87 resultados para PROPENSITY SCORE METHODS
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BACKGROUND: The estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) has been used to produce a numerical estimate of expected mortality and morbidity after elective gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was to validate E-PASS in a selected cohort of patients requiring liver resections (LR). METHODS: In this retrospective study, E-PASS predictor equations for morbidity and mortality were applied to the prospective data from 243 patients requiring LR. The observed rates were compared with predicted rates using Fisher's exact test. The discriminative capability of E-PASS was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The observed and predicted overall mortality rates were both 3.3% and the morbidity rates were 31.3 and 26.9%, respectively. There was a significant difference in the comprehensive risk scores for deceased and surviving patients (p = 0.043). However, the scores for patients with or without complications were not significantly different (p = 0.120). Subsequent ROC curve analysis revealed a poor predictive accuracy for morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The E-PASS score seems to effectively predict mortality in this specific group of patients but is a poor predictor of complications. A new modified logistic regression might be required for LR in order to better predict the postoperative outcome.
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BACKGROUND Muscle strength greatly influences gait kinematics. The question was whether this association is similar in different diseases. METHODS Data from instrumented gait analysis of 716 patients were retrospectively assessed. The effect of muscle strength on gait deviations, namely the gait profile score (GPS) was evaluated by means of generalised least square models. This was executed for seven different patient groups. The groups were formed according to the type of disease: orthopaedic/neurologic, uni-/bilateral affection, and flaccid/spastic muscles. RESULTS Muscle strength had a negative effect on GPS values, which did not significantly differ amongst the different patient groups. However, an offset of the GPS regression line was found, which was mostly dependent on the basic disease. Surprisingly, spastic patients, who have reduced strength and additionally spasticity in clinical examination, and flaccid neurologic patients showed the same offset. Patients with additional lack of trunk control (Tetraplegia) showed the largest offset. CONCLUSION Gait kinematics grossly depend on muscle strength. This was seen in patients with very different pathologies. Nevertheless, optimal correction of biomechanics and muscle strength may still not lead to a normal gait, especially in that of neurologic patients. The basic disease itself has an additional effect on gait deviations expressed as a GPS-offset of the linear regression line.
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OBJECTIVES This study sought to validate the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS), in order to further legitimize its clinical application. BACKGROUND The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score allows for an individualized prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention. It is composed of a "Core" Model (anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction), and "Extended" Model (composed of an additional 6 clinical variables), and has previously been cross validated in 7 contemporary stent trials (>6,000 patients). METHODS One-year all-cause death was analyzed in 2,627 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. Mortality predictions from the Core and Extended Models were studied with respect to discrimination, that is, separation of those with and without 1-year all-cause death (assessed by the concordance [C] statistic), and calibration, that is, agreement between observed and predicted outcomes (assessed with validation plots). Decision curve analyses, which weight the harms (false positives) against benefits (true positives) of using a risk score to make mortality predictions, were undertaken to assess clinical usefulness. RESULTS In the ACUITY trial, the median SYNTAX score was 9.0 (interquartile range 5.0 to 16.0); approximately 40% of patients had 3-vessel disease, 29% diabetes, and 85% underwent drug-eluting stent implantation. Validation plots confirmed agreement between observed and predicted mortality. The Core and Extended Models demonstrated substantial improvements in the discriminative ability for 1-year all-cause death compared with the anatomical SYNTAX score in isolation (C-statistics: SYNTAX score: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.71; Core Model: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.79; Extended Model: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.83). Decision curve analyses confirmed the increasing ability to correctly identify patients who would die at 1 year with the Extended Model versus the Core Model versus the anatomical SYNTAX score, over a wide range of thresholds for mortality risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the anatomical SYNTAX score alone, the Core and Extended Models of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score more accurately predicted individual 1-year mortality in patients presenting with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. These findings support the clinical application of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score.
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Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomized trials that include patient-reported outcomes (PROs) often provide crucial information for patients, clinicians and policy-makers facing challenging health care decisions. Based on emerging methods, guidance on improving the interpretability of meta-analysis of patient-reported outcomes, typically continuous in nature, is likely to enhance decision-making. The objective of this paper is to summarize approaches to enhancing the interpretability of pooled estimates of PROs in meta-analyses. When differences in PROs between groups are statistically significant, decision-makers must be able to interpret the magnitude of effect. This is challenging when, as is often the case, clinical trial investigators use different measurement instruments for the same construct within and between individual randomized trials. For such cases, in addition to pooling results as a standardized mean difference, we recommend that systematic review authors use other methods to present results such as relative (relative risk, odds ratio) or absolute (risk difference) dichotomized treatment effects, complimented by presentation in either: natural units (e.g. overall depression reduced by 2.4 points when measured on a 50-point Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression); minimal important difference units (e.g. where 1.0 unit represents the smallest difference in depression that patients, on average, perceive as important the depression score was 0.38 (95%CI 0.30 to 0.47) units less than the control group); or a ratio of means (e.g. where the mean in the treatment group is divided by the mean in the control group, the ratio of means is 1.27, representing a 27%relative reduction in the mean depression score).
