Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

Assessment of the wind-up phenomenon in the equine nociceptive trigeminal system.

Repeated sub-threshold nociceptive electrical stimulation resulting in temporal summation of the limb nociceptive withdrawal reflex is a well-established non-invasive model to investigate the wind-up phenomenon in horses. Due to structural similarities of the trigeminal sensory nucleus to the dorsal horn of the spinal cord, temporal summation should be evoked by repeated transcutaneous electrical stimulation of trigeminal afferents. To evaluate this hypothesis repeated transcutaneous electrical stimulation was applied to the supraorbital and infraorbital nerves of 10 horses. Stimulation intensities varied between 0.5 and 1.3 times the trigemino-cervical reflex threshold defined for single stimulation. Evoked electromyographic activity of the orbicularis oculi, splenius and cleidomastoideus muscles was recorded and the signals analysed in the previously established epochs typical to the early and late component of the blink reflex and to the trigemino-cervical reflex. Behavioural reactions were evaluated with the aid of numerical rating scale. The nociceptive late component and the trigemino-cervical reflex were not elicited by sub-threshold intensity repeated transcutaneous electrical stimulation. Furthermore, the median reflex amplitude for the 10 horses showed a tendency to decline over the stimulation train so temporal summation of afferent trigeminal inputs could not be observed. Therefore, the modulation of trigeminal nociceptive processing attributable to repeated Aδ fibre stimulations seems to differ from spinal processing of similar inputs as it seems to have an inhibitory rather than facilitatory effect. Further evaluation is necessary to highlight the underlying mechanism.

Exemestane Versus Anastrozole in Postmenopausal Women With Early Breast Cancer: NCIC CTG MA.27—A Randomized Controlled Phase III Trial

PURPOSE In patients with hormone-dependent postmenopausal breast cancer, standard adjuvant therapy involves 5 years of the nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitors anastrozole and letrozole. The steroidal inhibitor exemestane is partially non-cross-resistant with nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitors and is a mild androgen and could prove superior to anastrozole regarding efficacy and toxicity, specifically with less bone loss. PATIENTS AND METHODS We designed an open-label, randomized, phase III trial of 5 years of exemestane versus anastrozole with a two-sided test of superiority to detect a 2.4% improvement with exemestane in 5-year event-free survival (EFS). Secondary objectives included assessment of overall survival, distant disease-free survival, incidence of contralateral new primary breast cancer, and safety. RESULTS In the study, 7,576 women (median age, 64.1 years) were enrolled. At median follow-up of 4.1 years, 4-year EFS was 91% for exemestane and 91.2% for anastrozole (stratified hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.18; P = .85). Overall, distant disease-free survival and disease-specific survival were also similar. In all, 31.6% of patients discontinued treatment as a result of adverse effects, concomitant disease, or study refusal. Osteoporosis/osteopenia, hypertriglyceridemia, vaginal bleeding, and hypercholesterolemia were less frequent on exemestane, whereas mild liver function abnormalities and rare episodes of atrial fibrillation were less frequent on anastrozole. Vasomotor and musculoskeletal symptoms were similar between arms. CONCLUSION This first comparison of steroidal and nonsteroidal classes of aromatase inhibitors showed neither to be superior in terms of breast cancer outcomes as 5-year initial adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal breast cancer by two-way test. Less toxicity on bone is compatible with one hypothesis behind MA.27 but requires confirmation. Exemestane should be considered another option as up-front adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal hormone receptor-positive breast cancer.

Endoscopically assisted decompression of the median nerve in the pronator and Kiloh-Nevin syndrome: Surgical technique

STATE OF THE ART The proximal median nerve compression syndrome includes the pronator teres and the Kiloh-Nevin syndrome. This article presents a new surgical technique of endoscopic assisted median nerve decompression. MATERIAL AND SURGICAL TECHNIQUE Endoscopic scissor decompression of the median nerve is always performed under plexus anaesthesia. It includes 6 key steps documented in this article. We review the indications and limitations of the surgical technique. RESULTS Since 2011, three clinical series have highlighted the advantages of this technique. Functional and subjective results are discussed. We also review the limitations of the technique and its potential for future development. CONCLUSION Although clinical results after endoscopic assisted decompression of the median nerve appear excellent they still need to be compared with conventional techniques. Clinical studies are likely to develop primarily due to the mini-invasive nature of this new surgical technique.

