A climatological analysis of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and associated large-scale atmospheric conditions

The link between high precipitation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated using ERA-Interim data for 1979–2009. High-precipitation events are analyzed at Halvfarryggen situated in the coastal region of DML and at Kohnen Station located in its interior. This study further includes a comprehensive comparison of high precipitation in ERA-Interim with precipitation data from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWSs), with the limitations of such a comparison being discussed. The ERA-Interim and AMPS precipitation data agree very well. However, the correspondence between high precipitation in ERA-Interim and high snow accumulation at the AWSs is relatively weak. High-precipitation events at both Halvfarryggen and Kohnen are typically associated with amplified upper level waves. This large-scale atmospheric flow pattern is preceded by the downstream development of a Rossby wave train from the eastern South Pacific several days before the precipitation event. At the surface, a cyclone located over the Weddell Sea is the main synoptic ingredient for high precipitation both at Halvfarryggen and at Kohnen. A blocking anticyclone downstream is not a requirement for high precipitation per se, but a larger share of blocking occurrences during the highest-precipitation days in DML suggests that these blocks strengthen the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into DML. A strong link between high precipitation and the IVT perpendicular to the local orography suggests that IVT could be used as a “proxy” for high precipitation, in particular over DML's interior.

A Research Roadmap for Complementary and Alternative Medicine – What We Need to Know by 2020

Background: The CAMbrella coordination action was funded within the Framework Programme 7. Its aim is to provide a research roadmap for clinical and epidemiological research for complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) that is appropriate for the health needs of European citizens and acceptable to their national research institutes and healthcare providers in both public and private sectors. One major issue in the European research agenda is the demographic change and its impact on health care. Our vision for 2020 is that there is an evidence base that enables European citizens to make informed decisions about CAM, both positive and negative. This roadmap proposes a strategic research agenda for the field of CAM designed to address future European health care challenges. This roadmap is based on the results of CAMbrella’s several work packages, literature reviews and expert discussions including a consensus meeting. Methods: We first conducted a systematic literature review on key issues in clinical and epidemiological research in CAM to identify the general concepts, methods and the strengths and weaknesses of current CAM research. These findings were discussed in a workshop (Castellaro, Italy, September 7–9th 2011) with international CAM experts and strategic and methodological recommendations were defined in order to improve the rigor and relevance of CAM research. These recommendations provide the basis for the research roadmap, which was subsequently discussed in a consensus conference (Järna, Sweden, May 9–11th 2012) with all CAMbrella members and the CAMbrella advisory board. The roadmap was revised after this discussion in CAMbrella Work Package (WP) 7 and finally approved by CAMbrella’s scientific steering committee on September 26th 2012. Results: Our main findings show that CAM is very heterogenous in terms of definitions and legal regulations between the European countries. In addition, citizens’ needs and attitudes towards CAM as well as the use and provision of CAM differ significantly between countries. In terms of research methodology, there was consensus that CAM researchers should make use of all the commonly accepted scientific research methods and employ those with utmost diligence combined in a mixed methods framework. Conclusions: We propose 6 core areas of research that should be investigated to achieve a robust knowledge base and to allow stakeholders to make informed decisions. These are: Research into the prevalence of CAM in Europe: Reviews show that we do not know enough about the circumstances in which CAM is used by Europeans. To enable a common European strategic approach, a clear picture of current use is of the utmost importance. Research into differences regarding citizens’ attitudes and needs towards CAM: Citizens are the driver for CAM utilization. Their needs and views on CAM are a key priority, and their interests must be investigated and addressed in future CAM research. Research into safety of CAM: Safety is a key issue for European citizens. CAM is considered safe, but reliable data is scarce although urgently needed in order to assess the risk and cost-benefit ratio of CAM. Research into the comparative effectiveness of CAM: Everybody needs to know in what situation CAM is a reasonable choice. Therefore, we recommend a clear emphasis on concurrent evaluation of the overall effectiveness of CAM as an additional or alternative treatment strategy in real-world settings. Research into effects of context and meaning: The impact of effects of context and meaning on the outcome of CAM treatments must be investigated; it is likely that they are significant. Research into different models of CAM health care integration: There are different models of CAM being integrated into conventional medicine throughout Europe, each with their respective strengths and limitations. These models should be described and concurrently evaluated; innovative models of CAM provision in health care systems should be one focus for CAM research. We also propose a methodological framework for CAM research. We consider that a framework of mixed methodological approaches is likely to yield the most useful information. In this model, all available research strategies including comparative effectiveness research utilising quantitative and qualitative methods should be considered to enable us to secure the greatest density of knowledge possible. Stakeholders, such as citizens, patients and providers, should be involved in every stage of developing the specific and relevant research questions, study design and the assurance of real-world relevance for the research. Furthermore, structural and sufficient financial support for research into CAM is needed to strengthen CAM research capacity if we wish to understand why it remains so popular within the EU. In order to consider employing CAM as part of the solution to the health care, health creation and self-care challenges we face by 2020, it is vital to obtain a robust picture of CAM use and reliable information about its cost, safety and effectiveness in real-world settings. We need to consider the availability, accessibility and affordability of CAM. We need to engage in research excellence and utilise comparative effectiveness approaches and mixed methods to obtain this data. Our recommendations are both strategic and methodological. They are presented for the consideration of researchers and funders while being designed to answer the important and implicit questions posed by EU citizens currently using CAM in apparently increasing numbers. We propose that the EU actively supports an EUwide strategic approach that facilitates the development of CAM research. This could be achieved in the first instance through funding a European CAM coordinating research office dedicated to foster systematic communication between EU governments, public, charitable and industry funders as well as researchers, citizens and other stakeholders. The aim of this office would be to coordinate research strategy developments and research funding opportunities, as well as to document and disseminate international research activities in this field. With the aim to develop sustainability as second step, a European Centre for CAM should be established that takes over the monitoring and further development of a coordinated research strategy for CAM, as well as it should have funds that can be awarded to foster high quality and robust independent research with a focus on citizens health needs and pan-European collaboration. We wish to establish a solid funding for CAM research to adequately inform health care and health creation decision-making throughout the EU. This centre would ensure that our vision of a common, strategic and scientifically rigorous approach to CAM research becomes our legacy and Europe’s reality. We are confident that our recommendations will serve these essential goals for EU citizens.

