Prognosis of patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a collaborative analysis of scale-up programmes

Background Prognostic models have been developed for patients infected with HIV-1 who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We analysed data for adult patients who started ART in four scale-up programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. Patients lost to follow-up in the first year were excluded. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age, and sex (CD4 count model); and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anaemia (total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model), because CD4 cell count is not routinely measured in many African ART programmes. Death from all causes in the first year of ART was the primary outcome. Findings 912 (8·2%) of 11 153 patients died in the first year of ART. 822 patients were lost to follow-up and not included in the main analysis; 10 331 patients were analysed. Mortality was strongly associated with high baseline CD4 cell count (≥200 cells per μL vs <25; adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17–0·27), WHO clinical stage (stages III–IV vs I–II; 3·45, 2·43–4·90), bodyweight (≥60 kg vs <45 kg; 0·23, 0·18–0·30), and anaemia status (none vs severe: 0·27, 0·20–0·36). Other independent risk factors for mortality were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age, and male sex. Probability of death at 1 year ranged from 0·9% (95% CI 0·6–1·4) to 52·5% (43·8–61·7) with the CD4 model, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·4) to 59·6% (48·2–71·4) with the total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model. Both models accurately predict early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa compared with observed data. Interpretation Prognostic models should be used to counsel patients, plan health services, and predict outcomes for patients with HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Population based screening - the difficulty of how to do more good than harm and how to achieve it

Screening people without symptoms of disease is an attractive idea. Screening allows early detection of disease or elevated risk of disease, and has the potential for improved treatment and reduction of mortality. The list of future screening opportunities is set to grow because of the refinement of screening techniques, the increasing frequency of degenerative and chronic diseases, and the steadily growing body of evidence on genetic predispositions for various diseases. But how should we decide on the diseases for which screening should be done and on recommendations for how it should be implemented? We use the examples of prostate cancer and genetic screening to show the importance of considering screening as an ongoing population-based intervention with beneficial and harmful effects, and not simply the use of a test. Assessing whether screening should be recommended and implemented for any named disease is therefore a multi-dimensional task in health technology assessment. There are several countries that already use established processes and criteria to assess the appropriateness of screening. We argue that the Swiss healthcare system needs a nationwide screening commission mandated to conduct appropriate evidence-based evaluation of the impact of proposed screening interventions, to issue evidence-based recommendations, and to monitor the performance of screening programmes introduced. Without explicit processes there is a danger that beneficial screening programmes could be neglected and that ineffective, and potentially harmful, screening procedures could be introduced.

CONSORT 2010 Explanation and Elaboration: Updated guidelines for reporting parallel group randomised trials

Overwhelming evidence shows the quality of reporting of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is not optimal. Without transparent reporting, readers cannot judge the reliability and validity of trial findings nor extract information for systematic reviews. Recent methodological analyses indicate that inadequate reporting and design are associated with biased estimates of treatment effects. Such systematic error is seriously damaging to RCTs, which are considered the gold standard for evaluating interventions because of their ability to minimise or avoid bias. A group of scientists and editors developed the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement to improve the quality of reporting of RCTs. It was first published in 1996 and updated in 2001. The statement consists of a checklist and flow diagram that authors can use for reporting an RCT. Many leading medical journals and major international editorial groups have endorsed the CONSORT statement. The statement facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of RCTs. During the 2001 CONSORT revision, it became clear that explanation and elaboration of the principles underlying the CONSORT statement would help investigators and others to write or appraise trial reports. A CONSORT explanation and elaboration article was published in 2001 alongside the 2001 version of the CONSORT statement. After an expert meeting in January 2007, the CONSORT statement has been further revised and is published as the CONSORT 2010 Statement. This update improves the wording and clarity of the previous checklist and incorporates recommendations related to topics that have only recently received recognition, such as selective outcome reporting bias. This explanatory and elaboration document-intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the CONSORT statement-has also been extensively revised. It presents the meaning and rationale for each new and updated checklist item providing examples of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies. Several examples of flow diagrams are included. The CONSORT 2010 Statement, this revised explanatory and elaboration document, and the associated website (www.consort-statement.org) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of randomised trials.

Long-term antibiotic treatment for Crohn's disease: systematic review and meta-analysis of placebo-controlled trials

We investigated the effectiveness of long-term antibiotic treatment in patients with Crohn's disease.

Incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index in 30 European countries

Excess adiposity is associated with increased risks of developing adult malignancies. To inform public health policy and guide further research, the incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index (BMI >or= 25 kg/m(2)) across 30 European countries were estimated. Population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated using European- and gender-specific risk estimates from a published meta-analysis and gender-specific mean BMI estimates from a World Health Organization Global Infobase. Country-specific numbers of new cancers were derived from Globocan2002. A ten-year lag-period between risk exposure and cancer incidence was assumed and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated in Monte Carlo simulations. In 2002, there were 2,171,351 new all cancer diagnoses in the 30 countries of Europe. Estimated PARs were 2.5% (95% CI 1.5-3.6%) in men and 4.1% (2.3-5.9%) in women. These collectively corresponded to 70,288 (95% CI 40,069-100,668) new cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed estimates were most influenced by the assumed shape of the BMI distribution in the population and cancer-specific risk estimates. In a scenario analysis of a plausible contemporary (2008) population, the estimated PARs increased to 3.2% (2.1-4.3%) and 8.6% (5.6-11.5%), respectively, in men and women. Endometrial, post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancers accounted for 65% of these cancers. This analysis quantifies the burden of incident cancers attributable to excess BMI in Europe. The estimates reported here provide a baseline for future modelling, and underline the need for research into interventions to control weight in the context of endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer.

Body Mass Index and Cancer Risk: The Evidence for Causal Association

Increased body mass index (BMI), as an approximation of body adiposity, is a risk factor for developing several adult malignancies. To quantify these risks, we reported a comprehensive systematic review (Lancet 2008; 371: 569-78) of prospective observational studies determining associations between BMI and risk of incident cancer for 20 cancer types. We demonstrated that associations are: (i) sex-specific; (ii) exist for a wider range of malignancies than previously thought; and (iii) are broadly consistent across geographic populations. In the present paper, we tested these data against the Bradford-Hill criteria of causal association, and argue that the available data support strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence and probably analogy. However, the experimental evidence supporting reversibility is currently lacking, though indirect evidence from longitudinal data in cohort studies and long-term follow-up post-bariatric surgery is emerging. We additionally assessed these data against appropriate adjustment for available confounding factors; measurement error and study design; and residual confounding; and found lack of alternative explanations. We conclude that there is considerable evidence to support a causal association between BMI and risk for many cancer types, but in order to establish the role of weight control in cancer prevention, there is a need to develop trial frameworks in which to better test reversibility.

Source of funding in experimental studies of mobile phone use on health: Update of systematic review

A previous review showed that among 59 studies published in 1995–2005, industry-funded studies were least likely to report effects of controlled exposure to mobile phone radiation on health-related outcomes. We updated literature searches in 2005–2009 and extracted data on funding, conflicts of interest and results. Of 75 additional studies 12% were industry-funded, 44% had public and 19% mixed funding; funding was unclear in 25%. Previous findings were confirmed: industry-sponsored studies were least likely to report results suggesting effects. Interestingly, the proportion of studies indicating effects declined in 1995–2009, regardless of funding source. Source of funding and conflicts of interest are important in this field of research.

Cellular immune responses to HCV core increase and HCV RNA levels decrease during successful antiretroviral therapy

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of morbidity in HIV infected individuals. Coinfection with HIV is associated with diminished HCV-specific immune responses and higher HCV RNA levels. Aims To investigate whether long-term combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) restores HCV-specific T cell responses and improves the control of HCV replication. Methods T cell responses were evaluated longitudinally in 80 HIV/HCV coinfected individuals by ex vivo interferon-γ-ELISpot responses to HCV core peptides, that predominantly stimulate CD4+ T cells. HCV RNA levels were assessed by real-time PCR in 114 individuals. Results The proportion of individuals with detectable T cell responses to HCV core peptides was 19% before starting cART, 24% in the first year on cART and increased significantly to 45% and 49% after 33 and 70 months on cART (p=0.001). HCV-specific immune responses increased in individuals with chronic (+31%) and spontaneously cleared HCV infection (+30%). Median HCV RNA levels before starting cART were 6.5 log10 IU/ml. During long-term cART, median HCV-RNA levels slightly decreased compared to pre-cART levels (−0.3 log10 IU/ml, p=0.02). Conclusions Successful cART is associated with increasing cellular immune responses to HCV core peptides and with a slight long-term decrease in HCV RNA levels. These findings are in line with the favourable clinical effects of cART on the natural history of hepatitis C and with the current recommendation to start cART earlier in HCV/HIV coinfected individuals.

