Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century

The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model (LPX-Bern 1.0). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates, and peatland specific plant functional types. Nitrogen limitation down-regulates average modern net primary productivity over peatlands by about half. Decadal acrotelm-to-catotelm C fluxes vary between −20 and +50 g C m−2 yr−1 over the Holocene. Key model parameters are calibrated with reconstructed peat accumulation rates from peat-core data. The model reproduces the major features of the peat core data and of the observation-based modern circumpolar soil carbon distribution. Results from a set of simulations for possible evolutions of northern peat development and areal extent show that soil C stocks in modern peatlands increased by 365–550 Pg C since the LGM, of which 175–272 Pg C accumulated between 11 and 5 kyr BP. Furthermore, our simulations suggest a persistent C sequestration rate of 35–50 Pg C per 1000 yr in present-day peatlands under current climate conditions, and that this C sink could either sustain or turn towards a source by 2100 AD depending on climate trajectories as projected for different representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Greenland accumulation and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation in ERA-Interim and paleoclimate simulations

Changes in Greenland accumulation and the stability in the relationship between accumulation variability and large-scale circulation are assessed by performing time-slice simulations for the present day, the preindustrial era, the early Holocene, and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with a comprehensive climate model. The stability issue is an important prerequisite for reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation variability based on accumulation or precipitation proxy records from Greenland ice cores. The analysis reveals that the relationship between accumulation variability and large-scale circulation undergoes a significant seasonal cycle. As the contributions of the individual seasons to the annual signal change, annual mean accumulation variability is not necessarily related to the same atmospheric circulation patterns during the different climate states. Interestingly, within a season, local Greenland accumulation variability is indeed linked to a consistent circulation pattern, which is observed for all studied climate periods, even for the LGM. Hence, it would be possible to deduce a reliable reconstruction of seasonal atmospheric variability (e.g., for North Atlantic winters) if an accumulation or precipitation proxy were available that resolves single seasons. We further show that the simulated impacts of orbital forcing and changes in the ice sheet topography on Greenland accumulation exhibit strong spatial differences, emphasizing that accumulation records from different ice core sites regarding both interannual and long-term (centennial to millennial) variability cannot be expected to look alike since they include a distinct local signature. The only uniform signal to external forcing is the strong decrease in Greenland accumulation during glacial (LGM) conditions and an increase associated with the recent rise in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

The Nature of Scientific Proof in the Age of Simulations. Is numerical mimicry a third way of establishing truth?

Is numerical mimicry a third way of establishing truth? Kevin Heng received his M.S. and Ph.D. in astrophysics from the Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics (JILA) and the University of Colorado at Boulder. He joined the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton from 2007 to 2010, first as a Member and later as the Frank & Peggy Taplin Member. From 2010 to 2012 he was a Zwicky Prize Fellow at ETH Z¨urich (the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology). In 2013, he joined the Center for Space and Habitability (CSH) at the University of Bern, Switzerland, as a tenure-track assistant professor, where he leads the Exoplanets and Exoclimes Group. He has worked on, and maintains, a broad range of interests in astrophysics: shocks, extrasolar asteroid belts, planet formation, fluid dynamics, brown dwarfs and exoplanets. He coordinates the Exoclimes Simulation Platform (ESP), an open-source set of theoretical tools designed for studying the basic physics and chemistry of exoplanetary atmospheres and climates (www.exoclime.org). He is involved in the CHEOPS (Characterizing Exoplanet Satellite) space telescope, a mission approved by the European Space Agency (ESA) and led by Switzerland. He spends a fair amount of time humbly learning the lessons gleaned from studying the Earth and Solar System planets, as related to him by atmospheric, climate and planetary scientists. He received a Sigma Xi Grant-in-Aid of Research in 2006