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OBJECTIVES: To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome. METHODS: A total of 1061 HIV patients diagnosed with TB in four regions, Central/Northern, Southern and Eastern Europe and Argentina, between January 2004 and December 2006 were enrolled in the TB-HIV study. A weighted HCI score (range 0–5), based on independent prognostic factors identified in multivariable Cox models and the final score, included performance of TB drug susceptibility testing (DST), an initial TB regimen containing a rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide, and start of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART). RESULTS: The mean HCI score was highest in Central/Northern Europe (3.2, 95%CI 3.1–3.3) and lowest in Eastern Europe (1.6, 95%CI 1.5–1.7). The cumulative probability of death 1 year after TB diagnosis decreased from 39% (95%CI 31–48) among patients with an HCI score of 0, to 9% (95%CI 6–13) among those with a score of ≥4. In an adjusted Cox model, a 1-unit increase in the HCI score was associated with 27% reduced mortality (relative hazard 0.73, 95%CI 0.64–0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that DST, standard anti-tuberculosis treatment and early cART may improve outcome for TB-HIV patients. The proposed HCI score provides a tool for future research and monitoring of the management of TB-HIV patients. The highest HCI score may serve as a benchmark to assess TB-HIV management, encouraging continuous health care improvement.
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BACKGROUND The role of surgery for patients with metastatic esophagogastric adenocarcinoma (EGC) is not defined. The purpose of this study was to define selection criteria for patients who may benefit from resection following systemic chemotherapy. METHODS From 1987 to 2007, 160 patients presenting with synchronous metastatic EGC (cT3/4 cNany cM0/1 finally pM1) were treated with chemotherapy followed by resection of the primary tumor and metastases. Clinical and histopathological data, site and number of metastases were analyzed. A prognostic score was established and validated in a second cohort from another academic center (n = 32). RESULTS The median survival (MS) in cohort 1 was 13.6 months. Significant prognostic factors were grading (p = 0.046), ypT- (p = 0.001), ypN- (p = 0.011) and R-category (p = 0.015), lymphangiosis (p = 0.021), clinical (p = 0.004) and histopathological response (p = 0.006), but not localization or number of metastases. The addition of grading (G1/2:0 points; G3/4:1 points), clinical response (responder: 0; nonresponder: 1) and R-category (complete:0; R1:1; R2:2) defines two groups of patients with significantly different survival (p = 0.001) [low risk group (Score 0/1), n = 22: MS 35.3 months, 3-year-survival 47.6%); high risk group (Score 2/3/4) n = 126: MS 12.0 months, 3-year-survival 14.2%]. The score showed a strong trend in the validation cohort (p = 0.063) [low risk group (MS not reached, 3-year-survival 57.1%); high risk group (MS 19.9 months, 3-year-survival 6.7%)]. CONCLUSION We observed long-term survival after resection of metastatic EGC. A simple clinical score may help to identify a subgroup of patients with a high chance of benefit from resection. However, the accurate estimation of achieving a complete resection, which is an integral element of the score, remains challenging.
