Late Pleistocene glaciation in the Central Andes: Temperature versus humidity control A case study from the eastern Bolivian Andes (17°S) and regional synthesis

A glacier–climate model was used to calculate climatic conditions in a test site on the east Andean slope around Cochabamba (17°S, Bolivia) for the time of the maximum Late Pleistocene glaciation. Results suggest a massive temperature reduction of about − 6.4 °C (+ 1.4/− 1.3 °C), combined with annual precipitation rates of about 1100 mm (+ 570 mm/− 280 mm). This implies no major change in annual precipitation compared with today. Summer precipitation was the source for the humidity in the past, as is the case today. This climate scenario argues for a maximum advance of the paleo-glaciers in the eastern cordillera during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 20 ka BP), which is confirmed by exposure age dates. In a synthesized view over the central Andes, the results point to an increased summer precipitation-driven Late Glacial (15–10 ka BP) maximum advance in the western part of the Altiplano (18°S–23°S), a temperature-driven maximum advance during full glacial times (LGM) in the eastern cordillera, and a pre- and post-LGM (32 ka BP/14 ka BP) maximum advance around 30°S related to increased precipitation and reduced temperature on the western slope of the Andes. The results indicate the importance of understanding the seasonality and details of the mass balance–climate interaction in order to disentangle drivers for the observed regionally asynchronous past glaciations in the central Andes.

Exposure dating of Late Glacial and pre-LGM moraines in the Cordon de Doña Rosa, Northern/Central Chile (~ 31°S)

Despite the important role of the Central Andes (15–30° S) for climate reconstruction, knowledge about the Quaternary glaciation is very limited due to the scarcity of organic material for radiocarbon dating. We applied 10Be surface exposure dating (SED) on 22 boulders from moraines in the Cordon de Doña Rosa, Northern/Central Chile (~31° S). The results show that several glacial advances in the southern Central Andes occurred during the Late Glacial between ~14.7±1.5 and 11.6±1.2 ka. A much more extensive glaciation is dated to ~32±3 ka, predating the temperature minimum of the global LGM (Last Glacial Maximum: ~20 ka). Reviewing these results in the paleoclimatic context, we conclude that the Late Glacial advances were most likely caused by an intensification of the tropical circulation and a corresponding increase in summer precipitation. High-latitude temperatures minima, e.g. the Younger Dryas (YD) and the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) may have triggered individual advances, but current systematic exposure age uncertainties limit precise correlations. The absence of LGM moraines indicates that moisture advection was too limited to allow significant glacial advances at ~20 ka. The tropical circulation was less intensive despite the maximum in austral summer insolation. Winter precipitation was apparently also insufficient, although pollen and marine studies indicate a northward shift of the westerlies at that time. The dominant pre-LGM glacial advances in Northern/Central Chile at ~32 ka required lower temperatures and increased precipitation than today. We conclude that the westerlies were more intense and/or shifted equatorward, possibly due to increased snow and ice cover at higher southern latitudes coinciding with a minimum of insolation.

Acute and late toxicity in prostate cancer patients treated by dose escalated intensity modulated radiation therapy and organ tracking

BACKGROUND: To report acute and late toxicity in prostate cancer patients treated by dose escalated intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and organ tracking. METHODS: From 06/2004 to 12/2005 39 men were treated by 80 Gy IMRT along with organ tracking. Median age was 69 years, risk of recurrence was low 18%, intermediate 21% and high in 61% patients. Hormone therapy (HT) was received by 74% of patients. Toxicity was scored according to the CTC scale version 3.0. Median follow-up (FU) was 29 months. RESULTS: Acute and maximal late grade 2 gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity was 3% and 8%, late grade 2 GI toxicity dropped to 0% at the end of FU. No acute or late grade 3 GI toxicity was observed. Grade 2 and 3 pre-treatment genitourinary (GU) morbidity (PGUM) was 20% and 5%. Acute and maximal late grade 2 GU toxicity was 56% and 28% and late grade 2 GU toxicity decreased to 15% of patients at the end of FU. Acute and maximal late grade 3 GU toxicity was 8% and 3%, respectively. Decreased late > or = grade 2 GU toxicity free survival was associated with higher age (P = .025), absence of HT (P = .016) and higher PGUM (P < .001). DISCUSSION: GI toxicity rates after IMRT and organ tracking are excellent, GU toxicity rates are strongly related to PGUM.