ON THE EXISTENCE OF SHOCKS IN IRRADIATED EXOPLANETARY ATMOSPHERES

Supersonic flows are expected to exist in the atmospheres of irradiated exoplanets, but the question of whether shocks develop lingers. Specifically, it reduces to whether continuous flow in a closed loop may become supersonic and if some portions of the supersonic flow steepen into shocks. We first demonstrate that continuous, supersonic flow may exist in two flavors: isentropic and non-isentropic, with shocks being included in the latter class of solutions. Supersonic flow is a necessary but insufficient condition for shocks to develop. The development of a shock requires the characteristics of neighboring points in a flow to intersect. We demonstrate that the intersection of characteristics may be quantified via the knowledge of the Mach number. Finally, we examine three-dimensional simulations of hot Jovian atmospheres and demonstrate that shock formation is expected to occur mostly on the dayside hemisphere, upstream of the substellar point, because the enhanced temperatures near the substellar point provide a natural pressure barrier for the returning flow. Understanding the role of shocks in irradiated exoplanetary atmospheres is relevant to correctly modeling observables such as the peak offsets of infrared phase curves.

Mechanisms of Ligand–Protein Interaction in Sec-14-like Transporters Investigated by Computer Simulations

We review our recent work on protein-ligand interactions in vitamin transporters of the Sec-14-like protein. Our studies focused on the cellular-retinaldehyde binding protein (CRALBP) and the alpha-tocopherol transfer protein (alpha-TTP). CRALBP is responsible for mobilisation and photo-protection of short-chain cis-retinoids in the dim-light visual cycle or rod photoreceptors. alpha-TTP is a key protein responsible for selection and retention of RRR-alpha-tocopherol, the most active isoform of vitamin E in superior animals. Our simulation studies evidence how subtle chemical variations in the substrate can lead to significant distortion in the structure of the complex, and how these changes can either lead to new protein function, or be used to model engineered protein variants with tailored properties. Finally, we show how integration of computational and experimental results can contribute in synergy to the understanding of fundamental processes at the biomolecular scale.

Towards understanding thermal jet quenching via lattice simulations

After reviewing how simulations employing classical lattice gauge theory permit to test a conjectured Euclideanization property of a light-cone Wilson loop in a thermal non-Abelian plasma, we show how Euclidean data can in turn be used to estimate the transverse collision kernel, C(k⊥), characterizing the broadening of a high-energy jet. First results, based on data produced recently by Panero et al, suggest that C(k⊥) is enhanced over the known NLO result in a soft regime k⊥ < a few T. The shape of k3⊥ C(k⊥) is consistent with a Gaussian at small k⊥.

One-loop SQCD corrections to the decay of top squarks to charm and neutralino in the generic MSSM

In this article we calculate the one-loop supersymmetric QCD (SQCD) corrections to the decay u˜1→cχ˜01 in the minimal supersymmetric standard model with generic flavor structure. This decay mode is phenomenologically important if the mass difference between the lightest squark u˜1 (which is assumed to be mainly stoplike) and the neutralino lightest supersymmetric particle χ˜01 is smaller than the top mass. In such a scenario u˜1→tχ˜01 is kinematically not allowed and searches for u˜1→Wbχ˜01 and u˜1→cχ˜01 are performed. A large decay rate for u˜1→cχ˜01 can weaken the LHC bounds from u˜1→Wbχ01 which are usually obtained under the assumption Br[u˜1→Wbχ01]=100%. We find the SQCD corrections enhance Γ[u˜1→cχ˜01] by approximately 10% if the flavor violation originates from bilinear terms. If flavor violation originates from trilinear terms, the effect can be ±50% or more, depending on the sign of At. We note that connecting a theory of supersymmetry breaking to LHC observables, the shift from the DR¯¯¯¯¯ to the on-shell mass is numerically very important for light stop decays.

Nonequilibrium hysteresis and spin relaxation in the mixed-anisotropy dipolar-coupled spin-glass LiHo0.5Er0.5F4

We present a study of the model spin-glass LiHo0.5Er0.5F4 using simultaneous ac susceptibility, magnetization, and magnetocaloric effect measurements along with small angle neutron scattering (SANS) at sub-Kelvin temperatures. All measured bulk quantities reveal hysteretic behavior when the field is applied along the crystallographic c axis. Furthermore, avalanchelike relaxation is observed in a static field after ramping from the zero-field-cooled state up to 200–300 Oe. SANS measurements are employed to track the microscopic spin reconfiguration throughout both the hysteresis loop and the related relaxation. Comparing the SANS data to inhomogeneous mean-field calculations performed on a box of one million unit cells provides a real-space picture of the spin configuration. We discover that the avalanche is being driven by released Zeeman energy, which heats the sample and creates positive feedback, continuing the avalanche. The combination of SANS and mean-field simulations reveal that the conventional distribution of cluster sizes is replaced by one with a depletion of intermediate cluster sizes for much of the hysteresis loop.