Role of selective V2-receptor-antagonism in septic shock: a randomized, controlled, experimental study

ABSTRACT : INTRODUCTION : V2-receptor (V2R) stimulation potentially aggravates sepsis-induced vasodilation, fluid accumulation and microvascular thrombosis. Therefore, the present study was performed to determine the effects of a first-line therapy with the selective V2R-antagonist (Propionyl1-D-Tyr(Et)2-Val4-Abu6-Arg8,9)-Vasopressin on cardiopulmonary hemodynamics and organ function vs. the mixed V1aR/V2R-agonist arginine vasopressin (AVP) or placebo in an established ovine model of septic shock. METHODS : After the onset of septic shock, chronically instrumented sheep were randomly assigned to receive first-line treatment with the selective V2R-antagonist (1 g/kg per hour), AVP (0.05 g/kg per hour), or normal saline (placebo, each n = 7). In all groups, open-label norepinephrine was additionally titrated up to 1 g/kg per minute to maintain mean arterial pressure at 70 ± 5 mmHg, if necessary. RESULTS : Compared to AVP- and placebo-treated animals, the selective V2R-antagonist stabilized cardiopulmonary hemodynamics (mean arterial and pulmonary artery pressure, cardiac index) as effectively and increased intravascular volume as suggested by higher cardiac filling pressures. Furthermore, left ventricular stroke work index was higher in the V2R-antagonist group than in the AVP group. Notably, metabolic (pH, base excess, lactate concentrations), liver (transaminases, bilirubin) and renal (creatinine and blood urea nitrogen plasma levels, urinary output, creatinine clearance) dysfunctions were attenuated by the V2R-antagonist when compared with AVP and placebo. The onset of septic shock was associated with an increase in AVP plasma levels as compared to baseline in all groups. Whereas AVP plasma levels remained constant in the placebo group, infusion of AVP increased AVP plasma levels up to 149 ± 21 pg/mL. Notably, treatment with the selective V2R-antagonist led to a significant decrease of AVP plasma levels as compared to shock time (P < 0.001) and to both other groups (P < 0.05 vs. placebo; P < 0.001 vs. AVP). Immunohistochemical analyses of lung tissue revealed higher hemeoxygenase-1 (vs. placebo) and lower 3-nitrotyrosine concentrations (vs. AVP) in the V2R-antagonist group. In addition, the selective V2R-antagonist slightly prolonged survival (14 ± 1 hour) when compared to AVP (11 ± 1 hour, P = 0.007) and placebo (11 ± 1 hour, P = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS : Selective V2R-antagonism may represent an innovative therapeutic approach to attenuate multiple organ dysfunction in early septic shock.

Identification of a fibronectin interaction site in the extracellular matrix protein ameloblastin

Mammalian teeth are composed of hydroxyapatite crystals that are embedded in a rich extracellular matrix. This matrix is produced by only two cell types, the mesenchymal odontoblasts and the ectodermal ameloblasts. Ameloblasts secrete the enamel proteins amelogenin, ameloblastin, enamelin and amelotin. Odontoblasts secrete collagen type I and several calcium-binding phosphoproteins including dentin sialophosphoprotein, dentin matrix protein, bone sialoprotein and osteopontin. The latter four proteins have recently been grouped in the family of the SIBLINGs (small integrin-binding ligand, N-linked glycoproteins) because they display similar gene structures and because they contain an RGD tripeptide sequence that binds to integrin receptors and thus mediates cell adhesion. We have prepared all the other tooth-specific proteins in recombinant form and examined whether they might also promote cell adhesion similar to the SIBLINGs. We found that only ameloblastin consistently mediated adhesion of osteoblastic and fibroblastic cells to plastic or titanium surfaces. The activity was dependent on the intact three-dimensional structure of ameloblastin and required de novo protein synthesis of the adhering cells. By deletion analysis and in vitro mutagenesis, the active site could be narrowed down to a sequence of 13 amino acid residues (VPIMDFADPQFPT) derived from exon 7 of the rat ameloblastin gene or exons 7-9 of the human gene. Kinetic studies and RNA interference experiments further demonstrated that this sequence does not directly bind to a cell surface receptor but that it interacts with cellular fibronectin, which in turn binds to integrin receptors. The identification of a fibronectin-binding domain in ameloblastin might permit interesting applications for dental implantology. Implants could be coated with peptides containing the active sequence, which in turn would recruit fibronectin from the patient's blood. The recruited fibronectin should then promote cell adhesion on the implant surface, thereby accelerating osseointegration of the implant.

Percutaneous collagen induction therapy: an alternative treatment for burn scars

This study aims to evaluate percutaneous collagen induction (PCI) in post-burn scarring.