The potential effect of population development, smoking and antioxidant supplementation on the future epidemiology of age-related macular degeneration in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Due to the predicted age shift of the population an increase in the number of patients with late AMD is expected. At present smoking represents the only modifiable risk factor. Supplementation of antioxidants in patients at risk is the sole effective pharmacological prevention. The aim of this study is to estimate the future epidemiological development of late AMD in Switzerland and to quantify the potential effects of smoking and antioxidants supplementation. METHODS: The modelling of the future development of late AMD cases in Switzerland was based on a meta-analysis of the published data on AMD-prevalence and on published Swiss population development scenarios until 2050. Three different scenarios were compared: low, mean and high. The late AMD cases caused by smoking were calculated using the "population attributable fraction" formula and data on the current smoking habits of the Swiss population. The number of potentially preventable cases was estimated using the data of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). RESULTS: According to the mean population development scenario, late AMD cases in Switzerland will rise from 37 200 cases in 2005 to 52 500 cases in 2020 and to 93 200 cases in 2050. Using the "low" and the "high" scenarios the late AMD cases may range from 49 500 to 56 000 in 2020 and from 73 700 to 118 400 in 2050, respectively. Smoking is responsible for approximately 7 % of all late AMD cases, i. e., 2600 cases in 2005, 3800 cases in 2020, 6600 cases in 2050 ("mean scenario"). With future antioxidant supplementation to all patients at risk another 3100 cases would be preventable until 2020 and possibly 23 500 cases until 2050. CONCLUSION: Due to age shift in the population a 2.5-fold increase in late AMD cases until 2050 is expected, representing a socioeconomic challenge. Cessation of smoking and supplementation of antioxidants to all patients at risk has the potential to reduce this number. Unfortunately, public awareness is low. These data may support health-care providers and public opinion leaders when developing public education and prevention strategies.

Delayed diagnosis of HIV infection and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: To investigate delayed HIV diagnosis and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Two sub-populations were included: 1915 patients with HIV diagnosis from 1998 to 2007 and within 3 months of cohort registration (group A), and 1730 treatment-naïve patients with CD4>or=200 cells/microL before their second cohort visit (group B). In group A, predictors for low initial CD4 cell counts were examined with a median regression. In group B, we studied predictors for CD4<200 cells/microL without ART despite cohort follow-up. RESULTS: Median initial CD4 cell count in group A was 331 cells/microL; 31% and 10% were <200 and <50 cells/microL, respectively. Risk factors for low CD4 count were age and non-White race. Homosexual transmission, intravenous drug use and living alone were protective. In group B, 30% initiated ART with CD4>or=200 cells/microL; 18% and 2% dropped to CD4 <200 and <50 cells/microL without ART, respectively. Sub-Saharan origin was associated with lower probability of CD4 <200 cells/microL without ART during follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 207 and 253 cells/microL in groups A and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CD4<200 cells/microL and, particularly, CD4<50 cells/microL before starting ART are predominantly caused by late presentation. Earlier HIV diagnosis is paramount.