Supersymmetric quantum mechanics on the lattice: I. Loop formulation

Simulations of supersymmetric field theories on the lattice with (spontaneously) broken supersymmetry suffer from a fermion sign problem related to the vanishing of the Witten index. We propose a novel approach which solves this problem in low dimensions by formulating the path integral on the lattice in terms of fermion loops. For N=2 supersymmetric quantum mechanics the loop formulation becomes particularly simple and in this paper – the first in a series of three – we discuss in detail the reformulation of this model in terms of fermionic and bosonic bonds for various lattice discretisations including one which is Q-exact.

Heterologous expression from the human D-Loop in organello

We report the expression of a linear reporter construct in isolated human mitochondria. The reporter construct contained the entire human D-Loop with adjacent tRNA (MTT) genes (mt.15956-647), the human ND1 gene with an in frame GFP gene and adjacent endogenous MTT genes and heterologous rat MTT genes. Natural competence of isolated human mitochondria of HepG2 cells was used to import reporter constructs. The import efficiency of various fluorescently labelled PCR-generated import substrates in the range of 250bp up to 3.5kb was assessed by quantitative PCR and evaluated by confocal microscopy. Heterologous expression of the imported construct was confirmed at RNA level by a circular RNA (cRNA)-RT-PCR assay for the expression of tRNAs and by in organello [α-(32)P]-UTP labelling and subsequent hybridisation to reporter-specific sequences for monitoring mRNA expression. Heterologous expression of rat mitochondrial tRNA(Leu(UUR)) (rMT-TL1) was confirmed by co-/post-transcriptional trinucleotide (CCA) addition. Interestingly, the rat-specific MT-TL1 was correctly processed in isolated human mitochondria at the 3' end, but showed an aberrant 5' end processing. Correct 3' end processing of the heterologous expressed mitochondrial rat tRNA(Ser2) (MT-TS2) was detected. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of genetic manipulation of human mitochondria, providing a tool for characterisation of cis-acting elements of the human mitochondrial genome and for the study of human mitochondrial tRNA processing in organello.

Review of recent results using computational fluid dynamics simulations in patients receiving mechanical assist devices for end-stage heart failure

Many end-stage heart failure patients are not eligible to undergo heart transplantation due to organ shortage, and even those under consideration for transplantation might suffer long waiting periods. A better understanding of the hemodynamic impact of left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) on the cardiovascular system is therefore of great interest. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations give the opportunity to study the hemodynamics in this patient population using clinical imaging data such as computed tomographic angiography. This article reviews a recent study series involving patients with pulsatile and constant-flow LVAD devices in which CFD simulations were used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess blood flow dynamics in the thoracic aorta, demonstrating its potential to enhance the information available from medical imaging.

GoCARB in the Context of an Artificial Pancreas

Background: In an artificial pancreas (AP), the meals are either manually announced or detected and their size estimated from the blood glucose level. Both methods have limitations, which result in suboptimal postprandial glucose control. The GoCARB system is designed to provide the carbohydrate content of meals and is presented within the AP framework. Method: The combined use of GoCARB with a control algorithm is assessed in a series of 12 computer simulations. The simulations are defined according to the type of the control (open or closed loop), the use or not-use of GoCARB and the diabetics’ skills in carbohydrate estimation. Results: For bad estimators without GoCARB, the percentage of the time spent in target range (70-180 mg/dl) during the postprandial period is 22.5% and 66.2% for open and closed loop, respectively. When the GoCARB is used, the corresponding percentages are 99.7% and 99.8%. In case of open loop, the time spent in severe hypoglycemic events (<50 mg/dl) is 33.6% without the GoCARB and is reduced to 0.0% when the GoCARB is used. In case of closed loop, the corresponding percentage is 1.4% without the GoCARB and is reduced to 0.0% with the GoCARB. Conclusion: The use of GoCARB improves the control of postprandial response and glucose profiles especially in the case of open loop. However, the most efficient regulation is achieved by the combined use of the control algorithm and the GoCARB.