Comparative assessment of ELISAs using recombinant saposin-like protein 2 and recombinant cathepsin L-1 from Fasciola hepatica for the serodiagnosis of human Fasciolosis.

Two recombinant Fasciola hepatica antigens, saposin-like protein-2 (recSAP2) and cathepsin L-1 (recCL1), were assessed individually and in combination in enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) for the specific serodiagnosis of human fasciolosis in areas of low endemicity as encountered in Central Europe. Antibody detection was conducted using ProteinA/ProteinG (PAG) conjugated to alkaline phosphatase. Test characteristics as well as agreement with results from an ELISA using excretory-secretory products (FhES) from adult stage liver flukes was assessed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, specificity, sensitivity, Youdens J and overall accuracy. Cross-reactivity was assessed using three different groups of serum samples from healthy individuals (n=20), patients with other parasitic infections (n=87) and patients with malignancies (n=121). The best combined diagnostic results for recombinant antigens were obtained using the recSAP2-ELISA (87% sensitivity, 99% specificity and 97% overall accuracy) employing the threshold (cut-off) to discriminate between positive and negative reactions that maximized Youdens J. The findings showed that recSAP2-ELISA can be used for the routine serodiagnosis of chronic fasciolosis in clinical laboratories; the use of the PAG-conjugate offers the opportunity to employ, for example, rabbit hyperimmune serum for the standardization of positive controls.

The longitudinal course of gross motor activity in schizophrenia - within and between episodes

Schizophrenia is associated with heterogeneous course of positive and negative symptoms. In addition, reduced motor activity as measured by wrist actigraphy has been reported. However, longitudinal studies of spontaneous motor activity are missing. We aimed to explore whether activity levels were stable within and between psychotic episodes. Furthermore, we investigated the association with the course of negative symptoms. In 45 medicated patients, we investigated motor behavior within a psychotic episode. In addition, we followed 18 medicated patients across 2 episodes. Wrist actigraphy and psychopathological ratings were applied. Within an episode symptoms changed but activity levels did not vary systematically. Activity at baseline predicted the course of negative symptoms. Between two episodes activity recordings were much more stable. Again, activity at the index episode predicted the outcome of negative symptoms. In sum, spontaneous motor activity shares trait and state characteristics, the latter are associated with negative symptom course. Actigraphy may therefore become an important ambulatory instrument to monitor negative symptoms and treatment outcome in schizophrenia.