Temporal patterns in lacustrine stable isotopes as evidence for climate change during the late glacial in the Southern European Alps

We investigated oxygen and carbon isotopes of bulk carbonate and of benthic freshwater ostracods (Candona candida) in a sediment core of Lago Piccolo di Avigliana that was previously analyzed for pollen and loss-on-ignition, in order to reconstruct environmental changes during the late glacial and early Holocene. The depth-age relationship of the sediment core was established using 14 AMS C-14 dates and the Laacher See Tephra. While stable isotopes of bulk carbonates may have been affected by detrital input and, therefore, only indirectly reflect climatic changes, isotopes measured on ostracod shells provide unambiguous evidence for major environmental changes. Oxygen isotope ratios of ostracod shells (delta O-18(C)) increased by similar to 6 parts per thousand at the onset of the Bolling (similar to 14,650 cal BP) and were similar to 2 parts per thousand lower during the Younger Dryas (similar to 12,850 to 11,650 cal BP), indicating a temporal pattern of climate changes similar to the North Atlantic region. However, in contrast to records in that region, delta O-18(C) gradually decreased during the early Holocene, suggesting that compared to the Younger Dryas more humid conditions occurred and that the lake received gradually increasing input of O-18-depleted groundwater or river water.

Late Holocene summer temperatures in the central Andes reconstructed from the sediments of high-elevatin Laguna Chepical, Chile (32° S)

High-resolution reconstructions of climate variability that cover the past millennia are necessary to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change across the globe. Although numerous records are available for the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, global assessments are still compromised by the scarcity of data from the Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the tropical and subtropical areas. In addition, high elevation sites in the South American Andes may provide insight into the vertical structure of climate change in the mid-troposphere. This study presents a 3000 yr-long austral summer (November to February) temperature reconstruction derived from the 210Pb- and 14C-dated organic sediments of Laguna Chepical (32°16' S, 70°30' W, 3050 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation glacial lake in the subtropical Andes of central Chile. Scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible light range provided the spectral index R570/R630, which reflects the clay mineral content in lake sediments. For the calibration period (AD 1901–2006), the R570/R630 data were regressed against monthly meteorological reanalysis data, showing that this proxy was strongly and significantly correlated with mean summer (NDJF) temperatures (R3 yr = −0.63, padj = 0.01). This calibration model was used to make a quantitative temperature reconstruction back to 1000 BC. The reconstruction (with a model error RMSEPboot of 0.33 °C) shows that the warmest decades of the past 3000 yr occurred during the calibration period. The 19th century (end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)) was cool. The prominent warmth reconstructed for the 18th century, which was also observed in other records from this area, seems systematic for subtropical and southern South America but remains difficult to explain. Except for this warm period, the LIA was generally characterized by cool summers. Back to AD 1400, the results from this study compare remarkably well to low altitude records from the Chilean Central Valley and southern South America. However, the reconstruction from Laguna Chepical does not show a warm Medieval Climate Anomaly during the 12–13th century, which is consistent with records from tropical South America. The Chepical record also indicates substantial cooling prior to 800 BC. This coincides with well-known regional as well as global glacier advances which have been attributed to a grand solar minimum. This study thus provides insight into the climatic drivers and temperature patterns in a region for which currently very few data are available. It also shows that since ca. AD 1400, long-term temperature patterns were generally similar at low and high altitudes in central Chile.

Male reproductive pattern in a polygynous ungulate with a slow life-history: the role of age, social status and alternative mating tactics

According to life-history theory age-dependent investments into reproduction are thought to co-vary with survival and growth of animals. In polygynous species, in which size is an important determinant of reproductive success, male reproduction via alternative mating tactics at young age are consequently expected to be the less frequent in species with higher survival. We tested this hypothesis in male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a highly sexually dimorphic mountain ungulate whose males have been reported to exhibit extremely high adult survival rates. Using data from two offspring cohorts in a population in the Swiss Alps, the effects of age, dominance and mating tactic on the likelihood of paternity were inferred within a Bayesian framework. In accordance with our hypothesis, reproductive success in male Alpine ibex was heavily biased towards older, dominant males that monopolized access to receptive females by adopting the 'tending' tactic, while success among young, subordinate males via the sneaking tactic 'coursing' was in general low and rare. In addition, we detected a high reproductive skew in male Alpine ibex, suggesting a large opportunity for selection. Compared with other ungulates with higher mortality rates, reproduction among young male Alpine ibex was much lower and more sporadic. Consistent with that, further examinations on the species level indicated that in polygynous ungulates the significance of early reproduction appears to decrease with increasing survival. Overall, this study supports the theory that survival prospects of males modulate the investments into reproduction via alternative mating tactics early in life. In the case of male Alpine ibex, the results indicate that their life-history strategy targets for long life, slow and prolonged growth and late reproduction.

