76 resultados para PROPORTIONAL HAZARD AND ACCELERATED FAILURE MODELS
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Computer tomography (CT)-based finite element (FE) models assess vertebral strength better than dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Osteoporotic vertebrae are usually loaded via degenerated intervertebral discs (IVD) and potentially at higher risk under forward bending, but the influences of the IVD and loading conditions are generally overlooked. Accordingly, magnetic resonance imaging was performed on 14 lumbar discs to generate FE models for the healthiest and most degenerated specimens. Compression, torsion, bending, flexion and extension conducted experimentally were used to calibrate both models. They were combined with CT-based FE models of 12 lumbar vertebral bodies to evaluate the effect of disc degeneration compared to a loading via endplates embedded in a stiff resin, the usual experimental paradigm. Compression and lifting were simulated, load and damage pattern were evaluated at failure. Adding flexion to the compression (lifting) and higher disc degeneration reduces the failure load (8–14%, 5–7%) and increases damage in the vertebrae. Under both loading scenarios, decreasing the disc height slightly increases the failure load; embedding and degenerated IVD provides respectively the highest and lowest failure load. Embedded vertebrae are more brittle, but failure loads induced via IVDs correlate highly with vertebral strength. In conclusion, osteoporotic vertebrae with degenerated IVDs are consistently weaker—especially under lifting, but clinical assessment of their strength is possible via FE analysis without extensive disc modelling, by extrapolating measures from the embedded situation.
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It has long been surmised that income inequality within a society negatively affects public health. However, more recent studies suggest there is no association, especially when analyzing small areas. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of income inequality on mortality in Switzerland using the Gini index on municipality level. The study population included all individuals >30 years at the 2000 Swiss census (N = 4,689,545) living in 2,740 municipalities with 35.5 million person-years of follow-up and 456,211 deaths over follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression models were adjusted for age, gender, marital status, nationality, urbanization, and language region. Results were reported as hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals. The mean Gini index across all municipalities was 0.377 (standard deviation 0.062, range 0.202-0.785). Larger cities, high-income municipalities and tourist areas had higher Gini indices. Higher income inequality was consistently associated with lower mortality risk, except for death from external causes. Adjusting for sex, marital status, nationality, urbanization and language region only slightly attenuated effects. In fully adjusted models, hazards of all-cause mortality by increasing Gini index quintile were HR = 0.99 (0.98-1.00), HR = 0.98 (0.97-0.99), HR = 0.95 (0.94-0.96), HR = 0.91 (0.90-0.92) compared to the lowest quintile. The relationship of income inequality with mortality in Switzerland is contradictory to what has been found in other developed high-income countries. Our results challenge current beliefs about the effect of income inequality on mortality on small area level. Further investigation is required to expose the underlying relationship between income inequality and population health.
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BACKGROUND Although different prognostic factors for patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and vena cava tumor thrombus (TT) have been studied, the prognostic value of histologic subtype in these patients remains unclear. OBJECTIVE We analyzed the impact of histologic subtype on cancer-specific survival (CSS). DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS We retrospectively analyzed the records of 1774 patients with RCC and TT who underwent radical nephrectomy and tumor thrombectomy from 1971 to 2012 at 22 US and European centers. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Multivariable ordered logistic and Cox regression models were used to quantify the impact of tumor histology on CSS. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Overall 5-yr CSS was 53.4% (confidence interval [CI], 50.5-56.2) in the entire group. TT level (according to the Mayo classification of macroscopic venous invasion in RCC) was I in 38.5% of patients, II in 30.6%, III in 17.3%, and IV in 13.5%. Histologic subtypes were clear cell renal cell carcinoma (cRCC) in 89.9% of patients, papillary renal cell carcinoma (pRCC) in 8.5%, and chromophobe RCC in 1.6%. In univariable analysis, pRCC was associated with a significantly worse CSS (p<0.001) compared with cRCC. In multivariable analysis, the presence of pRCC was independently associated with CSS (hazard ratio: 1.62; CI, 1.01-2.61; p<0.05). Higher TT level, positive lymph node status, distant metastasis, and fat invasion were also independently associated with CSS. CONCLUSIONS In our multi-institutional series, we found that patients with pRCC and vena cava TT who underwent radical nephrectomy and tumor thrombectomy had significantly worse cancer-specific outcomes when compared with patients with other histologic subtypes of RCC. We confirmed that higher TT level and fat invasion were independently associated with reduced CSS.