Entwicklung der Fünf-Item-Kurzskala STAI-SKD zur Messung von Zustandsangst

Das State-Trait-Angstinventar (STAI) ist eines der am häufigsten eingesetzten Erhebungsinstrumente im Bereich der Angstdiagnostik. Die STAI-Skala zur Erfassung von Zustandsangst umfasst 20 Items. Unter bestimmten Erhebungsbedingungen erweist es sich als relativ schwierig, eine große Menge an Items zu bearbeiten oder aber es steht nicht ausreichend Testzeit zur Verfügung. Daher war es das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie, eine Kurzform der State-Version des STAI zu entwickeln. An einer Stichprobe von N = 65 Studierenden wurde aufgrund inhaltlicher und statistischer Kriterien eine Kurzform der State-Version des STAI, das STAI-SKD, mit fünf Items generiert. Eine konfirmatorische Faktorenanalyse an einer zweiten Stichprobe von N = 191 Studierenden zeigte, dass das STAI-SKD die Angstkomponenten Emotionality und Worry abbildet. Die Beziehungen des STAI-SKD zu positivem und negativem Affekt sowie dessen Veränderungssensitivität fielen in einer dritten Stichprobe (N = 80 Studierende) erwartungsgemäß aus. Die neue Kurzform der State-Version des STAI erlaubt eine ökonomische Erfassung der Zustandsangst.

Bilateral exchange rates and jobs

We study the labor market effects of realignment in fixed bilateral exchange rates, such as China's peg to the US dollar. We employ the open economy model by de Melo and Robinson to identify the core parameters of the real, trade side of the economy driving the unemployment effects of bilateral exchange rate realignment. A small open economy version of the model is explored analytically and a large multicountry version numerically. Analytics in the small open economy model show that unemployment effects of adjusting of a bilateral peg hinge on the fraction exported to and imported from the trading partner. A larger fraction exported to and a smaller fraction imported from the trading partner make it more likely that revaluation of a trading partner's currency has beneficial effects. Numerics in the large economy model show that Chinese revaluation can generate both positive and negative unemployment effects depending upon underlying parameter values. Adverse unemployment effects can go along with an improving trade balance.

Exceptional or just well connected? Political entrepreneurs and brokers in policy making

Policy brokers and policy entrepreneurs are assumed to have a decisive impact on policy outcomes. Their access to social and political resources is contingent on their influence on other agents. In social network analysis (SNA), entrepreneurs are often closely associated with brokers, because both are agents presumed to benefit from bridging structural holes; for example, gaining advantage through occupying a strategic position in relational space. Our aim here is twofold. First, to conceptually and operationally differentiate policy brokers from policy entrepreneurs premised on assumptions in the policy-process literature; and second, via SNA, to use the output of core algorithms in a cross-sectional analysis of political brokerage and political entrepreneurship. We attempt to simplify the use of graph algebra in answering questions relevant to policy analysis by placing each algorithm within its theoretical context. In the methodology employed, we first identify actors and graph their relations of influence within a specific policy event; then we select the most central actors; and compare their rank in a series of statistics that capture different aspects of their network advantage. We examine betweenness centrality, positive and negative Bonacich power, Burt’s effective size and constraint and honest brokerage as paradigmatic. We employ two case studies to demonstrate the advantages and limitations of each algorithm for differentiating between brokers and entrepreneurs: one on Swiss climate policy and one on EU competition and transport policy.

Challenge stressors: longitudinal effects on self attitudes, work attitudes, and health.

Recent research suggests that some stressors (i.e. hindrance stressors) have mainly negative consequences, whereas others (i.e. challenge stressors) can simultaneously have positive and negative consequences (e.g., LePine et al., 2005). Although a number of studies have dealt with potential outcomes of challenge stressors, some criteria have received only limited attention (e.g., positive self-attitudes; cf. Widmer et al., 2012), and some have been neglected altogether (i.e., physical health outcomes). Furthermore, while sophisticated methods – such as meta-analyses (e.g., LePine et al., 2005), diary studies (Ohly & Fritz, 2010), and multi-source analyses (Wallace et al., 2009) – have been applied to the framework, there are no longitudinal studies. We report results from a longitudinal study containing three waves, with two time-lags of one month each (N = 393). We analyzed relationships between challenge stressors and work attitudes (e.g. job satisfaction), self attitudes (e.g. self-esteem), and health indicators (e.g. sleep quality) using cross-lagged SEM. We expected positive effects of challenge stressors to appear only when their negative variance is controlled (e.g. by including hindrance stressors as a suppressor variable; cf. Cavanaugh et al., 2000). As the positive aspects of challenge stressors relate to self-affirming experiences, we also expected positive effects to be especially strong for self attitudes. Regarding work attitudes, the only significant paths found were from work attitudes to challenge stressors over both time lags. Regarding health, there was a significant cross-sectional association at time 1, which was negative, as expected. Longitudinally, a positive path from challenge stressors to health for both time lags was found only when hindrances stressors were controlled, confirming the expected suppressor effect. Hindrance stressors had a negative effect on health. For self-attitudes, there was a positive cross-sectional association at time one. In addition, a positive effect on self attitudes was found longitudinally for both time lags, but only when hindrance stressors were controlled. Additional analyses showed that the positive longitudinal effect on health was mediated by self attitudes. Although the lack of associations with work attitudes was surprising, our results indicate that challenge stressors contain aspects that provide an opportunity to develop self-esteem through demanding work situations, thereby contributing to personal growth and thriving at the workplace. They also confirm the ambiguous nature of challenge stressors, as, with one exception, positive effects were found only when hindrance stressors were controlled (cf. Widmer et al., 2012). Finally, our results confirm the importance of self-related attitudes in the stress process.

