays between index case and partner treatment to calculate the probabilities of reinfection. RESULTS In the absence of partner treatment, the medians of the expected reinfection probabilities are 19.4% (IQR 9.2-31.6%) for C trachomatis and 12.5% (IQR 5.6-22.2%) for N gonorrhoeae. If all current partners receive treatment 3 days after the index case, the expected reinfection probabilities are 4.2% (IQR 2.1-6.9%) for C trachomatis and 5.5% (IQR 2.6-9.5%) for N gonorrhoeae. CONCLUSIONS Quicker partner referral and treatment can substantially reduce reinfection rates for C trachomatis and N gonorrhoeae by untreated partners. The formula we used to calculate reinfection rates can be used to inform the design of randomised controlled trials of novel partner notification technologies like accelerated partner therapy.

Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). METHODS We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. RESULTS The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.