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OBJECTIVES Fontan failure (FF) represents a growing and challenging indication for paediatric orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT). The aim of this study was to identify predictors of the best mid-term outcome in OHT after FF. METHODS Twenty-year multi-institutional retrospective analysis on OHT for FF. RESULTS Between 1991 and 2011, 61 patients, mean age 15.0 ± 9.7 years, underwent OHT for failing atriopulmonary connection (17 patients = 27.8%) or total cavopulmonary connection (44 patients = 72.2%). Modality of FF included arrhythmia (14.8%), complex obstructions in the Fontan circuit (16.4%), protein-losing enteropathy (PLE) (22.9%), impaired ventricular function (31.1%) or a combination of the above (14.8%). The mean time interval between Fontan completion and OHT was 10.7 ± 6.6 years. Early FF occurred in 18%, requiring OHT 0.8 ± 0.5 years after Fontan. The hospital mortality rate was 18.3%, mainly secondary to infection (36.4%) and graft failure (27.3%). The mean follow-up was 66.8 ± 54.2 months. The overall Kaplan-Meier survival estimate was 81.9 ± 1.8% at 1 year, 73 ± 2.7% at 5 years and 56.8 ± 4.3% at 10 years. The Kaplan-Meier 5-year survival estimate was 82.3 ± 5.9% in late FF and 32.7 ± 15.0% in early FF (P = 0.0007). Late FF with poor ventricular function exhibited a 91.5 ± 5.8% 5-year OHT survival. PLE was cured in 77.7% of hospital survivors, but the 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival estimate in PLE was 46.3 ± 14.4 vs 84.3 ± 5.5% in non-PLE (P = 0.0147). Cox proportional hazards identified early FF (P = 0.0005), complex Fontan pathway obstruction (P = 0.0043) and PLE (P = 0.0033) as independent predictors of 5-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS OHT is an excellent surgical option for late FF with impaired ventricular function. Protein dispersion improves with OHT, but PLE negatively affects the mid-term OHT outcome, mainly for early infective complications.
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Delaying clinical disease onset would greatly reduce neurodegenerative disease burden, but the mechanisms influencing early preclinical progression are poorly understood. Here, we show that in mouse models of familial motoneuron (MN) disease, SOD1 mutants specifically render vulnerable MNs dependent on endogenous neuroprotection signaling involving excitability and mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR). The most vulnerable low-excitability FF MNs already exhibited evidence of pathology and endogenous neuroprotection recruitment early postnatally. Enhancing MN excitability promoted MN neuroprotection and reversed misfolded SOD1 (misfSOD1) accumulation and MN pathology, whereas reducing MN excitability augmented misfSOD1 accumulation and accelerated disease. Inhibiting metabotropic cholinergic signaling onto MNs reduced ER stress, but enhanced misfSOD1 accumulation and prevented mTOR activation in alpha-MNs. Modulating excitability and/or alpha-MN mTOR activity had comparable effects on the progression rates of motor dysfunction, denervation, and death. Therefore, excitability and mTOR are key endogenous neuroprotection mechanisms in motoneurons to counteract clinically important disease progression in ALS.
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OBJECTIVES To report on trends of tuberculosis ascertainment among HIV patients in a rural HIV cohort in Tanzania, and assessing the impact of a bundle of services implemented in December 2012, consisting of three components:(i)integration of HIV and tuberculosis services; (ii)GeneXpert for tuberculosis diagnosis; and (iii)electronic data collection. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study of patients enrolled in the Kilombero Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO), Tanzania.). METHODS HIV patients without prior history of tuberculosis enrolled in the KIULARCO cohort between 2005 and 2013 were included.Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate rates and predictors of tuberculosis ascertainment. RESULTS Of 7114 HIV positive patients enrolled, 5123(72%) had no history of tuberculosis. Of these, 66% were female, median age was 38 years, median baseline CD4+ cell count was 243 cells/µl, and 43% had WHO clinical stage 3 or 4. During follow-up, 421 incident tuberculosis cases were notified with an estimated incidence of 3.6 per 100 person-years(p-y)[95% confidence interval(CI)3.26-3.97]. The incidence rate varied over time and increased significantly from 2.96 to 43.98 cases per 100 p-y after the introduction of the bundle of services in December 2012. Four independent predictors of tuberculosis ascertainment were identified:poor clinical condition at baseline (Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.89, 95% CI 2.87-5.28), WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.88-3.26), being antiretroviralnaïve (HR 2.97, 95% CI 2.25-3.94), and registration in 2013(HR 6.07, 95% CI 4.39-8.38). CONCLUSION The integration of tuberculosis and HIV services together with comprehensive electronic data collection and use of GeneXpert increased dramatically the ascertainment of tuberculosis in this rural African HIV cohort.