A test of the Bolton-Scheinkman-Xiong hypothesis of how speculation affects the vesting time of options granted to directors

This paper investigates empirically the Bolton, Scheinkman, and Xiong (2006) hypothesis, according to which initial shareholders may provide incentives to managers to take actions that stimulate speculative bubbles. We test this hypothesis with data on up to 8,544 directors and up to 1,677 companies between 2004-2008. Using vesting time as a measure of the short-term performance weighting in CEO compensation and various alternative measures of the extent of speculation, the findings support the hypothesis: vesting time decreases with more intensive speculation. The results prove robust in various empirical model specifications.

Plasma and urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) in dogs with acute kidney injury or chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a protein that is used in human medicine as a real-time indicator of acute kidney injury (AKI). HYPOTHESIS Dogs with AKI have significantly higher plasma NGAL concentration and urine NGAL-to-creatinine ratio (UNCR) compared with healthy dogs and dogs with chronic kidney disease (CKD). ANIMALS 18 healthy control dogs, 17 dogs with CKD, and 48 dogs with AKI. METHODS Over a period of 1 year, all dogs with renal azotemia were prospectively included. Urine and plasma samples were collected during the first 24 hours after presentation or after development of renal azotemia. Plasma and urine NGAL concentrations were measured with a commercially available canine NGAL Elisa Kit (Bioporto® Diagnostic) and UNCR was calculated. A single-injection plasma inulin clearance was performed in the healthy dogs. RESULTS Median (range) NGAL plasma concentration in healthy dogs, dogs with CKD, and AKI were 10.7 ng/mL (2.5-21.2), 22.0 ng/mL (7.7-62.3), and 48.3 ng/mL (5.7-469.0), respectively. UNCR was 2 × 10(-8) (0-46), 1,424 × 10(-8) (385-18,347), and 2,366 × 10(-8) (36-994,669), respectively. Dogs with renal azotemia had significantly higher NGAL concentrations and UNCR than did healthy dogs (P < .0001 for both). Plasma NGAL concentration was significantly higher in dogs with AKI compared with dogs with CKD (P = .027). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE Plasma NGAL could be helpful to differentiate AKI from CKD in dogs with renal azotemia.

Relationship between survival and increased radiation dose to subventricular zone in glioblastoma is controversial.

To test the hypothesis on prolonged survival in glioblastoma cases with increased subventricular zone (SVZ) radiation dose. Sixty glioblastoma cases were previously treated with adjuvant radiotherapy and Temozolamide. Ipsilateral, contralateral and bilateral SVZs were contoured and their doses were retrospectively evaluated. Median follow-up, progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 24.5, 8.5 and 19.3 months respectively. Log-rank tests showed a statistically significant correlation between contralateral SVZ (cSVZ) dose > 59.2 Gy (75th percentile) and poor median PFS (10.37 [95% CI 8.37-13.53] vs 7.1 [95% CI 3.5-8.97] months, p = 0.009). cSVZ dose > 59.2 Gy was associated with poor OS in the subgroup with subtotal resection/biopsy (HR: 4.83 [95% CI 1.71-13.97], p = 0.004). High ipsilateral SVZ dose of > 62.25 Gy (75th percentile) was associated with poor PFS in both subgroups of high performance status (HR: 2.58 [95% CI 1.03-6.05], p = 0.044) and SVZ without tumoral contact (HR: 10.57 [95% CI 2.04-49], p = 0.008). The effect of high cSVZ dose on PFS lost its statistical significance in multivariate Cox regression analysis. We report contradictory results compared to previous publications. Changing the clinical practice based on retrospective studies which even do not indicate consistent results among each other will be dangerous. We need carefully designed prospective randomized studies to evaluate any impact of radiation to SVZ in glioblastoma.

The median forehead flap reviewed: a histologic study on vascular anatomy

Local skin flaps can be divided into two types: random flaps and axial flaps. An axial flap is defined as a flap containing a named artery in its pedicle. For the paramedian forehead flap (PMFF) a lot of surgeons insist on the point that the pedicle must contain the supratrochlear artery. To demonstrate that median forehead flaps (MFF) need not contain a named artery, we selected first 8 patients with a PMFF and further 12 patients who had undergone reconstructive surgery using a MFF. After division, we analysed the pedicle of the flap histologically and measured the diameter of the arteries or arterioles and compared them to anatomical descriptions of the frontal arteries. In none of the 12 cases could we find a functional artery of approximately 1 mm in diameter that could correspond to the supratrochlear artery. The MFF is an axial flap but not in accordance with the current definition of this term. In contrast to published literature, we show that only in a part of cases a named artery was present in the pedicle. Despite this fact, the MFF is a secure flap for full thickness defect repair on the nose.

