Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and immunoglobulins in an older Swiss cohort: results of the Senior Labor Study.

BACKGROUND Vitamin D and the components of humoral immunity play important roles in human health. Older people have lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) serum levels than younger adults. We aimed to determine the levels of 25(OH)D serum concentrations in healthy senior citizens and to study their relationship to the levels of components of humoral immunity. METHODS A total of 1,470 healthy Swiss men and women, 60 years or older, were recruited for this study. A total of 179 subjects dropped out of the study because of elevated serum concentrations of C-reactive protein. Fasting blood sera were analyzed for 25(OH)D with the high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and for parathyroid hormone (PTH), immunoglobulins and complement C4 and C3 concentrations with immunoassays. The percentage of participants in each of the four 25(OH)D deficiency groups--severely deficient (<10 ng/ml), deficient (10 to 20), insufficient (21 to 29 ng/ml) and normal (>=30 ng/ml)--were statistically compared. The relationship of the major components of the humoral system and age with 25(OH)D levels was also assessed. RESULTS About 66% of the subjects had insufficient levels of 25(OH)D. Normal levels of 25(OH)D were found in 26.1% of the subjects of which 21% were males and 30.5% were females (total study population). Severely deficient levels of 25(OH)D were found in 7.98% of the total study population. Low levels of 25(OH)D were positively associated with IgG2 (P = 0.01) and with C4 (P = 0.02), yet were inversely related to levels of IgG1 and IgA (P < 0.05) and C3 (P = 0.01). Serum levels of total IgA, IgG, IgG2 and IgG4 peaked together with 25(OH)D during late summer. CONCLUSIONS Approximately two-thirds of the healthy, older Swiss population presented with Vitamin D insufficiency. The incremental shift in IgA and C3 levels might not necessarily reflect a deranged humoral immune defense; however, given the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency, the importance of this condition in humoral immunity will be worth looking at more closely. This study supports the role of vitamin D in the competent immune system.

Tocolysis for preterm labor: expert opinion

Tocolysis is an important treatment in the improvement of outcome in preterm labor and preterm birth, provided that its use follows clear evidence-based recommendations. In this expert opinion, the most recent evidence about efficacy and side effects of different tocolytics is being reviewed and evidence-based recommendation about diagnosis and treatment of preterm labor is given. Further aspects such as progesterone administration or antibiotic treatment for the prevention of preterm birth are included. Our review demonstrates that an individualized choice of different tocolytics and additional treatments is necessary to improve short- and long-term neonatal outcome in preterm labor and preterm birth.

Intrapartum detection of Group B streptococci colonization by rapid PCR-test on labor ward

OBJECTIVE Group B streptococci (GBS) may lead to early onset neonatal sepsis with severe morbidity and mortality of newborns. Intrapartum detection of GBS is needed. The objective was to compare a PCR-based test performed in the laboratory versus labor ward. STUDY DESIGN 300 patients were included prospectively. In phase I, swabs were analyzed by selective culture and rapid PCR in the laboratory. In phase II, swabs were analyzed accordingly, but the PCR test was conducted in labor ward. Test performances were analyzed and compared. RESULTS In phase I the rapid PCR test had a sensitivity of 85.71% and a specificity of 95.9%. The GBS colonization rate was 18.67%. Overall 8.5% of the PCR results were invalid. In phase II the PCR test showed a sensitivity of 85.71% and a specificity of 95.65%. The GBS colonization rate was 23.3%. Overall 23.5% of swabs tested with PCR were invalid. Initiation of specific, short 2-hour training for operating personnel in the labor ward reduced the invalid test rate to 13.4%. CONCLUSION The rapid PCR-based test yields adequate results to identify GBS colonization when performed in labor ward. In order to reduce the number of invalid tests a short training period is needed.

Time for actions in lucid dreams: effects of task modality, length, and complexity

The relationship between time in dreams and real time has intrigued scientists for centuries. The question if actions in dreams take the same time as in wakefulness can be tested by using lucid dreams where the dreamer is able to mark time intervals with prearranged eye movements that can be objectively identified in EOG recordings. Previous research showed an equivalence of time for counting in lucid dreams and in wakefulness (LaBerge, 1985; Erlacher and Schredl, 2004), but Erlacher and Schredl (2004) found that performing squats required about 40% more time in lucid dreams than in the waking state. To find out if the task modality, the task length, or the task complexity results in prolonged times in lucid dreams, an experiment with three different conditions was conducted. In the first condition, five proficient lucid dreamers spent one to three non-consecutive nights in the sleep laboratory. Participants counted to 10, 20, and 30 in wakefulness and in their lucid dreams. Lucidity and task intervals were time stamped with left-right-left-right eye movements. The same procedure was used for these condition where eight lucid dreamers had to walk 10, 20, or 30 steps. In the third condition, eight lucid dreamers performed a gymnastics routine, which in the waking state lasted the same time as walking 10 steps. Again, we found that performing a motor task in a lucid dream requires more time than in wakefulness. Longer durations in the dream state were present for all three tasks, but significant differences were found only for the tasks with motor activity (walking and gymnastics). However, no difference was found for relative times (no disproportional time effects) and a more complex motor task did not result in more prolonged times. Longer durations in lucid dreams might be related to the lack of muscular feedback or slower neural processing during REM sleep. Future studies should explore factors that might be associated with prolonged durations.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

The Use of New Technology and Occupational Mobility: An Event History Analysis of the Swiss Labor Market

The investigation of the consequences of new technologies has a long standing tradition within economics. Particularly, labor economists are wondering how the introduction of new technologies, e.g. Personal Computers, have shaped labor markets. Former research has concentrated on the question of whether on-the-job use of PCs creates a wage bonus for employees. In this paper, we investigate whether the use of PCs increases employees’ probability of an upward shift in their employment status and whether it reduces the risk of involuntary labor market exits. We do so by applying event history analysis to the Swiss Labor Market Survey, a random sample of 3028 respondents, and by analyzing a Panel sub-sample of 650 respondents conducted recently in Switzerland. Our results show that on-the-job use of PCs was beneficial for employees in the past by increasing their probability of an upward shift by approximately 50%. The analysis also suggests that PC use reduces the risk and duration of unemployment. However, these latter results fail to reach statistical significance.

Complexity and non-linearity in earth surface processes - concepts, methods and applications

Complexity has long been recognized and is increasingly becoming mainstream in geomorphology. However, the relative novelty of various concepts and techniques associated to it means that ambiguity continues to surround complexity. In this commentary, we present and discuss a variety of recent contributions that have the potential to help clarify issues and advance the use of complexity in geomorphology.

Applicative theories for logarithmic complexity classes

We present applicative theories of words corresponding to weak, and especially logarithmic, complexity classes. The theories for the logarithmic hierarchy and alternating logarithmic time formalise function algebras with concatenation recursion as main principle. We present two theories for logarithmic space where the first formalises a new two-sorted algebra which is very similar to Cook and Bellantoni's famous two-sorted algebra B for polynomial time [4]. The second theory describes logarithmic space by formalising concatenation- and sharply bounded recursion. All theories contain the predicates WW representing words, and VV representing temporary inaccessible words. They are inspired by Cantini's theories [6] formalising B.