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BACKGROUND For esophageal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, postoperative staging classifications initially developed for non-pretreated tumors may not accurately predict prognosis. We tested whether a multifactorial TNM-based histopathologic prognostic score (PRSC), which additionally applies to tumor regression, may improve estimation of prognosis compared with the current Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer (UICC) staging system. PATIENTS AND METHODS We evaluated esophageal adenocarcinoma specimens following cis/oxaliplatin-based therapy from two separate centers (center 1: n = 280; and center 2: n = 80). For the PRSC, each factor was assigned a value from 1 to 2 (ypT0-2 = 1 point; ypT3-4 = 2 points; ypN0 = 1 point; ypN1-3 = 2 points; ≤50 % residual tumor/tumor bed = 1 point; >50 % residual tumor/tumor bed = 2 points). The three-tiered PRSC was based on the sum value of these factors (group A: 3; group B: 4-5; group C: 6) and was correlated with patients' overall survival (OS). RESULTS The PRSC groups showed significant differences with respect to OS (p < 0.0001; hazard ratio [HR] 2.2 [95 % CI 1.7-2.8]), which could also be demonstrated in both cohorts separately (center 1 p < 0.0001; HR 2.48 [95 % CI 1.8-3.3] and center 2 p = 0.015; HR 1.7 [95 % CI 1.1-2.6]). Moreover, the PRSC showed a more accurate prognostic discrimination than the current UICC staging system (p < 0.0001; HR 1.15 [95 % CI 1.1-1.2]), and assessment of two goodness-of-fit criteria (Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion) clearly supported the superiority of PRSC over the UICC staging. CONCLUSION The proposed PRSC clearly identifies three subgroups with different outcomes and may be more helpful for guiding further therapeutic decisions than the UICC staging system.
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BACKGROUND Areal bone mineral density is predictive for fracture risk. Microstructural bone parameters evaluated at the appendicular skeleton by high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) display differences between healthy patients and fracture patients. With the simple geometry of the cortex at the distal tibial diaphysis, a cortical index of the tibia combining material and mechanical properties correlated highly with bone strength ex vivo. The trabecular bone score derived from the scan of the lumbar spine by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) correlated ex vivo with the micro architectural parameters. It is unknown if these microstructural correlations could be made in healthy premenopausal women. METHODS Randomly selected women between 20-40 years of age were examined by DXA and HR-pQCT at the standard regions of interest and at customized sub regions to focus on cortical and trabecular parameters of strength separately. For cortical strength, at the distal tibia the volumetric cortical index was calculated directly from HR-pQCT and the areal cortical index was derived from the DXA scan using a Canny threshold-based tool. For trabecular strength, the trabecular bone score was calculated based on the DXA scan of the lumbar spine and was compared with the corresponding parameters derived from the HR-pQCT measurements at radius and tibia. RESULTS Seventy-two healthy women were included (average age 33.8 years, average BMI 23.2 kg/m(2)). The areal cortical index correlated highly with the volumetric cortical index at the distal tibia (R = 0.798). The trabecular bone score correlated moderately with the microstructural parameters of the trabecular bone. CONCLUSION This study in randomly selected premenopausal women demonstrated that microstructural parameters of the bone evaluated by HR-pQCT correlated with the DXA derived parameters of skeletal regions containing predominantly cortical or cancellous bone. Whether these indexes are suitable for better predictions of the fracture risk deserves further investigation.
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AIM The aim of this study was to evaluate whether coronary artery disease (CAD) severity exerts a gradient of risk in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 445 patients with severe AS undergoing TAVI were included into a prospective registry between 2007 and 2012. The preoperative SYNTAX score (SS) was determined from baseline coronary angiograms. In case of revascularization prior to TAVI, residual SS (rSS) was also determined. Clinical outcomes were compared between patients without CAD (n = 158), patients with low SS (0-22, n = 207), and patients with high SS (SS >22, n = 80). The pre-specified primary endpoint was the composite of cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction (MI). At 1 year, CAD severity was associated with higher rates of the primary endpoint (no CAD: 12.5%, low SS: 16.1%, high SS: 29.6%; P = 0.016). This was driven by differences in cardiovascular mortality (no CAD: 8.6%, low SS: 13.6%, high SS: 20.4%; P = 0.029), whereas the risk of stroke (no CAD: 5.1%, low SS: 3.3%, high SS: 6.7%; P = 0.79) and MI (no CAD: 1.5%, low SS: 1.1%, high SS: 4.0%; P = 0.54) was similar across the three groups. Patients with high SS received less complete revascularization as indicated by a higher rSS (21.2 ± 12.0 vs. 4.0 ± 4.4, P < 0.001) compared with patients with low SS. High rSS tertile (>14) was associated with higher rates of the primary endpoint at 1 year (no CAD: 12.5%, low rSS: 16.5%, high rSS: 26.3%, P = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS Severity of CAD appears to be associated with impaired clinical outcomes at 1 year after TAVI. Patients with SS >22 receive less complete revascularization and have a higher risk of cardiovascular death, stroke, or MI than patients without CAD or low SS.