High-school students' need for cognition, self-control capacity, and school achievement: testing a mediation hypothesis

In the present article, we examine the hypothesis that high-school students' motivation to engage in cognitive endeavors (i.e., their need for cognition; NFC) is positively related to their dispositional self-control capacity. Furthermore, we test the prediction that the relation between NFC and school achievement is mediated by self-control capacity. A questionnaire study with grade ten high-school students (N = 604) revealed the expected relations between NFC, self-control capacity, and school achievement. Sobel tests showed that self-control capacity mediated the relation between NFC and school grades as well as grade retention.

Adjuvant ovarian suppression in premenopausal breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Suppression of ovarian estrogen production reduces the recurrence of hormone-receptor-positive early breast cancer in premenopausal women, but its value when added to tamoxifen is uncertain. METHODS We randomly assigned 3066 premenopausal women, stratified according to prior receipt or nonreceipt of chemotherapy, to receive 5 years of tamoxifen, tamoxifen plus ovarian suppression, or exemestane plus ovarian suppression. The primary analysis tested the hypothesis that tamoxifen plus ovarian suppression would improve disease-free survival, as compared with tamoxifen alone. In the primary analysis, 46.7% of the patients had not received chemotherapy previously, and 53.3% had received chemotherapy and remained premenopausal. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 67 months, the estimated disease-free survival rate at 5 years was 86.6% in the tamoxifen-ovarian suppression group and 84.7% in the tamoxifen group (hazard ratio for disease recurrence, second invasive cancer, or death, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 1.04; P=0.10). Multivariable allowance for prognostic factors suggested a greater treatment effect with tamoxifen plus ovarian suppression than with tamoxifen alone (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.98). Most recurrences occurred in patients who had received prior chemotherapy, among whom the rate of freedom from breast cancer at 5 years was 82.5% in the tamoxifen-ovarian suppression group and 78.0% in the tamoxifen group (hazard ratio for recurrence, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.02). At 5 years, the rate of freedom from breast cancer was 85.7% in the exemestane-ovarian suppression group (hazard ratio for recurrence vs. tamoxifen, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS Adding ovarian suppression to tamoxifen did not provide a significant benefit in the overall study population. However, for women who were at sufficient risk for recurrence to warrant adjuvant chemotherapy and who remained premenopausal, the addition of ovarian suppression improved disease outcomes. Further improvement was seen with the use of exemestane plus ovarian suppression. (Funded by Pfizer and others; SOFT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00066690.).

Increased ambulatory arterial stiffness index in obese children.

OBJECTIVE Altered arterial stiffness is a recognized risk factor of poor cardiovascular health. Ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI, defined as one minus the regression slope of diastolic on systolic blood pressure values derived from a 24 h arterial blood pressure monitoring, ABPM) is an upcoming and readily available marker of arterial stiffness. Our hypothesis was that AASI is increased in obese children compared to age- and gender matched healthy subjects. METHODS AASI was calculated from ABPM in 101 obese children (BMI ≥ 1.88 SDS according to age- and sex-specific BMI charts), 45% girls, median BMI SDS 2.8 (interquartile range (IQR) 2.5-3.4), median age 11.5 years (9.1-13.4) and compared with an age and gender matched healthy control group of 71 subjects with median BMI SDS 0.0 (-0.8-0.5). Multivariate regression analysis was applied to identify significant independent factors explaining AASI variability in this population. RESULTS AASI was significantly higher in obese children compared to controls (0.388 (0.254-0.499) versus 0.190 (0.070-0.320), p < 0.0001), but blood pressure values were similar. In a multivariate analysis including obese children only, AASI was independently predicted by 24-h systolic blood pressure SDS (p = 0.012); in a multivariate analysis including obese children and controls BMI SDS and pulse pressure independently influenced AASI (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS This study shows that AASI, a surrogate marker of arterial stiffness, is increased in obese children. AASI seems to be influenced by BMI and pulse pressure independently of systolic and diastolic blood pressure values, suggesting that other factors are involved in increased arterial stiffness in obese children.