Representation via Probabilities: Models of Probabilistic Modeling

How do probabilistic models represent their targets and how do they allow us to learn about them? The answer to this question depends on a number of details, in particular on the meaning of the probabilities involved. To classify the options, a minimalist conception of representation (Su\'arez 2004) is adopted: Modelers devise substitutes (``sources'') of their targets and investigate them to infer something about the target. Probabilistic models allow us to infer probabilities about the target from probabilities about the source. This leads to a framework in which we can systematically distinguish between different models of probabilistic modeling. I develop a fully Bayesian view of probabilistic modeling, but I argue that, as an alternative, Bayesian degrees of belief about the target may be derived from ontic probabilities about the source. Remarkably, some accounts of ontic probabilities can avoid problems if they are supposed to apply to sources only.

Patterns of psychological adaptation to divorce

Despite the increase in divorces after a long relationship, this trend remains a neglected research topic. The present contribution seeks to identify patterns of psychological adaptation to divorce after a long-term marriage. Data from a questionnaire study with 308 persons aged 45–65 years, who divorced after having been married for an average of 25 years, are presented. Exploratory latent profile analysis with various well-being outcomes revealed five groups: one with average adapted, one with resilients, and three small groups with seriously affected individuals. Discriminant variables between the groups were personality, time since separation, a new relationship, and financial situation. Age, gender, and length of marriage played a marginal role; satisfaction with the former marriage and initiator status were not relevant.

Integrating fragmented evidence by network meta-analysis: relative effectiveness of psychological interventions for adults with post-traumatic stress disorder

BACKGROUND To summarize the available evidence on the effectiveness of psychological interventions for patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). METHOD We searched bibliographic databases and reference lists of relevant systematic reviews and meta-analyses for randomized controlled trials that compared specific psychological interventions for adults with PTSD symptoms either head-to-head or against control interventions using non-specific intervention components, or against wait-list control. Two investigators independently extracted the data and assessed trial characteristics. RESULTS The analyses included 4190 patients in 66 trials. An initial network meta-analysis showed large effect sizes (ESs) for all specific psychological interventions (ESs between -1.10 and -1.37) and moderate effects of psychological interventions that were used to control for non-specific intervention effects (ESs -0.58 and -0.62). ES differences between various types of specific psychological interventions were absent to small (ES differences between 0.00 and 0.27). Considerable between-trial heterogeneity occurred (τ 2 = 0.30). Stratified analyses revealed that trials that adhered to DSM-III/IV criteria for PTSD were associated with larger ESs. However, considerable heterogeneity remained. Heterogeneity was reduced in trials with adequate concealment of allocation and in large-sized trials. We found evidence for small-study bias. CONCLUSIONS Our findings show that patients with a formal diagnosis of PTSD and those with subclinical PTSD symptoms benefit from different psychological interventions. We did not identify any intervention that was consistently superior to other specific psychological interventions. However, the robustness of evidence varies considerably between different psychological interventions for PTSD, with most robust evidence for cognitive behavioral and exposure therapies.

ANALYTICAL MODELS OF EXOPLANETARY ATMOSPHERES. I. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS VIA THE SHALLOW WATER SYSTEM

Within the context of exoplanetary atmospheres, we present a comprehensive linear analysis of forced, damped, magnetized shallow water systems, exploring the effects of dimensionality, geometry (Cartesian, pseudo-spherical, and spherical), rotation, magnetic tension, and hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction. Across a broad range of conditions, we find that the key governing equation for atmospheres and quantum harmonic oscillators are identical, even when forcing (stellar irradiation), sources of friction (molecular viscosity, Rayleigh drag, and magnetic drag), and magnetic tension are included. The global atmospheric structure is largely controlled by a single key parameter that involves the Rossby and Prandtl numbers. This near-universality breaks down when either molecular viscosity or magnetic drag acts non-uniformly across latitude or a poloidal magnetic field is present, suggesting that these effects will introduce qualitative changes to the familiar chevron-shaped feature witnessed in simulations of atmospheric circulation. We also find that hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction have dissimilar phase signatures and affect the flow in fundamentally different ways, implying that using Rayleigh drag to mimic magnetic drag is inaccurate. We exhaustively lay down the theoretical formalism (dispersion relations, governing equations, and time-dependent wave solutions) for a broad suite of models. In all situations, we derive the steady state of an atmosphere, which is relevant to interpreting infrared phase and eclipse maps of exoplanetary atmospheres. We elucidate a pinching effect that confines the atmospheric structure to be near the equator. Our suite of analytical models may be used to develop decisively physical intuition and as a reference point for three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of atmospheric circulation.