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Medial arterial calcification is accelerated in patients with CKD and strongly associated with increased arterial rigidity and cardiovascular mortality. Recently, a novel in vitro blood test that provides an overall measure of calcification propensity by monitoring the maturation time (T50) of calciprotein particles in serum was described. We used this test to measure serum T50 in a prospective cohort of 184 patients with stages 3 and 4 CKD, with a median of 5.3 years of follow-up. At baseline, the major determinants of serum calcification propensity included higher serum phosphate, ionized calcium, increased bone osteoclastic activity, and lower free fetuin-A, plasma pyrophosphate, and albumin concentrations, which accounted for 49% of the variation in this parameter. Increased serum calcification propensity at baseline independently associated with aortic pulse wave velocity in the complete cohort and progressive aortic stiffening over 30 months in a subgroup of 93 patients. After adjustment for demographic, renal, cardiovascular, and biochemical covariates, including serum phosphate, risk of death among patients in the lowest T50 tertile was more than two times the risk among patients in the highest T50 tertile (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.4; P=0.04). This effect was lost, however, after additional adjustment for aortic stiffness, suggesting a shared causal pathway. Longitudinally, serum calcification propensity measurements remained temporally stable (intraclass correlation=0.81). These results suggest that serum T50 may be helpful as a biomarker in designing methods to improve defenses against vascular calcification.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The DRAGON score predicts functional outcome in the hyperacute phase of intravenous thrombolysis treatment of ischemic stroke patients. We aimed to validate the score in a large multicenter cohort in anterior and posterior circulation. METHODS Prospectively collected data of consecutive ischemic stroke patients who received intravenous thrombolysis in 12 stroke centers were merged (n=5471). We excluded patients lacking data necessary to calculate the score and patients with missing 3-month modified Rankin scale scores. The final cohort comprised 4519 eligible patients. We assessed the performance of the DRAGON score with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the whole cohort for both good (modified Rankin scale score, 0-2) and miserable (modified Rankin scale score, 5-6) outcomes. RESULTS Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.84 (0.82-0.85) for miserable outcome and 0.82 (0.80-0.83) for good outcome. Proportions of patients with good outcome were 96%, 93%, 78%, and 0% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, and 8 to 10 score points, respectively. Proportions of patients with miserable outcome were 0%, 2%, 4%, 89%, and 97% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, 8, and 9 to 10 points, respectively. When tested separately for anterior and posterior circulation, there was no difference in performance (P=0.55); areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.84 (0.83-0.86) and 0.82 (0.78-0.87), respectively. No sex-related difference in performance was observed (P=0.25). CONCLUSIONS The DRAGON score showed very good performance in the large merged cohort in both anterior and posterior circulation strokes. The DRAGON score provides rapid estimation of patient prognosis and supports clinical decision-making in the hyperacute phase of stroke care (eg, when invasive add-on strategies are considered).
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BACKGROUND To investigate the performance of the MI Sxscore in a multicentre randomised trial of patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). METHODS AND RESULTS The MI Sxscore was prospectively determined among 1132 STEMI patients enrolled into the COMFORTABLE AMI trial, which randomised patients to treatment with bare-metal (BMS) or biolimus-eluting (BES) stents. Patient- (death, myocardial infarction, any revascularisation) and device-oriented (cardiac death, target-vessel MI, target lesion revascularisation) major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) were compared across MI Sxscore tertiles and according to stent type. The median MI SXscore was 14 (IQR: 9-21). Patients were divided into tertiles of Sxscorelow (≤10), Sxscoreintermediate (11-18) and Sxscorehigh (≥19). At 1year, patient-oriented MACE occurred in 15% of the Sxscorehigh, 9% of the Sxscoreintermediate and 5% of the Sxscorelow tertiles (p<0.001), whereas device-oriented MACE occurred in 8% of the Sxscorehigh, 6% of the Sxscoreintermediate and 4% of the Sxscorelow tertiles (p=0.03). Addition of the MI Sxscore to the TIMI risk score improved prediction of patient- (c-statistic value increase from 0.63 to 0.69) and device-oriented MACEs (c-statistic value increase from 0.65 to 0.70). Differences in the risk for device-oriented MACE between BMS and BES were evident among Sxscorehigh (13% vs. 4% HR 0.33 (0.15-0.74), p=0.007 rather than those in Sxscorelow: 4% vs. 3% HR 0.68 (0.24-1.97), p=0.48) tertiles. CONCLUSIONS The MI Sxscore allows risk stratification of patient- and device-oriented MACEs among patients undergoing PPCI. The addition of the MI Sxscore to the TIMI risk score is of incremental prognostic value among patients undergoing PPCI for treatment of STEMI.