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The interaction of a comet with the solar wind undergoes various stages as the comet’s activity varies along its orbit. For a comet like 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, the target comet of ESA’s Rosetta mission, the various features include the formation of a Mach cone, the bow shock, and close to perihelion even a diamagnetic cavity. There are different approaches to simulate this complex interplay between the solar wind and the comet’s extended neutral gas coma which include magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and hybrid-type models. The first treats the plasma as fluids (one fluid in basic single fluid MHD) and the latter treats the ions as individual particles under the influence of the local electric and magnetic fields. The electrons are treated as a charge-neutralizing fluid in both cases. Given the different approaches both models yield different results, in particular for a low production rate comet. In this paper we will show that these differences can be reduced when using a multifluid instead of a single-fluid MHD model and increase the resolution of the Hybrid model. We will show that some major features obtained with a hybrid type approach like the gyration of the cometary heavy ions and the formation of the Mach cone can be partially reproduced with the multifluid-type model.
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Rebound-associated vertebral fractures may follow treatment discontinuation of highly potent reversible bone antiresorptives, resulting from the synergy of rapid bone resorption and accelerated microdamage accumulation in trabecular bone. INTRODUCTION The purposes of this study are to characterize rebound-associated vertebral fractures following the discontinuation of a highly potent reversible antiresorptive therapy based on clinical observation and propose a pathophysiological rationale. METHODS This study is a case report of multiple vertebral fractures early after discontinuation of denosumab therapy in a patient with hormone receptor-positive non-metastatic breast cancer treated with an aromatase inhibitor. RESULTS Discontinuation of highly potent reversible bone antiresorptives such as denosumab may expose patients to an increased fracture risk due to the joined effects of absent microdamage repair during therapy followed by synchronous excess activation of multiple bone remodelling units at the time of loss-of-effect. We suggest the term rebound-associated vertebral fractures (RVF) for this phenomenon characterized by the presence of multiple new clinical vertebral fractures, associated with either no or low trauma, in a context consistent with the presence of high bone turnover and rapid loss of lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) occurring within 3 to 12 months after discontinuation (loss-of-effect) of a reversible antiresorptive therapy in the absence of secondary causes of bone loss or fractures. Unlike atypical femoral fractures that emerge from failure of microdamage repair in cortical bone with long-term antiresorptive treatment, RVF originate from the synergy of rapid bone resorption and accelerated microdamage accumulation in trabecular bone triggered by the discontinuation of highly potent reversible antiresorptives. CONCLUSIONS Studies are urgently needed to i) prove the underlying pathophysiological processes suggested above, ii) establish the predictive criteria exposing patients to an increased risk of RVF, and iii) determine appropriate treatment regimens to be applied in such patients.
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BACKGROUND The impact of early treatment with immunomodulators (IM) and/or TNF antagonists on bowel damage in Crohn's disease (CD) patients is unknown. AIM To assess whether 'early treatment' with IM and/or TNF antagonists, defined as treatment within a 2-year period from the date of CD diagnosis, was associated with development of lesser number of disease complications when compared to 'late treatment', which was defined as treatment initiation after >2 years from the time of CD diagnosis. METHODS Data from the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analysed. The following outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard modelling: bowel strictures, perianal fistulas, internal fistulas, intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any of the aforementioned complications. RESULTS The 'early treatment' group of 292 CD patients was compared to the 'late treatment' group of 248 CD patients. We found that 'early treatment' with IM or TNF antagonists alone was associated with reduced risk of bowel strictures [hazard ratio (HR) 0.496, P = 0.004 for IM; HR 0.276, P = 0.018 for TNF antagonists]. Furthermore, 'early treatment' with IM was associated with reduced risk of undergoing intestinal surgery (HR 0.322, P = 0.005), and perianal surgery (HR 0.361, P = 0.042), as well as developing any complication (HR 0.567, P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS Treatment with immunomodulators or TNF antagonists within the first 2 years of CD diagnosis was associated with reduced risk of developing bowel strictures, when compared to initiating these drugs >2 years after diagnosis. Furthermore, early immunomodulators treatment was associated with reduced risk of intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any complication.