OSL and TL dating of the Middle Stone Age sequence at Diepkloof Rock Shelter (South Africa): a clarification

Diepkloof Rock Shelter offers an exceptional opportunity to study the onset and evolution of both Still Bay (SB) and Howiesons Poort (HP) techno-complexes. However, previous age estimates based on luminescence dating of burnt quartzites (Tribolo et al., 2009) and of sediments (Jacobs et al., 2008) were not in agreement. Here, we present new luminescence ages for 17 rock samples (equivalent dose estimated with a SAR-ITL protocol instead of classical MAAD-TL) as well as for 5 sediment samples (equivalent dose estimated with SAR-single grain OSL protocol) and an update of the 22 previous age estimates for burnt lithics (modified calibration and beta dose estimates). While a good agreement between the rock and sediment ages is obtained, these estimates are still significantly older than those reported by Jacobs et al. (2008). After our own analyses of the sediment from Diepkloof, it is suspected that these authors did not correctly chose the parameters for the equivalent dose determination, leading to an underestimate of the equivalent doses, and thus of the ages. From bottom to top, the mean ages are 100 ± 10 ka for stratigraphic unit (SU) Noël and 107 ± 11 ka for SU Mark (uncharacterized Lower MSA), 100 ± 10 ka for SU Lynn-Leo (Pre-SB type Lynn), 109 ± 10 ka for SUs Kim-Larry (SB), 105 ± 10 ka for SUs Kerry-Kate and 109 ± 10 ka for SU Jess (Early HP), 89 ± 8 ka for SU Jude (MSA type Jack), 77 ± 8 ka for SU John, 85 ± 9 ka for SU Fox, 83 ± 8 ka for SU Fred and 65 ± 8 ka for SU OB5 (Intermediate HP), 52 ± 5 ka for SUs OB2-4 (Late HP). This chronology, together with the technological analyses, greatly modifies the current chrono-cultural model regarding the SB and the HP and has important archaeological implications. Indeed, SB and HP no longer appear as short-lived techno-complexes with synchronous appearances for each and restricted to Oxygen Isotopic Stage (OIS) 4 across South Africa, as suggested by Jacobs et al. (2008, 2012). Rather, the sequence of Diepkloof supports a long chronology model with an early appearance of both SB and HP in the first half of OIS 5 and a long duration of the HP into OIS 3. These new dates imply that different technological traditions coexisted during OIS 5 and 4 in southern Africa and that SB and HP can no longer be considered as horizon markers.

Comparing growth trajectories of risk behaviors from late adolescence through young adulthood: An accelerated design

Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of alcohol use, drinking to the point of drunkenness, smoking, cannabis use, deviance, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior were compared in a Swiss community sample (N = 2,843). Using a longitudinal cohort-sequential approach to link multiple assessments with 3 waves of data for each individual, the studied period spanned the ages of 16 to 29 years. Although smoking had a higher prevalence, both smoking and drinking up to the point of drunkenness followed an inverted U-shaped curve. Alcohol consumption was also best described by a quadratic model, though largely stable at a high level through the late 20s. Sexual risk behavior increased slowly from age 16 to age 22 and then remained largely stable. In contrast, cannabis use and deviance linearly declined from age 16 to age 29. Young men were at higher risk for all behaviors than were young women, but apart from deviance, patterning over time was similar for both sexes. Results about the timing of increase and decline as well as differences between risk behaviors may inform tailored prevention programs during the transition from late adolescence to adulthood.