Virulence and genotype-associated infectivity of interferon-treated macrophages by porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome viruses.

The polarization into M1 and M2 macrophages (MΦ) is essential to understand MΦ function. Consequently, the aim of this study was to determine the impact of IFN-γ (M1), IL-4 (M2) and IFN-β activation of MΦ on the susceptibility to genotype 1 and 2 porcine reproductive respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus (PRRSV) strains varying in virulence. To this end, monocyte-derived MΦ were generated by culture during 72h and polarization was induced for another 24h by addition of IFN-γ, IL-4 or IFN-β. MΦ were infected with a collection of PRRSV isolates belonging to genotype 1 and genotype 2. Undifferentiated and M2 MΦ were highly susceptible to all PRRSV isolates. In contrast, M1 and IFN-β activated MΦ were resistant to low pathogenic genotype 1 PRRSV but not or only partially to genotype 2 PRRSV strains. Interestingly, highly virulent PRRSV isolates of both genotypes showed particularly high levels of infection compared with the prototype viruses in both M1 and IFN-β-treated MΦ (P<0.05). This was seen at the level of nucleocapsid expression, viral titres and virus-induced cell death. In conclusion, by using IFN-γ and IFN-β stimulated MΦ it is possible to discriminate between PRRSV varying in genotype and virulence. Genotype 2 PRRSV strains are more efficient at escaping the intrinsic antiviral effects induced by type I and II IFNs. Our in vitro model will help to identify viral genetic elements responsible for virulence, an information important not only to understand PRRS pathogenesis but also for a rational vaccine design. Our results also suggest that monocyte-derived MΦ can be used as a PRRSV infection model instead of alveolar MΦ, avoiding the killing of pigs.

Proteome-wide screening of the European porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus reveals a broad range of T cell antigen reactivity.

The porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is a rapidly evolving and diversifying pathogen necessitating the development of improved vaccines. Immunity to PRRSV is not well understood although there are data suggesting that virus-specific T cell IFN-γ responses play an important role. We therefore aimed to better characterise the T cell response to genotype 1 (European) PRRSV by utilising a synthetic peptide library spanning the entire proteome and a small cohort of pigs rendered immune to PRRSV-1 Olot/91 by repeated experimental infection. Using an IFN-γ ELISpot assay as a read-out, we were able to identify 9 antigenic regions on 5 of the viral proteins and determine the corresponding responder T cell phenotype. The diversity of the IFN-γ response to PRRSV proteins suggests that antigenic regions are scattered throughout the proteome and no one single antigen dominates the T cell response. To address the identification of well-conserved T cell antigens, we subsequently screened groups of pigs infected with a closely related avirulent PRRSV-1 strain (Lelystad) and a divergent virulent subtype 3 strain (SU1-Bel). Whilst T cell responses from both groups were observed against many of the antigens identified in the first study, animals infected with the SU1-Bel strain showed the greatest response against peptides representing the non-structural protein 5. The proteome-wide peptide library screening method used here, as well as the antigens identified, warrant further evaluation in the context of next generation vaccine development.