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The use of thrombolysis in patients with minor neurological deficits and large vessel occlusion is controversial. METHODS We compared the outcome of patients with low National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores and large vessel occlusions between thrombolysed and non-thrombolysed patients. RESULTS 88 (1.7%) of 5312 consecutive patients with acute (within 24 h) ischaemic stroke had occlusions of the internal carotid or the main stem of the middle cerebral artery and baseline NIHSS scores ≤5.47 (53.4%) were treated without thrombolysis, and 41 (46.6%) received intravenous thrombolysis, endovascular therapy or both. Successful recanalisation on MR or CT angiography at 24 h was more often observed in thrombolysed than in non-thrombolysed patients (78.9% versus 10.5%; p<0.001). Neurological deterioration (increase of NIHSS score ≥1 compared to baseline) was observed in 22.7% of non-thrombolysed versus 10.3% of thrombolysed after 24 h (p=0.002), in 33.3% versus 12.5% at hospital discharge (p=0.015) and in 41.4% versus 15% at 3 months (p<0.001). Symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage occurred in two (asymptomatic in five) thrombolysed and in none (asymptomatic in three) non-thrombolysed. Thrombolysis was an independent predictor of favourable outcome (p=0.030) but not survival (p=0.606) at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS Non-thrombolysed patients with mild deficits and large vessel occlusion deteriorated significantly more often within 3 months than thrombolysed patients. Symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhages occurred in less than 5% of patients in both groups. These data suggest that thrombolysis is safe and effective in these patients. Therefore, randomised trials in patients with large vessel occlusions and mild or rapidly improving symptoms are needed.
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AIM To assess the prevalence of vascular dementia, mixed dementia and Alzheimer's disease in patients with atrial fibrillation, and to evaluate the accuracy of the Hachinski ischemic score for these subtypes of dementia. METHODS A nested case-control study was carried out. A total of 103 of 784 consecutive patients evaluated for cognitive status at the Ambulatory Geriatric Clinic had a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. Controls without atrial fibrillation were randomly selected from the remaining 681 patients using a 1:2 matching for sex, age and education. RESULTS The prevalence of vascular dementia was twofold in patients with atrial fibrillation compared with controls (21.4% vs 10.7%, P = 0.024). Alzheimer's disease was also more frequent in the group with atrial fibrillation (12.6% vs 7.3%, P = 0.046), whereas mixed dementia had a similar distribution. The Hachinski ischemic score poorly discriminated between dementia subtypes, with misclassification rates between 46% (95% CI 28-66) and 70% (95% CI 55-83). In patients with atrial fibrillation, these rates ranged from 55% (95% CI 32-77) to 69% (95% CI 39-91%). In patients in whom the diagnosis of dementia was excluded, the Hachinski ischemic score suggested the presence of vascular dementia in 11% and mixed dementia in 30%. CONCLUSIONS Vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease, but not mixed dementia, are more prevalent in patients with atrial fibrillation. The discriminative accuracy of the Hachinski ischemic score for dementia subtypes in atrial fibrillation is poor, with a significant proportion of misclassifications.
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REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY In clinical practice, veterinarians often depend on owner-reported signs to assess the clinical course of horses with recurrent airway obstruction (RAO). OBJECTIVES To test whether owner-reported information on frequency of coughing and observation of nasal discharge are associated with clinical, cytological and bronchoprovocation findings in RAO-affected horses in nonstandardised field conditions. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional study comparing healthy and RAO-affected horses. METHODS Twenty-eight healthy and 34 RAO-affected Swiss Warmblood horses were grouped according to owner-reported 'coughing frequency' and 'nasal discharge'. Differences between these groups were examined using clinical examination, blood gas analyses, endoscopic mucus scores, cytology of tracheobronchial secretion and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, and airway hyperresponsiveness determined by plethysmography with histamine bronchoprovocation. RESULTS Frequently coughing horses differed most markedly from healthy control animals. Histamine bronchoprovocation-derived parameters were significantly different between the healthy control group and all RAO groups. Mucus grades and tracheobronchial secretion and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid neutrophil percentages had particularly high variability, with overlap of findings between groups. Owner satisfaction with the clinical status of the horse was high, even in severely affected horses. CONCLUSIONS Owner-reported coughing and nasal discharge are associated with specific clinical and diagnostic findings in RAO-affected horses in field settings. While airway hyperresponsiveness differentiates best between healthy horses and asymptomatic RAO-affected horses, the absence of coughing and nasal discharge does not rule out significant neutrophilic airway inflammation. Owner satisfaction with the clinical status of the horse was uninformative.