Prevalence and risk factors of late presentation for HIV diagnosis and care in a tertiary referral centre in Switzerland.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY We sought to identify reasons for late human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing or late presentation for care. METHODS A structured chart review was performed to obtain data on test- and health-seeking behaviour of patients presenting late with CD4 cell counts below 350 cells/µl or with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), at the Zurich centre of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between January 2009 and December 2011. Logistic regression analyses were used to compare demographic characteristics of persons presenting late with not late presenters. RESULTS Of 281 patients, 45% presented late, 48% were chronically HIV-infected non-late presenters, and an additional 7% fulfilled the <350 CD4 cells/µl criterion for late presentation but a chart review revealed that lymphopenia was caused by acute HIV infection. Among the late presenters, 60% were first tested HIV positive in a private practice. More than half of the tests (60%) were suggested by a physician, only 7% following a specific risk situation. The majority (88%) of patients entered medical care within 1 month of testing HIV positive. Risk factors for late presentation were older age (odds ratio [OR] for ≥50 vs <30 years: 3.16, p = 0.017), Asian versus Caucasian ethnicity (OR 3.5, p = 0.021). Compared with men who have sex with men (MSM) without stable partnership, MSM in a stable partnership appeared less likely to present late (OR 0.50, p = 0.034), whereas heterosexual men in a stable partnership had a 2.72-fold increased odds to present late (p = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS The frequency of late testing could be reduced by promoting awareness, particularly among older individuals and heterosexual men in stable partnerships.

Risk of late effects of treatment in children newly diagnosed with standard-risk acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort

BACKGROUND Treatment of patients with paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia has evolved such that the risk of late effects in survivors treated in accordance with contemporary protocols could be different from that noted in those treated decades ago. We aimed to estimate the risk of late effects in children with standard-risk acute lymphoblastic leukaemia treated with contemporary protocols. METHODS We used data from similarly treated members of the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort. The Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a multicentre, North American study of 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed between 1970 and 1986. We included cohort members if they were aged 1·0-9·9 years at the time of diagnosis of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and had received treatment consistent with contemporary standard-risk protocols for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. We calculated mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios, stratified by sex and survival time, after diagnosis of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. We calculated standardised incidence ratios and absolute excess risk for subsequent neoplasms with age-specific, sex-specific, and calendar-year-specific rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program. Outcomes were compared with a sibling cohort and the general US population. FINDINGS We included 556 (13%) of 4329 cohort members treated for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Median follow-up of the survivors from 5 years after diagnosis was 18·4 years (range 0·0-33·0). 28 (5%) of 556 participants had died (standardised mortality ratio 3·5, 95% CI 2·3-5·0). 16 (57%) deaths were due to causes other than recurrence of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Six (1%) survivors developed a subsequent malignant neoplasm (standardised incidence ratio 2·6, 95% CI 1·0-5·7). 107 participants (95% CI 81-193) in each group would need to be followed-up for 1 year to observe one extra chronic health disorder in the survivor group compared with the sibling group. 415 participants (376-939) in each group would need to be followed-up for 1 year to observe one extra severe, life-threatening, or fatal disorder in the group of survivors. Survivors did not differ from siblings in their educational attainment, rate of marriage, or independent living. INTERPRETATION The prevalence of adverse long-term outcomes in children treated for standard risk acute lymphoblastic leukaemia according to contemporary protocols is low, but regular care from a knowledgeable primary-care practitioner is warranted. FUNDING National Cancer Institute, American Lebanese-Syrian Associated Charities, Swiss Cancer Research.

Childhood Trauma and PTSD symptoms increase the risk of cognitive impairment in a sample of former indetured child laborers in old Age.