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BACKGROUND There are limited published data on the outcomes of infants starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in routine care in Southern Africa. This study aimed to examine the baseline characteristics and outcomes of infants initiating ART. METHODS We analyzed prospectively collected cohort data from routine ART initiation in infants from 11 cohorts contributing to the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. We included ART-naive HIV-infected infants aged <12 months initiating ≥3 antiretroviral drugs between 2004 and 2012. Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated for mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), transfer out, and virological suppression. We used Cox proportional hazard models stratified by cohort to determine baseline characteristics associated with outcomes mortality and virological suppression. RESULTS The median (interquartile range) age at ART initiation of 4945 infants was 5.9 months (3.7-8.7) with follow-up of 11.2 months (2.8-20.0). At ART initiation, 77% had WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 disease and 87% were severely immunosuppressed. Three-year mortality probability was 16% and LTFU 29%. Severe immunosuppression, WHO stage 3 or 4, anemia, being severely underweight, and initiation of treatment before 2010 were associated with higher mortality. At 12 months after ART initiation, 17% of infants were severely immunosuppressed and the probability of attaining virological suppression was 56%. CONCLUSIONS Most infants initiating ART in Southern Africa had severe disease with high probability of LTFU and mortality on ART. Although the majority of infants remaining in care showed immune recovery and virological suppression, these responses were suboptimal.
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BACKGROUND Impact of contemporary treatment of pre-invasive breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]) on long-term outcomes remains poorly defined. We aimed to evaluate national treatment trends for DCIS and to determine their impact on disease-specific (DSS) and overall survival (OS). METHODS The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry was queried for patients diagnosed with DCIS from 1991 to 2010. Treatment pattern trends were analyzed using Cochran-Armitage trend test. Survival analyses were performed using inverse probability weights (IPW)-adjusted competing risk analyses for DSS and Cox proportional hazard regression for OS. All tests performed were two-sided. RESULTS One hundred twenty-one thousand and eighty DCIS patients were identified. The greatest proportion of patients was treated with lumpectomy and radiation therapy (43.0%), followed by lumpectomy alone (26.5%) and unilateral (23.8%) or bilateral mastectomy (4.5%) with significant shifts over time. The rate of sentinel lymph node biopsy increased from 9.7% to 67.1% for mastectomy and from 1.4% to 17.8% for lumpectomy. Compared with mastectomy, OS was higher for lumpectomy with radiation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76 to 0.83, P < .001) and lower for lumpectomy alone (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.23, P < .001). IPW-adjusted ten-year DSS was highest in lumpectomy with XRT (98.9%), followed by mastectomy (98.5%), and lumpectomy alone (98.4%). CONCLUSIONS We identified substantial shifts in treatment patterns for DCIS from 1991 to 2010. When outcomes between locoregional treatment options were compared, we observed greater differences in OS than DSS, likely reflecting both a prevailing patient selection bias as well as clinically negligible differences in breast cancer outcomes between groups.