Analytical Models of Exoplanetary Atmospheres. II. Radiative Transfer via the Two-Stream Approximation

We present a comprehensive analytical study of radiative transfer using the method of moments and include the effects of non-isotropic scattering in the coherent limit. Within this unified formalism, we derive the governing equations and solutions describing two-stream radiative transfer (which approximates the passage of radiation as a pair of outgoing and incoming fluxes), flux-limited diffusion (which describes radiative transfer in the deep interior) and solutions for the temperature-pressure profiles. Generally, the problem is mathematically under-determined unless a set of closures (Eddington coefficients) is specified. We demonstrate that the hemispheric (or hemi-isotropic) closure naturally derives from the radiative transfer equation if energy conservation is obeyed, while the Eddington closure produces spurious enhancements of both reflected light and thermal emission. We concoct recipes for implementing two-stream radiative transfer in stand-alone numerical calculations and general circulation models. We use our two-stream solutions to construct toy models of the runaway greenhouse effect. We present a new solution for temperature-pressure profiles with a non-constant optical opacity and elucidate the effects of non-isotropic scattering in the optical and infrared. We derive generalized expressions for the spherical and Bond albedos and the photon deposition depth. We demonstrate that the value of the optical depth corresponding to the photosphere is not always 2/3 (Milne's solution) and depends on a combination of stellar irradiation, internal heat and the properties of scattering both in optical and infrared. Finally, we derive generalized expressions for the total, net, outgoing and incoming fluxes in the convective regime.

Image-based vs. mesh-based statistical appearance models of the human femur: Implications for finite element simulations.

Statistical appearance models have recently been introduced in bone mechanics to investigate bone geometry and mechanical properties in population studies. The establishment of accurate anatomical correspondences is a critical aspect for the construction of reliable models. Depending on the representation of a bone as an image or a mesh, correspondences are detected using image registration or mesh morphing. The objective of this study was to compare image-based and mesh-based statistical appearance models of the femur for finite element (FE) simulations. To this aim, (i) we compared correspondence detection methods on bone surface and in bone volume; (ii) we created an image-based and a mesh-based statistical appearance models from 130 images, which we validated using compactness, representation and generalization, and we analyzed the FE results on 50 recreated bones vs. original bones; (iii) we created 1000 new instances, and we compared the quality of the FE meshes. Results showed that the image-based approach was more accurate in volume correspondence detection and quality of FE meshes, whereas the mesh-based approach was more accurate for surface correspondence detection and model compactness. Based on our results, we recommend the use of image-based statistical appearance models for FE simulations of the femur.

Patterns of Psychological Adaptation to Spousal Bereavement in Old Age

Background: While the negative effects of spousal bereavement on well-being are well documented in empirical research, the large individual differences in psychological adaptation are still not well understood. Objective: This contribution aims to identify patterns of psychological adaptation to spousal loss in old age and to shed light on the role of intra- and interpersonal resources and contextual factors as discriminant variables among these patterns. Methods: The data stem from a cross-sectional questionnaire study of 402 widowed individuals (228 women, 174 men) aged between 60 and 89 years (mean age 74.41 years), who lost their partner within the last 5 years, and 618 married individuals, who served as controls (312 women, 306 men; mean age 73.82 years). Results: The exploratory latent profile analysis of the well-being outcomes of depressive symptoms, hopelessness, loneliness, life satisfaction and subjective health revealed three different groups in the widowed sample: ‘resilients' (54% of the sample), ‘copers' (39%) and ‘vulnerables' (7%). The most important variables for group allocation were intrapersonal resources - psychological resilience and the Big Five personality traits - but also the quality of the former relationship and how the loss was experienced. Conclusion: Successful adaptation to spousal loss is primarily associated with high scores in psychological resilience and extraversion and low scores in neuroticism. Our results shed light on the variability in psychological adaptation and underline the important role of intrapersonal resources in facing spousal loss in old age.

The developmental and evolutionary origins of psychological essentialism lie in sortal object individuation

Cimpian & Salomon (C&S) present promising steps towards understanding the cognitive underpinnings of adult essentialism. However, their approach is less convincing regarding ontogenetic and evolutionary aspects. In contrast to C&S's claim, the so-called inherence heuristic, though perhaps vital in adult reasoning, seems an implausible candidate for the developmental and evolutionary foundations of psychological essentialism. A more plausible candidate is kind-based object individuation that already embodies essentialist modes of thinking and that is present in infants and nonhuman primates.