Do avoidance goals always impair performance? How neuroticism moderates the short- and long-term effects of avoidance versus approach goals on performance

Previous research agrees that approach goals have positive effects whereas avoidance goals have negative effects on performance. By contrast, the present chapter looks at the conditions under which even avoidance goals may have positive effects on performance. We will first review the previous research that supports the positive consequences of avoidance goals. Then we will argue that the positive and negative consequences of approach and avoidance goals on performance depend on an individual‘s neuroticism level and the time frame of their goal striving. Because neuroticism is positively related to avoidance goals, we assume that individuals with high levels of neuroticism may derive some benefits from avoidance goals. We have specified this assumption by hypothesizing that the fit between an individual‘s level of neuroticism and their avoidance goals leads to favorable consequences in the short term – but to negative outcomes in the long run. A short-term, experimental study with employees and a long-term correlative field study with undergraduate students were conducted to test whether neuroticism moderates the short- and long-term effects of avoidance versus approach goals on performance. Experimental study 1 showed that individuals with a high level of neuroticism performed best in the short term when they were assigned to avoidance goals, whereas individuals with a low level of neuroticism performed best when pursuing approach goals. However, study 2 indicated that in the long run individuals with a high level of neuroticism performed worse when striving for avoidance goals, whereas individuals with a low level of neuroticism were not impaired at all by avoidance goals. In summary, the pattern of results supports the hypothesis that a fit between a high level of neuroticism and avoidance goals has positive consequences in the short term, but leads to negative outcomes in the long run. We strongly encourage further research to investigate short- and long-term effects of approach and avoidance goals on performance in conjunction with an individual‘s personality, which may moderate these effects.

Life-span development of self-esteem and its effects on important life outcomes

We examined the life-span development of self-esteem and tested whether self-esteem influences the development of important life outcomes, including relationship satisfaction, job satisfaction, occupational status, salary, positive and negative affect, depression, and physical health. Data came from the Longitudinal Study of Generations. Analyses were based on 5 assessments across a 12-year period of a sample of 1,824 individuals ages 16 to 97 years. First, growth curve analyses indicated that self-esteem increases from adolescence to middle adulthood, reaches a peak at about age 50 years, and then decreases in old age. Second, cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that self-esteem is best modeled as a cause rather than a consequence of life outcomes. Third, growth curve analyses, with self-esteem as a time-varying covariate, suggested that self-esteem has medium-sized effects on life-span trajectories of affect and depression, small to medium-sized effects on trajectories of relationship and job satisfaction, a very small effect on the trajectory of health, and no effect on the trajectory of occupational status. These findings replicated across 4 generations of participants— children, parents, grandparents, and their great-grandparents. Together, the results suggest that self-esteem has a significant prospective impact on real-world life experiences and that high and low self-esteem are not mere epiphenomena of success and failure in important life domains.

Age differences in instability, contingency, and level of self-esteem across the life span

We investigated age differences in instability, contingency, and level of self-esteem from age 13 to 72 years, using data from 1386 individuals who participated in a diary study over 25 days. Instability and contingency of self-esteem decreased from adolescence to old age, whereas level of self-esteem increased. Big Five personality traits predicted the level, but not the slope, of the trajectories of self-esteem characteristics. Age differences in self-esteem characteristics did not merely reflect age differences in instability and level of positive and negative affect. Finally, self-esteem characteristics showed a stable pattern of interrelations across the life span. Overall, the findings suggest that people’s self-esteem tends to become better adjusted—i.e., more stable, less contingent, and higher—across the life course.

Effect sizes and standardization in neighbourhood models of forest stands: potential biases and misinterpretations

Effects of conspecific neighbours on survival and growth of trees have been found to be related to species abundance. Both positive and negative relationships may explain observed abundance patterns. Surprisingly, it is rarely tested whether such relationships could be biased or even spurious due to transforming neighbourhood variables or influences of spatial aggregation, distance decay of neighbour effects and standardization of effect sizes. To investigate potential biases, communities of 20 identical species were simulated with log-series abundances but without species-specific interactions. No relationship of conspecific neighbour effects on survival or growth with species abundance was expected. Survival and growth of individuals was simulated in random and aggregated spatial patterns using no, linear, or squared distance decay of neighbour effects. Regression coefficients of statistical neighbourhood models were unbiased and unrelated to species abundance. However, variation in the number of conspecific neighbours was positively or negatively related to species abundance depending on transformations of neighbourhood variables, spatial pattern and distance decay. Consequently, effect sizes and standardized regression coefficients, often used in model fitting across large numbers of species, were also positively or negatively related to species abundance depending on transformation of neighbourhood variables, spatial pattern and distance decay. Tests using randomized tree positions and identities provide the best benchmarks by which to critically evaluate relationships of effect sizes or standardized regression coefficients with tree species abundance. This will better guard against potential misinterpretations.