A growing body of evidence suggests a link between early childhood trauma, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and higher risk for dementia in old age. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between childhood trauma exposure, PTSD and neurocognitive function in a unique cohort of former indentured Swiss child laborers in their late adulthood. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study ever conducted on former indentured child laborers and the first to investigate the relationship between childhood versus adulthood trauma and cognitive function. According to PTSD symptoms and whether they experienced childhood trauma (CT) or adulthood trauma (AT), participants (n = 96) were categorized as belonging to one of four groups: CT/PTSD+, CT/PTSD-, AT/PTSD+, AT/PTSD-. Information on cognitive function was assessed using the Structured Interview for Diagnosis of Dementia of Alzheimer Type, Multi-infarct Dementia and Dementia of other Etiology according to ICD-10 and DSM-III-R, the Mini-Mental State Examination, and a vocabulary test. Depressive symptoms were investigated as a potential mediator for neurocognitive functioning. Individuals screening positively for PTSD symptoms performed worse on all cognitive tasks compared to healthy individuals, independent of whether they reported childhood or adulthood adversity. When controlling for depressive symptoms, the relationship between PTSD symptoms and poor cognitive function became stronger. Overall, results tentatively indicate that PTSD is accompanied by cognitive deficits which appear to be independent of earlier childhood adversity. Our findings suggest that cognitive deficits in old age may be partly a consequence of PTSD or at least be aggravated by it. However, several study limitations need to considered. Consideration of cognitive deficits when treating PTSD patients and victims of lifespan trauma (even without a diagnosis of a psychiatric condition) is crucial. Furthermore, early intervention may prevent long-term deficits in memory function and development of dementia in adulthood.

Neighbourhood socio-economic position, late presentation and outcomes in people living with HIV in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Inequalities and inequities in health are an important public health concern. In Switzerland, mortality in the general population varies according to the socio-economic position (SEP) of neighbourhoods. We examined the influence of neighbourhood SEP on presentation and outcomes in HIV-positive individuals in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: The neighbourhood SEP of patients followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) 2000-2013 was obtained on the basis of 2000 census data on the 50 nearest households (education and occupation of household head, rent, mean number of persons per room). We used Cox and logistic regression models to examine the probability of late presentation, virologic response to cART, loss to follow-up and death across quintiles of neighbourhood SEP. RESULTS: A total of 4489 SHCS participants were included. Presentation with advanced disease [CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl or AIDS] and with AIDS was less common in neighbourhoods of higher SEP: the age and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of SEP was 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.58-0.87] and 0.59 (95% CI 0.45-0.77), respectively. An undetectable viral load at 6 months of cART was more common in the highest than in the lowest quintile (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.04). Loss to follow-up, mortality and causes of death were not associated with neighbourhood SEP. CONCLUSION: Late presentation was more common and virologic response to cART less common in HIV-positive individuals living in neighbourhoods of lower SEP, but in contrast to the general population, there was no clear trend for mortality.

Relations among fluid intelligence, sensory discrimination and working memory in middle to late childhood – A latent variable approach

Two factors that have been suggested as key in explaining individual differences in fluid intelligence are working memory and sensory discrimination ability. A latent variable approach was used to explore the relative contributions of these two variables to individual differences in fluid intelligence in middle to late childhood. A sample of 263 children aged 7–12 years was examined. Correlational analyses showed that general discrimination ability (GDA)and working memory (WM) were related to each other and to fluid intelligence. Structural equation modeling showed that within both younger and older age groups and the sample as a whole, the relation between GDA and fluid intelligence could be accounted for by WM. While WM was able to predict variance in fluid intelligence above and beyond GDA, GDA was not able to explain significant amounts of variance in fluid intelligence, either in the whole sample or within the younger or older age group. We concluded that compared to GDA, WM should be considered the better predictor of individual differences in fluid intelligence in childhood. WM and fluid intelligence, while not being separable in middle childhood, develop at different rates, becoming more separable with age.