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OBJECTIVE To assess whether palliative primary tumor resection in colorectal cancer patients with incurable stage IV disease is associated with improved survival. BACKGROUND There is a heated debate regarding whether or not an asymptomatic primary tumor should be removed in patients with incurable stage IV colorectal disease. METHODS Stage IV colorectal cancer patients were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 1998 and 2009. Patients undergoing surgery to metastatic sites were excluded. Overall survival and cancer-specific survival were compared between patients with and without palliative primary tumor resection using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models and stratified propensity score methods. RESULTS Overall, 37,793 stage IV colorectal cancer patients were identified. Of those, 23,004 (60.9%) underwent palliative primary tumor resection. The rate of patients undergoing palliative primary cancer resection decreased from 68.4% in 1998 to 50.7% in 2009 (P < 0.001). In Cox regression analysis after propensity score matching primary cancer resection was associated with a significantly improved overall survival [hazard ratio (HR) of death = 0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.39-0.42, P < 0.001] and cancer-specific survival (HR of death = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.38-0.40, P < 0.001). The benefit of palliative primary cancer resection persisted during the time period 1998 to 2009 with HRs equal to or less than 0.47 for both overall and cancer-specific survival. CONCLUSIONS On the basis of this population-based cohort of stage IV colorectal cancer patients, palliative primary tumor resection was associated with improved overall and cancer-specific survival. Therefore, the dogma that an asymptomatic primary tumor never should be resected in patients with unresectable colorectal cancer metastases must be questioned.
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Whether anticoagulation management practices are associated with improved outcomes in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. Thus, we aimed to examine whether practices recommended by the American College of Chest Physicians guidelines are associated with outcomes in elderly patients with VTE. We studied 991 patients aged ≥65 years with acute VTE in a Swiss prospective multicenter cohort study and assessed the adherence to four management practices: parenteral anticoagulation ≥5 days, INR ≥2.0 for ≥24 hours before stopping parenteral anticoagulation, early start with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) ≤24 hours of VTE diagnosis, and the use of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) or fondaparinux. The outcomes were all-cause mortality, VTE recurrence, and major bleeding at 6 months, and the length of hospital stay (LOS). We used Cox regression and lognormal survival models, adjusting for patient characteristics. Overall, 9% of patients died, 3% had VTE recurrence, and 7% major bleeding. Early start with VKA was associated with a lower risk of major bleeding (adjusted hazard ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.20-0.71). Early start with VKA (adjusted time ratio [TR] 0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.86) and use of LMWH/fondaparinux (adjusted TR 0.87, 95% CI 0.78-0.97) were associated with a shorter LOS. An INR ≥2.0 for ≥24 hours before stopping parenteral anticoagulants was associated with a longer LOS (adjusted TR 1.2, 95% CI 1.08-1.33). In elderly patients with VTE, the adherence to recommended anticoagulation management practices showed mixed results. In conclusion, only early start with VKA and use of parenteral LMWH/fondaparinux were associated with better outcomes.
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Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of the field of planet formation theory as a whole. Because there are important uncertainties in this theory, it is likely that the global models will in future undergo significant modifications. Despite these limitations, global models can already now yield many testable predictions. With future global models addressing the geophysical characteristics of the synthetic planets, it should eventually become possible to make predictions about the habitability of planets based on their formation and evolution.
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BACKGROUND Cardiac troponin detected by new-generation, highly sensitive assays predicts clinical outcomes among patients with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) treated medically. The prognostic value of baseline high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) elevation in SCAD patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary interventions is not well established. This study assessed the association of preprocedural levels of hs-cTnT with 1-year clinical outcomes among SCAD patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS AND RESULTS Between 2010 and 2014, 6974 consecutive patients were prospectively enrolled in the Bern Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Registry. Among patients with SCAD (n=2029), 527 (26%) had elevated preprocedural hs-cTnT above the upper reference limit of 14 ng/L. The primary end point, mortality within 1 year, occurred in 20 patients (1.4%) with normal hs-cTnT versus 39 patients (7.7%) with elevated baseline hs-cTnT (P<0.001). Patients with elevated hs-cTnT had increased risks of all-cause (hazard ratio 5.73; 95% confidence intervals 3.34-9.83; P<0.001) and cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 4.68; 95% confidence interval 2.12-10.31; P<0.001). Preprocedural hs-TnT elevation remained an independent predictor of 1-year mortality after adjustment for relevant risk factors, including age, sex, and renal failure (adjusted hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.10-3.92; P=0.024). A graded mortality risk was observed across higher tertiles of elevated preprocedural hs-cTnT, but not among patients with hs-cTnT below the upper reference limit. CONCLUSIONS Preprocedural elevation of hs-cTnT is observed in one fourth of SCAD patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention. Increased levels of preprocedural hs-cTnT are proportionally related to the risk of death and emerged as independent predictors of all-cause mortality within 1 year. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02241291.