Iron Fertilization of the Subantarctic Ocean During the Last Ice Age

John H. Martin, who discovered widespread iron limitation of ocean productivity, proposed that dust-borne iron fertilization of Southern Ocean phytoplankton caused the ice age reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). In a sediment core from the Subantarctic Atlantic, we measured foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes to reconstruct ice age nitrate consumption, burial fluxes of iron, and proxies for productivity. Peak glacial times and millennial cold events are characterized by increases in dust flux, productivity, and the degree of nitrate consumption; this combination is uniquely consistent with Subantarctic iron fertilization. The associated strengthening of the Southern Ocean’s biological pump can explain the lowering of CO2 at the transition from mid-climate states to full ice age conditions as well as the millennial-scale CO2 oscillations.

Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean

A substantial amount of the atmospheric carbon taken up on land through photosynthesis and chemical weathering is transported laterally along the aquatic continuum from upland terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean. So far, global carbon budget estimates have implicitly assumed that the transformation and lateral transport of carbon along this aquatic continuum has remained unchanged since pre-industrial times. A synthesis of published work reveals the magnitude of present-day lateral carbon fluxes from land to ocean, and the extent to which human activities have altered these fluxes. We show that anthropogenic perturbation may have increased the flux of carbon to inland waters by as much as 1.0 Pg C yr(-1) since pre-industrial times, mainly owing to enhanced carbon export from soils. Most of this additional carbon input to upstream rivers is either emitted back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (similar to 0.4 Pg C yr(-1)) or sequestered in sediments (similar to 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) along the continuum of freshwater bodies, estuaries and coastal waters, leaving only a perturbation carbon input of similar to 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) to the open ocean. According to our analysis, terrestrial ecosystems store similar to 0.9 Pg C yr(-1) at present, which is in agreement with results from forest inventories but significantly differs from the figure of 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) previously estimated when ignoring changes in lateral carbon fluxes. We suggest that carbon fluxes along the land-ocean aquatic continuum need to be included in global carbon dioxide budgets.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

Influence of the Central American Seaway and Drake Passage on ocean circulation and neodymium isotopes: A model study

The sensitivity of the neodymium isotopic composition (ϵNd) to tectonic rearrangements of seaways is investigated using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) is simulated, as well as the opening and deepening of Drake Passage (DP). Multiple series of equilibrium simulations with various intermediate depths are performed for both seaways, providing insight into ϵNd and circulation responses to progressive throughflow evolutions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of these responses to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the neodymium boundary source is examined. Modeled ϵNd changes are compared to sediment core and ferromanganese (Fe-Mn) crust data. The model results indicate that the North Atlantic ϵNd response to the CAS shoaling is highly dependent on the AMOC state, i.e., on the AMOC strength before the shoaling to shallow depths (preclosure). Three scenarios based on different AMOC forcings are discussed, of which the model-data agreement favors a shallow preclosure (Miocene) AMOC (∼6 Sv). The DP opening causes a rather complex circulation response, resulting in an initial South Atlantic ϵNd decrease preceding a larger increase. This feature may be specific to our model setup, which induces a vigorous CAS throughflow that is strongly anticorrelated to the DP throughflow. In freshwater experiments following the DP deepening, ODP Site 1090 is mainly influenced by AMOC and DP throughflow changes, while ODP Site 689 is more strongly influenced by Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation and CAS throughflow changes. The boundary source uncertainty is largest for shallow seaways and at shallow sites.

Modelling Nd-isotopes with a coarse resolution ocean circulation model: Sensitivities to model parameters and source/sink distributions

The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition (Nd) of seawater is a quasi-conservative tracer of water mass mixing and is assumed to hold great potential for paleoceanographic studies. Here we present a comprehensive approach for the simulation of the two neodymium isotopes 143Nd, and 144Nd using the Bern3D model, a low resolution ocean model. The high computational efficiency of the Bern3D model in conjunction with our comprehensive approach allows us to systematically and extensively explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and Nd to the parametrisation of sources and sinks. Previous studies have been restricted in doing so either by the chosen approach or by computational costs. Our study thus presents the most comprehensive survey of the marine Nd cycle to date. Our model simulates both Nd concentrations as well as Nd in good agreement with observations. Nd covaries with salinity, thus underlining its potential as a water mass proxy. Results confirm that the continental margins are required as a Nd source to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. We estimate this source to be slightly smaller than reported in previous studies and find that above a certain magnitude its magnitude affects Nd only to a small extent. On the other hand, the parametrisation of the reversible scavenging considerably affects the ability of the model to simulate both, Nd concentrations and Nd. Furthermore, despite their small contribution, we find dust and rivers to be important components of the Nd cycle. In additional experiments, we systematically varied the diapycnal diffusivity as well as the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux to explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and its isotopic signature to the strength and geometry of the overturning circulation. These experiments reveal that Nd concentrations and Nd are comparatively little affected by variations in diapycnal diffusivity and the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux. In contrast, an adequate representation of Nd sources and sinks is crucial to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. The good agreement of our results with observations paves the way for the evaluation of the paleoceanographic potential of Nd in further model studies.

Quantifying uncertainty on Pareto fronts with Gaussian process conditional simulations

Multi-objective optimization algorithms aim at finding Pareto-optimal solutions. Recovering Pareto fronts or Pareto sets from a limited number of function evaluations are challenging problems. A popular approach in the case of expensive-to-evaluate functions is to appeal to metamodels. Kriging has been shown efficient as a base for sequential multi-objective optimization, notably through infill sampling criteria balancing exploitation and exploration such as the Expected Hypervolume Improvement. Here we consider Kriging metamodels not only for selecting new points, but as a tool for estimating the whole Pareto front and quantifying how much uncertainty remains on it at any stage of Kriging-based multi-objective optimization algorithms. Our approach relies on the Gaussian process interpretation of Kriging, and bases upon conditional simulations. Using concepts from random set theory, we propose to adapt the Vorob’ev expectation and deviation to capture the variability of the set of non-dominated points. Numerical experiments illustrate the potential of the proposed workflow, and it is shown on examples how Gaussian process simulations and the estimated Vorob’ev deviation can be used to monitor the ability of Kriging-based multi-objective optimization algorithms to accurately learn the Pareto front.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.